Life at the Speed of Fiction (and other Notes), CFNAI

by

Before rolling out today’s Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator, a discussion with a colleague over the weekend is worth examining. Because, you see, he is recently retired, multiple degrees, a world traveler, and far more.

“You really ought to write a book,” I told him.  Years ago, I’d sent him my Clube and Napier collection. Which, if you’re not familiar with, can be sampled in a “Narrative Report on the Hazard to Civilization
due to Fireballs and Comets.”

We are, among many around this website, most intrigued by “How it all Ends.”  2025 might even be “the” pivotal year.  Going into it, the risks of nuclear war are high. In fact, just today we’re hearing about a “Iran could build nuclear weapon, Trump told by White House.”  Which might well explain the market drop last week: Other colleagues are convinced that Israel was all set to “take out” the Iranian nuclear facilities last week. Which explained the late-night Biden/Harris confab and subsequent rally of the markets Friday.  We sniff news leakage maybe.

Not like we’re the only ones in the 2025 hot tub: Britain on Brink of Recession After Growth Revised to Zero Following Reeves’s Horror Budget. Gee, another government misleading (and lying) only to revise back toward Truth. Hmm… where have we heard thus and previous?

But the Clock is Still Ticking

We have to note that (so far, on a closing price basis) the Dow Jones Industrials, which had closed at 45,014.06 on December 4th, has fallen more than 2,100 points.  2,173.80 if you need precision to keep up pretenses that it matters.

Similarly, Bitcoin, which hit $106,490 is shuttling down in the $95,000-$96,000 range today (so far).  Also, a bit shy of “confidence inspiring.”

Followers of classical Dow Theory – which posits the Transport average leads the overall market – hit its high for the year at 17,798 at Thanksgiving.  Friday’s close was already down 10.7 percent.  Which, though no “lock onto the Future” does inform us that a major decline might be ahead.

The New Administration has, in our view, made the classic telemarketer mistake:  Over-promising.

Already we’re reading the much-touted deportation program will not work “as advertised” and nowhere near expectations. Trump’s mass deportation plans thrown into doubt by Republican rebels.  Some of which (same rebels) also refused to shutdown government when they had a chance.

“Over-promise” disease seems to continue, though.  ‘Vital National Asset’: Trump Threatens To Take Back Panama Canal.  But in response?  Panama’s president calls BS  in The Canal Will Remain ‘in Panamanian Hands’ – President Mulino. Which cannot be taken lightly, since China’s ChiComs are already in “effective control” of the key “locks are loaded” weapon.

Undeterred, the Prince of Promise is still rolling: Trump Suggests US Should Buy Greenland From Denmark. We’d recommend some baby steps first. Like turning Mexico into a few states, and ditto Canada.  But hey!  That’s just Reason talking.

Madness Retires

We are still braced for further mis-adventures of the dim-wit in the White House.  We refuse to rule out a “show resignation” to give Kamala Harris at least a bump in retirement if she can play at being president before Trump comes in. For now, Biden’s spree of extrajudicial largess has continued unabated as Death row: US President Joe Biden commutes sentences of 37 inmates facing execution. Near all federal death row inmates. It’s not our idea of recruiting campaign workers, but this party will do damn near anything, and this just seals it beyond any doubt.

The headline roll today, we see how Biden’s neocon handlers continue working the Propaganda Ministry issuances: Over 1,000 North Korean casualties in Russia-Ukraine war, South Korea says. Which is being parroted dutifully by all those “sons and daughters” of Project Mockingbird to manage American’s perceptions. You thought the press was “Free” did you?  Um…O-R (IV-FF), Project MOCKINGBIRD – Telephone Tap of Newspaper Columnists from the Gerald R. Ford museum was just a tip of a much longer-term control strategy.

Which – safely able to ignore public opinion – left the neocons free to piss-away $6-billion overthrowing the elected government of Ukraine and installed the penile comedic. While Joe, aided by his apparently “untouchable son” have poured well over $100-billion into Ukraine.

Of course, the end of the war will be staged to satisfy the Death Industry Bankers.  And, oh my, what a coincidence! IMF predicts timeline for end of Ukraine conflict.  All that from counting shekels? The BRICS view might be different.

Which – we trust you figured without help – could still drive Russia to first use of nukes.  Though the “peace on Earth” part may not be totally doomed as Donald Trump says Vladimir Putin wants a meeting as soon as possible about the war with Ukraine. Or not.  Could simply be too much money in the pot to call at this stage.

CFNAI

Today will feature very “thin trading” because the whales of Wall St. are all out of town; or mostly so.  You know who is who in the pricking order by how much of the week financial playahs get to avoid. Markets will be closed Wednesday for Christmas. Christmas Eve Day, (tomorrow if you’re not yet coherent) the stock markets close at 1 p.m. Eastern and bond markets close at 2 p.m.

On top of the Inbox today is the Chicago Fed report (with details here, if you really have nothing better to do):

“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.12 in November from –0.50 in October. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from October, but all four categories made negative contributions in November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.31 in November from –0.27 in October.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, was unchanged at –0.31 in November. Thirty-six of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in November, while 49 made negative contributions. Fifty-five indicators improved from October to November, while 29 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 23 made negative contributions.”

“Negative contributions” is somewhat oxymoronic. Without the oxy.

From here, some housing, consumer confidence, and other falderal will be along.  Might we suggest NoDoz?

Eyes on the Chart

Until the opening, the elves down on Wall St. are safe.

The bounce, seems to us like, is rolling over.  Not advice.

