It is an exceptionally (exponentially) busy week or two, so our morning reports will be (perhaps) shorter and more direct.

We begin, sadly, with another mass murder.  This time in Gilroy, California which is south of the South Bay.  32- miles, where this weekend was the “Garlic Festival.”

Three people attending the festival, including a six-year old boy, were killed and more than two dozen wounded.  The shooter was killed, as well.  And the search is on for a second “possible” suspect.

The festival had very tight security; bag checks and metal wands at the entrances, so current theory is the perp cut his way in through a fence.

Another odd aspect is the report that some people were just “sitting there” – unable to process what was going on.

What makes this case so interesting is that it fits into our soft-shouldered “murder cycle.”  If you go back through headlines of the horrific, you’ll see there is a pattern of mass killing incidents that runs from around 133-days after a prior incident to 148-days after.

As one of our astute commenters noted overnight:

New Zealand had the massacre 136 days ago on March 15. The profile of the perps in Gilroy look the similar at this point. If that holds up, are we seeing patterns in patterns?

Reader Phil gets the nod for being exactly on-point:  Yes, there is a pattern.  And worse, investigations like the one ongoing this morning and at places like Newton, Mass. often have references to a shadowy second perp who somehow is never found.

We don’t want to jump to conspiracy theories, but toss in a copy of Catcher in the Rye and you’ve got the makings of a horrible novel about whole populations under mind control…

In case you don’t remember,  Wikipedia tells us this about  Cather:

“Several shootings have been associated with Salinger’s novel, including Robert John Bardo‘s murder of Rebecca Schaeffer and John Hinckley Jr.‘s assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan. Additionally, after fatally shooting John Lennon, Mark David Chapman was arrested with a copy of the book that he had purchased that same day, inside of which he had written: “To Holden Caulfield, From Holden Caulfield, This is my statement”

Toss in mood-altering pills, issued casually by the medical community and you’ve got a very nasty playing field for demonic-minded manipulators, do you not?

Calm Before the Fed

The “not-really Federal” and “making-up-reserves” decision on rates due out Wednesday afternoon as the FOMC meetings begin tomorrow.  One of the last data elements in play will be the Dallas Fed manufacturing report out at 9:30 Central.

For the most part, markets are treading water to start the week.  One exception being the British FTSE which was up 1.65% earlier today.  You saw, likely, that the ECB decided not to lower rates just yet.  They’re hinting at September, but can you trust the ECB?

All of these economic cogs will roll around until (latest darts) centering on August 15th, at which time the U.S. Department of Justice IG report will come out and that could “out” a larsge number of democrat donors/pseudo-investigators who’ve been trying to toss out Donald Trump.

Given the large number of people who’ve come down with THD (Trump-Hating Disease) that report – if it’s a big enough bombshell – could cast a negative mood onto the market.

So far, the happy-talk around the market has been running mostly warm to hot, but we don’t think things are as “good” as let on.  So let’s talk about jobs as?

Another 1929 Replay Marker

Yeah, this more likely belongs on our  Peoplenomics dot com subscriber site, but we feel something of a “duty” to put the obvious out on the free side, once in a while.

You see, there are tremendously misleading assertions about jobs and how “great” things are because how “good” things are depends on who you ask.

We are in, as you probably know, what’s being called the “gig economy.”  Because a lot of people are ADHD, it’s more  interesting to work two or three 20-hour  gigs than to slog away at one grind for 40-60 hours a week.

The problem is this lends itself to misleading statistics.

One way to remedy your thinking is to look at how colleges and universities have dealt with the same issue.  No telling how many people in “education” are working less than 40-hours weeks, but it’s a big number.

The problem – budgeting for a college (which I’ve done as a school director) – is you have to figure out a common denominator for staffing.  Enter the concept “Full-Time Equivalents.”  Simple enough, right?  One 40 hour faculty member weighs about the same as two 20-hour lecturers,.  Maybe three if the 40 has tenure which is a bigger bennies package, right?

While you will hear stories all the time about how we have “all these jobs open” in America right now (usually dis-info, spread by the lefties, to justify more illegal aliens coming in) the facts don’t support any such claims.

As the data informs, Obama had a good increase (December-onDecember) with almost +3-million between 2014 and 2015.  Trump didn’t do as well 2017 to 2018, but you see this is where politics, Trump-hating, and all the rest of it comes home to roost.

What’s the Depression Marker?

Well, if you are a millennial, you’ll be misled if you look only to  Wikipedia as a benchmark on gigs and job sharing.  Because, as they errantly begin, the History of Job Sharing goes back much further than 1970 as reported here.

In fact , it was a wide-spread phenomenon of the 1930’s.  It’s just people today are so full of themselves on social, they forget there’s  nothing new under the sun and hasn’t been since Biblical times.

To spin-up the noggin, a read of Martin Nemirow’s  excellent backgrounder on the BLS web site (Work sharing approaches, past and present” brings this much-longer history of job-sharing into perspective:

“…one feeling expressed is that work sharing was tried by President Herbert Hoover and is no better an idea now as short-time compensation than it was then as work sharing. The comparison is instructive. Critics felt that work sharing under Hoover represented an attempt to avoid fiscal or monetary Federal intervention as well as to avoid public assistance. Instead, voluntary employer action was encouraged in the form of work sharing, not only to spread the work but to do so without cutting hourly wages. (Hoover felt wage cutting would compound the problem.)

Such work sharing (usually imposed by the employer) subsequently came to be seen by labor as a poor alternative to President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s later New Deal…”

Around here, we find it not only  odd, but outright spooky that  in advance of the decline to come, we are already seeing the “public mass consciousness” almost  beginning to brace for the very hard times ahead.

If you’re buying video games instead of working out an IRL survival plan, you’re a fool…and this is a point I’d like you to recall in a few years when you’re starving.  It’s in the same class of advice-ignored that massively overweight people experience as denial prior to their first heart attack.

So, What Else?

For a “short column” I’m not doing so well, so let’s run through what matters:

The  NY Times  is cheerleading the Fed POSSIBLE rate cut: Fed Poised to Cut Rates for First Time Since Financial Crisis, Ending an Era. Depending on the roll-out, it will just mean an even bigger crash in 2020, but we do see an anti-Trump reason to hold out for that.  A Just-Crashed Market would be hard for Trump to overcome.  So the  Times also instructively adds Fed Poised to Cut Rates for First Time Since Financial Crisis, Ending an Era.

“The jitters” or is the buzz leaving the bean? JP Morgan downgrades Starbucks after 90% rally: ‘Upside from here is limited’.

Trade talks may not come to fruition until after the 2020 election as the Chinese may sense change: Oil loses ground on pessimism over U.S.-China trade talks/

Speaking of Beijing: We often refer to appeasement (made famous by Lord Neville Chamberpot appeasing Hitler before WW II) so  the story “American Movie Studios Are Wrong to Appease Chinese Censors” really caught our eye.

Air Travel Prices may not decline as much this fall as in past seasons.  We’ll see if the headline Boeing’s 737 Max Grounding Grinds On: CEO Daily is a big-enough dot for you to connect.

Worse than Ebola?  Well, no, but we did get a flash today about 60 Cases Of PED In Manitoba.  Which doesn’t sound like a big deal unless I tell you that PED is short for Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea. 

Almost as much fun as 858 new typhoid fever cases in Zimbabwe in the past six months.

The kind of morning you want to crawl back into bed and wait for a better day to come along.  Which is what I plan to so…  moron the ‘morrow…

PBG: Performance-Based Government
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