Job Cuts are Back

Challenger Job Cuts report is just out and it’s not pretty.  From the company press release:

Falling oil prices contributed to a 68 percent surge in job cuts last month, as US-based employers announced workforce reductions totaling 61,582 in April, up from 36,594 in March, according to the latest report on monthly layoffs released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. The April total was 53 percent higher than the same month a year ago, when 40,298 planned job cuts were recorded. It represents the highest monthly total since May 2012 (61,887) and the highest April total since 2009 (132,590). Year to date, employers have announced 201,796 planned job cuts, which marks a 25 percent increase from the 161,639 layoffs tracked in the first four months of 2014. This is the largest four-month total since 2010.

Stocks look to open around flat.  The real reaction to all this week’s employment data should culminate tomorrow when the monthly jobs report comes in.

Software Time Machines:  Issues for News Junkies

Time we had us another chat about news templates.

I’ve told you often enough about our ongoing evolution of the web-scanning software called Nostracodeus (which is updated daily by Grady over at www.nostracodeus.com) and which we run overnight here, as well.

The idea is simple:  Send software out to scan the news and look for tell-tale words that are harbingers of future events.

We often do very well anticipating this and that because the world doesn’t happen in an entirely chaotic manner; there’s a kind of soft order to how we careen into the future.  It’s found in the analysis of time-indicators in news and social media. 

Take a word like “next week” and scan the web looking only for pages posted in the last day, or two, and which point to next week.  Then go through the web pages and see what next week will look like in a Big Data sense.  It’s really pretty cool.

Except, sometimes there are other forces at play and we often jump the gun by a day, a week, a month, a year, and so forth, because these are most commonly referenced timescales.

This morning, the stock market will be opening flat, but there is an increasing chance of us seeing a big scrap between bulls and bears at the S&P 2,040 level.  I told you on April 6th in our report then that this was in the cards…I apologize for being a month off on  the precise data of the battle.  But here’s how it looked a month ago:

What we were mentioning the past couple of weeks to our Peoplenomics™ subscribers could show up today, or this week, as the S&P 500 does battle royal at the 2,040 level.

My friend Robin Landry and I talked about this at some length when we flew up there to huddle weekend before this one.   Here’s part of what Robin had sent out to his managed account clients:

“Once the MACD has crossed the signal line and begins to drop sharply, in the past it has paid to get defensive and raise cash. The 2040 level is also about to be tested as well as the trend line from the low last October which I referenced above was broken earlier today and then the market rallied into the close to the underside of that trend line.

I call this the Kiss of Death, when it happens, because of the high percentage of times when this happens the decline resumes and accelerates.

There are also a number of other technical indicators, not shown, which are supporting my concern of the potential for a large decline.

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Coping: With Rogue Government(s) Within

I’ve been writing for years about “hidden hand” operations that exist within government.  No, not the Adam Smith invisible hand…something else.  The self-interested sort.

In fact, in our Peoplenomics™ reports, we will often use a fictitious Directorate 153  – which we describe as a vestige  of the Cold War – as a thinking tool.

It has proven itself a useful time and time again.  Perhaps because it helps us remove certain  “blinders” that most people run around wearing.  You may not notice them, but they are there.  They are concepts and beliefs that are not true and which limit your understand of how the real world works.

For example,  say you own a piece of property, and in order to strictly comply with laws, you need to obtain a “permission” from some branch of government.  If you want a zoning variance to build a carport close to your property line, but on your own property, you would likely need a zoning variance.

Zoning is especially fun to use because under Common Law, as long as your use of your own property (King of your own Castle) doesn’t interfere with surrounding castles, then everything should be good.

But that “surrounding castles” idea is where things beget messiness.

If your neighbor happens to be up the hill from your property, they could claim that their castle use (views from a window, say) would be interfered-with by your carport.

In a perfect world, there would be an even-handed application of law and the one best and fair result issued.

But often as not, the results are not fair or precedents evenly applied.  That’s because of “factions” that exist – within government.

In zoning, you might have many – far beyond the so-called two party paradox.  Two common divisions in zoning are pro-growth and pro-environment     Since environmental activism runs hot (presently) decisions on zoning will tend to lean in this direction since. this “faction” has captured a lot of government.