The real-deal is the Grown Ups from the Street won’t often let the inept minions play with their “important money.”  But, when everyone’s out shopping, the market is “thin” (only a few hardened gamblers at the tables) so way up, or way down, will generally become apparent.  We’ve bet against the Elves and with the Capone offspring. But maybe that’s because my parents wouldn’t buy me a toy gun for Christmas almost a century back..

Those days remind me of staring out the windows of our family home on Beacon Hill in Seattle, staring at the Sears store off in the distance through an evening light snowfall.  Little did I know the Howie Schulz gang would take it over nearly half a century later. And Jeff Bezos would “borrow” the Christmas Book idea from… but I digress.

We will be pondering this: IRS to send unclaimed stimulus checks to 1 million taxpayers worth up to $1,400.  Generosity or desperation to keep spending level to higher?

On a Roll Now?

No?  Maybe some of these stories will help.

Not exactly Rogan, but if you don’t understand “Alexa, play smooth jazz…” and you’ve already done Rogan, here’s another one with salt in the wound: Why socialists are cheering the death of insurance CEO Brian Thompson. (We tend to keep the radio/noise/music off while cooking. Gives us quiet time to ponder Euro Bytes – Does Europe Have The Will To Survive?)

“Tell me the fairy-tale again about Bitcoin being “unhackable”? Google’s Quantum Chip Solves a Problem That Would Take 10 Septillion Years in 5 Minutes.

Remember when Americans were free, not just the illegals? Check Your Privilege? Georgia Homeowner ARRESTED for Calling Police on Squatters on HER Property.  Suddenly, the Charlie Daniels Band song The Devil Went Down to Georgia explains what happened next.  And we won’t even get into the urban ills of Atlanta… Grateful Dead – Casey Jones.

Buddy of mine (Del Ray area) just went through this kind of story: The Porsche Tower in Miami: A luxury icon facing structural challenges. Not too many structural foundation repair outfits in Miami work on multi-story digs…can’t be too big a universe.

At the Ranch: Written, Specific, Measurable

Although I am planning to cut back the number (and length) of posts here on UrbanSurrival, no major changes for Peoplenomics.com are foreseen.  If I’m “here” I will be writing.

But this gets me to the Annual Goal-setting Exercise.  Seems like every year I go through this.  One, once upon a time, survived three weeks before ire judgment too it to the wall.

People will from time to time ask me fore writing advice. God knows why.

But I do give them an answer.  And if “Writing your Life’s Story” sounds like less of a waste of time than, oh, mid day television shows, here are some helpful reads to soak up.

  • AP Style Book:  It used to have value. But then the AP got sucked into wokitude.  Yes, they are illegal immigrants and it’s not chairperson, it’s chair.  Unless you can find a class of “sexed chairs” in which case, I will sit corrected.
  • Chicago Manual of Style:  Where I learned to turn an apostrophe into a catastrophe. (rimshot)  But, seriously this is $70 by the time you add-in tax.  And it pisses off at least one writer that trees are being killed for this hard-cover only book.  Electrons are recyclable!  Hello! Where’s some woke person when you need ’em?
  • Novel Approaches are more my style.  Which is why I love Nine Day Novel: Writing Fiction: How to Use Story Structure and Write Your Fiction Novel Faster (Writing Fiction Novels Book 2).  $3-bucks, no trees, and any starving writer will find an idea in it.

A good thesaurus helps, but it’s quicker to ask Siri or her sister Alexa.

The Short Novel Writing Course

It’s ALL about editing.  And writing in the news vein, there is never time to rewrite anything. Works for the ADHD.  Still, a vicious editing of some A.I. Writing advice may help.

Set up your document:
Page formatting: Go to “Layout” and adjust margins to 1 inch on all sides, set page orientation to portrait, and choose a standard font like Times New Roman, size 12.  G: set up an Amazon writer account at https://kdp.amazon.com and download the book writing template for Word.

Line spacing: Double-space your text by selecting “Line Spacing” from the “Home” tab and choosing “Double.” It’s already in the template.  If you need it bigger when writing, scroll in with zoom.
Paragraph indentation: Ensure proper paragraph indentation by setting the “First Line” indent in the “Paragraph” settings.  Don’t bother.  Indents (except for lists) wastes space and that’s trees and that’s what makes our air workable….

Organize your chapters:
Heading styles: Use heading styles (like Heading 1, Heading 2) to clearly mark chapter titles and subheadings for easier navigation. Didn’t you get the template?
Page breaks: Insert page breaks between chapters by going to “Insert” > “Page Break” to create distinct sections. Control-[enter].  Shows how much you can trust A.I. huh?

Writing process:
Start typing: Begin writing your story, focusing on developing your plot, characters, and setting. Begin at the beginning, the middle, or the end.  I’ve tried ’em all and none seem to help.
Utilize the word count tool: Access the word count by going to the “Review” tab to monitor your progress and track your novel’s length.  It will be done when it’s done.  You’ll be tired but you’ll have gotten a great story about story-writing.
Regularly save your work: Save your document frequently to avoid losing your writing.  Critics won’t save it, for sure.

Editing and revision:
Grammar check: Use Word’s built-in grammar checker to identify potential errors and correct them.  I “write the voice in my head.”  So should you.  My voice goes off slurring, boozing, speaking in foreign tongues and accents.  Try to stay within sight of the CMS (style manual, remember?).  But only just.
Find and replace: Use the “Find and Replace” function to quickly make changes throughout the document.  In fiction, you use all the keys. Write your way out of your corners.  Tell the damn story FIRST.
Revisions tracking: If collaborating with editors or beta readers, enable “Track Changes” to see edits and comments.  People who save revisions are weak-willed sissies who are indecisive and will still want to be wet-nursed in their twenties.

