Market Records, Sheep-Eyes, and Jobs

by

Yes:  This means Ewe.

Back in 2000 – when the Internet Bubble was blowing up – I noticed several things (even wrote them down) so as not to get “fooled again” by the Financial Crowd.  My Lessons?

  • A new high in a single (or couple) of indexes does NOT mean all is well.
  • Beware of “Faddish Accounting.”

Some Things Never Change

While the (liberal, Biden-loving) media repeat daily headlines about “Record Stock Prices” – it really depends which stock or index.

Because in our Larger View of things we’re still a ways from equaling the February 12th levels.

To update you – using our Aggregate Index approach to markets – here’s where we stand this morning (based on preopen futures pricing):

  • The Dow is up 2.88% from Feb. 12.
  • The S&P 500 is down 0.25%.
  • The NASDAQ?  Down 5.66%

So, if you bought TSLA stock Feb. 12 and gave $816 a share for it, and you too are wondering about records since it closed Wednesday at about $668, “Where’s these Records I keep hearing about?”

Shills, touts, and a financial press with its head up its assets – unable to bite the hand feeding it – have no particular interest in wide-spectrum views.  Because those, dear Reader, don’t pay the bills.

Ads for gunslinger trading outfits, on the other hand, are important.  If you tell people the The Casino is Crooked!  (and on fire from printing money!) people wouldn’t play.  Adverts wouldn’t pay, and the brightest of sheep wouldn’t stay.

Not that “first look, first trade” trading isn’t fun…we do a bit of it ourselves from time to time.

One Picture Tells It All

‘zis look like a record market to you?  (red is today, blue track was 1929):

As you can see, we are ALMOST back to where things were on Feb. 12.  But, like the old infantryman  saying goes, “Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.”  (The more TSLA you’re holding, the more this will make sense!)

Dinnertime on the Titanic

Even my consigliere is paying attention.  A new Aggregate high, tomorrow or next week, would re-set the 55-calendar/37-trading day clock.  He’s got a moon phase theory dating back to Steve Puetz work (in (and among others) The Unified Cycle Theory: How Cycles Dominate the Structure of the Universe and Influence Life on Earth, $49 Amazon).  Or his additional postulates in (Universal Cycle Theory: Neomechanics of the Hierarchically Infinite Universe, $60 Amazon).

If you’re asking “Neomechanics…wasn’t he in The Matrix?” all hope is lost.  On the other hand, if neomechanics of a hierarchically infinite Universe brings the specter of circularly referenced hierarchies (from which would spawn spiral calendar works), then hope’s intact.

In fact, if you’ve wolfed down Chris Carolan’s The Spiral Calendar and Its Effect on Financial Markets and Human Events ($26, Amazon) you may find yourself in the same quandary as the rest of us:  If the calendar is both spiral in form (Carolan) and neomechanically hierarchical (Puetz), how does that wire-up in [real]  nominal world?

And this simplifies to the only honest question left:  Can we make money with it?

Weekly Job Claims

The next financial psycho-session is the weekly new unemployment claims.  These have been turned into a media circus because over time, everyone runs out of benefits, so the number of “new filers” should decline from the Peak of Crisis.  But that’s only part of the fun.

The rest is (ewe-training) repeating the “lies oft told” about seasonal adjustments.  So we dispense with the hype and go right to the not-seasonally-adjusted portion of the report just out.  Because the guvvermint PR types call it:

“In the week ending March 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 712,000, a decrease of 42,000 from the previous week’s revised level.”

We – ignoring the seasoning see:

Still – lingers the Big Ugly – “How many have fallen off or run out of bennies?”  Dow futures up over 100, our skepticism notwithstanding.

Yeah, maybe a fresh high and next month might fit moon cycles better.  But the week ain’t over and the new Moon is this weekend.  (Said Farmer Ure who will be planting Saturday morning…)

Fed balance sheet after the close.  Producer Prices tomorrow – be alert to an unstable herd depending how much inflation is in there.

So, Overall, Then?

Here’s a sobering thought for you.  Let’s look at the Association of American Railways weekly traffic report, shall we?

“For the first nine weeks of 2021, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 1,987,433 carloads, down 5.7 percent from the same point last year; and 2,471,856 intermodal units, up 8.6 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first nine weeks of 2021 was 4,459,289 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 1.7 percent compared to last year.”

“Ure point?”

Well, if we have 8% fewer workers and consumption is up for the year, are any of those jobs coming back?  Sure, of course, some will.

But is it (just wildly possible at the margins) that we’re already undergoing compound effects of widespread ERP system adoption and automated manufacturing and (dare I utter this?) robotics?

