Not too many people speak fondly of Thomas Bayes. But, in the world of statistics Bayesian analysis. We will save the in-depth article on the application of Baye’s theory to improve trading returns while being able to make your “news predictions” nearly god-like in their accuracy. Because the real point is that “One of the many applications of Bayes’ theorem is Bayesian inference, a particular approach to statistical inference.”
And it’s simple; being applicable to both markets and news flows.
Which gets us to an upcoming Peoplenomics article – because this is one of those studies which (like a daily low-dose aspirin for oldsters like us) is so important that we should reveal a bit of the thinking to non-subscribers to our Peoplenomics.com reports.
Let’s go back to the snip of our Aggregate Index work from Monday’s column and update it with both the ,low of yesterday’s trading (the ‘x’ just right of the (4) upper right) and the expected low this morning (right on our long-term trend line).
In other words, in the manic-panic of Monday’s over-reaction, we dropped below a (visual, not calculated) trend channel. And, if the early futures today are guessing right, a close today at (or above) the trend line COULD be setting the stage for a rally which MIGHT go back to the top of the trend channel and give us an early summer completion of (5).
Of course, if the Chinese delegation stomps out of the much-touted trade talks with Trump, well, the X low of Monday would be the Wave 1 down of a broken trend. Peoplenomics subscribers c an load up the Elliott calculator that’s in the Master Index in the Resource section and forecast their own outcomes to the downside.
Today, near the close, the Fed will issue its consumer debt (which they call Consumer Creditor because they are the creditors, right?). If it moves markets one way, or the other, trade will still likely work out.
The reason is two-fold. First, the US has the largest consumer class in the world. Much as China wants to migrate its population upscale, there’s no way to take that much production and consume it internally – yet.
At the same time, despite all the MAGA hype, the US still has to rely on Asian countries for a huge fraction of our national consumption.
China and the U.S, should be moving toward an agreement, but there are, as we see it, likely side-deals all over the place. Pretend to be a mouse (in the Oval Ofrfice?) asnd hearinjg snips like this:
- “We will go for a tariff of x on Y, but you keep carriers 20-miles from our newly built islands...”
- “OK, but you cut down the fentanyl coming in from Mexico.” (The linked NY Times story came out April Fool’s Day.)
- “Perhaps, but we need to increase Mexico contain landings by 25% then in order for the cartels to compensate up…”
- “OK, but no mixing of drug money with drug profits to buy anything in North America, are we agreed?”
- “Not quite. We want a larger aircraft segment so we will need to expand cooperation with Boeing, so no tariffs on anything aircraft or avionics related…”
- “Maybe, but you must reveal who sold our our NSA tracking technology….”
- …and so it would go…
This is what’s behind the hysterical headlines this morning, such as “White House Ratchets up Trade Fight” and “China’s top trade negotiator to visit US despite tariffs.“.
Some very good background in the NY Times DealBook Briefing: Trump Wasn’t Joking About New Tariffs on China., We like the Times business section and wish the rest of the paper was as balanced.
Ideally, we’d like to see the talks collapse – momentarily – because that could set up a nice retest of the Monday lows. Will it happen? We sit – driven by events in our odd Bayesian way looking at the aggregated market view, Elliott and trend channels realizing that in a trade war, the world loses.
When the smoke clears, look for a trade deal that changes little yet gives each side some (false) basis for overblown headlines of success.
The futures were dropping again, 2-hours before the open. The tension seems almost palpable, but in reality it looks to us like the U.S. is in a deeply dysfunctional, co-dependent relationship with an older country with a tendency toward abuse if they veer from parental instructions from Beijing.
More coffee? As we wait for the “retest of ‘x’.
BS on BS Department
We are still seeing political headlines that leave us agawk. Not so much with the underlying stories (like “Biden takes 32-point lead over Sanders in new 2020 poll”) but because there are so many stupid pretenders to power on the left.