Their tools have been votes, political campaign contributions, agendas, hugged trees, demonstrations, and in the most radical of examples, damage to private property.  Yet, extreme environmentalism is not lumped with terrorism because it has has been working up to operating under “color of law” for the past 100-years.

And this brings us to this pair of important paragraphs in Wikipedia:

Color of law refers to an appearance of legal power to act but which may operate in violation of law. For example, though a police officer acts with the “color of law” authority to arrest someone, if such an arrest is made without probable cause the arrest may actually be in violation of law. In other words, just because something is done with the “color of law” does not mean that the action was lawful. When police act outside their lawful authority and violate the civil rights of a citizen, the FBI is tasked with investigating.[3]

The Supreme Court has interpreted the United States Constitution to construct laws regulating the actions of the law enforcement community. Under “color of law”, it is a crime for one or more persons using power given to him or her by a governmental agency (local, state or federal), to willfully deprive or conspire to deprive another person of any right protected by the Constitution or laws of the United States. Criminal acts under color of law include acts within and beyond the bounds or limits of lawful authority. Off-duty conduct may also be covered if official status is asserted in some manner. Color of law may include public officials and non-governmental employees who are not law enforcement officers such as judges, prosecutors, and private security guards.[4] Furthermore, in many states it is unlawful to falsely impersonate a police officer, a federal officer or employee, or any other public official or to use equipment used by law enforcement officers, such as flashing lights or a fake police badge. Possession of a firearm also can enhance the penalty for false impersonation of a police officer.

And yet we see it all the time.  The whole Civil Asset Forfeiture business is a fine example of government operating under “color of law.”

Does the Navy own the world’s oceans?  No, but they operate under “color of law” in many cases.  Same thing with the FAA:  They don’t own the sky, but they regulate it – arguably under color of law.

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Prepper Deluxe: Time to Get a "Cache Property?"

Like so many kids today, mine have not been family-forming or buying property.  But there’s a set of events a few years out on the horizon that make at least some absolutely minimal fall-back position from Big Cities something to seriously consider.

Yeah, yeah…”Ain’t got money, Dad…” is the usual answer.  So this morning, in preparation for my son coming down here to visit, a preview of the stern lecture that Dad will be issuing, complete with timing of the real estate cycles and so forth, that are involved.

At some point, today’s kids are going to wake up and realize they have been “had” by the Nanny State.  And when the sociopolitical upheaval, accompanied by wholesale mass unemployment greater than even the 1930’s shows up, a Minimal Fall-back Property (MFP) will be the one serious investment most preppers will not have made.

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Trade Collapses! $51.4 Billion Dollar Hole!

Proof of Recovery seen!  (I jest, wake up.)

Want to see what happens when a country spends way more than it exports?

“The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $51.4 billion in March, up $15.5 billion from $35.9 billion in February, revised.

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Coping: Grounded Airplanes, Sheets, & Ham Radios

Ah, where to begin this morning’s ramble of an honest guy who’s just trying to thread the many needles of bureaucracy?

To begin with, our airplane is STILL in annual inspection as we await the FAA approval for trivial variance from an existing airworthiness directive (AD) via an alternate means of compliance (AMOC) which has been approved by an FAA designated engineering representative (DER). 

In the meantime, we have a 2,250 pound maximum gross takeoff  paperweight on our hands…Go ahead, make me an offer…Meanwhile, it’s time to update the medical so that’s on tap for tomorrow.

Speaking of medicals:  A good hour was spent yesterday talking to my doctor and dentist and filling out online forms because one of the FAA medical questions asks for the date of every doctor visit in the past three years and the reason.

Since I get regular 6-month check-ups, I’m trying to figure out WHY anyone would care, for example, that on 10/15/2013 I had a routine check-up?

Hand me that pressure can of whipping cream…oh wait!  There it is!   I can see a couple of FAA bureaucrats arguing the point now: “I think Ure should have had that check-up on the 12th…15th was a questionable pilot decision, I think Fred…”

“Yeah, and did you see this filling on February 20th of last year?  Wasn’t there an inter-departmental memo from Home Land on how people who have fillings on 2/20/2014 may be at elevated risk of something?”