What A.I. Missed

  1. Write like hell, clean it up later.
  2. Tell a damn story. Keep me entertained.
  3. Have 2-5 “favorite authors.”  Mine are Cussler, L’Amour, McClean, DuBrul, and old radio schematics. Kimbrough is working his way up the list.
  4. Writing is largely about visualization.  You see, if you can picture a scene in your mind well, the story will be good and almost write itself.  That’s because the writer’s mind is where the story lives.  After that, it’s only the mechanics of turning the pictures in Ure brain into words on paper or screen that will replicate the scene in someone else’s headspace.

I think I’m up to 13-15 books, or somewhere in there. But the fiction is the one that sells best of all of the facts.  People demonstrably tend to ignore facts, anyway, so why bother with non-fiction, right?

Non-fiction is a lot easier to write. You don’t need to visualize well.  Louis L’Amour told me his craft came easily to him because he actually went out into the West, talked endless miles of wagon ruts, and spent time talking to the real people “live out there.”

Writing a book has a lot in common with dream work, too.  It’s good therapy and gives your mind something to do, to focus on, in order to keep from wandering off.

A good book – sharing some useful knowledge of life lessons  – is something to be proud of. Until you actually finish.

About there you’ll bump into the hardest critic of them all – yourself.  And coming to terms with the ‘sonofabitch between your ears’ makes it all worthwhile.

Write when so moved,

George@Ure.net

63 thoughts on “Life at the Speed of Fiction (and other Notes), CFNAI”

  1. Yo Nelly,

    Still writing angry old man style as I read it…dam!
    Do You ever go POSITIVE ? Like ever ?

    Positive thinking person would see the Google article on new chip and say – POTENTIAL ! how can I invest in future, in new tech, is this an opportunity staring me in the face ? Instead you go for an attack – hahahahahahah

    Well gee lets review Companies/Stocks involved in quantum computing..hmmmm IONQ, RGTI..well what do you know ? Those badboys have started a run..UP, and still have lots of room to run.

    Overall structure of very extended market – BULLISH!

    I know its tough, but try to enjoy the Holidayz, Even you Negative Nellies are receiving tidings of Joy this time of year..ENJOY!

    * dont forget to Wave, and also regular phone camera – unfiltered works now on IFO’s (goodguys).

    • There was a paper newspaper decades ago, forget the name, that just published GOOD NEWS. I think I subscribed but it wasn’t very interesting and I think it went out of business.

      • It has also been tried in several radio markets, including L.A. All went bust in no time.
        Naked News, on the other hand? Tells you a lot about people; none of it particularly inspirational.

        • I miss “Air America.” (the radio service, not the airine.) (Come to think of it, I miss the airline, too. Flew mostly d’Havililand Twin Otters in my area.)

    • (“Still writing angry old man style as I read it…dam!
      Do You ever go POSITIVE ? Like ever ?”)
      (“Although I am planning to cut back the number (and length) of posts here on UrbanSurrival, no major changes for Peoplenomics.com are foreseen. If I’m “here” I will be writing. But this gets me to the Annual Goal-setting Exercise. Seems like every year I go through this. One, once upon a time, survived three weeks before ire judgment too it to the wall.”)

      Sorry Breaker.. that is not anger but reality….I to have been struggling with reality as we know it.. Wife retired.. she was working four days a month.. thank god she retired completely to.. since her mobility is not doing as well either.. after having a few strokes minor and major.. it shows.. and I don’t have to worry as much anymore.. the new reality is I have to work it into the budget.. the new budget limitations are essential cuts and the new figure to work with.. George has done all of us a wonderful service by bringing us a place to share rant and just communicate.. I get his wanting to cut back.. he deserves that.. to put a positive foot forward….. now that is interesting …
      LOL LOL LOL god that is really hard to do that. Especially now for me with reality smacking you in the chops every way you look.. I have been dealing with the stark reality of my new world of finances here.. Mr. MUD will have to be my new moniker here LOL I know the kids are really upset.. I have been in much worse spots in my life so this is a challenge but definately not as bad as I have seen it…With there actually being no real increases in our retirement income and the wife no longer working we have a set income.. even with the four days a month.. and the increase in home taxes and the other increases after the car and home insurances this month without that extra income.. my new reality for this month is.. I have a grand total of 209.00 left for the month after the loan deduction coming up for dental expenses.. We will actually have a grand total for gas, food, entertainment and anything else that could possibly come up in the next four weeks …61.00 so I get it.. its not anger but it is hard to stay positive when you are faced with reality of what we have to work with.. I do have fifty bucks in savings and an overdraft protection of a hundred and fifty.. time to find part time work.. But until then just like the people in low income housing across the street that had to move because they didn’t make enough income to pay low income housing. or an ex boss that is being forced to sell his home and move into a camper money is tight for everyone…. there are huge cuts coming..HUGE..It is life in the fast lane.. and knowing that there are others in way worse shape than I am my position is just the hickup.. you learn to deal with it..work it out the best you can..
      EVERYONE… deals with their own set of challenges.. our challenges has been astronomical medical expenses most of the time. This time its beyond medical it is just the fact of life.. After this administration made horrible economic situation it has affected everyone across the country.. probably why Trump won in a landslide.. even now our congress is still not around or actively doing anything this administration is doing even more to undermine the whole taxpaying public.. its stupidity is beyond belief.. and even worse.. its beyond belief that NO ONE in congress sees any of what they are doing as stupid..they in turn don’t even care enough to come to work and deal with it.. kind of reminds me maybe they are ostriches and are just sticking their ugly mugs in the sand so they don’t have to deal with any of what is going on…

      just call me Mr. Mudd
      https://youtu.be/4WFUPMS3fx0?si=fU3kfT-G8bX-dn3M

    • I tend to think along George’s lines e.g. “what can possibly go wrong?” But a bit of good cheer can be found by joining (it’s free) the rationaloptimistsociety.com The most recent post, for example, is an excellent summary of the state of the technology and the potential impact of additive manufacturing.

