Markets Eye Santa Rally, Changes in Social Sec., plus Modular Projects

Much on the agenda – Markets and fresh data, a few headlines that matter, changes to Social Security in 2026 and how to hedge.  Plus ShopTalk Sunday has a “modular project” started…

Markets and Santa

We closed our short position Wednesday.  And sure enough, there was a decent rally Thursday. Early Futures pricing today?  Well, up again, at least for a while. Sure, the Dow futures were down a smidgen but the NASDAQ was looking chipper.  And Santa?  yeah…well, let’s look at the fat man’s rap sheet, shall we?

Historically, the effect has been most pronounced during periods of stable or improving liquidity conditions. Years with accommodative monetary policy, rising consumer confidence, or strong year-end institutional rebalancing tend to see the rally appear more reliably. Conversely, when credit is tightening, recession risk is rising, or geopolitical shocks dominate headlines, the Santa Claus Rally weakens or disappears altogether. In those cases, the absence of a rally has often preceded broader market weakness in the following quarter.

Behavioral explanations account for part of the effect. Year-end bonus flows, tax positioning, window dressing by portfolio managers, and reduced trading volumes can all amplify upside moves when selling pressure subsides. Importantly, this is not a guarantee of gains, but a conditional tendency: Santa rallies occur more often when systemic stress is low and investor risk tolerance is intact.

The most useful signal may not be the presence of a Santa Claus Rally, but its failure. Historically, years in which the market declined during the Santa window have shown a higher probability of subsequent volatility, drawdowns, or trend reversals in the first half of the following year. In that sense, Santa Claus does not predict prosperity so much as he confirms the market’s underlying health—or quietly warns when it is absent.

We tend to use our Aggregate Index which is the basis for a lot of our multispectral economics thinking.  When 2025 began, our Aggregate was holding forth 50,588.72.  At the close Thursday, it was trading 58,907.74. That’s somewhere around a 16 percent gain – too early to fire up the calculator.

We get a real kick out of Bitcoin shills.  Because while January 1 of this year BTC was  $94,443.52, this morning it was trading $87,940.83.  Ex-squeeze us, but isn’t that a loss?

We – being hicks in a well-armed cabin in the outback – have been pleased with our metallurgy experiments this year.  gold started the year from $2,623.96.  This morning on the futures board it’s showing $4,361.50. Which just might be a gain, though don’t ask a coiner to “run the numbers” – they don’t have much skill with anything other than macro-trend spotting and luck.

Silver?  Which this morning was holding what on the futures?  $66.03 an ounce, did you say?  It began the year from $28.92. 228 percent for the year is an OK number and, oh…maybe a wee bit ahead of the coinsters.

But if the US Fed is still willing to fill the punch bowl for the IPO crowd, please pay attention as Yen Weakens Despite BOJ Hiking Rate to Highest Level Since 1995.

Short Snorts

(You know it’s a nothing news day when a “Jimmy Kimmel mocks Trump” headline is shamelessly touted by the lost-cause leftards.)

Use extreme care if you’re planning a fishing trip in the Pacific over the holidays:  Five killed as US military destroys two more vessels in Pacific Ocean.

One small step toward legalization: Donald Trump’s Pot Shot | Crooked Media.

Profits of War being planned:  EU Agrees To $106 Billion Loan For Ukraine After Shelving Russian Asset Proposal. We’re reminded: Payback’s a bitch.

Seems like we’re down on Leftards, does it?  VIRGINIA: Soros-Backed Democrat DA Frees Illegal Murder Suspect—He Kills Again Hours Later.

So we move right along…

Fact For Action: Social Security Changes for 2026

Fact: Social Security cost of living adjustments kick in shortly.  Up 2.8 percent in 2026. And mainstream sources go into more details in articles like this one: 5 2026 Social Security Changes to Know About Today.

Why It Matters: More than anything, this is the ultimate “test case” for our long-standing #1 financial advice to anyone who will listen.  Pay off your primary residence so you will have a place to live (cheaply) when you retire.  When coupled with a low tax rate area (East Texas is dandy, and no state income tax) you can build a high disposable income even on “low income” in retirement.

