Is there a point, at which, markets can rise no further? A point where the “money coming out” of markets can’t be replaced by the number of new converts to the Church of Greater Fools?
For now, it’s an open speculation.
But one’s consideration of the “good times” ought to be tempered with some economic realities.
- First, and foremost, we reckon that last Thursday, Israel came within a whisker of taking out Iran’s nuclear projects with a mass bombing raid. Whether that would have “gone nuclear” is above our pay grade, but it would explain the outburst of “work at night” from Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. We sensed a news leak, but it was well-covered as a Fed rate response.
- Since then, we have been in a bounce. At the early Futures pricing today (7 AM), it looks like even Santa is tired from all the short-squeezing Monday.
- The host of coincident indicators? Dow Theory fans will note the Transports are still down about 10 percent since Turkey Day. Bitcoins were trading down into the $93,000s with the usual “dueling hype.” Examples? Bitcoin Down 15% From Record High as Bearish Momentum Builds is countered somewhat in Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bulls Target $97K Amid Doji Formation.
- To us, however – being huge fans of Joe Granville’s work on long-term On-Balance Volume calculations – the most worrisome development is how the five-year view of the Dow appears to be rolling over with on-balance volume now faltering.
This is a screen snag from Yahoo Finance which is regularly updated here.
To which we would have to add our own work using an Aggregate Index. Which assumes that back in 1999 you had a pile of money, cut it three ways, and then tossed it into the Dow, the S&P, and the NASDAQ.
To us, one way to look at this is the “Big Run (to the upside) may be over” and – IF that is the case, then a Wave 1 down came to the yellow trend line (and slightly under). Which would put us into a bounce, and from here, within a week or three we could be at the next levels down in Elliott.
I spend (never long enough) on the phone with G.A. Stewart (his site is here) as he’s the world’s foremost thinker on Nostradamus. I’m trying to get a bead on how we get to nuclear war this coming summer, but one way would be a major five waves down now – into the early days of Trump – and then a major wave 2 rally up into “Sell in May and go Away.” Which would then clear the decks for the utter collapse with nukes in the summer or financial implosion in the fall.
Where’s the “blind side” in all this?
Good question. But, one guess would be that we have built (the current civilization new spin on Tower of Babel) entirely on electricity. This is not to say electrics won’t work, though EMP is a real risk. Rather, it’s that the nationwide (and global) interties that make “magic happen” could be doused. Dragging anchors and other attacks on undersea cables could turn into a real nightmare.
How do you get groceries in a world where electricity won’t let your bank transactions clear? How do you order up supplies to re-fill a warehouse or distribution center? How do traffic flow systems work? How to trains switch…there are layered dependencies (all taken mostly for-granted) at every turn. That’s a tough one.
Enough, for now. But there’s plenty to consider, ponder possible problems and then cobble up “can’t lose no matter what” solutions.
As we have been writing for more than a quarter century here, a good life isn’t one that is totally optimized and monetized. Instead, it’s the path that can’t lose. Winners? Usually there’s only one, or at least very few. Non-losers? Much lower bar and easier to nail.
Headlines on Parade
While sitting around (with a 9 mm on my lap, waiting for a clatter on the rooftop to break up), these may instill insights into the odds of long-term planetary evolution:
Sinking feelings: Russian cargo ship explodes and sinks in Mediterranean Sea. Even being “attached to land” doesn’t always help, either: Santa Cruz Pier Collapses Taking Several People With It, Two Rescued From The Sea. And if your “sinking feelings” are of a more personal nature, might we point out 57 Things People Romanticize That Are Actually Pretty Awful?
Something up her sleeve? Lara Trump removes herself from consideration for Rubio’s Senate seat. But, here’s the thing: A Senate gig would be nice. And 50-years of news-sniffing says people usually act in their own beneficial self-interests. So, what would be more “cush” than the Rubio chair? Or, is the chair being cleared as an L-Z? Matt Gaetz May Run for Senate, Replace Rubio.
Ukraine war, nukes in Cuba, sure, Russia gets a lot of shit wrong. But once in a while? A winner: Russia to introduce language tests for children of migrants. (We like to see liberal reader’s heads explode, now and then…)
We apparently aren’t the only ones who see crypto mining as a collosal waste of energy sources that could be used more productively elsewhere: Multiple Russian regions ban crypto mining.
And about that unhackable cryptos claim? Japan, US blame North Koreans for $300 million crypto theft. Why, if this wasn’t a near-holy day, I’d point out the farcical digi-turd problem again for those who can’t do sums.