  2. “the risks of nuclear war are high”

    Generally it’s been that way everyday of our lives. The Cuban Missile Crisis was a lifetime ago. Before the 1960’s it was the world lucked out with the West developing nuclear weapons over Germany… but Russians stole the secrets and are a threat.

    20, 30 years after the CMC Americans were sold on SDI because of ‘the threat’. During this time the threat collapsed. But Iran has been developing since 1979, weeks away…. weeks!

    20, 30 years after SDI to combat the threat, “As of September 30, 2024, the U.S. Ukraine response funding totals nearly $183 billion, with $130.1 billion obligated and $86.7 billion disbursed.”

    Tomorrow…. the space alien war begins.

    An internal threat and now an external threat. Combating threats is expensive.

  3. I don’t think many posters here click to that leftist rag, Drudge but….

    Drudge reports:

    “Social media firms will use facial recognition age checks to “drive out” under-age children from their sites, under plans to be announced next month by Ofcom.”

    Connecting to the Internet is going to change. Everyone will need a method to show their face. At least during logon. The alternative is don’t participate and go back to cash/mail/shopping at the mall.

    • I use Drudge on occasion as a free version of the NY Times to check out what others are thinking. I refuse to pay for news media other than PN and certainly not for propaganda media.

      The facial thing bothers me. It’s something I try to keep off the net. Perhaps AI can present a credible animated face, but it’s faced with another AI trying to eliminate it. There may be a business model for a paid site that grabs info and presents it to you without invasive personal info gathering. Facebook is already unusable without documenting yourself. No doubt others will follow.

      • IMO facial recognition the way they are setting it up won’t work. It’s a first step. The camel’s nose if you will.

        .GOV is starting with an age estimation software similar to what Google created. That’s how we underagers would buy liquor – get the hairiest friend to grow a beard then take him to the shady part of town and let the shopkeeper estimate.

        Here’s the link:

        Social media firms to be forced to ‘drive out’ under-age users

        Watchdog will make apps use facial recognition and other age checks to identify children

        https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/12/22/social-media-firms-to-be-forced-to-drive-out-under-age-user/

        Google develops selfie scanning software ahead of porn crackdown

        https://finance.yahoo.com/news/google-develops-selfie-scanning-software-171645305.html

        Also in May comes travel changes –

        “Starting May 7, 2025, domestic travelers in the United States will need a Real ID-compliant driver’s license or other acceptable form of identification to board commercial aircraft”

      • “Facebook is already unusable without documenting yourself.”

        Not true. I have an alternative name/nym address, age, and in-general, identity on farcebook. I’m sure a security wonk like me could discover my true particulars, but (s)he’d have to be motivated to do so. I never post, nor do I make compromising PMs/DMs, so I’m not likely to ever throw up a flag.

        FR is easily defeated with a photo. The secret is to defeat it now, then use your “confirmed” and “verified” identity to verify yourself to anyone else who asks. Put a piece of electrical tape over every camera, to prevent a surreptitious photo cap from being taken (everyone should do this, anyway, lest you wish to populate pornsites’ “amateur photos” sections…

  4. Where’s Waldo ?

    “Missing” Congresswoman Kay Granger
    (R-TX) who hasn’t been seen for 6 months, was found living in a dementia care facility.
    She’s been in office since 1997. She’s 81 years old.

    http://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/what-happened-to-texas-congresswoman-kay-granger.html?utm_source=msn&utm_medium=f1&utm_campaign=feed-part

    What’s next, propping up dead bodies ? Or are they already doing that? Hmmm.

    UnitedHealthcare’s
    Facebook Post About Slain CEO Flooded With
    ‘Haha’ Reactions …

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/unitedhealthcares-facebook-post-slain-ceo-223941960.html

    Ya know, when someone denies your claim that you need approved, because you will die without approval for a specific treatment, is in a sense, murder. I think more than “conservatives” were cheering. Just sayin.

    • I agree with George that one should not speak ill of the dead, though sometimes it is tempting. Medical “insurance” has(IMHO) always been a scam, since the company you’re depending on is not on your side. A deliberately created adversarial situation when medically compromised seems to be ethically wrong. Personally, keeping cash in reserve and avoiding the medical system as much as possible has been my approach. Don’t even get me started on the integrated medical records aggregated under HIPAA!

    • wheres Waldo…
      probably with the Congress with his head up his butt LOL or home like they are trying to ignore all this crap that is going on.. the true state of the Union

    • I definately get the frustration with insurance companies.. taxpayers pay out what close to two trillion a year for coverage that is suppose to take care of medical expenses.. the medical insurance companies also have to show profits and they show phenominal profits.. all after paying their cost of operation and what they pay out.. in turn people that pay for the coverage is denied services..
      a tragic loss.. and not his fault its the business models.. just like our paying out a hundred billion a year for medical research for new pharmaceuticals only to be required to pay tens of thousand of percent more for those very drugs we paid for the research.. its the business model.. by killing of the ceo was horrific act.. definitely wrong in every aspect.. but frustrating as well .. I believe they will have an extremely hard time finding anyone that will be able to sit on the jury that hasn’t had some sort of experience with the medical industry or the insurance industry, that won’t be sympathetic to someone losing his sanity enough to commit such a horrific crime…. I fought for over a year on what they should have paid out was two grand and to get me to stop bitching tossed me a couple hundred in exchange.. its the business model to blame for it all.. but then… that is the nature of business.. sell a product and make money …you cannot have a company that doesn’t make any money.. (unless your the government they just make more money print more numbers)

    • Makes one wonder as to whom is the Beneficiary of his policy and then ya gotta wonder if his company is going to… you know,… the old deny, defend, depose, 3 step that they and the rest are known to devolve to.
      Stranger things when there’s a murder.

