(From within the Iowa-Wisconsin-Illinois Triangle) We have arrived for the annual assembly of “good looking Beeches” here west of Chicago with the market looking pretty good (maybe through today and early next week) but going into options expiration, we expect things will hit the crapper.
Maybe it will be more Glencore revelations or some other foundation-shaker, but we still hold to the view that the S&P will drop below the 1,800 level within the next two’ish months. After that, the Rally Before the End ought to be here.
It is likely to be your last chance to prep for Depression II. Like 2009, but worse, by the look of it and we all know how much fund that was.
Other than the employment numbers being a driver, another factor which we have been pounding on is the problem of long wave economic “trough wars.”
You see, in these 40-90-year economic long waves – and there’s more to it than the Kondratieff Wave – wars tend to cluster around the peaks of and valleys of economic activity.
There are only three “powers” in the world who have to be eyed in the same context as the aggressor Germany was in WW II when it comes to kicking off WW III.
One is China – which is building an island in the South China Sea to project a bit of power around itself, but also we notice that Chinese war ships have come into the Syrian theater, as well.
That Russia has been operating out of the naval facilities at Tartus has been an on-going talking point for me, for several years when this matter of “Where does the War come from?” arises.
In a way, the pending Russian and Chinese operation is vastly different from the pre-WW II alliances between Germany, Italy, and Japan.
Unlike the Germans, the Russians are mostly self-sufficient should those choose to be – and the Chinese have been better students of warfare than the Italians, without a doubt. Sun Tzu is only one example. When a nation has 2,500 years of history, the style of thinking becomes a bit different.
Maybe I worry too much (almost certainly true) but I would summarize the thinking processes of these potential antagonists by simply looking at the most popular “board games” of the parties.
Here in the USA, of course, the two most widely played games among the young (*not electronic) would be checkers and Monopoly. Good games and a fair bit of fun.
When comes to articulating mental acuity and learning the arts of advanced thinking, however, seems to me the Russian idolatry of chess speaks volumes.
The Chinese may (or may not) actually play Chinese checkers, but that game is more instructive in many ways than the single-front American board games.
On the other hand, there may be a migration path from Monopoly to the White House, at least if Donald Trump continues his ways.
As often stated, I figure we have on the low side 18-months more before this phase of rally and market recovery will end. Ideally early 2017.
That’s time when America could be regrouping and rethinking how we “wage peace.” But the reality is we don’t do that well. We tend to go waging peace that turns into projectiles and bases…but haven’t I warned you “The Magic of America is that we monetize EVERYTHING”??
How closely the Chinese will interoperate with the Russians is not clear. Reports this week have been fuzzy at best, although this summer of things is pretty good
A note from our oak-leaf cluster source, warhammer points out something else of interest:
George,
Some claim the recently announced Russian draft of 150,000 men is a mere coincidence, happening just as Russia begins prosecuting attacks against Syrian Rebels and/or ISIS.
I don’t believe in coincidence. That’s a word often used when we can’t see who’s pulling the strings from behind the curtain.