Markets Wait for Blame Point

We hold to the curious view that there should be something come along in headlines in the next week that will drive the market lower.  Our projections range from an S&P 500 anywhere from 2,396 all the way down into the 2,290 area.

This is never trading advice – as most of the gains this week in my personal account evaporated Thursday as the shorts were run by Wall Streeters who didn’t have sense to take off early.  Instead, they ran  the market up.

Still, the market is lower now than it was at the start of the year.  The S&P ended the quarter a bit over 2,640.  The last reading in 2017 was 2,673.  The Dow, 24,103 yesterday was over 24,719 Thursday.  And the techs?  Therein lies the tale this morning…

(Continues below)

 

With the NASDAQ composite closing at 7,063 and change versus the year-ending (2017) 6,903, it could be argued that Tech saved the day.

Well, not quite.

Two things to remember about tech stocks.

The first is Wall St. doesn’t always treat them fairly.  For example, in the Tech Wreck (Internet bubble collapse) there was a period of three or four years when no broker would even mention tech since it had blown off $5 to $8-trillion dollars of market cap in the collapse.

The other thing to remember about tech is it’s a “growth speculation” not based on earnings and payback to us poor shareholder slobs.  In other words, tech stocks bet more on a Bigger Fool coming along – which they do with some regularity.

So how to reconcile the numbers?  Tech says Q1 was a gain, but the S&P and Dow…well, not good.

Our approach is to use an equal-dollar weighted approach.

Doing this, we see the US Aggregate Index at 22,300.90.  Back at the end of 2017, it closed at?  22,362.

Several weeks back, we told Peoplenomics subscribers that it looks to us like the beginnings of a Bear market.  Using our “all the money is counted” approach – instead of self-serving, stock promotion individual indices, we think a bear market is underway but is not-yet recognized.

While we’ll go over the (ugly) details in our Peoplenomics.com  report tomorrow, what you need to be aware of this morning is that we have just ended a down quarter.  Not only was the Aggregate Index down a fraction, but in our work, inflation really matters, too.  So take it down a bit more for inflation.

What we expect is a rolling top – and not something that will be completely in view until October, or November, of this year.  For now, it looks like there’s a “pitch” left for the boiler room houses (“Tech’s back!”) which we expect to be the mantra for the coming month.

Speaking of Greater Fools and such, did you see NYSE in talks to acquire Chicago Stock Exchange: WSJ?

Side money bet here:  This could level the playing field on some of the HFT execution time gaming between exchanges…not something either you or I will notice even day trading.  If you live in microsecond trading, this says “the system wants to plug a programming leak” – at least in our odd view of HFT.

Still, in our view, as social media admits to how much monkeying with people’s personal information they’ve engaged in, times will slowly shift and the small declines in Social users will increase.  People aren’t likely to stand to be made fools of…and that’s what’s coming to light.

So, with this on the horizon, the only problem is “What will be blamed?”  For that, we turn to the news flow for some ideas.

\\Computing\Crooked\Hacks

Boeing’s WannaCry run-in is a reminder to patch your systems.  Is there still a super virus out there in the wings and is it already propagating?  This is something to think about…

China is cracking down on VPN use – Businesses, consumers uncertain ahead of China VPN ban – which means the US Intel types will need to do something about them, too.  Maybe gin-up a terrorism link to ban VPN’s?

And from our “Tell me it ain’t so” Zuckerberg disavows memo saying all user growth is good.

\\Government\Entrapment

Stories like this one piss me off: The State Department Wants to Require Visa Applicants to Submit Five Years of Social Media Details.

Why pissed?  Under the paperwork reduction act can’t State just dial in  to the secret cross-agency files that everyone in IT knows exists?  I mean WTF is all the money into Provo’s castle doing for us?

Is the real deal entrapment?  To see if applicants are lying about their Social – when the government has it all, anyway?  Stupid…absolutely frigging stupid.  Mueller-think is going viral, perhaps?

This is right in line with the old courtroom dictum to all lawyers:  never ask a question you don’t already know the answer to!

\\WW 3\Foreplay

Russia Tests New Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, says Time this morning.  Again, simple logic should scare the hell out of you:  We’re playing embassy tit-for-tat and expulsion roulette with the Russians now, they have the lead in hypersonic war materiel, and now they have a new missile.

