NY Fed Outlook, Futures Play Santa

The mind of the public is not on eartth-shaking economic news.  Evidenced by the top six searches on Google in the past day have been football-related.

So being out of touch, and a bit greedier, we’ll begin with the  NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing outlook:

The headline general business conditions index held steady at 3.5. New orders were also little changed, while shipments grew modestly. Delivery times were somewhat shorter, and inventories held steady. Employment continued to expand, though the average workweek was unchanged. Input price increases continued to slow, and selling prices increased slightly. Optimism about the six-month outlook picked up, and capital spending plans were notably stronger.

Along with the futures being up for the markets (Santa Rally may continue!) we also notice that Bitcoins were still holding by a thread above $7,000.   Peoplenomics readers already know our outlook is for BTCs to sink under $4,000 next year.  Grinch that I am.

Here’s how the future’s forecast the day 90 minutes ahead of the opening:

Like the old Johnny Cash song (“I walk the line…”).

Of course this chart is not the Dow, or S&P, nor the techs:  It’s our own  conglomeration of eyeing markets as a big lump (such as you might step in, walking a pasture…).  There’s just so much inter-market moving of money, seems the only way to make sense of it all is to count total dollars to see where that leads.

In this case, we MAY be in the final drive higher, although it COULD last into early-to-mid January.  Because under usual conditions, fifth waves are bigger than Wave 1’s – which you can eyeball on the lower left of said chart.

However, since there are so many “footballs” in the air what with impeachment, a spy war with the Chinese, Boeing may “axe the MAX,”  and the Brits are STILL not all-in with Brexit, a fifth wave failure globally is not off anyone’s table.

Keep an eye out for straws, camels, and chiropractors.

The Fed’s Repo Depot isn’t putting any lumps in stockings today by, promising lots of liquidity going into year-end.  Just to prove it, this morning repo’s and reverse repo’s totally $ 86.4 -billion.  Admittedly though, that’s just a few weeks wages for high rollers like us, right?


We’ve given up trying to offer any penetrating insights here.  Since we have (so far correctly) held from the beginning, this is mainly an HRC/DNC attempt to overturn the 2016 election outcome , more than anything else.  Dennis what’s-his-name wants to call four witnesses in the Senate trial.

The fact that Joe Biden is leading on the democrat side (along with BS…(bummer sanders) tells me 24% of democrats have no business voting.  It’s one thing to “hate Trump” but it’s another to completely overlook the crookedness of Biden’s son getting into the Big Bucks with  Burisma for nothing other than the “daddy connection.”

Not that all democrats are unworthy.  A few can still fall back on the facts.  Refer to how “Representative Jeff Van Drew, Anti-Impeachment Democrat, Plans to Switch Parties ” in the NY Times today.

Also on the Stump:  We wonder how much this cost Mike Bloomberg:  “Bloomberg pulling support away from Biden, CBS News poll finds.”

Here at the ranch, Zeus the Cat is planning to open a for-sale polling operation since he doesn’t like all the manual labor involved in mousing…  He figures there’s a lot of money to be made with the right mix of pussy and politics.  “Here?  In America?”  Why, the insinuation shocks me to the core.

Communicable Mental Disease

Watching the whole ‘peachment debacle raises a very interesting question:  Given that we have had 3-1/2 years of polarization and hate evolving in the country, have you ever wondered how the world would be doing today without the impeachment  distraction and accompanying hate?

I ask because I’ve been noticing a “mirrored” polarization in mental health literature on the good & bad of social media.

A couple of years back (2016) many of the journals were “selling” the idea that “supportive social media” contacts were a good way to help others cope with mental illness.  Not sure where you find those, other than immediate family, though.

However, more recently (and objectively as we see it) papers like “Revolution in the making? Social media effects across the globe” have been appearing.

We’ve called this the evolution of Digital Mob Rule and we can already see the effects: the Great Firewall of China and their closely-related social scoring programs.  In Europe, the Brussel-pricks are out to “fine the world” for violation of their self-important GDPR regulations – which is why we have that stupid “cookie notice” when you visit this site.