Medical geomancy with a side of Empire Builder, please.  If it’s too early for Eng rish Rit, geomancy is the art of  “divination from configurations seen in a handful of earth thrown on the ground, or by interpreting lines or textures on the ground.”

In a technologically advanced culture (or so we allege) we have graduated from handfuls to dirt to exabyte’s of data pretending it’s different than geomancy.  And it is.

I call it compumancy but others insist calling it  Big Data — makes it more r’spect’ble.  Uh huh…but the fact is the world runs off statistics rather than common sense for two reasons.  No one has any common sense anymore is one.  The other reason doesn’t matter, but it has something to do with selling math books, computers and statistical packages in order to keep the economy afloat.  And pretending we’re an advanced something or other.

Still, with no airplane to fly, and needing nothing (except maybe saving up for lawyer time depending on how long the paperweight sits) that leaves time for lots of tractoring, yard work, and the ham radios  even got fired up last weekend.

Quakes and Ham Band Conditions

Conditions on the ham bands always seem to be especially interesting when earthquakes have been popping off.  My pet (read: nutter) theory is that since the Earth is like a big piezoelectric crystal in some sense.

Take this morning, for instance.  We had a M7.5 – 130km SSW of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea.  Nutjob theory says the 20-meter ham band should be interesting as a result.  Next day or three.

Back to point, I talked to a guy in Jakarta, Indonesia on SSB, and then knocked off a couple of contacts in Morse code down at the bottom of the 20-meter band.  No, SSB is NOT Super Smash Brothers, it’s something else, see here. (Gamers!  Sheesh!)

The fellow in Jakarta was complaining about a very high noise level in the city.  Something on the order of S-9, which is something most people don’t think about.

High noise levels mean something:  There is lots of electronic pollution about…and that means – since all humans are sensitive to electrical interference at some level – that all city-dwellers are slightly nuts.

Every time a read a poll, or don’t like the way a particular election turns out, I flip open a few reference books on the low level impacts of electronic pollution and presto!  Everything is explained.

Try Robert Becker’s The Body Electric: Electromagnetism And The Foundation Of Life.  I trust you know there are people who make special grounding sheets because humans used to sleep literally on the ground.

They are not cheap, especially if you happen to have a king-sized bed, but Amazon sells a Earthing Fitted Sheet Kit, King for about $210-bucks.

OK…why would you spend so much money?

The main reason I can think of is the possibility that having your body in contact with the ground may improve the caliber of your sleep.  And yes, that would improve mental condition, improve dream clarity, and oh, so many other things (like possibly anti-aging) that it would be a very long discussion, indeed.

People often comment that Elaine and I don’t look our ages.  Again, let me hold up another nut-job theory:  I think it has a lot to do with stress – and one kind of low-level stress that you’re not even aware of is the radio spectrum.

There have been tons of books written about the dangers of electricity at a subtle level and again, a good starter is Paul Brodeur’s Currents of Death.

You may not realize it, but there are countries in the world where electronic noise pollution is limited to levels about half what they are in the US. 

I don’t want to tell our expat friend Bruce down in Ecuador that maybe the reason Americans are crazy has to do with too much exposure to electricity.  His competing theory has more to do with sick souls, corruption of values, and what have-you.

Prepper’s Corner:  A Note From Ray

I don’t think my buddy Ray would mind me sharing this with you:  He’s been feeling a bit…

Pissy… The starter on my Deere, which has sounded like it was full of rocks for at least 10 years, finally cranked its last. Reading has yielded the following:
1. The small/garden/utility tractor forums provide a wealth of information.
2. The engine almost MUST be pulled, to replace the starter.
3. The starter should always be rebuilt, rather than replaced. New starters are Mitsus, expensive and subpar, or of Chinese manufacture, and complete junk.
4. The starter is like the old GM Delco starters, and must be precisely shimmed, or will eat the engine’s ring gear.
5.