Action: By planning ahead, you can “game the system” effectively. In an “absolute worst case” Elaine and I could “get by” on less than 25 percent of our Social Security. That’s from managing all of the seven major support systems of life effectively:  food, shelter, communications, transportation, energy, environment, and finance.

Hardly anyone has read my book Downsizing, Missing Collapse of Empire.  But we are “walking the talk” in very tangible (cost-reducing) and specific ways.

  • Food: We eat simply. We don’t snack. And we live the intermittent-fasting (IF) way on an 16:8 schedule with no HFCS and little preserved foods.  A  pound of sugar lasts a year, typically.  Depending on baking.
  • Shelter:  Remember the guy who said “I ain’t taking financial advice from a guy in the woods in a doule-wide mobile home”?   Do a little maintenance and save oodles.
  • Communications:  One cell phone – at home, we have ham radio gear.
  • Transportation:  2005 Lexus and a 2001 Dodge Ram 1500?  You kidding me?  All been paid off – forever!
  • Environment:  Buy less, have less trash.  Have a septic system and no recurring bills…
  • Energy:  40-solar panels is a start, right?
  • Finance:  2025 will mark another year of paying ZERO INTEREST to the Leech Class!

We anticipate Social Security will be reduced, but by the time it is, we will have reduced food costs even more because we’re focusing on food production (home dirt and hydroponics) in 2026…

At the Intersection of Coincidence and Conspiracy

From time to time, readers surface events that sit uncomfortably at the boundary between coincidence and something more unsettling. Two such cases involve researchers associated with MIT whose work touched controversial or disruptive areas of energy science—and whose deaths, years apart, invite quiet reflection rather than loud conclusions.  Long-time Winnipeg news analyst Jester pointed it out in our Comments overnight.

Some grounding in the topic of Cold Fusion, Fleischmann and Pons, and conspiracies to suppress breakthroughs that could rock the PowersThatBe may be useful to your discernment.

The story begins back in 2004, when Dr. Eugene Mallove, a prominent critic of the early dismissal of cold fusion research, was killed during what authorities described as a robbery at a rental property. Convictions followed, and no official finding connected his death to his scientific positions. Earlier this week, MIT News reported that plasma physicist Dr. Loureiro died from gunshot wounds in his home, with limited public detail available at this time.

No causal link is alleged here. Coincidences are not conspiracies. Still, when researchers working near the edges of high-stakes energy paradigms die under violent circumstances, it is reasonable—indeed responsible—to note the pattern without asserting intent. History shows that ideas threatening entrenched economic structures often meet resistance long before they meet acceptance, and transparency tends to thin where incentives grow large.

The disciplined posture is neither credulity nor dismissal. It is observation, restraint, and memory. We mark the facts, acknowledge uncertainty, and remain alert to how institutions behave when the cost of being wrong—or being early—runs high.

The Kennedy Assassination is also illustrative of coincidence versus conspiracy collisions.  Again, lots of “coincidences.” A single coincidence is plausible. However, a chain of coincidences begins to strain credibility.  We recall after November 22, 1963, the public was asked to accept, among other things:

  • A lone gunman with disputed marksmanship
  • A bullet exhibiting unprecedented ballistic behavior
  • Immediate destruction or loss of key evidence
  • Conflicting autopsy reports and photographs
  • Rapid closure via the Warren Commission under political pressure
  • Subsequent suppression or classification of records for decades

We think the most likely reason why the Kennedy files have never all been released is simple: Governments don’t classify documents for 60+ years to hide crimes. They likely do it to hide failures, incompetence, or institutional exposure.

Even this clear-eyed view of reality does not preclude the use of structured speculation as a thinking tool. In Peoplenomics research, we have occasionally explored—explicitly as hypothesis, not assertion—the conceptual possibility of future-navigating institutions tasked with minimizing worst-case outcomes. In such frameworks, actions that appear troubling at the intersection of coincidence and conspiracy may be interpreted as risk-containment rather than malice. We emphasize this as analytical scaffolding, not allegation. Like discussions of alien contact or long-horizon bio-risk, the multigenerational consequences are unknown.

Result?  We put this one in our “Hmm…” files.  And the mainstream is now feeding it: What we know about the suspect in the Brown University and MIT professor shootings, Claudio Manuel Neves Valente – CBS News  Hold your “Catcher in the Rye” questions for later.

