Changelog: Completed SQL database work, saving 1.8gb (55.8%). Speeded up chart loading (gold and silver charts at bottom of this page by removing embedded “size=” and “height-” calls, speeding up the html. Typical site load times are about 2-2.5 seconds now, down from 6-9 seconds before I went nuts attacking the speed issues. Logo and other graphics now served in new WebP format on small devices/phones.
Missed Revolutions are popping up as something to be thinking about.
The Biggest News Story of the Year is virtually ignored by the mainstream media. It’s the Consumer Debt report from the Fed out Wednesday. And, after screaming up at an 8 percent annualized rate in October, spending went negative 2.7% in November. After the close today, look for the federal balance sheet, another important but non-urgent report. The Mainstream Media sells urgency. We sell important.
Next month’s consumer spending report (about this time in February) will help us better re-calibrate what the future holds. Everything is based on you spending money. Because the American consumer is the foundation of the Global financial bubble.
Revolutions that matter are underway:
People are “missing ’em” because they are distracted. Which is what prevents recognition of some of the longer-term issues. Fortunately, using our odd intersecting matrices world-view, it all comes into “retina” resolution when you just stop and think about the data you already have…There are Seven Major Systems and the movement is most revealing.
Food: Two big changes are underway (covered-up by the political divisiveness and the expansionist birthrates of competing ideologies): One is cellular technology which should keep meat production up and at higher quality levels. The other is the “green revolution” that quadrupled food production globally between 1960 and 2010 is getting long in the tooth. Some of the costs are coming home to roost in things like the Round-Up settlements and such. In our opinion, the time’s coming when owning your own food source will begin to “take off” as an asset.
Is “Peak Meat” actually here? Plant-Based Meats Are Eating More Menu Space And It’s Not Just Because of Veganuary.
Shelter: While there’s been an increasing focus, especially from the liberal quarter, on jingoistic “housing inequality” (example thinking over here), the issues in such inequality really have little to do with economic position in life, race, or any of the other “victim-assignment” qualities. No, has more to do with “what’s between the ears” and social traditions. You can put a lazy slob into the best house on the block and presto! Within five years or disregarding and neglecting, it won’t be the “best house on the block” any longer.
Communications: Short of a telepathic implant, is there some logical upper limit to information? Maybe so. 5G is coming, there’s too much money on the table to stop it, but we have to raise the sane question here, are the health risks of the greater-bandwidth and higher duty-cycle really the best investment? (Short of causing health issues which will increase demand for specific healthcare workers…..yes, Everything’s a Business Model, including ill health…Though we trust you can round-up such conclusions on your own…)
Transportation: Boeing is one of the most interesting “Canaries in the coal mine” but then again, so is the Uber/Lyft side of travel. One thing is for sure, Time is of the essence so fast travel is still needed, yet old-line online video conferencing like Skype and Zoom can usually accomplish most business functions at much higher efficiencies. Meanwhile, the future of autos is another curious gamble. Uber and Lyft drivers increase the utilization rate of autos, but as the utilization goes down, what happens to the 10-million people who depend on low utilization of vehicles for both sales and service? The utilization revolution in the sky and on the ground will show which way the future will arise.
These are only a few of the Seven Major systems that are always in flux.
The Environment is totally over-worked, but that’s because there’s lots of Grant Money and grantsmanship is a Business Model, especially when the end deliverable is hard to quantify but scares people by the millions.
Energy has moved out of the central focus thanks to fracking. But as my friend Oilman 2 is fond of pointing out, depletion never sleeps. To those who mindlessly deny (citing abiotic – really abiogenic oil and such) the problem is we can’t wait 500,000 years for the reserves to recover some of their capacity. For now, we’re partying like it’s 1929.
Last is Financialization
One reason I was able to write in July of last year “The Blow-Off Begins? 1929 Chart Says Yes!” (although there were plenty of asterisks) is that among these Seven Systems, there are usually one or two that are ascendant and one or two in decline, When a couple are getting ready to peak, it’s a good time to start re-imagining life.