    • “UnitedHealthcare’s
      Facebook Post About Slain CEO Flooded With
      ‘Haha’ Reactions …”

      So, would it be okay for someone to execute a member of each of their families?

      ” I think more than “conservatives” were cheering.”

      I think NO conservatives were cheering. “Conservatives tend to be honest, honorable, and have a strong sense of “fair play.” No one, not even the most despicable POS on the planet, deserves to be murdered by a back-shooting coward.

      I detest insurance. It is a nested Ponzi scheme which is married to everything that it insures for (or against), which have been made into Ponzi schemes themselves, by the insurance companies. I believe it should be abolished, and made illegal.

      The reason the newest chemotherapy shot costs $303,000, is because insurance companies will pay that, or nearly that. If there were no insurance, that shot would probably cost under $100, because the pharmco might have trouble making money from selling a $100 shot, but it would find it impossible to make money (or even survive) from selling zero shots.

      With all that said, if I contracted a potentially terminal affliction and my insurance denied payment for its treatment, I wouldn’t shoot the CEO. I would financially destroy him(her) and in so doing acquire the funds to pay outright for my treatment. The coward who shot the CEO is a communist, spoiled brat rich kid. He did it to off a CEO, not as revenge for any possible sleight. I personally hope he gets the death penalty, but I hope the BoP keeps him in GenPop until they juice him. ‘Pretty sure a backshooter wouldn’t fare any better than a child rapist, and I’m okay with that.

      • Mental disease takes many forms, some of which remain buried inside a twisted mind until something like this happens. I am more concerned about the twisted minds that lift this guy to the level of a hero.

  5. “Followers of classical Dow Theory – which posits the Transport average leads the overall market – hit its high for the year at 17,798 at Thanksgiving. Friday’s close was already down 10.7 percent. Which, though no “lock onto the Future” does inform us that a major decline might be ahead.”

    Rick Ackerman: Saturday’s Barrons cover rang the bell on the end of the bull market. The cover headline said, “Stocks Could Gain Another 20% in 2025. Embrace the Bubble”. Contrary indicators never get better than that! The Barron’s bullish headline indicator was coined by famed market technician Martin Zweig. Zweig argued that Barron’s cover stories on market extremes were contrary indicators. So, what we have is a short-covering rally by swing traders to be followed with a painful drop of over 15%.

    https://www.howestreet.com/2024/12/larrys-commentary/

    • Marty Zweig was a good trader /investor. When he died allegedly he owned the largest Apartment /Condo in NYC, or some such marker as to his success.

      One thing he always mentioned was “Don’t Fight The Fed” … and he was NOT talking about interest rates but MONEY SUPPLY, which is the real Mother’s Milk of markets. (I haven’t look at the money supply numbers for about 3 months but an article from last week said that the Fed was STILL reducing the money supply – which they fed fed fed during the Covid lockdown)

      Thanks for the link

  6. Looks like the pedo joe is going to vacation in St. Croix after Christmas day, then going to visit the pedo king in the vatican. It will be down to about the last week for him to give cumhola the reins.

    • here is a joke I heard yesterday…..

      there are three people on the titanic.. a lawyer, a priest and a child…. the titanic hit the iceberg and the steward came to get the people loaded.. saying women and children first.. the lawyer looks at the priest and scoffs.. well F#$k the kid.. the priest looks over at him and says..
      do you really think we have enough time..

  7. George,
    I would add 2 more books to your list. The first is Strunk & White “The Elements of Style”. The second is ” Eats,Shoots and Leaves”.

    • I rather believe that “style comes from within.” Take Eric Hofer, for example. Very Stylish writer in a practical, down on the docks way. Doubt he read it.
      On the other hand (eating shoots and such) this is a dandy. And for those who are not as well read as our Librarian, the Amazon listing ‘splains you’ this way:
      “A panda walks into a café. He orders a sandwich, eats it, then draws a gun and fires two shots in the air.

      “Why?” asks the confused waiter, as the panda makes towards the exit. The panda produces a badly punctuated wildlife manual and tosses it over his shoulder.

      “I’m a panda,” he says at the door. “Look it up.”

      The waiter turns to the relevant entry and, sure enough, finds an explanation.

      “Panda. Large black-and-white bear-like mammal, native to China. Eats, shoots and leaves.”

      To paraphrase Biff in B2TTF-2 I think I’ll make like a log and leaf now.

    • Down in Freemantle for the America’s Cup many years ago and a sweet Oz woman said, ” why are Oz men like the Koala Bear , our national animal? Because they eat, shoots and leaves”… and that made being a Yank quite attractive.
      Me and my speed sailing partner were giving a yacht club talk and this pretty lass asked him how he got his arms so big and strong. He said, “I never rest on my elbows”. The room absolutely exploded laughing, she blushed, and he got laid.
      Good line, eh?
      Stiks

  8. “Negative contributions”

    I contribute to the Stream, almost entirely spew of pixels vs. hard copy. The one instance where we (Royal) were promised an advance and royalties for a factual fast book? Uhm, I ghost wrote sections and proof read the rest. Repeatedly. Tiring duty. Nope. Intermittent works for me.