ATR: Modularized Christmas/NY Projects

On a roll around here:  Our Lowes delivery for the new front deck (off the 180-degree view wine-drinking room) showed up Thusday.  And – being the reincarnation of FWT (Frederick Winslow Taylor) and a clever tool-using ape (with stopwatches) I’ve decided to “chunk the build” in coming ShopTalk Sunday columns.

The first 53-minutes of the project was done (with pictures) Thursday.

Won’t be up this coming Sunday because reader Eleanor asked about home tool replacement in a story that traces back to the dangers of storing “pool shock” which a lot of serious peppers do…

New SFE Rule!

As work continues on my next book in the AI series (though Mind Amplifiers is still vastly under appreciated) the next level comes into view in Co-Telligence.

Today over on the HiddenGuild site, I catch AI lying again – and there are two dandy payoffs to that research stub:

  • The first is a new rule for the SFE (shared framework experience) that was added. When proofreading docs with AI ““Hard errors only, no style flags.”
  • That arose because I caught AI doing serial lying again – and not only did it explain why (which illuminates why humans lie, too) but we also see an upper limit to AI development coming into view from this.

All interesting if you like deeply and thinkly.  Try Does AI Hold Grudges? – Hidden Guild is your day needs a triple-0shot of academic type AI research to fulfill life now that Christmas has maxed your cards out…

On that note, I’ve got a timer set (on Alexa) for tomorrow morning.  That will be when the frozen turkey moves out of the cold side of the fridge into the warmer weather of the meat drawer where “the tables” say it should be perfect in five days ahead of Christmas.

Elaine and I have once again come up with “No, don’t really want anything we don’t already have…: this year.  Which, in a dandy and sustainable way, means we have achieved a level of success few people do.  Which is the ultimate in stress reduction.

Because – it was once explained to me by a psychiatrist I was doing an interview with on a book he’d written – “Stress people feel is the difference between where they THINK they should be and where the ARE.”

Reduce the gap to “perfectly happy where you are?”  No stress.

Simple, huh?  ()You’re welcome.)

Write when you get rich…

George@Ure.net

44 thoughts on “Markets Eye Santa Rally, Changes in Social Sec., plus Modular Projects”

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  1. Christmas programs on shortwave:

    https://swling.com/blog/2025/12/alan-roes-b-25-holiday-programmes-on-shortwave-season-guide-to-music-on-shortwave-version-3-0/

    Your SS increase benefits may be lowered by Medicare B increases:

    “The standard monthly premium for Medicare Part B enrollees will be $202.90 for 2026, an increase of $17.90 from $185.00 in 2025. The annual deductible for all Medicare Part B beneficiaries will be $283 in 2026, an increase of $26 from the annual deductible of $257 in 2025.”

    • RandomMike : our Medicare Advantage plan 2026 premium is the same as prior year. In fact, ever since enrolling, our premiums have gone down, twice. The various coverage (insurance company participation) features have remained the same or … the company is covering more (ex: additional coverage participation for dental, glasses, etc).

      The insurance business is just probability defined by actuaries projected with math. We have allowed insurance companies (and many others) to harvest excessive profits and, it’s wicked hard to unwind. An aftershock from Covid …

      ~ E ~

      • “it’s wicked hard to unwind”

        That’s why I believe insurance should be made illegal.

        It is one leg of a rapidly escalating pyramid “game” (the other leg being government) — like two pyramid schemes feeding off each other. Unless a catastrophic third player (an ELE or near-ELE) enters the game, or the game is terminated, it will only end with insurers owning everything and government, intestate.

        If it is ended, everyone will have to pay their own freight. The doomers will cry that no one would receive medical care or accident compensation. The reality is, doctors and nurses have to eat, too. So do McDonalds employees, when some ditz dumps a cup of coffee in their lap and body shop employees, when someone wrinkles your fender. I have also had my fill of “nonprofit organizations” like hospitals and schools, dropping multiple billions of dollars into new buildings, because they’ve been overcompensated to the point they have to piss money away in boxcar-sized chunks, or “lose their nonprofit status.”

