72-Year War Cycle: Iran’s “Test War?”

Israel was founded May 14, 1948.  So, by our reckoning, their 72-year cycle “existential war” should not begin until late winter or early spring of next year.

Yet, here we are on the verge of a quick, decisive ground war into PLO/Gaza land almost a year ahead of historical cycles.

The US market is set to drop 500 Dow points and this has all the markings of a fifth wave failure in our Aggregated Markets view.  Normally, we don’t let our thinking out for anyone but subscribers to our Peoplenomics.com, but this is a big-enough break that a look at the Aggregate is warranted:

Aggreate view of markets

The problem (if you understand Elliott waves) is that we could be going higher still, in which case this is our May sell-off and we get the late summer rally to new all-time highs, OR we are starting a new sequence down having broken the trend.

It’s not just the missiles and pending ground fighting in Israel but also the trade war talk has been ratcheted up, too.

It’s axiomatic that there are always three positions any investor can take:  Long (betting on the market moving up), short (betting on the downside) and in cash.  I will admit it’s not very exciting this last one, but we’ve been “ringing the bell for cash” because when markets get to the end of a long bull run (since April 2009), lots of things can go wrong.  When they do, it wrecks long-term portfolio performance.  As cowardly investors are fond of saying “He who sells and stays away, lives to trade another day…”  Cowardice pays better than bravery.

Blame This War on Obama?

Not just Obama, of course; his administration’s plan to submit to the Iranian shakedown back in 2016 was rushed through a complicit congress.  You may recall the story in Foreign Policy “Iran’s $300 Billion Shakedown.”

Remember that president Carter imposed sanctions on Iran in 1979.  Also remember Congress and Obama were all “hot to trot” on a nuclear arms agreement with Iran which has predictably been a mess.  That Congress (and Obama) caved to the Iranian shakedown gave Tehran enough money to slip a good bit to the PLO in the Gaza strip.  Arms money.

Not that the US mainstream is so clear-headed playing FTM (Follow The Money):  It’s more sideshow-like to attack Donald Trump for the numbers he bandies on Iran.

Here’s the thing (and any good corporate accountant will tell you as much)  “How much do you Want the Iran dollar figure to be?”

Figures are all over the place and the “accounting slop” arises because a lot of frozen funds of Iran were (are) offshore.

Part was the more than $400-million that was in the US possession when Iran went through rebellion.  The Shah of Iran had sent the US a pile of dough to buy arms.  When the Shah was deposed, most Americans would have called it “spoils of war, dudes” and that would be the end of it.

It wasn’t.  Obama and congress wanted an easy out.  We tossed in $1.3 billion in “interest” so anxious were we to buy off Iran. Between the “fools on the hill” and the “prince of peace” we idiotically thought we could “buy Iran out” of the nuclear club.  So far, it’s not working.

The Islamic world already has nukes; specifically in Pakistan and let’s not forget they have a deal to sell warheads to the Saudi’s down the road.  We don’t expect them to issue press releases when the goods are delivered.

On the Israeli side, there are already assassination teams going after “businessmen” who are taking Iranian money (the FTM part).  Peaceful Gaza residents don’t just wake up one morning with 700 rockets to lob onto Israel.

The Trump administration has already started to respond by moving a carrier group into position.  Along with that, there is some suspicion that Iran itself is planning an attack.

In our view, however, this is likely only a limited “test war.”

The reason is simple:  If this were the start of a wider conflict, the crap would already be landing on Israel’s north from Lebanon and, in addition, Syria would be rolling into it.  But, we haven’t seen it – yet.

That’s why it feels to me like a “test” war.  The strategy being that American air power can’t be sustained indefinitely.  When carrier groups go in to the region, they need to rotate out of theater as supplies are consumed.  The test war can thus be “modulated” so that by the time of the actual widespread conflict, the US forces would be almost out of supplies (or headed in for resupply).  That’d be the time to strike.

This would put a projected “real” (coordinated, regional) attack in early 2020…much closer to where the 72-year cycle would suggest.