    Always up for some “Negative contributions” as … it’s the least I can do which happens to be my best thing. Newsflash: the beard growing is going really well. I am past Hemingway and pondering ZZ Top? Mrs. E retains veto power but … it’s the least I can do.

    We remain at E3’s home, being Grandma and Grandpa day care while doing family gigs (huge farm families) which is mighty entertaining. Tonight was day off in a 3:4 affair but … my DIL decided to host fam. here? Sure. Watch for me on the couch … it’s the least I can do.

    We live in dangerous times. Buckle up, remain near the fox hole rim with helmet nearby. But (there’s always a butt), from the late Art Cashin (RIP) per older floor trader, the end of the world comes only once and them’s lousy odds.

    Enjoy the season,
    Egor

    ps – gathering of Ravens yesterday. Is this a bad thing? Nah

    • Yep, damn shame about Art Cashin passing. He was a Peoplenomics subscriber from 2012 to 2020 – something we don’t talk about, but a great guy and one of the best. Never heard anyone say a bad thing about him. Which in today’s world is one hell of a benchmark.

      • He was a great drinker and raconteur, a teller of stories.

        For decades, he assembled a group of like-minded friends every day after trading halted, first at the bar at the NYSE luncheon club, then across the street at Bobby Van’s Steakhouse, where the group came to be known as the “Friends of Fermentation.” His drink was Dewar’s, always on the rocks.

        Cashin refused to use credit cards and paid for everything, particularly his voluminous bar bills, with cash, saying he cherished his anonymity. He never learned to use a computer — his notes were hand-written and then sent to his assistant. For years, he used an obsolete flip phone that he rarely answered.

        His desk was piled high with papers he had accumulated over the decades. At times, it resembled a recycling facility.

        Cashin’s suits were usually rumpled and his ties were always obsolete.

        I love this part.., says a lot:
        In lieu of flowers, the family kindly requests donations be made to the Arthur D. Cashin Jr. Memorial Scholarship at Xavier High School.[ NY / NY ]

    • Dude,

      “a gathering of Ravens” – WTF !? you know it is not a “gathering” – this is bad info = FALSE.

      This is a conspiracy ! of Raven Fans – Flag thrown frm the stands flutters down on Field.. Ure, in black&white striped shirt standing there with whistle&flag stuck up his tuckus..good look for the TV viewers.

      All a total waste of time – as even bookmakers agree, as evidenced by huge buyout offer (s) frm Fanduel on my Burds future bet (s) – thats right the Superbowl Trophy is going back to the Aerie in the City of Brotherly LOVE..!

      Link 2 fly Lincoln fly – https://www.inquirer.com/eagles/a/eagles-game-bald-eagle-flight-lincoln-financial-field-20241208.html

      a conspiracy, dammit.

      • We seemed to have crossed the end zone into sportacus. Since my son would never to a bride for me (he knows I wouldn’t pardon his sorry ass), I am open to bribes.
        As my consigliere will attest, I have a taste for Scotch.
        Bidding starts at a pint for $10 bucks.
        Takers>?
        Buy me! I’m cheap. And unlike the rest, honest, too. Which should be worth more than BTC…

  9. What if we got it wrong; this reality is not a learning center but a last chance to redeem ourselves? If consciousness is what underlies all, then this reality and lower dimensions maybe the descending rungs of the ladder. If our higher spiritual self was found wanting or under performing We may have been put here, as an opportunity to reclaim our place in the higher realms, but free will has to be exercised properly. Otherwise, at the end of our term here, it is decided if we are to be given another chance in the upper realms or moved down to a lower level. Life review becomes a judgement.

    • If you are correct before you can redeem you’ll need to know the reason why you were placed in this realm. Separately you don’t have to accept why you were placed here, but you need to know otherwise redemption is a guess, maybe impossible.

      Got any ideas why there’s anything?

  10. i believe the panama treaty says that it is null and void if a foreign power controls the canal.

  12. Mr. Ure, No one will know how much your comment means to me.
    Although I use Libre Open Office to write my 26 books, your writer’s suggestions are still valid and on the mark.

  13. I wasn’t planning on going, but in case it is on your vacation agenda…,

    The United States has urged its citizens to leave Belarus immediately and has updated its travel advisory to Level 4: Do Not Travel status Department of State .

    The advisory highlights the risks for US citizens, including the arbitrary enforcement of local laws by the Belarusian authorities, the risk of detention, and Belarus’s support for Russian aggression against Ukraine.

    The US Department of State also reminded that consular services for US citizens in Belarus are unavailable following the closure of the US Embassy in Minsk on February 28, 2022.

    Belarusian Security Services monitor citizens’ electronic communications within the country. There have been reports of foreigners being detained due to information on their devices, even if it was created outside Belarus.

    The US and Canada have imposed new sanctions on Belarus this year.
    The US Congress is assessing the nuclear threat posed by Belarus this year.

    .., and it took the State Department nearly two years to issue this warning – because ?