Axiom:  People don’t building missile systems if there’s zero chance of using them.  This is very much on our “track to WW III” model.

\\WW 3\Feminization

Also on the militarism front, remember all our warnings about how the “fifth column ” of politically correct, no excellence, selling average is OK lefties in the classroom is part of an American take-down plan?

Tell me how else to explain Army mulls tougher basic training for out-of-shape, undisciplined recruits?  Less disciplined, fat, and expecting do-overs on everything…the feminization of American youth steams on.

\\Aerospace\ Dropsies

China’s space lab set to fall to Earth this weekend.  Please, not East Texas again – and in the shuttle crash…

\\Corporate Media\Charades

Not sure where to slot this one: Amazon cuts ties with top Washington lobbying firms: Bloomberg.  Will this “blow back” to the Amazon Washington Post sources run by the aforementioned lobbyistas?

\\Economy\ Final Bubble

With the end of cheap interest rates, one of the things driving the stock market has been mergers and stock buy-backs.  See Global mergers and acquisitions reach record high in first quarter for the gory.

\\Useless\News

Tons of that.

Elton John says he has yet to receive his royal wedding invitation.  It’s OK, neither have we.  Deal with it, EJ.

India limits visits to Taj Mahal to 3 hours per person.  Shit.  We’re not going, then.

\\Environment\Organic Food

Starbucks coffee in California must have cancer warning, judge says.

Split-shot Americano Tall with a double-shake acrylamide, half-shake of cinnamon anyone?

This being a holiday, no bills.

A chance to continue our non-destructive pillow research. After lunch, back to work on Peoplenomics for tomorrow…

See you Monday!

Comments

Markets Wait for Blame Point — 39 Comments

  1. George, sometimes when I patronize chat rooms, especially chat rooms that discuss politics and subjects that can bring out extremist or atleast borderline views, I wonder who might be agent provocateur, deliberately soliciting like or even more radical or militant opinions? Theyre everywhere these days.

    • You’re not likely to actually read a post from an agent provocateur. There are far too many “useful idiots” willing to troll messageboards and forums, for a poster or posters with genuine aggressive or malevolent intent to ever reveal themselves.

      The neat (and sad) thing about “useful idiots” is they come from every economic, academic, and intellectual strata (read “The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich” for real-world examples of how the Reich took advantage of smart people’s egos, to turn them into “useful idiots.”)

      Their common trait is they adopt an idea or point-of-view with a “team” or near-religious fervor. Once they have the fervor (or fever), they are henceforth unreceptive to logic, reason, and proven, true fact.

      For example, “Democrat” and “Republican” are teams, “global warming (or cooling, or climate change)” is a religion. True team players or believers will never waver from the current dictates of their team or religion, irrespective of logic or consequence.

      The exception to public “agents provocateur” would be LEAs, when they put out “feelers” to locate potential terrorists and molesters. The LE provocateurs tend to become very aggressive when someone “bobs their cork,” sometimes to the point of inciting an action their “target” would not normally commit, but this provocation is usually directed at an individual or small group, not the reading public, at-large.

      • The agent provocateur’s I’ve known of were agents of the govt posing as 911 truthseekers and peak peak oil activists.

        Different story same subject though, heard on Thom Hartman’s radio show back 10+ years ago about some anti-war Quakers in Florida being infiltrated by a radical guy trying to incite them to be more violent (as you know Quakers are passive). It was discovered that the infiltrator was an undercover FBI agent.

        Ever read a book about the FBI called the terror factory? I saw the guy give a review of his book.

        https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13591775-the-terror-factory

      • PS- Those LEAs fish the public boards. Im sure they minimally read blogs like this. Im sure preppers have their federal observers. Your description is exactly what I’m talking about.

  2. So how is this for a ‘marketing opportunity’? (Actually this is a rehash of an idea I had back in ’67, while my dad and I walked for miles on the beach on the Oregon coast. I was 16 and thought that the 200th year of the USA should be celebrated in a surround kind of film – Dad loved it, Mom thought it silly . . .)

