If you’re the typical American, transfixed in the headlights of a phone tied-up to useless social(ist) “cause media” – this may not worry you much, but it should:
The Stock Markets globally are down another one percent (very roughly) overnight. And, when the US market opens in an hour, or so, we will expect to see the Dow bleed-off 200 points.
After that, in terms of expectation setting, we’d like to see a rally to the -125 range after hour after the open – or even a run to the break-even line before Europe closes. But, overall, a downside of 200-400 today isn’t out of the realm of…
What’s going on?
First, as our Peoplenomics.com subscribers know, we are coming down to a crucial inflection point for the market with today’s opening (and we expect a close in the same zone, ideally):
As you may correctly infer, there are two trend channels we are watching. (Remember, this is all based on our proprietary Aggregate Index work in markets – an outgrowth of a couple of decades of long wave econ research.)
The first trend channel to observe will be the black one. A good bounce here – which is to say we don’t close but a fraction below it (if at all) would give hope to our preferred assessment of the future. Namely, that we could avoid the summer train wreck that some people are hyping.
That’s the two black lines. Now comes the lower trend channel – the blue lines. If we go down there, then the S&P could be down in the 2,550 range in short order, and while there’s still “Disaster Avoided” outcome, it will definitely be “worth keeping your seat belts loosely fastened like we do here in the cockpit...”
The rough air at this point has the potential be shake everyone up and maybe cause some injuries.
Second point? Using the 10-year Treasury Note as a proxy for an aircraft storm-scope, with the display on Yahoo Finance under the symbol ^TNX, we observe that since the Federal Reserve (the Bankster arm of “government”) raised rates, in fact the exact opposite has arrived in the bond market.
If we look at the “weather pattern” of bonds as some tough Elliott wave turbulence, a break down to lower lows in bonds would be prompting us to pull things out from under the bed. We’ll be ready to move in with dust bunnies…
“Which has what to do with Power Tools???”
Right! (Third point!) Just getting to that.
The long and short of that is simple: When the delta (differential) between US exports and Chinese imports has been highest, the cost of Chinese power tools (via Northern Tool, Harbor Freight, Amazon, and others) has been extremely low compared to other goods.
Now, we look at several sobering notions: The US really does have a crappy-to-shitty trade relationship with China. We essentially charge tariffs on color TV’s and not much else.
Clearly, the Trump Administration knows the power of the US consumer market (and our voracious appetite for ever-more consumer crap) so they are negotiating for Fair Trade and not the Globalista trade lay-downs of Clinton, Bush, Obama, et alia. Puppets of the Globalist Billionaires Club. (It’s always about the money, right?)
Which is why – if both of our trend channels break, you might want to stock up on all the power tools you’ll need for the Second Depression, along with all the electronica needed to support your personal future.
Oh! Also a grand time to be picking up a useful skill, too. Something that people will use in good times, or bad. Trades like plumbing, electrician, even garbage collecting may not seem really “sexy” but ask yourself: “If app development was around in the Roaring Twenties, how would it have fared in the Dirty-Thirties that followed?” (Pass the pipe, bucko?)
We hold certain truths to be self-evident…and for this week that means watching a couple of key trend lines and idly thumbing through deals at the Chinese power tool emporiums.
Madness on Bordering, Redux
Here we go again. A Reuters story that caught our RSS attention headlines “Trump says illegal immigrants should be deported with ‘no judges or court cases.”
This should leave the swamp-critters in a total frenzy: It will reveal to the world that “liberals” (really radical) think all people who physically get into the country automatically get the Constitutional promise of speedy trial, and all that. Trump obviously figures the Constitution applies to citizens not wall-scalers and drug-mules.
On the other hand, Trump’s latest bait says no, if you illegally break and enter you don’t get to stay.
The problem is a scaling off what goes on in radical and conservative states.
In radical states, if someone breaks into your home in the middle of the night, the ONLY defensible action is to call 9-1-1 and hope the baddies don’t do physical harm to you or your family. In other states, like Texas which is a strong “Castle doctrine” locale, the magic words are “fear for your life.” makes a convincing case and out comes one of the pistols from the nightstand.
Like the recent lop-sided idiocy about “children in cages” (and Obama policy that was buried by the radical apologists, and their dimwit too kind press, this one is another emotional dandy. It should keep the public all worked-up, and thus docile and dumb – unable to focus on real issues – for the next month, or two. JFD (*just freakin dandy.)
Another distraction for the radicals to sell in the fall elections – which will be funded as always, by the rich. Don’t get me started on the buying of elections in ‘Merica….
Speaking of Immigration
Didja see this one? “Algeria abandons 13,000 migrants in the Sahara.
My, oh my: Where is the radical outrage on this? Oh, could it be that because Algeria is a Muslim nation, the arrogant press gives ’em a pass? Is that it? Tisk, Tisk…
What If It Was Race?
By now, I’m sure you’ve read about how Maxine Waters has opened the latest Trump bashing front.
Read “Maxine Waters orders MORE public harassment of Trump aides: ‘God is on OUR side!’” and you’ll get the idea.
Clearly, Maxine supports the owner and staff of the chicken joint that refused to serve a member of the Trump administration over the weekend.
But hold the phone. This is where we see the duplicity and double-standards of the radicals in play again:
While we’re pretty sure that the Left would be correctly incensed and sharpening up the guillotine had the issue been racial identification and discrimination, since the issue in play is political identification and discrimination, well, that’s OK.
Now here comes CNN with “Transgender woman says restaurant booted her.” Bet me she can sue, but the Trump staffer….double standards all over, do you love America, or what?
It’s morning’s like this I ask “Has America completely flipped the f*ck out?”
No drugs needed: We hold some Truths to be self-evident. A good squeeze on my forearm with the ViseGrips and on to the next story, then…
Somewhere in here, I need to mention that the Case-Shiller housing data will be along tomorrow morning. So today’s market action may turn on that news release depending if good or bad.
A few of the RSS pings from our https://computationalfuture.com website (which we feed to the word-frequency analysis engine in the Nostracodeus software…)
Attention Bikers: Harley-Davidson will not raise prices to cover tariff costs. The backstory is when the EU ups tariffs, it will drop Hibbly-Diblitzen sales a bit but their EU pricing will hold. (We put this into the “For Now…” tickler. Since we are replaying the last economic long wave bottom, trade will make EVERYONE crazy.)
Severe storms and heavy rain for the Plains, Hot dry weather continues across the Southwest. It’s called a drought if you’re not keeping up with class. When you marry a “drought” with a “recession” you get a “depression.” But that gives us more to write about…
I got up super early this morning, so off to breakfast and then hit the treadmill.
Dow futures down 169 at click-time, but let’s get a read after the opening “amateur hour…” Oh, one more: Bitcoin $6,186. Another mania in passing. Want some fried tulips with that?
Moron the ‘morrow, as it were…