See, the DATA is telling us “We need fewer workers – even with the collapse reported this month in productivity – so how do we save the financialization game on the one hand, while letting everyone sink into the cesspool of excess consumption?

I mean in a world where no one can type as fast as an Pentium I anyway?  Just thought I’d ask…

Calling the Mouton’s

Don’t be sheepish – admit you’re hooked on useless bullshit media.  running stories like:

Woke Joke du jour:  “Prince Williams says U.K. royals “very much not a racist family”.

Pelosi et al in hiding still.  As “McCarthy asks Pelosi when Capitol will return to pre-pandemic normal for proxy voting, tours, masks and more.”  I wouldn’t get too upset.  This is how failing coups isolate in (other) third world nations.  Send ’em more razor wire.

And is it really “news” that “Jennifer Garner is proud to ‘look like a woman who’s had three babies’“?  I mean when Elaine’s had six boys and not a stretch mark?   No idea why CNN hasn’t called.

Reality Checks

SloJoe watch:  Biden set to address nation on anniversary of COVID-19 pandemic.  Did you know March 11 is the “anniversary?”

Well, it is…and it isn’t.

“COVID-19 was declared a pandemic in March 2020 by the World Health Organization.Aug 25, 2020.”  Donald Trump declared it a National Emergency on March 12, but it was already a pandemic.

Otherwise, how could we possibly have written the column “5W Friday: Work, Wuhan, Witness, and Woo-Woo” on February 7, 2020?

No, this is not a virus “anniversary.”  Just more made-up political power-tripping, memory invocation (lead to followers programming), but mostly cheap pandering for ad sales.

Frankly, as anniversaries go, try today as the birthday back in 1903 of Lawrence Welk(a), American accordionist and orchestra leader (Lawrence Welk Show), born in Strasburg, North Dakota (d. 1992).  We’ll circle-back to the Lemon Sisters later.

How can people swallow phrases like “anniversary of pandemic” and not lose faith in the future?  We forget our pasture.

Besides All This?

Only two stories really matter around here:

Other than that?

The realities of Life are:

Weather:  (Cloudy and 78 here in Texas, possible blizzard up in Colorado today.)

Food:  (Steak and eggs for breakfast, cantaloupe thereafter.)

“Did you feed the cat?”

Obviously, brain shutdown has initiated…

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

28 thoughts on “Market Records, Sheep-Eyes, and Jobs”

  2. George,

    Like the comment, “Did you feed the cat?”. At our house, feeding the cats is like feeding cattle, etc. We already had 9 cats total, 4 at our house and 5 at the farm. All have a place to go inside at night or out of the cold. Night time is coyote time, so cats go to “safe” house.

    Gandalf, the grey, is the only full time house resident; but others inhabit either the shop or farmhouse at night. Wife made the comment that since we are getting older, we should downsize the herd. No sooner were these words uttered, when the neighbor’s 4 new cats show up as permanent residents at our house. I guess we feed better and offer more attention. Oh, I forgot to mention the extra stray that also made an appearance and stayed.

    So now we are at a grand total of 14, of which 4 require special food to prevent “bladder crystals”. Food is cheaper than trips to vet for treatment of “kidney stones”. Vet says that the ash content of dry food is culprit. Moist cat food does not seem to be a problem. Limited choice of dry foods low in excess minerals and all are expensive. Most name brand dry cat food that is inexpensive (Cat Chow,etc.), has a very high ash content. Ash content is described as the minerals left over when a certain sample size is incinerated. Magnesium seems to be the biggest offender.

    Feeding the cat at our house is a major ritual. Does this qualify me as a “cat herder”? Perhaps I need to get a “cat herder” license so I can deduct expenses.

    Anyway, just wanted to lighten the day a bit; given the projected path of the economy.

    • LS – have you considered a 12 gauge and flocks of Starlings / Thats how the farm cats around aimish country get fed. Here in Pennsyltucky – game commission has no restrictions on shooting the nasty, invasive species of bird – can even blast em on Sundays.