It wasn’t Harriet Potter, now, was it? J.K. Rowling Leads Backlash Against Sturgeon for Claiming There Was No Public Opposition to Gender Self-ID Until “Forces Muscled In”.
AOC keeps sounding like “Another Old Commie” as we review AOC Handler Allegedly Attacks Journalist Asking Hard-Hitting Questions about Illegals. Let’s move her to McAllen. or Caracas; show of hands? Meanwhile, keep an eye on AOC AOC Denies Rumors She Is Pregnant: ‘Had a Lot of Food at Thanksgiving’
One more, while we’re at it: Rep. Ayanna Pressley praises Biden for death-sentence commutations. We prefer murderers dead, thank you. (The world is full of slow learners, we figure.)
Then there’s this from our “don’t let the door slap your ass on the way out” file: Drag shows, Arabic Sesame Street, lonely rats: How Biden spent $1 TRILLION on ‘government waste’.
At the Ranch: Looking Back Christmas
You may not be a regular reader of our “Comments” section. But often, the material there is better than what I manage to scrounge up off the wires and the public spew-flow.
Take for example, this note from reader Larry who wrote:
“Let me think about this, you actually met Louis L’Amour? And visited with him? What an interesting time that must have been.”
It was! And one of many grand moments in Life. So I penned a more lengthy reply than usual which really fits with the pensive, reflective, mood of the day:
“Yeah, it was a great afternoon. He was in town (Seattle, staying at the Westin) where I was a rock n roll turned country news director (KOL then KMPS) and L’Amour was on a book tour. Seems like all the new writers of the era (1970’s) would stay at the Westin – which locals insisted “looked like two corn cobs”. The food was great at the Palm Court on the main level. But where I put away too many martinis was downstairs at the Trader Vic’s. It was here I learned economics from the late Dr. Paul Erdman. “The Silver Bears” and “Crash of ’79” and many others. Unlike America, Swiss banking laws put the CEOs in prison (right or wrong) for the misdeeds of the underlings, so that’s how Erdman had time to write his first novels. I digress…
L’Amour was tall, somewhere between thin and lanky, wiry would be good, and had a beer while we talked for almost two hours, most of it being caught on tape for my weekend public affairs program “introspect” where I had all kinds of great guests – People like Richard Bach, Raymond Moody, Bob Cummings, the list went on and on.
L’Amour was a traditional Western guy, born in the Dakotas, and I was impressed by the hard crease in his jeans. In western circles, a good, solid, crease in jeans is a kind of status symbol, though people who haven’t lived in the “real west” tend not to notice. My wife (of now 25-years) had been a rodeo “timer” back in her western days and men in the west had a real “thing” about creased jeans…part of “strack” if you follow.
The most interesting part with L’Amour about his time “on the beach” down at San Pedro was during the Depression. He was trying to catch a merchant marine ride/job on a tramp steamer to go see Asia. That would turn into later short stories. He’d gone to the seaman’s center where they had collections of very small books, the Everyman’s Library mini pocketbooks. These are tiny books, some smaller than a regular paperback. Many were small enough to fit in a wandering man’s shirt pocket. They can still be found on eBay – and there’s a cult following collecting them. The older and smaller, the better.
Seamen were very good about taking these books from whatever seaman’s center they visited. It was very poor form not to pass-on a book when done. In a way, it was a low brow “original library lending system.” Run on an “honor system.” Back when there was such a thing.
Once L’Amour got a ship, he would read to his crew-mates, late at night up in the forecastle of the ship under (usually) a single swinging bulb. Where he said the crew (even those weak on english) would gather around to hear the stories. Some were the classics, and there was Jack London, Twain and lots of others. There was no radio and it was a captive audience.
After this, he got into how (and this was in the writing/reporting part as I recall) he had walked the old wagon roads and talked with whoever he could meet out there. Many of the old families along the trails out west still had vivid memories of the people, the outlaws,the wagon trains, and the settling of a territory fresh from either their own memory if old, or from parents and grandparents if younger.
He was a marvelous fellow – kind of guy you couldn’t help but listen to and respect because he really walked the talk – saw all the places he wrote about, with the exception of Siberia which was featured in his novel “Last of the Breed.” But even here, there was a large portion related to Native Americans, and their skills. Which were woven into a masterful tale of escape from Soviet Russia and “walking out” to Alaska by way of Siberia. While being pursued by a sadistic tracker.
