Market Primed and “Blow-Off Ready”

by

The stock market is already AT NEW HIGHS – it just hasn’t hit the news yet because individual indices – like the Dow – have not confirmed.

That’s where our Peoplenomics.com subscribers have a leg-up on other investors.  You see, we use something I developed long-ago to get at the Truth of Markets – which is often not apparent in the headlines.

I call it the “Aggregate Index.”  The reason for the Index is simple:  I was thoroughly disgusted with the (lying) in the securities industry in the post Internet Bubble collapse era.  There we were – with between $5 and $8-TRILLION of American investments wiped out – and yet the securities industry papered-it over!

It was a con job on a massive scale.  Unfortunately, it was easy to pull-off.  See, prior to the DotBomb, everyone was referring to the “techs” as “leading the way” into the future.  But, when the NASDAQ cratered, it became a bastard-child of “the Street” and no one referred to it any longer.  Why should they?  It was the all-time turkey for many years.  The Dow and the S&P were touted as “safe.”

Here lately, the FAANG stocks have resurrected the NASDAQ and today with about what, 60 points from yet-another record, we think this is a slam-dunk.

The way we were able to pierce the veil of stock-talk gobbledygook was simple:  We evolved a US Aggregate that modeled equal numbers of dollars into multiple indices.  That allowed us to offer clearer insights into the market because every week, when the US closes and weekend settles around the world, there’s a window when all the global “Hot Money” stands still.  Say cheese!

Realizing this, and taking weekly pictures of it since 1999, has given us a unique view.  In fact, again yesterday, the US market hit very close to another AGGREGATE ALL-TIME HIGH.  Tuesday was IT so far.

As a result, in my view, in a few days the individual indices ought to pop, as well. I think before the end of the month.

Before I tell you what will happen next, let me show you why this matters in the longer term. We are Replaying 1929.

The present era is eerily similar to 1929.  In fact, as you can see in this chart (shared with Peoplenomics.com subscribers yesterday) you can clearly see the case for a pending blow-off top of the US market.

This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE – just my view of the dta.

What do I expect NEXT?

Glad you asked!  The next logical thing (though the markets are far from logical, lol) is for a rally strongly into next Thursday.  In my work, there’s a case for maybe a small decline (or not) a week from tomorrow and following into Monday the 20th.  But then I’m expecting the final blow off highs to roll in through August 23, or so.

How does a blow-off work?

The mechanics of a blow-off are simple:  We have, at the moment, a fair number of investors who have been waiting for the market to collapse. New All-Time Highs take this outcome off the table.

The Chicken class? They cite fears of trade wars, Trump’s removal from office in the webolutionary coup (which won’t happen, at least yet) and the “sum of all fears” – climate, Tesla, blah, blah, blah…..

As soon as the new highs are recognized, the “chicken money” on the sidelines will come pouring in.  That’s why – in 1929 – you saw the last big wave of sucker-buying at the top.  I believe the odds are moving better-than-even that history will repeat itself sooner than later.

Is today different than 1929?  Well, yes and no.

Sure, the Fed has better computational models and there’s a lot more in the social safety net area for people in general, but the long-simmering fear of a Second Depression hasn’t gone away.

As I’ve been writing (mainly on the Peoplenomics side, for the people in the expensive seats – $40-bucks a year, lol), we already see government having prepped for an almost-inevitable financial train wreck by setting up the “pilot programs” that will become the modern analogs to the Works Progress Administration and the Civilian Conservation Corp of the first Great Depression as we sink into the second.

People in government have known for a long time that in the Second Depression, we need to have an “instant works program” on ‘hot standby’ in case the economy craters.  There’re just too many triggers and pot holes to avoid:  Big oil money, the drug cartel, trade wars, and financial institutions that claim Too Big To Fail st5atus (TBTF) in order to hold-up Congress by taking the whole nation as financial hostages….all roads at some point lead to collapse.

“AmeriCorps is an initiative of the Corporation for National and Community Service (CNCS), which also oversees the Senior Corps and the formerly-funded Learn and Serve America.[6] It was created under President Bill Clinton by the National and Community Service Trust Act of 1993,”

Clinton didn’t “see” anything in particular…but congress did – and we have long-postulated a long-range continuity of government office that quietly models the future and lays out options.

There are also monetary reasons for collapse to be considered. The US dollar has less than 4-cents worth of purchasing power left, compared with the power of a pre-Fed 1912 dollar.  Those, BTW, were convertible to something fungible – gold and silver.  Not since Nixon.  And no, there’s nothing fungible about the energy pissed away mining cryptos…don’t delude yourself.

Thing is, these are AmeriCorp programs mean with a stroke of a presidential pen, they can ramped-up, almost overnight.

But that’s getting ahead of things.  Right now, as of yesterday, our Aggregate Index closed within 12 points of Tuesday’s record high.  Summer optimism should push the indices up more.