What the EU may not realize is that their runaway urge (that all socialists get) to over-regulate everything will eventually lead to a further fracturing of the Internet.  You can bet if we controlled a global-reach search engine, we’d consider blocking access to Europeans.  Let ’em go back to the dark ages and take their hybrid socialism with ’em…

My point?  No one seems to be running with the issue I laid out in Broken Web back in 2012.  The Internet is still broken, social media is still communicating lies and misdirection.  Retweeting using software bots is wild as ever, and data hacks are coming to the fore almost weekly.  Like Pensacola being held hostage by ransomeware last week.

An interesting ponder, and not one we can answer this morning.  But watching the herd and how they search, it’s hard not to worry about the future.  The one where everyone is nuts.

Except you and me.  (Though not certain of you…).  Where were we?  Oh yeah…herd metrics.  Let’s dive back into it:

Trend Search #7

Linda Ronstadt was among the Kennedy Center Honorees this year and was the 7th biggest search on Google for a while.  Refer to her battle with Parkinson’s in “Linda Ronstadt’s Parkinson’s Illness & Health Update 12/15/2019” for details.

Searches #8 and #9 were again football.  But, number 10 was about John Frusciante’s rejoining the Red Hot Chili Peppers..  While it’s no doubt an economic event for him, it’s not for us, so we’ll just wander on to the minutia hitting the wires…

RSS Snags

Studied to Death:  The UK seems to be making sh*t up in order to slow their getting out from under the Brtssels.  “General election 2019: Boris Johnson’s Brexit bill planned for Friday.”  We’ll believe it when it happens and not a minute sooner.  Governments can’t  stand being told to do things by their constituents.  (We have the same issues here, of course…)

A different sort of year-ender in the  Moscow Times: The 5 Biggest Russian Headlines of 2019.  Not sure we even  had five top stories this year.  Damn near totally forgettable, as we see it.  One blah after another.

Gender Marketing is alive and well as we infer you to  Fortune’s take in ‘Wrong Decision’: Hallmark Channel Reinstates Commercial Featuring Two Women Kissing.

Looking ahead to tomorrow? Housing starts and the Fed’s Industrial Production and Factory Utilization.

I know that’ll keep you up tonight, sitting on the edge of your chair.  Oughta see someone about that.

White Christmas Odds:  Like to thank the National Weather Service for laying out the odds with 10-days to roll:

A check of the area here suggests a 60-70F high, lots of sun, and lows around 40, or so.

National Bank of Dad reports the check run will be done Friday and mailed Saturday.  So says sec-treasurer and co-CEO Elaine…

Write when you get rich, (or if it snows)


45 thoughts on “NY Fed Outlook, Futures Play Santa”

  1. Hot Dam G!

    As long as U R cutting Christmas checks this Friday – hows about U cut a lil somthinsomthin off for the East Coast Deplorable? U know spending the winter cold months in Central America – Caribbean Coast is not cheap..my fav rum Big Titty Rum/Belize costs a little bit more than ECD’s ole standby One Barrel. Dont wanna be a Grinchygrinchgrinch – do u?

    • One Barrel – – Great stuff! Now sipping on Centenario 20 or 25 year (Cost Rica) and Zacapa 23 year old (Guatmala). Nice squeeze of lime, from the backyard lime, tree tops it off. Cheers to all and a Merry Christmas.

  2. Now Trump wants to control the polls. Especially since his own state run media…Fox just released a poll that refutes his assertions.

    The poll comes after Trump lashed out at his favorite news channel over the weekend and Tweeted… “trying sooo hard to be politically correct” after it decided to interview his political foes, including Rep. Adam Schiff, leader of the impeachment process in Congress.

    Do you ever watch CNN Don? They always has opposing views on every day. Chris Cuomo does it every night with Cuomo’s Court and other segments. You don’t hear the left complaining. It’s always good to hear both sides. But instead T-Rump tweets…

    “Both Commiecast MSNBC & Fake News CNN are watching their Ratings TANK,” he said on Twitter. “Don’t know why @FoxNews wants to be more like them? They’ll all die together as other outlets take their place. Only pro Trump Fox shows do well. Rest are nothing.”

    Only pro Trump Fox News Shows Do well…huh…Spoken like a true fascist. Heil Trump.