Along the same lines (writers I’ve been privileged to meet and interview), I also taped James Michener when “Sports in America” came out. Time has dulled a lot of the memory of that book, but it was a fascinating tale laying out how “sports” in America went from being street level boxing ( in saloons, and work camps) into more organized and then how it all got on the road to mass popularization (and eventually monetization).
By the time I got to the Cayman Islands (by now an airline exec, 1984) I was anxious to meet Mohamed Ali (Cassius Clay) and that experience was highlighted by the handshake. I have reasonably sized hands, you see. But when I shook Ali’s hand (he was doing a fund raiser for the local boy’s club in Georgetown) it was like my hand was child-sized. His hands were enormous! Baseball mit size. Ever since that time, when in bars and dives, I’d always notice people’s hands. And wonder (still in awe) at how much of the time “reg’lar people” just blew smoke. Ali was THE real deal as I judged his hand probably weighed more than my hand plus the whole of my forearm to well past the elbow…
It’s been an “adventurer’s life” no question – such that when time comes, my Life Review ought to be pretty good. Every Christmas, I sit back and measure my life a bit. One way is to ask “Is there anyone who’s life you would trade” for your own?
I can honestly say “No, thanks.” It’s as good a measure of a well-played life as any I’ve found.
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
As to the question, “How do you get groceries in a world where electricity won’t let your bank transactions clear?” The only way I know of is CASH. But it too has problems as without electricity we have no Internet which stops scheduling of trucks which stops food deliveries and so on and on and on. No juice then NO Nothing! Eat my cash?
Where I live at in Costa Rica we still have local farmers so I can use local cash for tomatoes, pork and so on. None of my kids have this opportunity but some are hunters and farmers so the freezer if full of goodies that should last a year.
My thinking is prepare for a year in cash and food. Then Pray a Lot!
Merry Christmas to all on George’s site with a very Healthy New Year.
Well done George and thanks a bunch for all that you do!
Cheers.
Good comments. Minimalism lifestyles are appealing, but require constant resupply. I keep things small, but clutter is better than starvation. Other items to consider for the immediate future:
-Start using a gravity filter for drinking water. I have a Katadyn sitting in the kitchen, which I now use full time. Berkeys have their following. I am having a lot less gastrointestinal issues since I started using the filter. Seems I was putting the blame on food poisoning unnecessarily in some cases.
-Diversify your stoves. Have something in hand which can be used with all available off-grid fuel sources. Two is one, and one is none. Fuel sources for cooking can include solar, gasoline, kerosene, propane, isobutane, wood, charcoal and alcohol. I don’t like handling propane, but I have a single burner propane stove for back-up. I don’t mention natural gas, because in most cases, when electricity goes down, so does natural gas. Domestic gas wells are hard to come by. I suppose a few of you have access to dried animal dung, but I’ll be using wood before I resort to that. Wood will be the fuel of last resort for me.
-Without water, you are finished. Develop, or at least know where to get, alternate sources of water, and have means to transport or pump without electricity. This gets ugly fast in crowded urban areas. Hurricane experience will give you some idea of the logistical nightmare involved. This gets in to rotating fuel storage where no shallow well is available. Minimalism doesn’t account for this.
-Ride a bicycle, and get your legs trained. Have a bicycle that can haul supplies and is in good working order.
it’s getting harder and harder to spend cash at our local Walmart.
I’m not saying you’re wrong or anything.
“the freezer…. full of goodies’
There’s no electricity yet the freezer still works. Solar?
“As of 2023, about 4.4% of single-family homes in the United States have solar panels. ”
Family A will have power while families B thru Z will not. I guarantee the lights and smells of cooking will draw B thru Z in.
Plan to cook inside during daylight hours.
I have found there is as much or more information to be found in the comments section. That being said G, I strongly believe all you would need to do would be to post a short thought or idea then let the comments run. You’re much appreciated.
Stay safe. 73
Lots of Value in this idea. Agree.
What we got is… …us.
Which is a lot if the net is working.
7.295 by day, 3.999 by night if it’s not.
(both LSB.) on qht xx:15s amd the xx:45s.
Personally, I doubt we’ll make it to Jan 20 without Very Big Events. Even if we do,
that ain’t necessarily a “safe-on-base” condition. The Bad Guys don’t give up easy —- if at all, ever.’
Stay flexible, and hope for the best.