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A Quickie Weather & Economics Class

Let’s start with the macro picture: The latest solar weather prediction center report on the sunspot cycle is out this morning.

This is one of our all-time favorite cycles to keep an eye on for they do seem to have a fabulous impact on how the economy does.

In fact, Clement Juglar is credited with observing a 7-11 year economic cycle called (of course!) the Juglar Cycle…

The Juglar cycle is a fixed investment cycle of 7 to 11 years identified in 1862 by Clement Juglar.[1] Within the Juglar cycle one can observe oscillations of investments into fixed capital and not just changes in the level of employment of the fixed capital (and respective changes in inventories), as is observed with respect to Kitchin cycles. 2010 research employing spectral analysis confirmed the presence of Juglar cycles in world GDP dynamics.

The other shorter term cycle that gets some press is called the Kitchin cycle, and while officially it’s  40-months, or so, in length…

This cycle is believed to be accounted for by time lags in information movements affecting the decision making of commercial firms. Firms react to the improvement of commercial situation through the increase in output through the full employment of the extent fixed capital assets. As a result, within a certain period of time (ranging between a few months and two years) the market gets ‘flooded’ with commodities whose quantity becomes gradually excessive.

But most of us who have spent a ton of time and dough on learning economics realize at some level that this Kitchin cycle sure seems to highly inter-related to the US four-year presidential cycle.

It is axiomatic that people today are not terribly different than people of 5,000 years ago.  And we’ve still got the same old “money changers out of the temple” problems – it’s just the money-changers now own everything.  Or, wait, is that really a change?

At any rate, there is your sunspot data and we see that things should be cooling down over the next several years and this doesn’t leave much hope for the Global Warming Alarmists who would be worked up over something else, if climate islanding hadn’t come along and had the original data sets not been tampered with, and if governments world-wide were not so desperate for growth that they would monetize social movements and the weather just to hold onto power…

But, like it or not, that’s where George’s view of things sits this morning:  Market should rally at least until Friday when we eventually get this part month’s Employment data. 

Despite what we’re guessing to be about 120,000 layoffs in the oil business, as long as the price of oil remains over $50-bucks, it will cause the implosion in the energy business to happen in slow-enough motion such that the Hillacrats will have a shot at the Kitchin cycle driver next year.

The solar cycle bottom should come around inauguration time for whoever the high bidder to buy the White House is…and then when interest rates begin to rise shortly thereafter, collapse will come a calling when it does.

But not this week.  ADP Jobs Wednesday, Challenger Cuts Thursday, Federal report Friday and it’s all the more reason to hit the snooze alarm and call it good.  Sleep through the small pop at the open this morning, unless it’s going to make you rich, of course…

In the meantime, a blow off peak is likely still in our future and it should be a spectacular one, at that.

Islam Vs. the West Comes to Texas

Two gunmen were killed in Garland, Texas (Dallas area for outsiders) when they drove up to an anti-Muslim cartoon contest and opened fire on a security guard.  They were immediately shot and killed.

The security guard suffered an ankle wound, leading us to wonder if the perps were from Texas, at all.

For details as released twit @garlandtxgov.

Our Nostracodeus Big Data projects suggests the possibility of a second attack, only this one might be in Europe figures chief data slicer & dicer Grady…

On or about May 24th, we’ll be watching for something to do with the attack on the French cartoon magazine. (Attack in Texas May 5) There is still potential for another.

Among other things, we use word frequency analysis and something called the Fine Structure Constant (FSC) in the work.  Among other things, we see an outline of a cycle length of 130-145 days between mass murders/rampage killings.

Yeah, I know… “Stick with watching TV, or something, George…”

No thanks.  The future matters and so, therefore, should macro data leading into it, which gets us to…

Global Coastal Event This May?

I know we didn’t get one as predicted a few years back, but as Ure’s theorem of Big Data and the Future holds, if an event is SUPER BIG, we would not be surprised to hear or see it in data years in advance.

So with that in mind, click over and read this post on GLP which is mighty interesting under the heading “Global Coastal Event on May 28, 2015 Cientific study + Nostradamus.” (Their spelling, not mine – for a change.)

