Israel was founded May 14, 1948.  So, by our reckoning, their 72-year cycle “existential war” should not begin until late winter or early spring of next year.

Yet, here we are on the verge of a quick, decisive ground war into PLO/Gaza land almost a year ahead of historical cycles.

The US market is set to drop 500 Dow points and this has all the markings of a fifth wave failure in our Aggregated Markets view.  Normally, we don’t let our thinking out for anyone but subscribers to our, but this is a big-enough break that a look at the Aggregate is warranted:

Aggreate view of markets

The problem (if you understand Elliott waves) is that we could be going higher still, in which case this is our May sell-off and we get the late summer rally to new all-time highs, OR we are starting a new sequence down having broken the trend.

It’s not just the missiles and pending ground fighting in Israel but also the trade war talk has been ratcheted up, too.

It’s axiomatic that there are always three positions any investor can take:  Long (betting on the market moving up), short (betting on the downside) and in cash.  I will admit it’s not very exciting this last one, but we’ve been “ringing the bell for cash” because when markets get to the end of a long bull run (since April 2009), lots of things can go wrong.  When they do, it wrecks long-term portfolio performance.  As cowardly investors are fond of saying “He who sells and stays away, lives to trade another day…”  Cowardice pays better than bravery.

Blame This War on Obama?

Not just Obama, of course; his administration’s plan to submit to the Iranian shakedown back in 2016 was rushed through a complicit congress.  You may recall the story in Foreign Policy “Iran’s $300 Billion Shakedown.”

Remember that president Carter imposed sanctions on Iran in 1979.  Also remember Congress and Obama were all “hot to trot” on a nuclear arms agreement with Iran which has predictably been a mess.  That Congress (and Obama) caved to the Iranian shakedown gave Tehran enough money to slip a good bit to the PLO in the Gaza strip.  Arms money.

Not that the US mainstream is so clear-headed playing FTM (Follow The Money):  It’s more sideshow-like to attack Donald Trump for the numbers he bandies on Iran.

Here’s the thing (and any good corporate accountant will tell you as much)  “How much do you Want the Iran dollar figure to be?”

Figures are all over the place and the “accounting slop” arises because a lot of frozen funds of Iran were (are) offshore.

Part was the more than $400-million that was in the US possession when Iran went through rebellion.  The Shah of Iran had sent the US a pile of dough to buy arms.  When the Shah was deposed, most Americans would have called it “spoils of war, dudes” and that would be the end of it.

It wasn’t.  Obama and congress wanted an easy out.  We tossed in $1.3 billion in “interest” so anxious were we to buy off Iran. Between the “fools on the hill” and the “prince of peace” we idiotically thought we could “buy Iran out” of the nuclear club.  So far, it’s not working.

The Islamic world already has nukes; specifically in Pakistan and let’s not forget they have a deal to sell warheads to the Saudi’s down the road.  We don’t expect them to issue press releases when the goods are delivered.

On the Israeli side, there are already assassination teams going after “businessmen” who are taking Iranian money (the FTM part).  Peaceful Gaza residents don’t just wake up one morning with 700 rockets to lob onto Israel.

The Trump administration has already started to respond by moving a carrier group into position.  Along with that, there is some suspicion that Iran itself is planning an attack.

In our view, however, this is likely only a limited “test war.”

The reason is simple:  If this were the start of a wider conflict, the crap would already be landing on Israel’s north from Lebanon and, in addition, Syria would be rolling into it.  But, we haven’t seen it – yet.

That’s why it feels to me like a “test” war.  The strategy being that American air power can’t be sustained indefinitely.  When carrier groups go in to the region, they need to rotate out of theater as supplies are consumed.  The test war can thus be “modulated” so that by the time of the actual widespread conflict, the US forces would be almost out of supplies (or headed in for resupply).  That’d be the time to strike.

This would put a projected “real” (coordinated, regional) attack in early 2020…much closer to where the 72-year cycle would suggest.

India-Pakistan War Most Likely First

We are again seeing how the PLO/IDF confrontation is driving the international narrative.

Much closer (in the cycles) we are seeing the ongoing exchange in that theater:  Kashmiri civilians bear the brunt of shelling between India and Pakistan.

In the UK Express there has been more nuclear saber-rattling, which should worry any rational person:  “India-Pakistan NUCLEAR exchange would ‘immediately’ KILL 20 million – official claims.”  Frankly, our research figures that could be on the low side since each party has around 100 nukes each.  And Indian population centers are very large.

Good-Bye Warming

Sure, Earth has been slowly warming since the last Ice Age.  But do we need to all sell our cars and move into tents?  No.

You see, in addition to the possibilities of nuclear war (which would cause nuclear winter, the Sun is cooling.  Read Sagan and Turco “A Path Where No Man Thought: Nuclear Winter and the End of the Arms Race” and don’t get climate-crazy – it’s just another mass manipulation!

solar cooling chart from noaa

If you think this is a somewhat cool spring with lots of weather issues so far, bubba, you just give it time to settle in a few more years.  Still, monetize ANYTHING absent new mass consumption (“gotta have it”) technologies, huh?

When we read the daily alarmist reports (like today’s Nature crisis: ‘Shocking’ report details threat to species“) we think more about global resource depletion than “climate.”  And we see any religion that isn’t preaching a two-child limit as irresponsible, but since when….don’t get me started….

The Week Ahead

We don’t have much in the way of economic news (like war in Gaza and trade blowing up isn’t?).  But, tomorrow there’s the Fed’s consumer debt report.  How’s that old “yoke of capitalist oppression” feeling?

The big day this week is likely Thursday when producer prices, international trade, and the Fed boss speaks.

Bitcoin this morning is around $5,623.  Not sure about the war risk of the world’s most HEMP-susceptible currency, but to each their own, I suppose.   When war’s in the air, solids seem better than virtuals, but we haven’t been through any more EMP attacks or nuclear wars than you have…so it’s still debatable.

Need to Know

Tyson Recalls Nearly 12 Million Pounds of Chicken Strips Because They Might Contain Metal.  Game of chicken or porking out?  Deadly Swine Fever Is Ravaging China’s Pork Industry, and It May Be Spreading.

Secondary feature to the market decline is the latest splash of cold water on trade talks from US and Chinese officials.  Meanwhile, “Warren Buffett says trade war would be ‘bad for the whole world’.”  Gee, yah think, Buff?

Don’t call anyone back if you don’t know the number: F.C.C. Warns About the ‘One Ring’ Robocall Scheme.

Your tax dollars at work: Study: Transgender teens in schools with bathroom restrictions are at higher risk of sexual assault.  Yep, yet another monetization of sex.  Change and study, study and change…you’re a supportive and generous taxpayer, right?

OMG, I needed food when I started writing this morning, but there’s nothing better to kill the appetite than a clear-headed read of the global intellectual implosion.

Moron the ‘morrow….