    So many of the treasures of this world are being ‘loved to death’ – Do the IMax experience – but in a portable way so more people can see it – and with models and actual historical bits to go with it . . . traveling museum if you like!

  3. Checkout Dr d article on yesterday’s automatic earth which gets to the heart of USA malaise with a unique perspective.Have you ever thought the millions of traders like you are part of the problem.You win one somebody out there loses.For every lotto winner there is an awful lot of losers.Wonder what Jesus would think of moneylenders nowadays.

  4. I doubt a WW3 scenario is near. Doom and gloom sells , especially with the religious crowd. A world wide nuclear war would not serve the purpose of TPTB nor is it necessary for population reduction. There are so many simpler and less destructive methods of population reduction that TPTB can pull off. Here in America 10s of millions of people are so unhealthy and obese they must take daily prescription pills like statins, diabetic medicine, etc. TPTB could just stop all manufacture of those types of medicine for 1 year, and you would have millions of deaths. In fact, our diets have become so unhealthy but addictive, that many people would rather continue to eat unhealthy and die younger, then start eating and exercising properly. All out nuclear WW3 is not beneficial for TPTB due to the mass collateral / structural damages and radiation/ nuclear winter scenarios. Nuclear weapons are sloppy weapons of this modern era and you can bet there are much more effective and sleek weapondry that can be used { scalar weapons , microwave, sound , frequency weapondry, EMP , HAARP, weather control , etc}

    This world is a stage and much of what we are told on this stage, are lies for agendas to fill us with fear, and confusion and to ensure that peons in society continue to spend their money and focus on procreation and accumulation, which drives the economic systems. It has only taken less then 80 years for Americas society to switch from a culture of farming and self preservation, to a culture of consumerism, obesity, and social media narcissism. Isn’t technology great ? Actually technology isn’t the main blame, humans losing focus on whats important is. We are lab rats of earth used for endless social experimentations by TPTB . We are also often very poor parents . We have children when we ourselves are to young to not only take care of our offspring financially, but from a nurturing and informative standpoint. A 17 year old parent cannot possibly teach their children the same life skills and knowledge that a 40 year old parent can. The only way to break this cycle of our offspring becoming more and more naïve and lost, is to improve parenting skills. Our public education system is mostly a indoctrination system for TPTB and a babysitting system for parents who must work full time jobs.

    • Personally I think that being ‘mentally obese’ is more dangerous than being ‘physically obese’. Most of human history after all happened prior to the invention of modern medicine, and yet great ‘minds’ during that time contributed so much to the development of the civilization of the world.
      Beware the incurious mind!

      • MDS…much of our society is both mentally and physically obese. The chemicals in our drinking water , the chemicals being sprayed in our skies, the chemicals being put on our food , the pharmaceuticals that are endlessly advertised on tv and quickly given to us thru our doctors, and then factor in the endless lies we are given thru politics, religions, Hollywood, tv programming, our education systems, etc..etc. The whole system is driven by deceptions for the sake of keeping us peons confused, placid but just content enough so our frustrations are only manifested thru ” tough talk ” via the internet, social media and amongst ourselves. TPTB are masters of psychology and they have all the tools at their disposal to ensure they are in control, and us peons remain the ” lab rats” of their social experimentations and their chemical conglomerations like big pharma.

        As long as the lab rats concentrate on procreating and accumulating , then TPTB know they are in control and their systems are working as planned. This is proven by how our corrupt media and braindead society is willing to make events like ROSEANNES comeback tv show, a headline story of great importance. Like it nor not, we humans truly are earths perfect lab rats for TPTB.

      • Look at history! ‘TPTB’ have been in control for longer than even mankind’s existence, in fact . . . Biologists can confirm that certain individuals in many species are more powerful than either pure chance or physical or mental advantage can account for . . .

        (Interesting fact, most U.S. presidents are related . . . even President Obama!)

      • Dave, Roseanne’s comeback is exactly what the nation needs. She’s presenting both sides of whats ailing our nation, unlike the new msm opinion networks that are blatantly biased and mostly pro globalist no borders types.

  5. This may be off topic, but if white guys running everything in the USA and Europe is so awful (per a self hating white guy, Alan Cummings) why do so many people of color want to come to the USA and Europe.