I’ve asked G.A. Stewart, author of “Nostradamus and the Age of Desolation” to have a look at the claims and give us a read on them… more when I hear back.

Hasn’t shown up in our www.nostracodeus.com work, or for that matter, in the www.nationaldreamcenter.com data either, so far as I know.  But if things start to pop, I will of course pass on links.

But the recent increase in quakes has me drawing lines of global earthquake views with the idea of anticipating where the next large magnitude temblors will be… Crude arrows show possible plate directionals…

Timing of this?  Well, G.A.

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Coping: With Pests as Summer Approaching

Down to the joys of summer, at least when the sweat dries off, around here.

The humming birds were humming like the little guy to the right, the occasional piercing pain of sinuses acting up from a ton of mowing and such.

And for those wondering, the June bugs were starting to decline in number down at the hangar where our old airplane is still being held hostage by paperwork with the FAA.

Several people wanted to know, however, if putting down $30+ worth of peppermint oil would actually repel the June bugs.

I don’t know about other varieties of June bugs, but the ones in our area don’t seem to care about a) peppermint oil, rosemary oil, garlic, or that $25 “ultrasonic pest repeller.”

The only way to get rid of June Bugs seems to be a) blowing them out with the leaf blower.  And b) making sure next year to get the outside security light at the hangar turned off the first of March so they won’t be attracted to the light source.

More than anything, light is what drives the JB’s so a string of white LEDs will be installed in the grass next year, as well.  But, in the meantime, care to guess which summertime bit of furniture I’ve got my eyes on?

Meantime, I’m trying to figure out what the bird was I heard Saturday while burning a pile of leaves and pine needles in the front yard.  It sounded so much like water in a brook that I actually turned around to look at the deer watering pond to see what it was.

Nothing there (of course) but I’ve spent a lot of time on the property and this was the first one that I heard which was a got-cha.

Here We Are – Come Save Us

Despite the yard work this weekend, I can hardly wait for the next round of “Californicated” to go viral. 

We’ve been covering their drought mess for a long time – and I was just reading how California is throwing money at the drought by (among other things) paying businesses $3 bucks a square foot to put in drought tolerant plants.

Let me help you run some numbers:  Let’s pretend (IRS insists we do) that all of Ure’s little enterprises constitute a business.  And let’s also remember 43,560 square feet per acre and we sit out here in the woods on 28.8 of them.

If I could get someone to pay be $3 a square foot, even after backing out the house and shop/off buildings, we’d still be able to sop up $3.6 million dollars.

Hell, with that kind of ROI we would move somewhere else.

Please, California, talk to Texas about this genius-level idea!  Come Save Us!

(The fact that even a third-grader knows that as soon as you strip off all the green, you lose vertical air movement, and you’ve built yourself a dandy new heat island –  and that’s how the Sahara works.  But don’t think common sense…this is California’s version of burning down the rain forest, except they’re doing it with taxpayer money, as well… And then to be able to cry poor on top of that, OMG these people are what?)

Dumb, Dumber, and Jerry Brown followers.

Our forecast of drought migration is still on the table.  California is the New Dust Bowl – something that should become apparent in the 2016-2017 timeframe.  Just like the last Depression Dust Bowl.

The real first arrival of displacement didn’t become obvious until summer of 1930, but after that it was all down hill for three waves of depressing dust.

If California gets a respite, don’t go bidding up prices, too far:  These things come in macro waves and doubling down after the first wave would be a fool’s errand.

Still, the Golden Brown state is full enough of fools, so ya’ll have fun.

WoWW:  The “Dead Cat Dream”

World of Woo-Woo time:  I’ve told you before about little snips of the future that get wrapped up into my dreams.  Sometimes, the snips of dreams have Big Messages in them – like the January dream about the big earthquake in April (check Nepal). 

Other times, they hold contest that’s of a warning nature.  Like the dream about road closure due to a fatal accident, traffic being re-routed, and orange cones for lane closures – hours before it actually happened.

Fast forward to Friday night/Saturday morning.  Awoke at 2:18 AM with a terrible dream about our cat Zeus.  Had a strong mental picture of a piece of “equipment” falling on him and killing him.