  14. (“here’s another one with salt in the wound: Why socialists are cheering the death of insurance CEO Brian Thompson. “)

    I feel sad for his family the tragic loss… I get the frustraition.. I fought a year trying to get Health insurance to even acknowledge claims… its the business model.. and after careful look at the business model.. I actually don’t think they can fix it.. sure taxpayers pay enough in to fix the situation in what they pay in for insurances.. I am insurance poor… but the reality of how many people rely on the business model to make their incomes.. to fix it leaves millions of people without an income.. to fix the countries debt.. well it is beyond fixing with current taxs.. the only logical action is to.. increase everyones taxes and pull all of our military funding away and back home just to make the interest payments on the currant debt in a year that won’t even work…. or do what I think would be the worst way and go bankrupt on the debt get rid of the federal reserve go total zimbabwe and start the country from square one all over again with a complete new form of currency backed by whatever they can back it with..
    we were in a serious situation before after the Biden administrations idiocy it is beyond that now..

    • Apparently the Ins Co head and his wife were living separate lives in different houses and had been for a number of years, though only about a mile apart (so the reports I read said). For whatever reason they had chosen to NOT get divorced.

      In addition their kids lived with his wife, though I am unsure as to if they were old enough to be going to college (based on his age I would assume so). If so they would only be home during the holidays and maybe in the summer.

      I will say we did NOT see on the news any grieving wife or kids after the shooting, only some released statements.

  16. (“Though the “peace on Earth” part may not be totally doomed as Donald Trump says Vladimir Putin wants a meeting as soon as possible about the war with Ukraine. Or not. Could simply be too much money in the pot to call at this stage.”)

    Hmm.. could that be why they are sending US missile at his home town? to entice him to escalate this from a regional military action into a world war..

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-drone-attack-forces-closure-two-moscow-airports-2024-11-10/

    Putin has shown great restraint up to this point.. but the citizens are up in arms over that restraint and with the missiles hitting close to home… could their screams to be more aggressive and the attacks close to home and the kremlin actually persuade him to become more aggressive and share the devastation.. big issues there..
    (“Most Russians might not identify with the regime, but they have consolidated around the Kremlin, which they believe to be fighting tooth and nail against a West that is seeking to destroy Russia.”)
    https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/11/alternate-reality-how-russian-society-learned-to-stop-worrying-about-the-war?lang=en
    what the Biden administration has done is the opposite of what they thought would happen… instead of tearing them apart.. they are becoming more solidified… kind of like the twin towers being taken down by terrorists or the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.. Those attacks drew support of the people against the war on terror.. what is happening now is the reverse we are now the ones seen as the terrorists and invading army.. the people and the hard liners in Russia now see the UK and the USA and all NATO countries are out to totally destroy them and their way of life.. We are being seen as terrorists.. what could possibly happen if we back that bear into a corner. will there be enough to insure that there is going to be a fight.. Will the citizens of Russia see that they to fight to survive as a country.. will this escalate far enough that this will hit us here at home.. god I hope not but this administration is sure doing absolutely everything it can to see it become a reality before Trump sits in the seat again.. It appears that they and our congress is trying to do absolutely everything they can to put enough road blocks in place to stop any improvements..our own security as a country is being destroyed and with out anyone in congress seeing it as necessary to go back and deal with it.. this is the most shocking thing….

    • phil schnieder dropping truth bombs, is seen holding one in video..an alien artifact. This from early 90’s – where he explains/describes adrenochrome. Basic message/warning from presentation – new world order IS the Alien Agenda .

      -https://x.com/i/status/1870687349090242702

      nanu nanu

  21. The three top most boring films in all of history – according to GenX and Millennials.
    1] Citizen Caine
    2] Gone With The Wind
    3] 2001: A Space Odyssey
    .
    I do believe we have a major culture-clash going on.

  22. Let me think about this, you actually met Louis L’Amour? And visited with him? What an interesting time that must have been.

    • Yeah, it was a great afternoon. He was in town (Seattle, staying at the Westin) where I was a rock n roll turned country news director (KOL then KMPS) and L’Amour was on a book tour. Seems like all the new writers of the era (1970’s) would stay at the Westin – which locals insisted “looked like two corn cobs”. The food was great at the Palm Court on the main level. But where I put away too many martinis was downstairs at the Trader Vics. It was here I learned economics from the late Dr. Paul Erdman. “The Silver Bears” and “Crash of ’79” and many others. Unlike America, Swiss banking laws put the CEOs in prison (right or wrong) for the misdeeds of the underlings, so that’s how Erdman had time to write his first novels. I digress…

      L’Amour was tall, somewhere between thin and lanky, wiry would be good, and had a beer while we talked for almost two hours, most of it being caught on tape for my weekend public affairs program “introspect” where I had all kinds of great guests – People like Richard Bach, Raymond Moody, Bob Cummings, the list went on and on. L’Amour was a traditional Western guy and I was impressed by the hard crease in his jeans. In western circles, a good, solid, crease in jeans is a kind of status symbol, though people who haven’t lived in the “real west” tend not to notice. My wife (of now 25-years) had been a rodeo “timer” back in her western days and men in the west had a real “thing” about creased jeans…part of “strack” if you follow.

      The most interesting part with L’Amour about his time “on the beach” down at San Pedro. He was trying to catch a merchant marine ride/job on a tramp steamer to go see Asia. That would turn into later short stories. He’d gone to the seaman’s center where they had collections of very small books, the Everyman’s Library mini pocketbooks. These are tiny books, some smaller than a regular paperback. Many were small enough to fit in a wandering man’s shirt pocket. They can still be found on eBay – and there’s a cult following collecting them. The older and smaller, the better.

      Seamen were very good about taking these books from whatever seaman’s center they visited. It was very poor form not to pass-on a book when done. In a way, it was a low brow “original library lending system.” Run on an “honor system.” Back when there was such a thing.

