The mind of the public is not on eartth-shaking economic news. Evidenced by the top six searches on Google in the past day have been football-related.
So being out of touch, and a bit greedier, we’ll begin with the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing outlook:
“The headline general business conditions index held steady at 3.5. New orders were also little changed, while shipments grew modestly. Delivery times were somewhat shorter, and inventories held steady. Employment continued to expand, though the average workweek was unchanged. Input price increases continued to slow, and selling prices increased slightly. Optimism about the six-month outlook picked up, and capital spending plans were notably stronger. “
Along with the futures being up for the markets (Santa Rally may continue!) we also notice that Bitcoins were still holding by a thread above $7,000. Peoplenomics readers already know our outlook is for BTCs to sink under $4,000 next year. Grinch that I am.
Here’s how the future’s forecast the day 90 minutes ahead of the opening:
Like the old Johnny Cash song (“I walk the line…”).
Of course this chart is not the Dow, or S&P, nor the techs: It’s our own conglomeration of eyeing markets as a big lump (such as you might step in, walking a pasture…). There’s just so much inter-market moving of money, seems the only way to make sense of it all is to count total dollars to see where that leads.
In this case, we MAY be in the final drive higher, although it COULD last into early-to-mid January. Because under usual conditions, fifth waves are bigger than Wave 1’s – which you can eyeball on the lower left of said chart.
However, since there are so many “footballs” in the air what with impeachment, a spy war with the Chinese, Boeing may “axe the MAX,” and the Brits are STILL not all-in with Brexit, a fifth wave failure globally is not off anyone’s table.
Keep an eye out for straws, camels, and chiropractors.
The Fed’s Repo Depot isn’t putting any lumps in stockings today by, promising lots of liquidity going into year-end. Just to prove it, this morning repo’s and reverse repo’s totally $ 86.4 -billion. Admittedly though, that’s just a few weeks wages for high rollers like us, right?
We’ve given up trying to offer any penetrating insights here. Since we have (so far correctly) held from the beginning, this is mainly an HRC/DNC attempt to overturn the 2016 election outcome , more than anything else. Dennis what’s-his-name wants to call four witnesses in the Senate trial.
The fact that Joe Biden is leading on the democrat side (along with BS…(bummer sanders) tells me 24% of democrats have no business voting. It’s one thing to “hate Trump” but it’s another to completely overlook the crookedness of Biden’s son getting into the Big Bucks with Burisma for nothing other than the “daddy connection.”
Not that all democrats are unworthy. A few can still fall back on the facts. Refer to how “Representative Jeff Van Drew, Anti-Impeachment Democrat, Plans to Switch Parties ” in the NY Times today.
Also on the Stump: We wonder how much this cost Mike Bloomberg: “Bloomberg pulling support away from Biden, CBS News poll finds.”
Here at the ranch, Zeus the Cat is planning to open a for-sale polling operation since he doesn’t like all the manual labor involved in mousing… He figures there’s a lot of money to be made with the right mix of pussy and politics. “Here? In America?” Why, the insinuation shocks me to the core.
Communicable Mental Disease
Watching the whole ‘peachment debacle raises a very interesting question: Given that we have had 3-1/2 years of polarization and hate evolving in the country, have you ever wondered how the world would be doing today without the impeachment distraction and accompanying hate?
I ask because I’ve been noticing a “mirrored” polarization in mental health literature on the good & bad of social media.
A couple of years back (2016) many of the journals were “selling” the idea that “supportive social media” contacts were a good way to help others cope with mental illness. Not sure where you find those, other than immediate family, though.
However, more recently (and objectively as we see it) papers like “Revolution in the making? Social media effects across the globe” have been appearing.
We’ve called this the evolution of Digital Mob Rule and we can already see the effects: the Great Firewall of China and their closely-related social scoring programs. In Europe, the Brussel-pricks are out to “fine the world” for violation of their self-important GDPR regulations – which is why we have that stupid “cookie notice” when you visit this site.
What the EU may not realize is that their runaway urge (that all socialists get) to over-regulate everything will eventually lead to a further fracturing of the Internet. You can bet if we controlled a global-reach search engine, we’d consider blocking access to Europeans. Let ’em go back to the dark ages and take their hybrid socialism with ’em…
My point? No one seems to be running with the issue I laid out in Broken Web back in 2012. The Internet is still broken, social media is still communicating lies and misdirection. Retweeting using software bots is wild as ever, and data hacks are coming to the fore almost weekly. Like Pensacola being held hostage by ransomeware last week.
An interesting ponder, and not one we can answer this morning. But watching the herd and how they search, it’s hard not to worry about the future. The one where everyone is nuts.
Except you and me. (Though not certain of you…). Where were we? Oh yeah…herd metrics. Let’s dive back into it:
Trend Search #7
Linda Ronstadt was among the Kennedy Center Honorees this year and was the 7th biggest search on Google for a while. Refer to her battle with Parkinson’s in “Linda Ronstadt’s Parkinson’s Illness & Health Update 12/15/2019” for details.
Searches #8 and #9 were again football. But, number 10 was about John Frusciante’s rejoining the Red Hot Chili Peppers.. While it’s no doubt an economic event for him, it’s not for us, so we’ll just wander on to the minutia hitting the wires…
Studied to Death: The UK seems to be making sh*t up in order to slow their getting out from under the Brtssels. “General election 2019: Boris Johnson’s Brexit bill planned for Friday.” We’ll believe it when it happens and not a minute sooner. Governments can’t stand being told to do things by their constituents. (We have the same issues here, of course…)
A different sort of year-ender in the Moscow Times: The 5 Biggest Russian Headlines of 2019. Not sure we even had five top stories this year. Damn near totally forgettable, as we see it. One blah after another.
Gender Marketing is alive and well as we infer you to Fortune’s take in ‘Wrong Decision’: Hallmark Channel Reinstates Commercial Featuring Two Women Kissing.
Looking ahead to tomorrow? Housing starts and the Fed’s Industrial Production and Factory Utilization.
I know that’ll keep you up tonight, sitting on the edge of your chair. Oughta see someone about that.
White Christmas Odds: Like to thank the National Weather Service for laying out the odds with 10-days to roll:
A check of the area here suggests a 60-70F high, lots of sun, and lows around 40, or so.
National Bank of Dad reports the check run will be done Friday and mailed Saturday. So says sec-treasurer and co-CEO Elaine…
Write when you get rich, (or if it snows)