Got up at the usual time, fed the cat (who was just fine) and thought “Stupid George:  See the cat was fine…”

Then, just a few hours later, about 9 AM, I headed to the hangar and as I was approaching the turn onto the Farm to Market road we live off,, here was a freshly dead young cat.

Siamese, and quite remarkably, this was the same cat Elaine and I had considered (however briefly) pulling over the car to rescue a week earlier when we had gone into town for lunch.  We discussed at the time how it had the look of a feral cat (there were now homes around and it looked like another “dumper” – which is what city folks do when they are irresponsible pet owners.

Felt kinda bummed out about it..and it didn’t take but a few minutes to recall the conversation with Elaine and wonder about the dream less than 8-hours earlier.  Dead cat – and now this – a real genuine dead cat.

Ever since then, I have been asking myself how to score this one.  The number of dreams in which a cat had died (and this is over 66+ years, mind you) is exactly zero.

And to discover a cat we didn’t rescue, dead, immediately thereafter; well is that coincidence or something else?

WoWW II

By the way, I don’t remember if I share this update with you about the lady who had the disappearing gun night-vision scope problem…from a gun safe?

….hahahahaha..(manic laughter)-my husband , who found his mysterious, long lost night- vision scope last week, just came out on the back porch (l am sitting here , storm spotting) to show me the latest “gift-from-the-gun-safe”……a HUGE military-type knife/machete – serrated carbon steel, and a nice heavy sheath !!?? …..never saw it before, and it’s kind of hard to miss!! So what is the effing message here? : “DANGER, Will Robinson” ? or….” you may need this defensive stuff soon”? or… “come on thru, guys-we showed you the damn portal already”?… or “pay attention because TSIATHTF” ?? (… ….

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An Alternative View of the Future

Think things are headed for a quick flush down the old crapper?

Think again.

Although doom porn sells, we take off the brown colorized glasses and put on the rose ones for a while this morning,  With it will come a description of a future which, although it seems unlikely today, could make a whole lot of doom peddlers look mighty damn stupid.

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Markets: Mayday, Mayday

“Sell in May and go away” shouldn’t be tested until next week. But, already we have seen some of the early quitters toss in the towel. My friend Robin Landry, who’s been tracking markets for 38-years now, managing private accounts up in the 9 or 10-figure area, called Thursday to announce we had broken support at the S&P 2,090 level. He’s expecting the market to “kiss the underside” of support today but then a roll down to the 2,040 level is where things will get interesting. In fact, it’s such an interesting level that I told you about it in my April 6th column:

Coping: Dear FAA – See Baltimore

I’m in a rotten mood this morning.

As you know, our old airplane has been laid up for annual inspection while we await an approval to use a slightly different specialized rivet replacement than one called for in an old airworthiness directive on our airplane.  A bigger rivet replacement than required.

Fine.

So, I hire the designated engineering representative (a busy fellow) and he gets the application in last week.  And then Yesterday we hear that the FAA can’t accept the application by my designated engineer and that it has to be filed by me.

WTF?

Now, I don’t know if the FAA has a big problem with people running around paying consulting engineers (in advance) to file minutia like this  oversize rivet replacement request (the difference in bolt sizes is measured in mere thousandths) but it has started to take on the feel/vibe of a government bureaucracy playing either “How important we are” or simply  “running the clock.”

In a genuinely customer-service oriented group, if an application came in that should have gone to a different person, it would have been forwarded to the “right” person and promptly addressed.  Same day.

It’d be like getting in the wrong line at McDonalds.  Instead of saying “She’ll help you in the next line over”  and you’d have your burger in 2-minutes, THIS is the administrative equivalent of saying “Your engineer got you in the wrong line.  You have to go home and don’t come back until next week.  In the meantime, we won’t do anything on your behalf because you have to eat here and we don’t care. If you come back next week we will deal with your hamburger request then….if we’re not on vacation, or away at a meeting.”

If McDonalds had that kind of attitude, they’d be out of business.  But government agencies aren’t like that.