    In the world of tender little snowflake, self hating white liberals, my standing up for white guys is considered divisive and racist. Im sick of white liberals claiming to care so much about people of color while they drive home to their neighborhoods that look like them more than the people they claim to care so much about.

    Even many people on this blog wont call out the hypocrisy of the left. Get a backbone.

    Thank you Roseanne. Let’s call a phony a phony…so what if they have to go find a safe space from perceived micro-aggressions. Life is full of adversity…deal with it. The lefts opinions are not the only opinions that matters. Cue, applause….or scorn…whatever!

    PS- there’s more diversity in the block long apt bldg I live in, percenatage wise, than most of the neighborhoods these blowhard white liberals drive home to.

    • Robert…” white guys” do not run everything in the U.S.A….The tribe that has the real power on earth { fed reserve , monopolies in Hollywood, tv programming ,media magazine publishing, music publishing, etc} do not consider themselves to be WHITE . In other words, white gentiles have very little power on earth.

      • Robert, A society can often tell who runs the show, by watching their mainstream media. In America , our media often criticizes the Vatican/pope, muslims, islam, Russians, iran, north korea, white patriots, along with supporting the tearing down statues of white historic figures etc…etc…However, that same media almost NEVER criticizes Israel, Judiasm, Talmdusim.

        Its kinda like chucky schummer claiming that the Oscars gives out too many awards to white people , to try and stir division between whites and blacks. The Oscars and most recipients of awards at the Oscars, are NOT white . They are of the same tribe as Chucky Schummer and Diane Feinstein, who are coincidentally the main proponents of taking away the guns from [redact]. Connect the dots, the common denominator is ALWAYS there, when it comes to enslaving and deceiving white [redact].

        Did you know ,that the IMMIGRATION ACT of 1965, which opened the flood gates to allow immigrants, illegals to come into America, was pushed thru by [redact]? I could go on and on, but in the end, the [redact] just do not have the time or will to learn the truths about the endless lies they have been fed and what entity is behind most of those lies. The [redact] was a perfect title for these pathological and eternal deceivers on earth. They control almost ALL forms of wide scale information dispersal on earth. Is it any wonder why we live in a world of lies and confusion, when pathological liars are allowed to control our knowledge ?

      • This was “toned down” through editorial redacting due to the inflammatory racial/religious identity terms.

  6. ISTM “Hypersonic” and “ICBM” weapons are mutually-exclusive. ICBM velocity must be orbital, and warhead re-entry would be in the vicinity of 3/4 of escape velocity — about 15000-16000 mph, which is much faster than the current definition of “hypersonic.”

    Where “hypersonic” would be of concern is in non-intercontinental missiles. F’r instance, a cruise missile which would outrun any pursuit missile, and thus be exceedingly difficult to bring down. Launched underwater from a submarine, such a missile could be in D.C. before Naval Intelligence even got the radar blip.

    DIs have had a rep for decades, for being hard-butt taskmasters. Their hardassedness has also been periodically diminished by PC and “sensitivity training” that’s been incrementally forced upon the military, roughly every 10 years since Vietnam. A ’60s DI wouldn’t recognize Basic Training today.

    I’ve never understood this, because the job of the drill instructor is to break a young adult down, then rebuild it in a manner conducive with survival and functionability in a battle environment. The better this is done, the more likely little Johnny or sweet Suzie lives to see tomorrow, once they’re in a battlezone. If I’m 18, I am all in favor of being treated in any manner whatsoever which increases the likelihood that in 10 years, I’m pushing a keyboard or a plow, and not daisies — even if it makes me cry and want my mommy, or makes my muscles ache from scrubbing the latrine with my toothbrush.

    We need a bunch of those ’60s DIs back, along with a rule that nobody washes out unless they acquire a permanent physical, medical condition which makes basic training impossible…

    Amazon may “cut ties” but they’ll never cut communication or influence channels. It makes no strategic or logistical sense to do so.

