Life at the Speed of Fiction (and other Notes), CFNAI

Before rolling out today’s Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator, a discussion with a colleague over the weekend is worth examining. Because, you see, he is recently retired, multiple degrees, a world traveler, and far more.

“You really ought to write a book,” I told him.  Years ago, I’d sent him my Clube and Napier collection. Which, if you’re not familiar with, can be sampled in a “Narrative Report on the Hazard to Civilization
due to Fireballs and Comets.”

We are, among many around this website, most intrigued by “How it all Ends.”  2025 might even be “the” pivotal year.  Going into it, the risks of nuclear war are high. In fact, just today we’re hearing about a “Iran could build nuclear weapon, Trump told by White House.”  Which might well explain the market drop last week: Other colleagues are convinced that Israel was all set to “take out” the Iranian nuclear facilities last week. Which explained the late-night Biden/Harris confab and subsequent rally of the markets Friday.  We sniff news leakage maybe.

Not like we’re the only ones in the 2025 hot tub: Britain on Brink of Recession After Growth Revised to Zero Following Reeves’s Horror Budget. Gee, another government misleading (and lying) only to revise back toward Truth. Hmm… where have we heard thus and previous?

But the Clock is Still Ticking

We have to note that (so far, on a closing price basis) the Dow Jones Industrials, which had closed at 45,014.06 on December 4th, has fallen more than 2,100 points.  2,173.80 if you need precision to keep up pretenses that it matters.

Similarly, Bitcoin, which hit $106,490 is shuttling down in the $95,000-$96,000 range today (so far).  Also, a bit shy of “confidence inspiring.”

Followers of classical Dow Theory – which posits the Transport average leads the overall market – hit its high for the year at 17,798 at Thanksgiving.  Friday’s close was already down 10.7 percent.  Which, though no “lock onto the Future” does inform us that a major decline might be ahead.

The New Administration has, in our view, made the classic telemarketer mistake:  Over-promising.

Already we’re reading the much-touted deportation program will not work “as advertised” and nowhere near expectations. Trump’s mass deportation plans thrown into doubt by Republican rebels.  Some of which (same rebels) also refused to shutdown government when they had a chance.

“Over-promise” disease seems to continue, though.  ‘Vital National Asset’: Trump Threatens To Take Back Panama Canal.  But in response?  Panama’s president calls BS  in The Canal Will Remain ‘in Panamanian Hands’ – President Mulino. Which cannot be taken lightly, since China’s ChiComs are already in “effective control” of the key “locks are loaded” weapon.

Undeterred, the Prince of Promise is still rolling: Trump Suggests US Should Buy Greenland From Denmark. We’d recommend some baby steps first. Like turning Mexico into a few states, and ditto Canada.  But hey!  That’s just Reason talking.

Madness Retires

We are still braced for further mis-adventures of the dim-wit in the White House.  We refuse to rule out a “show resignation” to give Kamala Harris at least a bump in retirement if she can play at being president before Trump comes in. For now, Biden’s spree of extrajudicial largess has continued unabated as Death row: US President Joe Biden commutes sentences of 37 inmates facing execution. Near all federal death row inmates. It’s not our idea of recruiting campaign workers, but this party will do damn near anything, and this just seals it beyond any doubt.

The headline roll today, we see how Biden’s neocon handlers continue working the Propaganda Ministry issuances: Over 1,000 North Korean casualties in Russia-Ukraine war, South Korea says. Which is being parroted dutifully by all those “sons and daughters” of Project Mockingbird to manage American’s perceptions. You thought the press was “Free” did you?  Um…O-R (IV-FF), Project MOCKINGBIRD – Telephone Tap of Newspaper Columnists from the Gerald R. Ford museum was just a tip of a much longer-term control strategy.

Which – safely able to ignore public opinion – left the neocons free to piss-away $6-billion overthrowing the elected government of Ukraine and installed the penile comedic. While Joe, aided by his apparently “untouchable son” have poured well over $100-billion into Ukraine.

Of course, the end of the war will be staged to satisfy the Death Industry Bankers.  And, oh my, what a coincidence! IMF predicts timeline for end of Ukraine conflict.  All that from counting shekels? The BRICS view might be different.