        The actuaries project a constant stream of worst-cases; the reality is far less extreme. The insurance companies live in the flow in-between, which garners them a breathtaking amount of profit, especially when Uncle Printing Press guarantees a positive outcome, no matter their acts or actions…

  2. JFK (1991)

    Jim Garrison: I never realized Kennedy was so dangerous to the establishment. Is that why?
    X: Well, that’s the real question, isn’t it? Why? The how and the who is just scenery for the public. Oswald, Ruby, Cuba, the Mafia. Keeps ’em guessing like some kind of parlor game, prevents ’em from asking the most important question, why? Why was Kennedy killed? Who benefited? Who has the power to cover it up? Who?

    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0102138/characters/nm0000661/

  3. Claustrum Rally – G, center of the Brain…where the magic happens.
    #3 -happyhappy Hanukkah-https://youtu.be/9320tG1bQaY?
    Might be an area of interest worthy of some study..who knows?

    The orange napoleon (bonpartist) has his Secretary of Health – the great Bobby Kennedy (Fiztgeralds) is announcing a new childhood vax schedule today, based on the “Eat Me Im a Danish” model.
    Hearing we be going from 40 childhood vax’s down to like 15. That will be great news.

    Q – What do you call a brand new Manpad, that hunts low flying craft and and comes equipped with a triple spectrum seeker ?

    A- Russian 9K333VERBA

    Due the USA is aready paying $3 Billion a DAY in Interest on Ure DEBT, substantial doubt exists as to whether US Govmint could even afford a couple hundred of these badboys.

    ?Been to a Pharmacy lately to Purchase any Biologics ? In SE Pennsyltucky market they have gone to Ai pricing model, so your product price changes Weekly – WTF, over ? Better half was a “lil hot to trot” over this Customer rape fiasco
    Thats some serious greedy ass bullscheisse right there.
    What the What ?! is right.

    Speaking of bullscheisse – the bondi beach false flag – seen the vids of all the Trauma actors ? Applying fake blood to people and what notz?
    Remember what the “pope” posted here many New Moons ago – ALL acts of Terrorism are State Sponsored, ALL .

    *Do you have Ure Winter Solstice bonfire set up ready to go on Sunday ? If not, oh well, better get splitting, the seasoned wood..

      • re: St. Martin’s Croissants
        feat: End of Martinmas to Solstice = 40

        I’m sorry, George. Before linking to a canonized fourth century Roman cavalry soldier of the Mars (“War”) legion this week, ChatGPT shattered my notions about danish pastry too. The famous baked good allegedly reached Denmark by way of Viennese baker hands during an 1850 Danish labour action. Likewise, the namesake of Warsaw’s popular St. Martin’s Croissants isn’t Polish. Rather the warrior turned St. Martin of Tours is associated with Candes-St-Martin formerly in Roman Gaul where the Vienne and Loire Rivers meet. He’s now a patron saint of France having a November 11th feast day.

        Yesterday a clearly delighted President of the Ukraine and tour blogs declared on his public social media account that he is “happy to be back on an official visit to Poland”. An accompanying video clip depicted his red carpet arrival at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw via Audi limo. It was not bearing state or diplomatic plates. The Polish public license plate prefix decoder chart indicates that the vehicle is privately registered to an address situated in the former Russian Partition of Warsaw.

        Separately the President’s picture gallery included an image still from during a speech delivery backed by a “Solidarno??” banner. The former left wing labour group founded by Lech Walesa apparently now aligns with the right wing, nationalist “Law and Justice” party.

        It seems there was an “exchange of diplomatic gifts” between the two Presidents. The Ukrainian side is understood to have received a two volume tome entitled “Documents of the Volhynia Crime”. The volumes detail the massacre of 40,000-100,000 Polish civilians by the Ukrainian nationalist OUN-B led by Stepan Bandera in WW2. ChatGPT concluded as unknown what gift the Ukrainian President offered his host.

    • “Bobby Kennedy (Fiztgeralds) is announcing a new childhood vax schedule today, based on the “Eat Me Im a Danish” model.”

      You, a Rick Dees fan?
      Or are you just a Doctor Demento fan (who just gave his last broadcast a few weeks ago? Yes, fans, the Doctor retired, but not to the Happy Home.)