India-Pakistan War Most Likely First

We are again seeing how the PLO/IDF confrontation is driving the international narrative.

Much closer (in the cycles) we are seeing the ongoing exchange in that theater:  Kashmiri civilians bear the brunt of shelling between India and Pakistan.

In the UK Express there has been more nuclear saber-rattling, which should worry any rational person:  “India-Pakistan NUCLEAR exchange would ‘immediately’ KILL 20 million – official claims.”  Frankly, our research figures that could be on the low side since each party has around 100 nukes each.  And Indian population centers are very large.

Good-Bye Warming

Sure, Earth has been slowly warming since the last Ice Age.  But do we need to all sell our cars and move into tents?  No.

You see, in addition to the possibilities of nuclear war (which would cause nuclear winter, the Sun is cooling.  Read Sagan and Turco “A Path Where No Man Thought: Nuclear Winter and the End of the Arms Race” and don’t get climate-crazy – it’s just another mass manipulation!

solar cooling chart from noaa

If you think this is a somewhat cool spring with lots of weather issues so far, bubba, you just give it time to settle in a few more years.  Still, monetize ANYTHING absent new mass consumption (“gotta have it”) technologies, huh?

When we read the daily alarmist reports (like today’s Nature crisis: ‘Shocking’ report details threat to species“) we think more about global resource depletion than “climate.”  And we see any religion that isn’t preaching a two-child limit as irresponsible, but since when….don’t get me started….

The Week Ahead

We don’t have much in the way of economic news (like war in Gaza and trade blowing up isn’t?).  But, tomorrow there’s the Fed’s consumer debt report.  How’s that old “yoke of capitalist oppression” feeling?

The big day this week is likely Thursday when producer prices, international trade, and the Fed boss speaks.

Bitcoin this morning is around $5,623.  Not sure about the war risk of the world’s most HEMP-susceptible currency, but to each their own, I suppose.   When war’s in the air, solids seem better than virtuals, but we haven’t been through any more EMP attacks or nuclear wars than you have…so it’s still debatable.

Need to Know

Tyson Recalls Nearly 12 Million Pounds of Chicken Strips Because They Might Contain Metal.  Game of chicken or porking out?  Deadly Swine Fever Is Ravaging China’s Pork Industry, and It May Be Spreading.

Secondary feature to the market decline is the latest splash of cold water on trade talks from US and Chinese officials.  Meanwhile, “Warren Buffett says trade war would be ‘bad for the whole world’.”  Gee, yah think, Buff?

Don’t call anyone back if you don’t know the number: F.C.C. Warns About the ‘One Ring’ Robocall Scheme.

Your tax dollars at work: Study: Transgender teens in schools with bathroom restrictions are at higher risk of sexual assault.  Yep, yet another monetization of sex.  Change and study, study and change…you’re a supportive and generous taxpayer, right?

OMG, I needed food when I started writing this morning, but there’s nothing better to kill the appetite than a clear-headed read of the global intellectual implosion.

Moron the ‘morrow….

 

 

34 thoughts on “72-Year War Cycle: Iran’s “Test War?””

  1. Jeffe – beg to differ on major investing point – cowardice never pays better than bravery, Hedging up or down Always pays better when Volatility rears its lovely head.
    As for the germans..unh I mean ChiComs go..they spread Fentanyl & Ephedra is US/Mexico – we cause swine flu to spread – see “illegal” richard lugar lab in caucuses/georgia area.

    Aarons breastplate and lightcrown project suggest area of interest/experiment..filtering Out colors so as only to leave red light spectrum – similar to “original” night vision goggles from 50’s – you can see the other “sides” of reality, the big problem fraught with risk is can anyone mentally handle what they will see? According to some knowledgeable types, US Army had some bad experiences with 1st gen. night vision goggles – legend has it that the first troops to try them in combat were literally scared $h!Tless & went completely insane – permanently like, “danger danger Will Robinson”.