    I will stick with my home-brew coffee, thank you very much. It’s much better, cheaper, and I know what’s in it…

  7. Hi this could be to Andy and everyone else but say the system is out to get you that one percent owns everything trillions and trillions they don’t like being on an island or everything is distributed evenly neither does George but if he did he would go like well I got this over here I got it from you because you gave it up.

    those of the top or not about helping others there about dominating and about satanic a father about making you squeal as hard as you can squeal when they grab you by the financial balls.p

    got too many states that off of the HUD program they don’t do it here in Tennessee but where I live live a didn’t you that’s where I was able to buy a bunch properties through the hood the VA in other programs they have listed so don’t say it can’t be done.

    If he told have anything and you don’t have anything to lose head to one of those states that off of those programs and if you’re address of and believe that you can achieve you will get head.

    What you got to head to the point where you can go anywhere and make Investments then you gotta licked.

    but for most people it’s great to know for young people to have a mentor someone who can back them up and those states that don’t have those programs where they can further you and to success without being indebted to the rock towel back of us need to be arrested and taking out then cuz they don’t have any they have no they have no reason to be making our money for us it was a scam they didn’t 1913 so

    If you want to walk through your house and gays a girl and and say this is what I have and I’m happy with it this was my goal than you need to take the steps throw very aggressive steps that mean you have to get down and start the bottom and work do way up

    I’m sorry if I’ve offended a lot of people but I mean well my man offensive is toward the people who took over our financial system in 1913 but for the people who don’t understand that like Mark who was all for letting him take over everything in anything you’re first Amendment since I can’t 2 minutes.

    Good luck to you but as in Georgia site said everything it goes up comes down yeah we have tarts but the torch don’t always follow they go off haywire because of something that’s happening the changes sometimes is the people who have the money that changes it and sometimes it’s outside circumstances that they have no control over the changes it.

    So y’all have a good day I’m remember may all these be loving we first told don’t laugh one thing get you down for around and remember the domain force and the old Empire we are entering into the domain for sore getting rid of the old Empire you never what I said about the catch is what the choice is and the way you do that and there doing a get every day.

    Is there changing time we have people from the food Juliet people from the past week change time all the time there’s that’s where the war zone is is in the people the organizations that from the future and the past that are able to change time that’s I’ll come you can’t rely on one thing to go and that direction except your basic needs if you have that and you wake up in the morning and it’s all gone you know this because someone is James time but if you believe in yourself in the time you’re in then they can’t manipulate your time.

    • All is well. Sometimes I mess around Bryce. Lol I get what your putting out. I agree with you to an extent about a few items of interest. Oh that is a wonderful pun. Lol Just downloaded the new up-date and things are all wonky on my phone. Has a mind of it’s own. Another pun. Lol

      I do think that there is a time and place for cryptos. I am waiting for entry. I will be there when I get there and not a moment to soon or to late. I have faith.

      First, I am watchful. I am patient and watchful. I took the local casino for $1200 Thursday night. Ya see, I listen. You can hear the sounds in the casino. When its quiet. Nobody is winning. When it gets loud and all the slots are chiming away their music that is when the winning is going on. So I bet low when its quiet or just watch when it is quiet.

      And it is quiet right now on the crypto “slot machine.”

      I play to win. I just don’t name my money in a box and start beating the button like a monkey all cracked out on imagination and drunk on crazy ideas “God wants me to win”. And I don’t gamble with rent money.

      So. I wait. That is what I’m doing.

      • Hey that’s great fantastic Andy I’m glad for you yeah I just watch the new video of Jay snip 4 and Dick allegory and yeah for the next six weeks it’s a bloodbath going down cryptos so it looks like it could be the time to be buying.

        So I’ll continue buying every week and when the moment hits right when it’s ready to take off i’lll put a load in there.

        There’s something about May 15th something supposed to happen I don’t know what some kind of conference or something I don’t know I didn’t listen to carefully on that but it’s right at that point it’s supposed to take off so we’ll see.

        I really like the idea of taking that winning of 1200 and putting it in in May and if the price is supposed to be at least 3,000 in December gosh it just depends on how low it gets in May and it’s about a buck 10 but 12 right now.

        So like I said I’ll buy a little bit every week that and hopefully it’ll go down to 40 $0.50 or so before May 15th if it does that’s the time to load up.