      Whodathunkit…

  4. You can live off 1/4 of your total Social Security income.

    I know a few women who mostly lived off their husband’s or boyfriend’s Social Security and were shocked after his death to realize they had a drastically reduced income and were unable to maintain their previous lifestyle. I guess it works the same way for men when they lose their female partner.

    Alot of women only get about $900 a month in Social Security due to an irregular work history (think house wives and child care) and poor paying jobs. One woman I know is in her 80s, works part time and lives in senior housing. She pays $500 a month in a lice and roach infested building, but feels like she can’t move because her landlords will reduce her rent when she can no longer work. So, plan ahead. You don’t want to become her.

      • If you own your house, look into a “Transfer on Death Deed”. Many states now allow this legal step… Hawaii adopted it in 2017. You file a TOD deed with the county registrar, naming who will get the house. It becomes an automatic change of ownership upon the death of the primary owner. No lawyers, no probate involved. Look into it for your State.

  5. the most interesting technical analysis i have seen lately are the projections for the USD and interest . i remain firm on bonds , USD and shorts . the goldies i have had for years , so i just hold . all just make $$ in the money deep , cost nothing . anyway as my great jewish mate says in New York , patience and discipline make money . and i am a firm deflationist .

  6. “conspiracies to suppress breakthroughs”

    I don’t believe in the 1970’s water carburetor/mythical water-fueled cars, etc…. as example. And another thing! How could A.I. be manipulated to omit breakthroughs? If the water carburetor could be built A.I. can model one using the Threadripper.

    “The Kennedy Assassination”

    Like the Chupacabra/space aliens these style conspiracies will go on forever becasue subjective information is being withheld.

    • So from almost twice as far away as the sun…what happens again? Say, didn’t Leary teach at Harvard too? es, Timothy Leary did teach at Harvard University as a lecturer in clinical psychology starting in late 1959, alongside conducting famous psychedelic research (the Harvard Psilocybin Project) with Richard Alpert (Ram Dass) until his termination in 1963 for missing classes, though he claimed to have met his obligations.
      Perhaps, harvard with its ginormous endowment fund has a dandy galactic long-term disability clause?
      (say my bowl is empty…)

      • Possibly more relevant: Harvard psychiatrist John Mack who “helped” alien abductees. I followed his adventures until he died in 2004. He was a clear true believer. Just because it’s from Harvard doesn’t make it true.

    • Rumor has it that some developments on this object are being suppressed. Namely, that when all the telescopes were focused in, they saw……..the face of Elvis.

  8. I don’t want anything for Christmas. Have plenty of everything. If someone is swimming in dark chocolate and wants to unload then fine. Otherwise, fam. and friends could just pass (or, buy dark beer, it never goes to waste). There’s a difference between things I like and things I want. My suggestion is always take what you spend on what you don’t need to buy and stuff it into E3’s 529 plan. Hope he’s an Engineer but would be very proud of an electrician.

    Home from toil for Sis in town (on roads like eel shite), now a hero for suggesting we (Mrs. E ‘n me) go to dinner at the nearest seedy little bar. OK, it used to be seedy but is now quite nice. Or, I’m easier to please? Nah, couldn’t be that!

    Have a fine day. Stop by and shovel?
    Stay frosty (a given at 17F).
    Always, E

  10. I believe India wants silver to back its currency and Silver is now about to be used (consumed) by Lithium batteries for better storage.

  11. Dr. Eugene Mallove featured the theories of Dr. Harold Aspden in his magazine Infinte Energy. I still have it on my shelves, but missed it when it was first published.

    A few years later I would become consumed with Dr. Aspden’s theories.

    I have worked his equations into something people can recognize, and how beautifully they explain the constants in physics.

    I’ve been wondering if anyone else on planet Earth is even interested.

  12. My wish list for Christmas, in case anybody wins the full lottery Sat night.

    Simple and only two items

    Gulfstream 550 along with the money to pay it’s crew and full operating costs for 3 years. That would be a nice step up from my current plane …. a DJI drone. I am NOT greedy … at the end of 3 years you can have it back to use or sell. ;-)

    ==========================

    On another subject since I have talked about Silver a couple of times … on the news wire this week was the interesting story that Samsung was providing the money to RESTART a closed Silver Mine in Mexico (one of the largest pure silver mines in the country) that closed down back about 2019 (?).