    • “””Your tax dollars at work: Study: Transgender teens in schools with bathroom restrictions are at higher risk of sexual assault.  Yep, yet another monetization of sex. “””

      OTFLMAO…. lol lol lol… there is a campaign season coming up…
      This is just another splash of paint on a stinking dead horse to be dragged around the campaign platform.

      And seriously who really cares who has sex with whom ( do they feel they are missing out or what) and why not have unisex bathrooms available to those that don’t feel comfortable in full view of others.
      The whole issue is brought up to get the population stirred up to vote for the Hero that will be able to sway the do nothing crowd into finally doing something. The issue will just be tabled and dragged around the arena during the next election..

      • I have been for unisex bathrooms and locker rooms since I was a teenager. I have heard variations of the same story over and over..
        A young man I knew in the service was gay..
        He was taped by a boyfriend of his mothers.. she knew he told her.. later on because he was smaller than the other kids he was bullied and mocked..one day he was in the shower room at school and the bigger kids from a team horsing around got the better of them and they forced him to perform sexual acts on them.. he seen the coach that turned away.. now he found comfort in the arms of someone with similar life experiences ..yet he is the one condrmned..if you were judging..who would go to hell..the boyfriend the mother for not stopping the monster the coach the good Christian boys or the two that found acceptance and comfort in each others arms…

    • Good info! I’ve never had problems with light sources, though apparently others have. I do find that virtually monochromatic 680 nm is a bit too intense for me. A narrow spectrum trending toward orange is far more comfortable for me. This will still allow dark adaption for the eyes, and that might be part of the problem with the first gen. We can see and feel entities if we’re sensitive, and that’s exacerbated if people use psychedelics. It’s not good or bad – just something that many people are uncomfortable with – sometimes extremely so. We’ll all likely go through that valley of shadows at the end of life – it’s a potential dark adventure that I’m resigned to. Something took care of us when we came into this life and has kept us alive so far. IMHO, we must trust that it will continue to watch over us.

      BTW, ephedra is a very useful herb and common in Chinese medicine. It’s especially valuable in older folks. It becomes a problem when used as a precursor for meth. Fentanyl is a valuable drug in western medicine, though it’s again been taken out of context and used as a concentrated opiate to sell to addicts. The main problems here are physical addiction to chemicals by vulnerable populations, and those who would profit from it.

      • “We’ll all likely go through that valley of shadows at the end of life ”

        Unfortunately Mike.. in all the years I’ve worked and all the people I’ve seen leave..there’s only been a few that have left the way I want to go. One would ask for a 7up every night she would sit watch Letterman and read.. it was her night ritual..one night I was super busy she asked I said it might be a couple of minutes but it was coming she patted me on the hand said take your time..I went out others had come to help so I got her pop..went back her hands were crossed a smile on her face and she had left..another was hospice wanted us to pray with him held my wife’s and my hand we started to pray and he closed his eyes.. many see the angels.. or lived ones.. my mother was telling me dad was there waiting.
        I had one they came to get me.. the floor worker came over for me to go to the wing she was on.. I got over there the head nurse said the new girl had never seen someone leave..would I take care of the body get it ready while they called the mortician. Sure.. so I gathered up the clothes got the towels and washcloths the bath water etc. (We always bathed the bodies) now.. I’ve seen a few leave this person was gone..this person was anal about the bed..the day ritual was.up at 4 bed made so a quarter would bounce watch the news then coffee toast and jam.
        They had gotten up and passed in their chair..I spent a good fifteen minutes plus getting stuff ready.. the nurse and doctor was with them quite a while before I got there..
        I gently picked the patient up out of the chair laid them down on the clean crisp perfectly made bed…
        The patient jumped up and said..what do you think your doing….you messed up my bed…I seen the whole thing.. I asked ..where were you.. she said up in the corner with the angel…now where my coffee..I went got the coffee and toast was coming back the nurse and mortician was at the desk..looked at me and said..what are you doing.. my smart azz response was..she says she’s not going anywhere before she has coffee..she lived 3 more years..I have a lot of similar stories .. the thing I have decided is people with a revenant faith leave more peaceful than those that don’t.