        I guess if you’re doing day trading it would be a great time to load up and then sell after you know peeks short-term me I’m not going to do any day trading I don’t think .
        I’m just going to hold through this year and then probably pick another coin next year.
        Like maybe theta coin or maybe neo which is a foreign coin. I think .

        I’m a follower not a leader the only time I lead is when I go off of my own little tangent and I’m successful when I do that.

        But when I do that I have to hire other people because I can’t do anything by myself.

        As I’m getting older …man I hope I don’t have to have anyone to wipe my butt hopefully the automated toilet will take care of everything haha. Lots of laughs and lots of love

      • For all you old people out there who are having a hard time getting around in the bathroom I’m the summer thinking of getting me one of them $300 tub seats that rotate around on the floor rotate you know toward the shower and but I also got is I don’t have that rotator but what I have is a a $97 clothes washer you can get it off of Amazon and it’s very lightweight you can pick it up with one hand easily I don’t think it was but 10 lb but it fits right into your tub and you fill it up with the shower or you can put new nozzles on the thing and fill it up but it washes really great and what it also does is a has another hole for a spinner and you take the clothes and put the spinner at spends them almost dry so you take those clothes out after this and you can take those if it’s in the summer time you can take the almost dried close out and put them on and you’ll be cool in the hot summer air..

        Anyway I think I posted this for George or one of those units so that he could have a washer and his RV when him and his wife happened to buy one and take trips and not have to go in town for washing and drying.

        So back to the seat Rotator other words if you have your toilet next to your tub you can get off of the toilet and then get on the seat Rotator rotated around and then you’re in the tub and behind the seat is my washing machine the little $97 washing machine so as we get older able to stand up and since a lot of accidents happen in the tub with a shower that would be one of the things as you get older to get so that you can shower while you’re sitting down and or you can take off the clothes while you’re on the toilet or in the sit-down mode and then toss the clothes behind you into the washer.

        Or you can just do what Hugh Hefner did before he died he had two or three beautiful ladies that waited on him hand and foot who I’ve does butt and did all his chores and bathe them man sounds like Harmony done that okay anyway that’s what money can do for you if you so desire.

      • You will be a millionaire before the year hits 2019 of course look out for inflation because if everybody else is rich that means everything will be inflated.

        Unless of course we all get automated and have robots do all the work for us and our farming and there’s no reason that everyone on the planet can’t have a higher lifestyle instead of being indebted slaves to a few multi trillionaires.

      • But they say less than 1% is into the cryptos so I don’t think the inflation will be all that great and it’ll take a bunch more years for cryptos to actually take hold across the world but for instance you know you won’t be writing checks out no more you won’t have cash so for all the evil doers how are you going to communicate yes they have other cryptos wallets that are untraceable I guess that’s what the drug dealers and drug use with use and that’s what the CIA FBI contractors will use.or maybe diamonds or ultra Quantum sophisticated chips which will take the place of money and diamonds.

  8. Re: global mergers and acquisitions

    It’s my understanding that one of the goals of the globalists is to reduce competition and increase control of consumer goods through mergers and acquisitions. Seems to me they are on target with their agenda.

    • Yes, that is why we have to go back to the new and improved Victory Gardens, local, local, local, barter and trade, and visit Mom and Pop stores….slow er down and build up the resistance one yard at a time, one person at a time, one family at a time. They can’t control EVERYTHING yet!

  9. George
    ” We’re playing embassy tit-for-tat and expulsion roulette with the Russians now, they have the lead in hypersonic war materiel, and now they have a new missile.”

    Unless their new missile warheads are manuverable it doesn’t mean much to be hypersonic. Most ICBM reentry vehicles travel between 15,000 to 17,000 MPH and many of them have decoys that are ejected during their descent phase of flight.

    I need to see some hard data on what the “hypersonic” missiles really do before I get worried. It just might be Fake News.

    It’s also very important to properly enunciate between Lunch and Launch!

    That’s an insiders joke.

  10. George the whole market operates on the theory of “a greater fool coming along” and has for years, as the endless flow of 401K money comes along every month or ever quarter,chasing whatever suits their fancy,after all those billions have to go somewhere regardless of the value of the stock…