    Clearly Samsung is trying to lock in silver supplies for it’s solid state battery which is silver based, and is willing to shell out millions so as to create increased silver production that will be going directly to them.

    Current world yearly silver production is running about 400 million ounces LESS than current consumption which is why silver is setting itself up for a long term supply problem … until new production can be brought on line OR technology changes so as to REDUCE the amount of silver currently being used (current use amounts is before any production of solid state silver based batteries even begins)

    Timing for the Samsung battery? Undisclosed but from the outside it looks to be about late 2027 for small scale production then ramping up over the following 24 months.

  13. From spaceweather.com

    AN ORBITAL HOUSE OF CARDS: Earth’s orbital environment has become dangerously fragile. A new study led by Sarah Thiele of Princeton University warns that if satellite collision-avoidance systems were knocked offline by a major solar storm, a catastrophic collision in low-Earth orbit could occur in as little as 2.8 days

    Satellite operators have long feared a doomsday scenario called the Kessler Syndrome–a runaway cascade of satellite destruction triggered by a single debris-producing impact. This paper argues we may not be in a Kessler cascade yet, but we are operating in conditions where one bad solar storm or software failure could start the CRASH Clock ticking.

    Enjoy your Starlink–while you can

    Read the entire article and linked paper

  14. Ho Ho Ho. Santa came early and dropped off my new zBITX!! Drooling all over it. George, it may be a tiny radio but it has an HDMI output for your monster monitor. Stephen2, rather than make you wait while I learn how to operate this thing, here’s the link to the user manual so you can see for yourself how great this little thing is. Did you push that “BUY” button yet??
    https://www.sbitx.net/index.php//zbitx-user-manual-download/

    It’s based on a Raspberry Pi and is open-source software, so future upgrades are possible for the software tinkerers.

    • Haven’t pushed the “Buy” button yet though have been solely tempted … was patiently awaiting your operating report.

      If you see this (I know I am posting it late) know that I will await your operating report before jumping in but it looks like something I really really want.

      Stephen

  15. Dr. Eugene Mallove was the only voice of officialdom who supported the work of Dr. Harold Aspden, which appeared in Dr. Eugene Mallove’s magazine Infinite Energy.

    Dr. Aspden’s work explains the constants of physics.

    I have spent two-decades making is math work understandable.

    https://gastewart.theageofdesolation.com/index.php/dr-harold-aspdens-masterpieces/

    Here is my discussion with ChatGPT analyzing that work.

    https://theageofdesolation.com/nostradamus/2025/09/17/pseudoscience-and-chatgpt/

  16. Dr. Eugene Mallove was the only person of officialdom who supported the work of Dr. Harold Aspden by publishing his work in Dr. Eugene Mallove’s magazine Infinite Energy.

    It is the only work that explains the constants of physics.

    I have spent two-decades making his math work easy to understand.

    https://gastewart.theageofdesolation.com/index.php/dr-harold-aspdens-masterpieces/

    Here is my analysis with ChatGPT.

    https://theageofdesolation.com/nostradamus/2025/09/17/pseudoscience-and-chatgpt/

  17. Dr. Eugene Mallove was the only person of officialdom who supported the work of Dr. Harold Aspden by publishing his work in Dr. Eugene Mallove’s magazine Infinite Energy.

    It is the only work that explains the constants of physics.

    I have spent two-decades making his math work easy to understand.

    https://gastewart.theageofdesolation.com/index.php/dr-harold-aspdens-masterpieces/

    Here is my analysis with ChatGPT.

    https://theageofdesolation.com/nostradamus/2025/09/17/pseudoscience-and-chatgpt/

  18. Tried to write a comment about Dr. Eugene Mallove, but it never went through like it usually does. Not sure if something is broken or different. On my home computer again and I cleaned out my cache; so, you might have 3 comments that are about the same.

  19. George : irt the ^ above, in past once you clicked *submit* your post displayed to write with notation “awaiting clearance Clarence” and, that’s now gone. The reloaded page (on which you just posted in comment section) skips to the top.

    Trying to get readers to reread? We kid. Posted for clarification. Some web features do not look/work the same if signed in as Master. Or, your AI is running the page and?

    E

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