Which – we trust you figured without help – could still drive Russia to first use of nukes.  Though the “peace on Earth” part may not be totally doomed as Donald Trump says Vladimir Putin wants a meeting as soon as possible about the war with Ukraine. Or not.  Could simply be too much money in the pot to call at this stage.

CFNAI

Today will feature very “thin trading” because the whales of Wall St. are all out of town; or mostly so.  You know who is who in the pricking order by how much of the week financial playahs get to avoid. Markets will be closed Wednesday for Christmas. Christmas Eve Day, (tomorrow if you’re not yet coherent) the stock markets close at 1 p.m. Eastern and bond markets close at 2 p.m.

On top of the Inbox today is the Chicago Fed report (with details here, if you really have nothing better to do):

“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.12 in November from –0.50 in October. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from October, but all four categories made negative contributions in November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.31 in November from –0.27 in October.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, was unchanged at –0.31 in November. Thirty-six of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in November, while 49 made negative contributions. Fifty-five indicators improved from October to November, while 29 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 23 made negative contributions.”

“Negative contributions” is somewhat oxymoronic. Without the oxy.

From here, some housing, consumer confidence, and other falderal will be along.  Might we suggest NoDoz?

Eyes on the Chart

Until the opening, the elves down on Wall St. are safe.

The bounce, seems to us like, is rolling over.  Not advice.

The real-deal is the Grown Ups from the Street won’t often let the inept minions play with their “important money.”  But, when everyone’s out shopping, the market is “thin” (only a few hardened gamblers at the tables) so way up, or way down, will generally become apparent.  We’ve bet against the Elves and with the Capone offspring. But maybe that’s because my parents wouldn’t buy me a toy gun for Christmas almost a century back..

Those days remind me of staring out the windows of our family home on Beacon Hill in Seattle, staring at the Sears store off in the distance through an evening light snowfall.  Little did I know the Howie Schulz gang would take it over nearly half a century later. And Jeff Bezos would “borrow” the Christmas Book idea from… but I digress.

We will be pondering this: IRS to send unclaimed stimulus checks to 1 million taxpayers worth up to $1,400.  Generosity or desperation to keep spending level to higher?

On a Roll Now?

No?  Maybe some of these stories will help.

Not exactly Rogan, but if you don’t understand “Alexa, play smooth jazz…” and you’ve already done Rogan, here’s another one with salt in the wound: Why socialists are cheering the death of insurance CEO Brian Thompson. (We tend to keep the radio/noise/music off while cooking. Gives us quiet time to ponder Euro Bytes – Does Europe Have The Will To Survive?)

“Tell me the fairy-tale again about Bitcoin being “unhackable”? Google’s Quantum Chip Solves a Problem That Would Take 10 Septillion Years in 5 Minutes.

Remember when Americans were free, not just the illegals? Check Your Privilege? Georgia Homeowner ARRESTED for Calling Police on Squatters on HER Property.  Suddenly, the Charlie Daniels Band song The Devil Went Down to Georgia explains what happened next.  And we won’t even get into the urban ills of Atlanta… Grateful Dead – Casey Jones.

Buddy of mine (Del Ray area) just went through this kind of story: The Porsche Tower in Miami: A luxury icon facing structural challenges. Not too many structural foundation repair outfits in Miami work on multi-story digs…can’t be too big a universe.

At the Ranch: Written, Specific, Measurable

Although I am planning to cut back the number (and length) of posts here on UrbanSurrival, no major changes for Peoplenomics.com are foreseen.  If I’m “here” I will be writing.

But this gets me to the Annual Goal-setting Exercise.  Seems like every year I go through this.  One, once upon a time, survived three weeks before ire judgment too it to the wall.

People will from time to time ask me fore writing advice. God knows why.

But I do give them an answer.  And if “Writing your Life’s Story” sounds like less of a waste of time than, oh, mid day television shows, here are some helpful reads to soak up.