You know, for a political party that is nominally touting working together and supporting the working man, democrats seem to be lining up to screw the pooch with tax hikes and more free lunch programs that everyone (but them) pay for…
Worth Your Attention
Climate Change or Just More Hot Air? We presented the latest solar cycle progression data for you Monday in this column. And there’s no change in the outlook (if you know now to import a simple .CSV file into Excel) that we’re on the possible cusp of a Maunder Minimum replay.
Thus, we got a chuckle reading how NBC reporter scolded on air after comparing UN climate change report to alien invasion. Yes sir, thought control begins on the set…
Headline-driven madness in stories like this one, too: World celebrates a new royal baby. Except, we don’t give a rip. World already has too much management and children. The more meaningful marital stories are like “Bride market trafficks Pakistani Christian women to China.”
Robots on the march: Coming soon to a construction site near you as Construction Robotics Market to Reach $226 Million Worldwide by 2025, According to Tractica.
CNN’s Lost Touch with Reality? Yes, they are still trying to rewrite the 2016 election outcome. Read “Can Trump be forced to accept electoral defeat?” and you’ll maybe get a hint at why their ratings have fallen…
The Electoral College, like Nancy Pelosi, isn’t going anywhere.
New Moniker time? “A killer asteroid is coming — we don’t know when (so let’s be ready), Bill Nye says.: How about a rebrand as “Bill Nye, the Hysteria Guy?
Shop until you drop? Amazon Go opens for the first time in New York. And the cashier-free store will accept cash. Which gets us to a familiar tune around here: Why isn’t the FedGov busy whacking airlines and others who demand credit cards when you offer them cash? Says it’s good for all debts public and private, does it not?
EMP-Susceptible Money Report: Bitcoin at $5,895 this morning for the electronically and history-of-bubbles-impaired. Pretend it’s 1636…
The “Earthquake Tireds” That Elaine and I both suffered from this weekend turned revealed themselves Monday afternoon. ”
Event type: Earthquake
Region: eastern New Guinea region, Papua New Guinea
Geographic coordinates: 6.977S, 146.440E
Elaine had been wandering around Sunday afternoon saying “Today feels so unreal…like something big is going to happen…” Depending on where you were, it did. Related: Dream Realms are incredibly active this week, too. Geo-electric?
Speaking of down that way…
Another Country Heard From
Always a pleasure to catch-up with the goings-on down in Jakarta where portable Bureau Chief Bernard Grover hangs out.
Stumbled into a new cottage industry here.
Mother-in-law died a month ago, leaving a relic Dutch-era safe worth a small fortune on the antiquities market. But, she also revealed that she had buried a stash of gold under the house and couldn’t remember where.
Well, being the enterprising soul that I am, I bought a Fisher F22 metal detector and set about scanning the house. I found not 1, not 2, but 3 separate stashes of Suharto-era ingots worth another small fortune.
I’ve now parlayed that success into a service, since no Indonesians apparently have ever heard of metal detectors, much less use them as a hobby. Folks call me in to find legendary family fortunes buried on their property. I charge 10% of any finding, payable immediately (of course). I have also discovered a well-kept secret – there are alluvial gold deposits in Java, which I previously thought were limited to Sulawesi and Papua. So far, rivers in the mountains have yielded some gold dust, but hopes run high.
I’m also planning a trip to Gunung Padang, i.e. the Java Pyramid, to do some relic hunting.
Just a thought for enterprising souls looking for a way to get the hell out of the way, while having something fun and interesting to do.
Just stay the hell away from Indonesia.
Cheers, & Best regards,
Far Side Productions https://augenguy.blogspot.com/
For those who don’t remember, Bernard is a displaced Texan who went seeking fame and fortune in Indonesia some years back.
He’s still looking. But, his adventures are fabulously entertaining.
Playing major home appliances repairman this week. Because Bayesian news analytics will only get you so far..Around here, it’s OK to make profits. It’s the spending ’em that galls us.
Moron the ‘morrow.