Financializatrion is when the usual needs basis of economics becomes secondary to the “making up money” aspect of finance. That’s where we are today. The only reason to have money (above $50-million, or so) is to make more money. That may not seem absurd, but it’s in the same league with “growing food to feed food to feed food…” Which is when “Peak Meat” can occur. Similarly, building housing to house more housing? Well, yeah, that might be a peak of a Housing expansion.
Today, we are living an illusion that most economists don’t write (nor talk) about. That is, we are in “tech overlap.” That’s where new demand is coming up while old demand hasn’t yet filled all its market niches. We would likely already be in a declining jobs world, were it not for a handful of “obvious factors.” These all come down to artificial demand.
Open Borders, for example. New arrivals need, well, everything. This reliance of “imported demand by beggared humans” is what has kept the European Union alive longer than I was expecting. On the flip side, the conumptive group is changing (and will continue to overthrow) Old Europe and replace it with an eventual European Caliphate – just extrapolating birth rates out a hundred years, or so.
Similarly, the cartels, which have made so much money on the South American drug trade, filtering a fair bit into American politics via intermediaries, have spawned the gangs that are already running initial insurgency operationgs in virtually all major American urban areas. Europe may get a “chance to convert” but you, homie…not sure how ‘Merica’s gonna work out.
What we do know is that people panic easily – and forget just as quickly. For example, Bitcoin saw a $500 price spike as the recent Iraq events unfolded. And Gold and silver spiked, as well. As the crisis passes, so does the panic buying to get out of paper assets.
Significantly, though, we noticed that the price advances preceeded the triggering event. Which means a) either someone has a time machine, or B0 some big players were in on events to come. (My money’s on the latter since my time machine project is still awaiting the [insert breakthrough insight here] moment.
Which leaves the stock market still going up – and idealized in our work, about 70-weeks from the low ought to doi it, so as of futures pricing this morning, here’s how things look:
Well, as you can see, at one wave count level, it’s OK for the bubble to pop any old time. But, as we showed our Peoplenomics.com subscribers yesterday, there’s a reason we have a tad higher to go.
The other aspect of this Run-away Financialization is that the U.S. Government is likely very afraid. The reason is failing economies turn into economies that undergo radical liberalization from the “mob that must be pleased.” An example is the victory of Roosevelt and we all know that the liberal “president for life” thinking didn’t end until the Amendment to term limit presidents to two occupancies of the Oval.
We’re at a place where that could happen – there is a liberal groundswell in America already – Bernie’s Biggest Free Lunches include such unaffordable treats as free college and more. The good thing about liberalism, though, is it gives the remaining few of us inflation-hedging realists an easy way to make money.
Whether its a home, land, or any other asset, as the liberal spending water’s down the purchasing power of the buck, inflation will come, sure as day follows night. You can use that to great effect if you can just play the game patiently.
Ah, but enough. Tomorrow we get the official unemployment numbers (they will be great) and the market will put on a few hundred more towards the goals we’ve outlined for subscribers.
To borrow from George Peppard’s character on the A-Team: “ I love it when a plan comes together.”
Who Cares Department?
Do you care that Meghan and Harry are coming to America? If yes, then see how the Royals react to Harry and Meghan’s announcement. We’ll skip it.
Do you care that a few RINO’s are second-guessing killing the Iranian terrorism kingpin this week? If yes, then Mike Lee lambasts briefing on Soleimani strike as “worst” he’s received is for you.
In the heartland, did you notice Medical marijuana makes ballot in Mississippi?
And, wrote the geezer, “We’re still waiting for lingerie to take off…” as Victoria Secret’s parent stock falls on weak holiday sales and trimmed forecast.
Gas for the Market: Fed Repo’s today: $83.125-billion.
Time to go chase more of those dandy hash brown Yukon Gold potatoes around.
Write when you get rich,