No, instead, the FAA kicks it back to the engineer, who punts to mechanic, who emails to me, but since his email didn’t forward right, I have to bug the (busy) engineer…and so Mr. Ure is losing patience.

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The Date-less Fed, Brain-Dead Country

If you’re wondering why the market blew through 75-points yesterday, you don’t have but one click to go to find the answer:  The Fed Rate decision which can be read (if you’re a little too amped for your own good) over here.  The highlighted parts below tell it all:

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Don’t look now, but that’s FedSpeak (depending on how well you did in our “Read Between the Lines Class”) for “No rate hike in sight, deflation has scared the hell out of us.”

It’s just they can’t say that. 

So instead they mumble, use high falutin wordsmithing and don’t have a clue.  Except, the now linked central bank backrooms have it all wired, of course…

It may take a while to get organized, but “Sell in May and Go Away” is just a day away and there’s a fair chance that by June, the 10 year will be lower, the Dow will be lower, we will finally get our goal line stand at S&P 2,040, and gold should be back down to $1,150.

That is, if there isn’t something else coming in the way of a major distraction to keep the economic picture from being front and center.

A couple of press releases to chew on this morning:  Bureau of Economic Fairytales first:

“Personal income increased $6.2 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $1.6 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in March, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $53.4 billion, or 0.4 percent. In February, personal income increased $66.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, DPI increased $61.2 billion, or 0.5 percent, and PCE increased $20.8 billion, or 0.2 percent, based on revised estimates.

(blah, blah, blah till we get to the punch line…)

Personal saving — DPI less personal outlays — was $702.6 billion in March, compared with $758.6 billion in February. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 5.3 percent in March, compared with 5.7 percent in February.

And I’m the Pope.  Next?…La Bore Department…

“Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending March 2015, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) increased 0.7 percent, and benefits (which make up the remaining 30 percent of compensation) increased 0.6 percent.

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Coping: Dreams and the Showdown in the Afterlife

We’ve had bits and pieces of this discussion before:  You remember that our early work on dreams was embodied in a project called the National Dream Center, which Chris McCleary has picked up and expanded at the www.nationaldreamcenter.com site and which continues to sniff and whiff major news events in advance… You may also recall that I have shared a lot of interesting dream experiences, including dreams that can be interpreted as having major precognitive aspects to them.  A recent example was the January 13th dream about a coming major (west coast) earthquake in April.  The specifics were wrong, but with 4,000 dead (or whatever the toll is this morning), I’d say that’s pretty interesting.

Likewise, before the Offshore Horizon drilling platform blowout and fire, I posted a precognitive dream about that one a full 18-hours before the event.  Posted at 8 AM, rig problems showed up about 10 PM that night. Then there was the dream about a closed road, detour, and traffic signs due to an accident – dreamed at 8:30 Arizona time and then “lived out” by Elaine and I on a trip to visit one of her boys.  To say I get lots of precognitive content (and occasionally  “teaching material”) from Dreamland is an understatement. It may also be of interest that I’ve got a novel about 3/4th’s written called DreamOver which goes into the mechanics of how Dreamland seems to work. When a strongly precognitive dream comes along (like one I had from last night, which we’ll get to in a moment) there’s a certain quality to the dream which unmistakable for its clarity and vividness of detail. The most interesting aspect of the Dreamland connection, is that it is much more accessible than people realize.  Just yesterday, in popped this email which proves the point:

“A small data point for your dream research: This morning, before waking, I had a dream that I was on stage in a large indoor stadium full of people. It was odd, because most of my dreams involve few, if any, people. When I checked my email, I had dozens of new followers and “skulls” on hackaday.io. Today, my project was featured on the hackaday blog: http://hackaday.com/2015/04/29/hackaday-prize-entry-ground-penetrating-radar/ fwiw,  glenn

Yes,  it’s pretty darn interesting how the dream states work…now we’re ready to get into a possible reason why dreams work as they do.  Fast forward into the dream I had last night which was spectacular and possibly meaningful – which is why I share it this morning….

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A man and woman of indeterminate age was on a car trip through the western states.  They had been through mountains, had stayed at several resorts, including at least one which was a casino.

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