  2. Isn’t it strange how everything we touch turns to sheet,the overthrowing of an elected government in Iran by the C.I.A., because they had the stones to think that Iranian oil belonged to Iran and its people, rather then the U.S. and England.,Churchill saying British industry runs on cheap Iranian oil.Hmm so much for democracy as we now reap the fruits from the seeds we planted long ago,but then again its all Iran’s fault I’m sure.

    The trade issue isn’t going that well as we have lost any credibility on the world stage,but then again just about as expected as we whine and cry about uneven trade, something we have practiced for years along with currency manipulation, blaming China for the greed of the American business and banking sector,sure looks to me like its going to be a bumper crop as we reap what we’ve sown,but then again we will blame someone else as we sink down into the status of one of Trumps shi*hole countries.!!!

    • Robert…. I see you to are looking out of the box this morning on this deep subject.

  3. Oh yeah, ‘cry havoc and let loose the dogs of war!’

    Trump is desperate for a distraction . . .

    • MDS…. I doubt seriously if DJT has anything to do about any of this at all..
      It wouldn’t benefit his business enterprise…
      Bringing peace to the countries and opening up vacation travels to his resorts ..would …

      • Trump would kill his own mother for another trip to the oval office for it would feed his ego,Trump dosen’t have a clue as to foreign affairs as HIS picks Bolton Pompeo and Abrams run the show.So far Trump hasen’t done a thing except to make matters worse, Iran Venezuela Cuba Ecuador while running around putting sanctions on this one and that one twittering and tweeting that all options are on the table, including nuclear war.Then we have the deep state which is the on running catch all of why Trump fails to do anything,but yet the deep state are those that he rewarded so well with his tax breaks, so that dog won’t hunt either,so peace is the last thing on his to do list which will never be fulfilled.!!

      • quote Robert on May 6, 2019 at 09:54
        “Trump would kill his own mother for another trip to the oval office for it would feed his ego,Trump dosen’t have a clue as to foreign affairs as HIS picks Bolton Pompeo and Abrams run the show.”

        Robert has a bad case of TDS and it causes him to makeup and believe his own BS.
        Maybe he should go see Chelsea Handler’s shrink and get some meds
        I wonder if Andy could counsel him into a more peaceful frame of mind
        Andy is one cool dude.

      • “I like not knowing -or pretending I dont know what Im gonna do until it happens. Its worked for me. “David Bailey

        Page #117 WSJ Magazine April 2019

        Uhhh im not responsible for Roberts sins. I got so much weird stuff going on I dont know wether to say anything or do anything and im doing my own wierd sh!t. Trying to let everyone else do their weird stuff.

        Ever since i came off the mountain all this werid stuff is happening. I mean weird even for me. Like i cleaned out my car before i went up there. The next day found a book. The last book Charles Dickenson ever wrote in my car. Never seen it before and never heard of it. Nibody has been in my car in probably 2 weeks. I read it today. Its a children’s book. Made me cry.

        Last night i went and saw this girl and she gave me some tobacco to roll some cigs. In a weird bag with palm trees on it. When i got home i pulled out this lighter and it had 2 four leaf clovers on it. Never seen it before so I messaged her nad said i stole your lighter. She said i have never seen that lighter in my life. Its not mine. I said i didnt have it when i went to your place. Dont know where it came from. So i went to the store to get some papers this morning, and when i got home i got out of my car and dropped the lighter. I sh!t you not. Right there on the ground was a four leaf clover. So i picked it up. I didnt know what to do with it, i have only found one, one other time and that was over 20 years ago. I go in the house i was messing around in the kitchen and never noticed before that our microwave is a “magic chef”. Then this voice in my head says. Nuke the four leaf clover. So i did for 8 seconds. Cause i am wearing a cowboy hat. After the 8 seconds i took it out and the voice says, eat it. So i did. LOL!

