TL;DR: Empire State data drops, retail may get a tariff-driven bump, and wage growth isn’t “soft” so much as shadow-boxing with inflation. Geopoliics grinds toward expanding war. Personal productivity and how to stall are covered. Big Picture Economics Note: Peoplenomics.com subscribers are reminded I posted a special update on Sunday, Click here to access. Or, here … Read More
A special Peoplenomics subscribers only report ahead of this week’s Fed FOMC. Markets today are running hot when every major cycle in the book says they should be cooling. That’s not just a quirk of data — it’s a setup we’ve only seen a handful of times in the last century, and none of them … Read More
TL;DR: Sharpening is one of those simple-but-deep shop skills that separate hacks from craftsmen. Everything you build boils down to four riffs — measure, cut, join, finish — and cutting only works when the tool’s sharp. Angles matter, whether it’s 15° on a sushi knife or 30° on an axe. Grinders and belts speed the … Read More
Few economic reports really scare the hell out of us. But there was one report that shocked us deeply. So deeply, in fact, that we will deconstruct today for subscribers. The reason? Well, here’s a good starting point: Between Q1 of 2025 and Q2—the period of this report—about 70 percent of the financial gains in … Read More
TL;DR: Markets pause after a stretch of highs, Fed week looms, Europe wobbles toward war, Kirk shooter still loose now reported in custody — world’s still fukt. Around the Ranch? Out-plan, out-maneuver, live better while others whine. Fish Wrap, Huh? Come on, buddy. Even my AI stack knows this one by heart: ““Fish wrap Friday” is … Read More
We usually refresh this replay chart only twice a week at Peoplenomics.com, but with the Fed decision looming it seems worth an extra look. Think of it as a framework for weighing whether today’s rally is strength—or the kind of blow-off pattern history has warned us about. ~Ure
The manic/stupid rally in the market today was incomprehensible to me. I put on the data hat. Charlie Kirk gets killed – killer gets away (only for now) Shit for CPI – and the EU held rates not expecting inflation to pass until 2027. OK, why the rally? In some FU/screwy way did the Kirk … Read More
TL;DR: Markets watch CPI for Fed moves as the EU likely holds; Ure sees signals in Kirk’s shooting and discovers plain kitchen pepper beats pricey supplements. CPI – Fed Impact? – UI Data – EU Hold? Just in: “The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis … Read More
Today Peoplenomics digs into “The Memory Machine “with a fresh chapter from my coming book on Mind Amplifiers. We start where modern recall really began: those early free-form text tools (think MemoryMate and AskSam) that let mere mortals mass-index messy notes and testimony long before “AI” was a glint in Silicon Valley’s eye. From there, … Read More
TL;DR: Fed faces three problems this week: NFIB optimism may clash spending, while PPI and CPI inflation risks rise. Rally to chill? Plus a lesson in Ure family wisdom. Three Problems for the Fed Common Wisdom on the street is that the Fed will lower on the 17th by at least a quarter and maybe … Read More
TL;DR: Markets may rally briefly, but Fed rate cuts won’t fix the long slide in U.S. manufacturing. IPO hype won’t close the China gap. Learning collectives could. Modest Rally – But Then? We anticipate a modest rally today. Not likely to last, though. That’s because a week from Wednesday the Fed will likely drop rates … Read More
Tl;DR: Our spicey old Saturday Gourmet column is back for an occasional peek – meeting the ShopTalk mindset and fascination with “Having the right tools.” You see, having the right pan is like having the right saw blade — sure, you can hack it out, but why not make it smooth, easy, and a little … Read More
Bad enough America was sold-out by the rich when Job-Jacking took hold and industry moved to least-cost labor centers. Today it’s even worse. As the market put on a rally in the face of terrible job numbers, then fell back to earth by the close. This morning, some serious bile on that – after which … Read More