      • my outside cats are picky eaters when it comes to starlings, they need to be cold and hungry and then it is iffy. I bait the starlings with dry cat food to my shooting spots. Wont eat a grackle at all. Give them a house sparrow or eurasian collared dove and it is history. The little turds will jump 4 ft to my feeder and snag one of my songbirds on occasion
        This is one of my guns except I have the shorter compact version
        https://www.airgundepot.com/zbroia-kozak-tactical-air-rifle.html
        PCP, precharged pneumatic air rifle, all the way, got a muffler on it, quiet as all get out, and is more accurate than I am
        you could use a HW 95 or a Beeman R9 springer, quality break barrel springers, HW 30 or beeman R7 for lower, in town power, no need for expensive compressed air. Air is free till you compress it. I have a coltri diving compressor, about 3 grand, there are cheaper and more expensive brands, chyna vs europe. chyna stuff sucks , no QC on most chyna made products, not all, but most, buyer be,ware

        moon phases,, I seem to have my best luck gambling during new moon, no science just memory recall of jackpots, your mileage may vary, could be a persons internal tuning. we is all different(grammar police)

  3. George,
    Re-racking the charts (again)?! Moon phases?! What is that definition of “insanity” again? Well, it’s got to be right one of these times – doesn’t it? I prefer chicken entrails (extra crispy, please).
    Love y’all anyway. Glad to see Lady E’s recovery is progressing.
    73’s.

  4. March 11 is the anniversary of the Fukushima Diachi multiple meltdown. Let’s not forget that. It’s the gift that keeps on giving – even today.

    Covid was around in December 2019 at least. I got many the symptoms then and it put me down for most of a month. I remember the extreme tiredness vividly, along with relative shortness of breath. Neither of these are normal for me at all. At the time, I thought it was just flu, and the last time I had flu was in China over two decades ago. There were no tests at the time and I don’t do them anyway, so I don’t really count.

  5. Looks like gold is going over the falls. Nice.

    I went to the mall yesterday to check out the “gold by weight” jewelry store. Most of the anchor stores are boarded up. Big “For Lease”signs on the side of the vacant Sears. Nobody is coming.

    Macy’s and Nordstrom had big chunks of empty floor space. Though the Levi’s section @ Macy’s looked tidy and fully stocked. The competition was a vacant Lord and Taylor.

    • Yeah – real sourpusses those Lemmon Sisters

      now get Ure mind out of the produce section, and back to market valuations being all skew eyed & catiwhompuss = all F-ed up for those fromunda..

  7. George

    “Railways weekly traffic report, shall we?”

    Tuesday I was coming back from the Mississippi property and found myself on highway 11 between Pearl River and Slidell La. A major railroad track parallels that highway. On said track was a four engine mile and a half long train going 47 Mph. I know this as I was pacing it. Magnificent is what it was! A great show of human ingenuity and raw power! It was good for a change to see what man can put together to make economic progress happen instead of the daily dose of bad news.

    • Mike, do you have any idea of the carbon footprint for a diesel train? Do you realize how much CO2 they belch every day?

      We need to rip out these foul diesels and replace them with fully electric locomotives…

      /s

      • Yea, Yea, CO2 here, CO2 there, that plant food needs to be everywhere! If it was my train I would have put two more engines on that string to get it to go 67 MPH instead of a measly 47. Damn the environmentalist full power to the engines Scotty!!

      • Knuckle dragging homo -erectuses..

        All Ure tech is like over 100 years old ..all of it..diesel?gas?electric?

        Clean Energy – NOT green – Clean , like the food U should be eating if you can – CLEAN.

        See Atlantis (Bahamas-Bimini/Andros) – A giant Tuaoi Cyrstal. These bad boys can power everything..Cant put a meter on that kinda nrg..

        The plans for constructing one can be found in a hall of records near you..Yucatan, Egypt, Bahama/Cuba hotspot = west coast..and you thought it was all about trafficking in the Caribbean our Military was swarming all over..

  9. The virus had a name but it didn’t have a face until the night of March 11 when Utah Jazz player,Ruby Gobert,announced that he had contracted it.An hour later,Tom Hanks and his wife-in Australia at the time-said the same thing.It was off to the races.

    A year later,the Four Tops are still singing the same old song.

  10. Congratulations to the evil facists that have destroyed planet earth. They have won , people like me who have a correctly functioning mind are on the way out . So veges and vege masters you can have it you win the sewer called rsearth . And a special mention for broke China and USSA . Both are equally involved in this charade . So go to the stars and destroy more places

  11. Reread the 5W column.Spooky.I have always had dreams that are like a second life.Have the same type of one where the sky is full of combat air craft,futuristic stuff but not flying saucer alien stuff .We are all on the street watching.Some are ours,most are theirs.I have yet to get to the climax as to who “they”are.Neither myself or anyone else seems too surprised by what is happening.

    ‘

  12. “unemployment claims… everyone runs out of benefits, so the number of “new filers” should decline from the Peak of Crisis”

    My understanding is most everyone did run out of benefits. The new Stimmy “extends” the “exhausted” benefits 48 weeks. The Feds are picking up the tab for extended state unemployment programs.

    • BOHICA Sparticus – The Feds will be transferring a fraction of that tab 2 Ure wallet, year after year in perpetuity.

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