    I wrote yesterday about the psychology of Right wing media…here it is again and it’s why movies like Bombshell are already pure-booked as sold out in theaters and shows like Apple TV’s Morning Show are getting critical acclaim. Trump is ripping the pages right out of this model and making it his platform

    Jeff Giesea, a consultant who has worked with venture capitalist Peter Thiel and the Koch brothers, is a self-described “memetics” expert. During the 2016 campaign, he joined with men’s rights agitator Mike Cernovich to organize MAGA3X, a grassroots army of online trolls who worked to meme Trump to the White House. The effort produced tens of thousands of social media accounts, all working in concert to promote Trump, with a heavy emphasis on iconography. They even created a flash-mob meme generator to make it easy for Trump supporters to hook up in real life.
    Giesea has long argued that memes are such a powerful tool they should be used as cyberwarfare to combat propaganda from ISIS and other foreign threats. In 2015, he wrote in a NATO journal on information warfare that “it seems obvious that more aggressive communication tactics and broader warfare through trolling and memes is a necessary, inexpensive, and easy way to help destroy the appeal and morale of our common enemies…Memetic warfare is about taking control of the dialogue, narrative, and psychological space. It’s about denigrating, disrupting, and subverting the enemy’s effort to do the same.”

    • The news opinion shows are not what causes so many of us capitalist to ignore CNN and MSNBC. I expect opinion shows, on Fox or CNN, to reflect the bias of the host. However it is the “news” portion of those networks which cause me to mostly ignore those news programs. When was the last new segment on those networks that mention following established emigration laws vs having some interview with someone on the “poor” treatment of said law breakers. How about some good news on a successful capitalist. Sure, lot of interviews with protesters that have wants they expect government to full-fill. Little actual news of facts but mostly news about other peoples opinions. Free markets has led to the bringing the most people out of poverty in history, and if you only watch CNN, you get the impression freedom is the most repression economic environment ever created.

      • Tell that to the homeless I’m sure that will fill their tin cup and make them sleep warmer in sub-zero weather,but as Paul Volker said back a few years that Americans have to take a cut in living standards (and they are still taking it) tell me again how wonderful free markets are so I can print it out and hand it to the 50 million living in poverty.!!!!

      • Newsmax and OAN (One America News) seem to be a bit more straight with the ‘news’ than the other venues but their editorial opinion is probably a lot more to the right than Fox. That being said, there seems to be a better defined ‘bright line’ between news and opinion on those two outlets than on the more well-known cable news channels.

      • “Paul Volker said back a few years that Americans have to take a cut in living standards (and they are still taking it)”

        Boy ain’t that the truth…..

        If wages had kept up with the depreciation of money minimum wage from the seventies would be shy thirty dollars an hour..
        The laborers work twice as many hours for half the wages..
        The only th time congress seems to go to work is when they. Give themselves a raise. Other than that they cant seem to be able to do anything.

      • The Americans might be taking a cut in living standards but the newly minted illegals and refugees have taken a huge improvement in their living standards. This poverty issue that you refer to is purposeful; blame all Presidents since Johnson, especially blame the leftist and their communist manifesto,first destroy the nuclear family, take the Dad out of the home, put the Mother to work, dumb down the population with sub-standard education…it’s easily looked up.

      • Wonderful you just shot your self in the foot with your reply, just look at how we raised the living standard of all these legal/illegal people that have flooded America,for these legal/illegals are why we have 50 million living below the poverty line, and all the federal programs designed just for from from free health care,free rent, food stamps and to what passes for education,and you seem to feel that’s a fair trade off that millions of Americans and millions more to follow,who were put into poverty so that you can raise the living standard of the legal/illegals.Sorry I don’t buy it I don’t think anyone sane person would buy it,well unless you employee these people that is.!!!

    • Here is the Fox News Poll:

      Has President Trump..
      Abused His Power…Yes..53%…No 38%
      Obstructed Justice…Yes..49%…No 34%
      Committed Bribery…Yes..45%…No 37%

      Is Fox making a move to dump Trump? Ad revenue is bleeding and they are realizing That despite Trumps egotistical claims…money is the king, not him.

      • No, WE THE PEOPLE have dumped Fox along with CNN/MSNBC/CBS/PBS/ABC/BBC, etc., Drudge Report, as well as the New York Times, The WallStreet Journal, Time and the now defunct Newsweek, all gonna go bye bye bye. Fox already dumped Trump when their were bought out; we’ve already talked about that in the comment section, but I don’t expect you, Mark, to keep up.