Speaking of GA Stewart, Martin Armstrong says people are missing a HUGE piece on the global chess board – Turkey https://rumble.com/v61fr42-depression-debt-default-and-destruction-in-2025-martin-armstrong.html?e9s=src_v1_ucp
This a recent interview with Greg Hunter and Martin.
Martin is sounding more like Stu than normal, and is recommending mattress stuffing.
You may or may not be an admirer of Martin, but you need to listen to this video.
I agree. Martin’s tone has changed from the past to a greater sense of urgency to what is currently going on.
Yo Chief,
a 9mm aint gonna stop the “hazelnutz”.
We be talking steerable hypersonic vehicle, protected by plasma fields.
These Russian badboys not only defeats all the great satans’ missile defense system (s), it defeats the Logic that built them.
..no looping high altitude “moonshots” like ICBMs, no these badboys just rip right thru atmospere at Mach 8 or faster, low altitude flight, screaming with vengeance. Not a game changer, a game ender.
* speaking of Nutz – did we collect tons of plain Hickory nutz this fall ? Its a thing in Pennsyltucky.
Ground up the whole nut&shell – boiled for awhile. Nut shells are strained out, everything else goes in the Nut Milk. The smell in Ure house from cooking deez Nutz – oh my goodnesses!
Hear how 2 -https://youtu.be/lOy6NHgYpW8?si=vg4Vs3zLy-GSt2nF
* avg profit of ALL Bitcoin holders/investors/hodlers – about $68K – yeah lets call that “not losing”, sure.
** the pain in Pennsyltucky falls mainly on LTCG at 15% – oh thats gonna Hurtz, might need a hail mary to cover that nut tax.. “a Fine is Tax for doing Wrong, a Tax is a Fine for something well” -uknown
Think shagbark hickory nuts I found the best. Planted nuts here when we built and have nice trees 2. Also planted walnut trees from seed.
https://foragerchef.com/the-foragers-guide-to-shagbark-hickory-nuts/
Family recipe was for hickory nut cake & smeared with butter.
Are there many nut trees on the Ure Tree Ranch?
No, I just have a couple of my own and they’re well taken care of – indoors of course
I’m so sorry I caused Christmas to be cancelled. I told Santa that I was a good girl this year and he died from fits of laughter. The North Pole has been going down hill. The elves prefer to spend time on social media rather than make toys, Santa’s sleigh has a broken runner and no one anymore knows how to fix things. Worse yet, Rudolph has had transgender surgery and Rudolphia hasn’t recovered yet. It’s all so sad. Maybe the alien drones will fill in this year for Santa. They have been practicing in New Jersey mapping the roofs.
Don’t forget the alien invasion is set for tomorrow. Be ready.
The market will go up and up. Trump already called for an end to the debt ceiling. Go along or be labeled a TDS’er.
O/T – did the radiation sniffer drones ever sniff out the box of radiation?
I’m speculating that all radioactive prostate seed implants are causing technical issues for the sniffers! Kinda like Captain Kirk of the Starship Enterprise having problems with Klingons around Uranus! Referring to the planet, not your butt!
The real truth is .gov did a scan of everyone’s house mapping out who has end of times supplies and guns.
Here, have one of my paranoia pills…
I’ll add to your interesting article on Louis Lamour, Besides his writing being my favorites as a youngster growing up, I was supposed to meet him for lunch at his ranch in La Plate canyon Colorado, which is located between Durango and Cortez on the southern New Mexico border. I was given access to cross his property to get to an area where I was gold mining on a very small scale. Anyway He was delayed and I had to get back to my place as i had work the next day and so I missed meeting him, I did have a few phone calls with him, about access. I wish I would have met him in person. also just for the record I have every book he wrote and even though “The last of the breed ” was not a western it was a favorite of mine.
merry Christmas George and Happy New Year!
Merry Christmas to one and all..
I was thinking about your money woes. If you put together a cookbook with your old beer and wine recipes ,or one with your bread and pasta recipes, I bet people on here would pay $10 for either of them. Or perhaps one with directions on how to make all those interesting gadgets you make with your grandkids.
” I’m trying to get a bead on how we get to nuclear war this coming summer, but one way would be a major five waves down now – into the early days of Trump – and then a major wave 2 rally up into “Sell in May and go Away.” Which would then clear the decks for the utter collapse with nukes in the summer or financial implosion in the fall.”
