You don’t need to be an economist to read the writing on the wall, at this point. History sings the song. Everything goes wrong. Just follow along.
Wednesday, the financial press effectively buried the screaming increase in the Advance Trade Deficit numbers: Trade Deficit up 9.2% in Sept, which supports an inflation scenario where all imports rise dramatically, dead-ahead.
This morning, we see in market futures how pro’s were trading the market higher in advance of Gross Domestic Product numbers because they were “expected to show some deceleration.”
Well, here’s what we got:
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2021, following an increase of 6.7 percent in the second quarter. The deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter was led by a slowdown in consumer spending. A resurgence of COVID-19 cases resulted in new restrictions and delays in the reopening of establishments in some parts of the country. In the third quarter, government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased.
Hey! Let’s blame supply chain issues! Economic growth rate slows to 2% as supply chain issues take toll. WTG CNBC! (Not the plandemic, Biden’s bad for business…or China’s squeezing our nuts, of course!)
The problem with GDP measurements is first that it’s based on under-reported inflation (Monetary Base is up >30% in the past year, it just takes time to bend over. Be patient. Soon come…). Second problem is whether gender studies and CRT and other “made up industries” are actual “products.” The correct answer is “Yes.”
Try to separate appalled from analysis.
Oh, if you’re still not clear on the inflation to come, check out Global Food Prices Set To Soar As The Oil And Gas Crunch Continues | OilPrice.com.
Who told you to plant a garden and get real about growing edible things?
The other weekly hype-a-roni is new Unemployment Claims since there are still a few people who haven’t burned through every bit of their benefits to make it through the plandemic:
Just like ETF’s, these numbers eventually fall into the noise as benefits run out. (ETF fees eventually return prices to zero too…)
As we have warned, we left “economics” a good while back. This is gambling, pure and simple. OK, with maybe an episode of Leverage and a rerun of “The Wild Bunch” over at the Fed.
The reason we use our Aggregate Index is that there is only so much money in the world. And every weekend, markets close Friday’s giving us some insight as to what’s going on.
When we look at the Aggregate of the U.S. market, we see the run-up in Futures pricing (ahead of jobs and GDP) as bull run at breaking out above the overhead resistance line formed from the Labor Day weekend all-time-highs.
You can see how the early futures were trying to poke higher. Sure, might happen…might not. For now, we’re mainly spectators.
Up, Down, and Going Nowhere
Problem is, as we go into the long-standing expectation of my consigliere – namely America would face down a deflationary period and then inflationary – a key comment for a 20-year colleague this week makes a useful point:
“My [redacted] who studied German hyperinflation mentioned what limited Germany’s ability to put more “marks” into circulation. Printing presses could not keep up with demand for paper money, when more presses were brought in, paper supply could not keep up. Then, old notes were stamped with new numbers over old numbers so the game could go on.
How strikingly similar this is to what has happened in the past, dollar disconnected from gold, printed dollar bailouts, etc, creating dollars to “outrun” expenses!
Although history has a bad habit of repeating itself, this time it will be different. Difference being, government can issue digital dollars, dollar creation no longer restrained how fast dollars can be printed, or if paper supply for dollars limits ability to print. No, with a keystroke in the digital dollar domain, infinite amount of dollars can be created! No limit there, probably only limitation being how fast one can type those zeros on the keyboard.
Obviously this cannot go on forever, so where will this “limiting” factor be? It will be in the “restriction of our rights” where confiscation of personal resources will take place for the “greater good!” Zimbabwe is a “poster child” for this.”
If you close your eyes and go into soft-focus mode, the outline of this apparition fills in. The specific targeting of 700 Rich by the Bidenist Government may sound good to the “wokees.” But, as always in such things, it’s just the modern spin on “First they came for the Trade Unionists” that launched the Nazi’s.
The “Pre-War Woke?”
I know what you’re thinking: “So you’re saying the Woke people are Nazi’s?”
No…but I do know people who do…one of which informed me of these great links: Social justice warriors are woke Western imperialists and just as arrogant and patronising as the colonisers of the 18th Century. Along with These Key Similarities Between Lenin’s Red Terror and America’s Woke Culture Reveal Left’s Blueprint For Complete Takeover.
We live in an evolving Stalinist state. We hear serial bullshit (like how well the economy is doing) and only a handful of critical thinkers who hang out here have the brains to inspect actual data sets which still have employment under 2017 levels, so no jobs growth since four years ago…
But, like my colleague hints, The Weimar – even with cryptos – would still have blown up.
But it’s interesting how first governments (like Venezuela which just removed six zeroes) blow up inflation, which effectively destroys savings, and then once the work of crooked money is done, lop off zeroes. That’s Social Just Us for yah.
If you’re not following: Venezuela went through wild inflation (think back through Maduro, et al.). Now, they are doing what amounts to a “reverse split.”
The terror part is how government – claiming omnipotence over zero-creation – can (and has) seized concentrations of wealth that offend the “SJW Class rulers).
Which (eventually) lands us at the nexus of today’s note:
IF the Weimar could have “out zeroed” the economy, would that have prevented Hitler’s rise to power? Alternatively, is the process (once swindling people out of their life’s work begins) inevitable? Leading automatically to the rise of demagoguery?
Answer this one right and you may be able to forecast American politics out past 2024.
Justifies worry about the rhymes of conflict: China could (long-term) eye countries like India and Australia as modern-day analogs to the Sudetenland.
Then – with Slow Joe on a fast jet, after a morning of demo-plotting targeting the rich, he’ll be somewhat out of pocket “Rome-ing around” this weekend.
Which has us watching events out West with considerable trepidation. Cries for elbow room have to start somewhere. Taiwan could be a useful warm-up act.
With illegal alien arrests down under the Bidenunists, Migrant caravan: Thousands in Mexico moving towards U.S. border. Yes, it’s an invasion.
Communicable mental issues check: How some ‘Jewitches’ embrace both Judaism and witchcraft (apnews.com). And State Dept. issues first 3rd-gender passport for Americans (msn.com). Someone should call ’em a plumber.
And out in the Wild West of the Pacific: Taiwan’s President says the threat from China is increasing ‘every day’ – CNN Meantime, Taiwan Defence Minister Urges Country To Rely On Itself In Case Of Chinese Attack (outlookindia.com).
When we read the other day that China Military Aircraft Buzz Taiwan Air Defenses 10 Days in a Row? It occurred to us that one of these days it could be the real thing.
We wait. 50% odds of the next week, figures my consigliere. Lost too many bets with him to fall for the trap.
Dow futures at click time were up 66 at post time, but let’s see how things settle-in after the opening “amateur hour.”
Write when you get rich,