      Once L’Amour got a ship, he would read to his crewmates, late at night up in the forecastle of the ship under (usually) a single swinging bulb. Where he said the crew (even those weak on english_) would gather around to hear the stories. Some were the classics, and there was Jack London, Twain and lots of others. There was no radio and it was a captive audience.

      After this, he got into how (and this was in the writing/reporting part as I recall) he had walked the old wagon roads and talked with whoever he could meet out there. Many of the old families along the trails west still had vivid memories of the people, the outlaws,the wagon trains, and the settling of a territory fresh from either their own memory if old, or from parents and grandparents if younger.

      He was a marvelous fellow – kind of guy you couldn’t help but listen to and respect because he really walked the talk – saw all the places he wrote about, with the exception of Siberia whih was featured in his novel “Last of the Breed.” But even here, there was a large portion related to Native Americans, and their skills. Which were woven into a masterful tale of escape from Soviet Russia and “walking out” to Alaska by way of Siberia. While being pursued by a saddistic tracker.

      Along the same lines (writers I’ve been priviledged to meet and interview) I also taped James Michener when “Sports in America” came out. Time has dulled a lot of the memory of that book, but it was a fascinating tale laying out how “sports” in America went from being street level boxing ( in saloons, and work camps) into more organized and then how it all got on the road to mass popularization (and eventually monetization).

      By the time I got to the Cayman Islands (by now an airline exec, 1984) I was anxious to meet Mohamed Ali (Cassius Clay) and that experience was highlighted by the handshake. I have reasonably sized hands, you see. But when I shook Ali’s hand (he was doing a fund raiser for the local boy’s club in Georgetown) it was like my hand was child-sized. His hands were enormous! Ever since that time, when in bars and dives, I’d always notice people’s hands. And wonder (still in awe) at how much of the time “reg’lar people” just blew smoke. Ali was THE real deal as I judged his hand probably weighed more than my hand plus the whole of my forearm to well past the elbow…

      It’s been an “adventurer’s life” no question – such that whebn time comes, my Life Review ought to be pretty good. Everty Christmas, I sit back and measure my life a bit. One way is to ask “Is there anyone who’s life youy would trade” for your own?

      I can honestly say “No, thanks.” It’s as good a measure of a well-played life as any I’ve found.

      73 ac7x

  23. re: “Life at the Speed of Fiction”
    feat: “The Master and Margarita”, 2024

    Folks,

    “The Master and Margarita” is a 2024 movie based upon the Stalin-era novel by the Kyiv-born author Mikhail Bulgakov who passed in 1940. It is a satire about Soviet Russia. The 2024 movie adaption co-writer and director is an American, Michael Lockshin. He is the son of the infamous Dr. Arnold Lockshin formerly of Houston, Texas who accepted asylum in Moscow in 1986 receiving Russian citizenship in 1992 and appears still to be there.

    Last week a senior Moscow military official was assassinated on a Moscow street and the Ukrainian SBU took responsibility as quoted by Western msm.

    Shortly thereafter Kyiv was struck by a missile barrage last Thursday night. Friday morning President Zelensky briefly remarked without elaboration on his Telegram channel that “Kyiv had cleared up the debris”. The same day just before noon “Forbes” pictured a forlorn-looking Mayor of Kyiv on an unnamed downtown street surrounded by damaged buildings and littered streets. Readers were advised that all five incoming Russian missiles had been shot down.

    At 0200 on the same Friday morning, Russian msm “Shot” offered a four line statement informing as follows: “Consequences of the Russian Armed Forces strike on the SBU command post at 75 Antonovycha Street (former Gorky Street) in Kiev.” (nb: Professor Antonovycha was a 19th century Ukrainian nationalist.) An image taken at street level was also offered which showed a building with its windows blown out and several burned out vehicles on the street.

    An adjacent building tower also appeared to have sustained blast damage. It is a well-known chain hotel. This particular one turned out to be managed by a London entity but is owned by a Kyiv-born Ukrainian who is on the board of Canada-based Ukrainian service organization. A check of the hotel website advises that it “…is temporarily closed. …Thank you for your understanding”.

    The Russian-alleged command post address is extant on Google. Someone has tagged the location as “Mastershini”.

  24. Folks,
    My memory just jogged about a new spin for me at least on personal banking. The multi-factor identification subject has been gradually creeping up on some of my online banking apps.

    However today I went in person to a teller where typically I swipe my card and get down to business. This time the teller as mandated by their screen process requested to generate a code by text to my phone for verification. My mind went through a quick holiday season flow-through chart which pointed to starting a future discussion at a higher level than with a minimum wage teller. The texted code worked.

    Although it was only midday, the atm had run out of large denomination banknotes. I had received the sole remaining option of a wad of $20 notes. The teller kindly was able to exchange for $50’s.

  25. It’s Christmas! Must watch!

    Santa Claus Conquers the Martians (1964) Trailer

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyaJkLJK4gM

    Santa Claus Conquers The Martians – 60th Anniversary screenings on December 15, 16!

    Advance ticket info now available for Santa Claus Conquers The Martians!

    Walking in a winter weirdoland! Preserved from Something Weird’s colorful 16mm print and presented in a brand new Roadshow Edition with vintage ads and trailers.

    An infamous, ultra-cheap mindmelter starring young Pia Zadora (Hairspray) that follows the kidnapping of Santa and two Earth children by Martians.

    “It’s bad fun at its best.” (Movie Views)

    “a cult classic.” (TV Guide)

    “unintentionally hilarious” (From The Front Row)

    https://mayfairtheatre.ca/movie/santa-conquers-martians/

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