    • The hypocrite (Mark) recognizes the honest man (Trump) as his deadly enemy. Although Trump may not be perfect, he cares about the Constitution & our Country’s future.

      Now Mark is onto “memetics” elected Trump. This mob of trolls placed “vote Trump” into everyone’s mine internetenly & hypnotized the public to vote Trump. Give me a break. Sounds like a Comey testimony.

      • Do you not read what George Ure has to say? Memetics is exactly what he has been writing about for the past several months. The Digital Mob isn’t just about the left pushing their agenda. The GOP pushes Trumps agenda daily…they have your historical internet usage profile and will keep feeding the same crap every day until they control your though process. The Russians and many corrupt governments have been doing that for a few years as well.

        I Actually have a zillion filters on my feeds to weed out the bad news thanks to my friends in tech. You don’t have to worry about me getting fed the fake stuff.

    • Mark, cry meme a river,,,what do you call FAKE polls? remember 2016 polls, Killery led them all,,,they never thought she would lose,,,fake news and fake polls
      Now ,we are waiting for you to turn on Bill Barr(B2 Bomber), cause he is going to beat the crap out of some really bad bad people,,people you like
      You cut and paste but you don’t give your source, so we can look at the bigger picture, about your source, that writes about Jeff. I know it is whistle blower protection bull crap
      https://qmap.pub/ Onward to victory

      • Dan,
        This is national news. I feel compelled to post these polls because it’s true. To you canard lovers, and your feckless leader, the polls are always fake, unless they favor Trump. Heil Trump!

      • Yes, Mark is a paid troll, and he actually hires other paid trolls as guest trollers, it is obvious in his writing as it changes. All I can say is George Ure has definitely hit the HOT button somewhere in the elite universe to be trolled so incessantly. Mark’s and his ilk’s purpose in life is to setback this comment board, distract it, cause arguments, stop furthering it’s natural evolution, force a constant diversion of energy. He’s been here for a few years now…a meme all of his own, ever the same, never changing, forcing itself and standing on the line like a machine, never learning, only emitting one code, one meme. No new information can reach his brain or heart as he doesn’t possess them, he doesn’t learn, he just emits one tune all the time: a hatred of all things Trump.

    • Mark, hardly anyone here is interested in your brainwashed rantings. You’re not going to change our minds and we won’t change yours. So why don’t you start your own blog where you can rant 24/7 to the bleating chorus? It will make you feel even more superior than you already do, and it would make most of us ecstatic. By some accident of fate, you might even convert a marginally intelligent sheep to your way of thinking.

      • Unfortunately TW… I love to read Marks comments.
        Mark has a totally different perspective and grasp of things happening in our country.
        Unlike most of us that see life from the miracle product Brown 25 side of life.


        He see’s society and the economy from the other side of it..
        For me.. I get it.. I welcome his comments because we need to know both sides of a situation.. even though I see the economy going down the drain

      • I live in the land of wolves…not sheep. The sheep have already been compromised by the right wing media. Sorry…read Looking out of the boxes comments. We are all entitled to our opinion…Besides…my intel is much more acute than yours.

  3. Have you ever made the same search engine studies with Bing? I have completely sworn off any G**gle access for years since it became apparent what their main game and politics are so could your search trends show much of anything different between engines?

    • I’m rather disgusted with the “search engines” these days. They’re more a marketing tool than a real boolean search engine. That includes Google(of course), but surprisingly DuckDuckGo and Bing also. Yandex provides a slightly different perspective, but it’s depth is minimal. Google Scholar is still OK, but degrading these days and is not for mainstream searches.

      Yippy is a tolerable search engine, but it tends to find most of the same things as the others. Forcing true boolean on any of these is wearing on the psyche.

      I do like Startpage. It tends toward a more useful set of data returned, but it’s still far short of what we really need. It has the advantage of (advertised) privacy, FWIW.

    • Also, try DuckDuckGo for a browser with privacy as a priority. It’s what I use.
      DuckDuckGo — Privacy, simplified.
      The Internet privacy company that empowers you to seamlessly take control of your personal information online, without any tradeoffs.