        I was told someone on this site, Not George didnt have long to live. I dont know if im supposed to say anything or not. I know who it is. I was shown that today. I dont even know if im supposed to say anything to anyone about anything. So much weird stuff is happening since i went to the Montana? Mountains, i dont know what to say or do. LMAO! I dreamed about sponge bob last night too! I dont rememeber my dream and eveything is so surreal and in synch i feel like im on LSD or cubensa’s. But im not, im completely sober today.

        So thanks man. Robert is on his own for now, im trippin the F out on my own stuff. Ha ha ha ha! Like seriously trippin!

        Andy

  4. “Israel was founded May 14, 1948”

    Just speculating here.. looking out of the box at what I see as a uniquely similar situation…. Israel was first viewed as European refugee’s fleeing from war torn Europe marching into and settling claiming an already historically disputed territory illegally..

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Palestinian_exodus

    https://ifamericaknew.org/history/origin.html

    some of the disputes have been mostly over raw resources and money or the transference of money and power..a center port so to speak..

    http://pij.org/articles/1567

    https://ifamericaknew.org/history/origin.html

    NOW view this as a business operation plan..

    Now my question… Are there any similarities to the illegal hoard marching on our border and the creation of Israel.. and just what could be achieved with a regional war. since china and Russia have been asked to help stabilize the bordering nations.

    also why would anyone want to dispute anything that China wants to do since they are the global manufacturers of almost everything that the world consumes? Just some deep morning thoughts here..
    so far in every part where there seems to be a money interest.. china and russia have been asked to help stabilize the regions..from one perspective it seems to be looking like a chess game..

  5. A comment heard on the radio: Checking the Chicago futures market indicates a 30% jump up in food prices this fall because the corn and soybean crops can’t be planted in the flooded areas.

  6. Having been part of a carrier task force off the coast of Iran, we got to spend an extra 5-months on station for our little world crisis. You never run out of supplies. The task force stays on station, and the fast oiler heads down to Diego Garcia for fuel, food, and bombs.

    Diego has grown up since I was there, but for those ships that blow a boiler, there’s a sub-tender there to help.

    So, rotation is a non-defined term, and certainly not based on any time limits.

    BTW, this is happening on schedule, and it isn’t going to be a test.

  7. Have noticed through many years when its time for Elliott to change something always happens in both commodities and equities. Cause or effect?

  8. Let’s think outside of the box imagining Elliot Waves are correct and we are at the Super Top.

    The so-called “West” rode the current Elliot wave to the Super Top. Neither Chad or Kenya didn’t do it. China and Japan didn’t do it. The West is Europe and they did it.

    The “West” goes back a long way. We’re talking the Viking days and East India Company.

    If Elliot is correct about the ending of a Grand Super-cycle the West will get hurt the most. Western ideas will be what disappears from the planet.

    Creating Israel was part of the West’s “blow-off top”. We should expect Israel will be blown off the map even with the West suicideing for them.

    The winner of the Indo-Paki war will rule the world next. Since India is more-or-less aligned with the West, East India Company, it’ll be the Paki’s who prevail.

    • December 1. ‘Apocalypse’ in india. First strike, right where the “I” is on the map.

  9. Why the Bush father & sons Presidental duo just never understood the American people & their needs can be summed up by none other than the former CA gouvenor.

    “Money doesn’t make you happy. I now have $50 million but I was just as happy when I had $48 million.”
    -Arnold Schwarzenegger

  10. DJT has waited too long to DECLAS and CLOSE the BORDER…the Deep State is still IN CONTROL of this country…and this administrtion has way to many OBAMA holdovers in state and DOD HLS DOJ FBI who are running the country….and WILL start a CONFLICT without DJT’s ok he will be forced to agree to conflict…as the ‘illegals ‘ continue to flood INTO the country and are supported by You and I with our CONGRESS using ‘borrowed’ money as the DEBT piles up….the Deep State would have had MANY players indicted and tried IF …DJT Declassed in NOVEMBER as he boasted he would….BUT delaying has now brought about the ‘End Game ‘ for HIM and this country…strap in and prepare for ‘chaos’….in ALL areas of this nation and the world……imo…Semper Fi

    • d, good points. The Deep State won’t allow another World War until they can come out in the open & rule the United States in the open. At that point anything goes & anyone or any country that opposes them will be destroyed. Like the Antichrist, but not Bible based. Nothing good for you or me will come with it.