• AP Style Book:  It used to have value. But then the AP got sucked into wokitude.  Yes, they are illegal immigrants and it’s not chairperson, it’s chair.  Unless you can find a class of “sexed chairs” in which case, I will sit corrected.
• Chicago Manual of Style:  Where I learned to turn an apostrophe into a catastrophe. (rimshot)  But, seriously this is $70 by the time you add-in tax.  And it pisses off at least one writer that trees are being killed for this hard-cover only book.  Electrons are recyclable!  Hello! Where’s some woke person when you need ’em?
• Novel Approaches are more my style.  Which is why I love Nine Day Novel: Writing Fiction: How to Use Story Structure and Write Your Fiction Novel Faster (Writing Fiction Novels Book 2).  $3-bucks, no trees, and any starving writer will find an idea in it.

A good thesaurus helps, but it’s quicker to ask Siri or her sister Alexa.

The Short Novel Writing Course

It’s ALL about editing.  And writing in the news vein, there is never time to rewrite anything. Works for the ADHD.  Still, a vicious editing of some A.I. Writing advice may help.

Set up your document:
Page formatting: Go to “Layout” and adjust margins to 1 inch on all sides, set page orientation to portrait, and choose a standard font like Times New Roman, size 12.  G: set up an Amazon writer account at https://kdp.amazon.com and download the book writing template for Word.

Line spacing: Double-space your text by selecting “Line Spacing” from the “Home” tab and choosing “Double.” It’s already in the template.  If you need it bigger when writing, scroll in with zoom.
Paragraph indentation: Ensure proper paragraph indentation by setting the “First Line” indent in the “Paragraph” settings.  Don’t bother.  Indents (except for lists) wastes space and that’s trees and that’s what makes our air workable….

Organize your chapters:
Heading styles: Use heading styles (like Heading 1, Heading 2) to clearly mark chapter titles and subheadings for easier navigation. Didn’t you get the template?
Page breaks: Insert page breaks between chapters by going to “Insert” > “Page Break” to create distinct sections. Control-[enter].  Shows how much you can trust A.I. huh?

Writing process:
Start typing: Begin writing your story, focusing on developing your plot, characters, and setting. Begin at the beginning, the middle, or the end.  I’ve tried ’em all and none seem to help.
Utilize the word count tool: Access the word count by going to the “Review” tab to monitor your progress and track your novel’s length.  It will be done when it’s done.  You’ll be tired but you’ll have gotten a great story about story-writing.
Regularly save your work: Save your document frequently to avoid losing your writing.  Critics won’t save it, for sure.

Editing and revision:
Grammar check: Use Word’s built-in grammar checker to identify potential errors and correct them.  I “write the voice in my head.”  So should you.  My voice goes off slurring, boozing, speaking in foreign tongues and accents.  Try to stay within sight of the CMS (style manual, remember?).  But only just.
Find and replace: Use the “Find and Replace” function to quickly make changes throughout the document.  In fiction, you use all the keys. Write your way out of your corners.  Tell the damn story FIRST.
Revisions tracking: If collaborating with editors or beta readers, enable “Track Changes” to see edits and comments.  People who save revisions are weak-willed sissies who are indecisive and will still want to be wet-nursed in their twenties.

What A.I. Missed

1. Write like hell, clean it up later.
2. Tell a damn story. Keep me entertained.
3. Have 2-5 “favorite authors.”  Mine are Cussler, L’Amour, McClean, DuBrul, and old radio schematics. Kimbrough is working his way up the list.
4. Writing is largely about visualization.  You see, if you can picture a scene in your mind well, the story will be good and almost write itself.  That’s because the writer’s mind is where the story lives.  After that, it’s only the mechanics of turning the pictures in Ure brain into words on paper or screen that will replicate the scene in someone else’s headspace.

I think I’m up to 13-15 books, or somewhere in there. But the fiction is the one that sells best of all of the facts.  People demonstrably tend to ignore facts, anyway, so why bother with non-fiction, right?

Non-fiction is a lot easier to write. You don’t need to visualize well.  Louis L’Amour told me his craft came easily to him because he actually went out into the West, talked endless miles of wagon ruts, and spent time talking to the real people “live out there.”

Writing a book has a lot in common with dream work, too.  It’s good therapy and gives your mind something to do, to focus on, in order to keep from wandering off.

A good book – sharing some useful knowledge of life lessons  – is something to be proud of. Until you actually finish.

About there you’ll bump into the hardest critic of them all – yourself.  And coming to terms with the ‘sonofabitch between your ears’ makes it all worthwhile.

Write when so moved,

George@Ure.net