  4. I am inclined to agree with the cat! My lady friend and I were discussing what to do for income after the crash and we both agreed that a speak easy with ladies of the evening would be a good money maker. A recent family ancestry research trip to Nevada showed it’s what my Grandparents did in the very early 20th century to make a living so all I would be doing is carrying on an old family tradition

  5. George,

    In the last year or so I’ve had the ‘power of media’ really become clear to me. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve always understood that it can be very powerful in controlling public opinion, etc.

    I’ve been co-hosting a podcast for the last couple of years. This particular show covers science, history and especially archaeology. We don’t have any particular political or social ideas that we’re trying to push. We’re just simply talking about things that we find interesting and having interesting people on the show. Hell, we don’t make a dime doing the show. We’re just doing it because we like doing it.

    The interesting (and flattering) thing about all of this is that we have had several young people email us to say that we had inspired them to get into the sciences and that they wanted to dedicate their lives to the pursuit of knowledge. That part blew me away. We never thought that what we were doing could have this kind of effect. It made me realize that information has enormous potential to do good in the world…or evil.

    When I say evil, I mean it in the literal sense of the word. It wasn’t long ago that I didn’t really give much credence to the ideas about dark vs. light battling for control of the world (or all of reality), but I’ve slowly been changing my mind. I realize that that’s not a very scientific world view, but I have my reasons.

    That led me to thinking about what kind of world we could live in if the media used their power to serve the greater good instead of evil. It’s used to create a false reality that allows all manner of evil to flourish unscathed and unchallenged.

  6. does Boeing have 700 max737 on the ground waiting to be delivered? are they stlll making 40+ a month? is there 120B$ in applied capital just sitting there costing interest?
    one might ask.

  7. Haha George…I stole your National Bank of Dad title years ago and have been using it for so long with my kids and relatives that every Christmas I have the nickname Pluto as in Plutocrat. After many years of reading your column, it’s funny how it’s the little things like NBOD and other diddies I have borrowed from your vernacular.

  8. George

    “The Internet is still broken, social media is still communicating lies and misdirection.”

    What was it that Lex Lothar said in the superman movie?

    I know! It was:


  9. With Comey’s admission that he lied while FBI Director about FISA, may be just the beginning of the rats coming out to distance themselves from the impeachment crazies. They have no shame, only concerned about self preservation. Maybe Lt. Joe Kenda from Homicide Hunter should conduct an interview with Comey & his cronies.

  10. (Santa Rally may continue!)

    I’m curious …who’s buying…we put xmas on hold this year. No one is getting anything at all.. the kids usually spend a lot aren’t spending either. Mostly needed things. I dont know anyone that’s spending money.. even the local merchants spent less on stock.

    I will be the most hated person in our area though lol lol lol…

    Of the planets miracle plants.. one stands out along with marijuana for being do useful in many ways. Although you cant fill up seventeen semis with.paper you’d only get one or so . The Dandelion…lol lol lol I see theres pink and white dandelion seeds for sale . Now without telling the wife.. I got several packets of seeds coming..lol lol..
    I’m excited.. I personally won’t harm one dandelion.. even if everyone I know hates them. It’s still one of the most useful plants on the planet..
    I cant wait to see the look on everyone’s face when they see pink and white dandelions growing lol lol lol

      • I know every one around here hates them…lol lol I’m sure they only know the dandelion the way everyone has been taught. That they are a noxious weed not for what they should be valued for..

  11. For those that are interested….

    It’s official: we are in a “deep” solar minimum


    This is bordering on historic conditions in our local solar neighborhood. At least since humans have been keeping records, anyway. This doesn’t bode well for the climate warming alarmists that are trying to implement a global tax scheme and it potentially bodes even worse for humans, in general.

  12. and that my friends is a sell signal on gold .. ask guru kern but he wants money !! I don’t .. below the 92/96s .. so combine all the lies on everything and we are in boomtimes !!! kaboom . repeat after me , nonsense interest rates and exponential debt = deflationary depression .. now tell that old hippie from California and that old I wanna be rich war veteran in france wake up to themselves

  13. George, Thanks so much for the link to The Moscow Times. It seems to be a little more balanced than RT and it is actually pretty informative and entertaining.

  14. this is the longest fairy tale ever .. santa is growin horns ..robot obey .. gold up market down market up gold down market down gold up gold down market .. god damn robot make life easy .. robots on cocaine ? or programmer?

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