    • This is why I bad teeth inflammation causes heart problems this is why inflammation in your knees cause heart problems this is why inflammation in any part of the body is the cause inflammation a heart of heart problems , stop you cold Stone dead.
      This is why all the things that are added to the food or round the food or grown with the food in the water and the air all all against you natural organic Greenhouse food is the future and the future beyond that is organisms that are grown specifically in environment for a sterile environment which are used to make food with .

      It’s amazing that they have declared that ibuprofen which does reduce inflammation if you take it will cause heart problems ,which I think is a lie because if it reduces inflammation somewhere in the body it reduces the chance of the heart being inflamed with can cause heart problems,
      Just like Viagra Was made initially 2 make blood vessels open for the heart to breathe relieved when inflammation or stress occurs but what they found out was that it works better for the opening of vessels in male phalluses in male penises and now they’re back saying hey guess what Viagra is good for heart problems and we knew that all along so between Viagra ibuprofen and any other natural ingredients llthatike garlic that allow blood flow and that reduce inflammation I think the probabilities are Grand that you’ll live a long life and then the other side of the coin is to make sure that your body is in an alkaline environment or the internal parts of it is alkaline and that you have a system to rid deliver and the colon of any poisons that are picked up which would be do Dulcolax , the overnight clean out relief thing that you get pill before you go get a colonoscopy

      • Are you bored want something different to eat how about a potato that was put into the crock pot with whatever you can imagine and you pull the potato out with the skin and you put it in a big big cup and you Pawn a little bit of mail to put a slice of cheese in there and a slice of Honey smoked turkey and you put a little bit of cottage cheese and Air maybe a spoon worth mix it up real good oh and some milk just a little splash of milk and voala.

    • d,
      You did read where Trump is hiring a former Obama appointed Border czar to head up border security. So Much for change right?

  11. “””absent new mass consumption (“gotta have it”) “”

    Speaking bout budget catastrophic events.

    My last years budget changes was rough….. now I have just learned I have to make deeper cuts.. another 700.00 a month has to be cut off of our spendable finances….

    it’s always a challenge at the bottom…

    Now.. I know being realistic that our household isn’t the the only ones that will be affected with these changes. Increasing expenses in an economy that is stalled in the past.

  12. My stock market indicators are still bullish, except for the DOW. But the DOW being 30 stocks is not reliable in the short or medium term (look what one stock, Boeing, did to the average…distorted it). They are not daily indicators but medium term trend indicators designed to let your profits run with the trend.

    Royal baby born on a UK bank holiday. He won’t qualify to be a Prince unless the Queen allows it. He is too far down on the totem pole to be called a Prince under current rules. Also, he must apply at the American Consulate if he wants dual citizenship. Now he is only a UK citizen.

    Lastly, I had a premonition organized Born Again Religions are like our Political leaders. It is all about the money.

  13. Here’s a topic you might use for one of your future reports is all the ways to reduce inflammation of the human body according to Emery Smith , who’s been around the new technologies and the dissection of beings human and nonhuman the science in biology of items that reduce inflammation will prolong life to those long years that we know as unheard of .

  14. You are God or part of God experiencing what it’s like to be human

    • To live to be a hundred and fifty.
      Number one ,swallow your words.
      Number two, Be skilled in metaphysics.
      Number three, have a Curative by following Therapeutics of a senior.
      Number four, prearrange everything in an Artful manner.
      Number 5 .swallow one’s words.
      so be it

Comments are closed.