Amazing how the date for WWIII, collapse, etc., just keeps getting pushed back a bit. Not long ago it was the Christmas or New Year holiday, but definitely before the inauguration to keep Trump out of office. Now everyone keeps point at “sometime in 2025,” maybe Spring or Summer.
what’s amazing to me is the same folks keep putting stock in the same “messengers”. it seems like at some point any rational clear headed thinking adult would begin to realize that all of the prognostication amounts to less than a hill of beans. no one took my $1,000 bet about democrats using alien tech before 1/20 to keep trump out of office.
I have a gutfeel that one cant “time” WW3
I think it comes fast & surprising — bolt outta the blue style.
“Elves”
When teenager Kirsten accidentally cuts her hand during an “Anti-Christmas” pagan ritual with her friends Brooke and Amy in the woods, her spilled blood awakens an ancient demonic Christmas elf. The elf is the central figure in a modern-day Neo-Nazi plot to finally bring about the master race with which Hitler had always dreamed of conquering the world.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elves_(film)
Elves (1989) Trailer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Idpx_TeR5h0
GU: “was anxious to meet Mohamed Ali (Cassius Clay)”
Chance meetings. We were friends with a guy who was Producer on classic ring boxing back in the day. My mate and I were early supporters, always buying ring-side seats.
Walking into one of the arena for a _very_ good card we were mightily miffed when seated in the second row? Huh? Tickets say ringside! In walks The Champ with his 10-12 person entourage. The man sat right in front of me and it was a special night …
Norad says Santa is on the way. Course, you folk on the naughty list can just mend ways and try again next year. Here in the heartland we have (2) more family gigs to attend with E2, DIL and E3. Way fun.
Write when on the good kid list,
Egor
ps – told E3 there were reindeer in the yard last night so he’s golden
I think that Biden or his helpers may have actually made the punishment of the criminals more severe. When in jail, time seems to move more slowly, commuting a “death” sentenance to “life” may really be a greater punishment. After all the “death” sentance will be served at a specific time while “life” could go on and on.
Point taken. It is usually economics that does you in. I would suggest that you listen to the Martin Armstrong video posted above.
My annual Christmas Present to myself.
I just zero’d the Christmas shopping credit card debt. “The Mrs” did rather well., but I went a couple hundred ‘over-budget’ – but she’s worth it.
So.., we are once again debt-free [ from our ‘own’ spending – property taxes are always on the horizon – of which, we can do nothing about – except save and plan for. ]
.
Reflecting back is fine – but planning ahead is much wiser.
.
I hope all of you & yours have a safe, quiet, warm and peaceful Christmas.
I told Michelle you spent two hours with Louis. She is SO jealous. He is her all time favorite writer.
I don’t suppose sending two hours with me would help???
Christmas to myself arrived! The ‘new’ old IC-910H ham radio arrived yesterday after only two weeks in the USPS ‘Ground DISadvantage purgatory between west coast and the islands. Most things take 30 daze to cross the ocean. Must have been the christmas load that filled up the container early. Still waiting on dummy loads for the lightning protect coax-interrupt before I hook it all up.
Just how many times is he going to say that we are all going to die, “next year” ?
It is getting really annoying.
In fact., I am getting damn sick of it. Three years straight now., saying the same thing., with slightly different twists-&-causes.., and always bragging about how he told / testified / wrote a book.., warning everyone “years ago” that it would happen.
If you constantly repeat the same ole message., over the course of decades., sooner-or-later at least a small portion of your doom-n-gloom will come ‘somewhat’ true.
Show me one damn thing that has come about in the past three years of “shouting at the masses”. Just one.
I’ll wait right here.
…, still waiting…..
Yeah – I thought so.
How in the hell does he keep getting interviews as though he is some Grand Master of the Divine Intergalactic Soothsayers. Hell., a Cajun, voodoo priestess ‘throwing bones’ seems a better procrastinator.
He may, or may not have some valid points to make.., but who cares with his constant need to kick the can further down the road.., every – single – year.., is getting friggin’ old !
Perhaps, the Hazelnutz is the blow of steel? Since it is all kinetic. Perhaps the Norway spiral light is a demo of the Hazelnuts, i.e. all demo-ing its control capabilities.
Perhaps the following article shows the ultimate betrayal by the TurkErdogan of the Puntenese and XI and will cause Chinco to invade Turkey, etc, as per Nostro…
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/washington-deploys-proxies-to-xinjiang-to-scuttle-chinas-giant-infrastructure-project/
Just not saying…