We’ll be the quiet folks on the sideline muttering occasional KAH-CHING!

Tops Don’t Happen Evenly

Take March 24, 2000.  S&P Closed around 1,527.46.  The NASDAQ had hit its high 5,048.62 (on a weekly closing basis) two weeks earlier.

And, two weeks later, the Dow came within two points of a second high.  But, then it was over.

We won’t spoil the models, but do pay attention to what MIGHT be hinted at in the red letters in the chart.

Simply put, our data says a “Paradigm shifter” is possible between the last week of August and third week of September.  Not saying it will happen, but we also can’t rule it out and it’s significant-enough that we have penciled 60-days prior to the general election (November 6) as being a “hot date.”

We are starting to look for resolution of Mueller, et alia, around September 5-6.  How it resolves may drive the market for a long while thereafter.  And if not Mueller, sweeping government control on social media, perhaps?

The Digital Uprising has gotten TOO REAL and it’s not something that can remain static much longer.  Government will not sit idly by.

Now, back to the morning’s noise flow.

Producer Prices

Just out from Labor:

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.3 percent in June and 0.5 percent in May. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in July. In July, a 0.1-percent rise in the index for final demand goods offset a 0.1-percent decline in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.3 percent in July, the same as in June. For the 12 months ended in July, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services climbed 2.8 percent.”

After the data, futures were up 23 on the Dow.

Also Worth Headspace

Most of what passes as “news” isn’t.  But here’s an assortment that may be useful:

Two currency moves begin: U.S. sanctions whack Russia’s rouble, Turkey’s lira free-falls.  And read this backgrounder from Foggy Bottom: Imposition of Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act Sanctions on Russia.

Here’s a press release where they’re “singing our song:” Nearly Half of Americans Say Volatile Markets Are an Easy Way to Make a Profit: AICPA Survey.

Chinese state media accuse U.S. of ‘mobster mentality’, vow to fight tariffs…

And see this Reuters Factbox: China tariffs on revised list of $16 billion U.S. goods.

Last, but not least, of interest to cyclical economic depression wonks, did you see where Systemic Risk Council Opposes Federal Reserve and OCC Proposals to Reform Leverage Ratio and Volcker Rule?

OK, off to the breakfast table.  After that, I have to press the Scrooge McDuck suit for next week…Getting the Montgomery Burns suit ready for mid-September.

“Excellent!”  And moron the ‘morrow…

 

 

27 thoughts on “Market Primed and “Blow-Off Ready””

  1. My remote viewing of the Wed NC Pick 3 Lottery of 8-3-5 did not win, but the numbers were 5-5-8. Two numbers correct. I played ANY ORDER for $.50 & lost. Not bad for first viewing. In the future, I will play EXACT & ANY ORDER for $1.00.

    • Were you trying to remote view the numbers themselves? RV is, generally speaking, lousy at detecting future numbers.
      You may get better results if you assign a picture to each number from 0 to 9. For example, 0 is a peach, 1 is a snake, 2 is a bird, etc. Make them very different but common images and easy to draw.
      Then you try to RV the picture that will be generated from the winning 3-digit number. Keep in mind it could be 3 birds, 2 birds and a peach, etc.
      Once you have the picture, you can use it to generate the numbers for your ticket. If you play ‘any order’ you don’t have to worry about image placement.
      Your accuracy will about triple if you RV the picture between 12:30 and 14:30 Local Apparent Sidereal Time (LST).
      Also, pick an exact date and time after the draw, when you will generate the actual picture from the lottery results. If you pick a set time, date, and location of the target (or as many of these as possible), preferrably also within the 2-hour LST window, it will greatly increase your accuracy. If you forget to generate the image at the correct time, date, and place, your result accuracy will suffer.

      Example:
      It is Monday, the 3-digit draw is Wednesday, and you think you will have time to generate the RV-picture target on Thursday. You look up the LST window for your time zone, and it will occur on Monday at 16:22 to 18:22 local time, and on Thursday at 16:19 to 18:19 local time.
      You decide to generate the RV-picture target on Thursday at 17:00 in your dining room on the table.

      Now, you target the RV picture that will occur on Thursday at 17:00 on your dining room table. What objects will appear in the picture?
      You view two snakes and a bird.
      Since ‘snake’ = 1, and ‘bird’ = 2, the results of your trial are 1,1,2.
      You can now buy a lottery 3-digit for the Wednesday draw, any order.

      NOTE: Whether you win or lose, PARTICULARLY if you win, YOU MUST GENERATE THE PICTURE AT 5 PM THURSDAY from the winning lottery numbers, at your dining room table. If you don’t, there will be no target and your results are likely to be no better than random.

      Good luck–Let us know if this method works for you. :-)

      • Thank you for your input. I am using 10 fixed pictures to generate the numbers. I see the picture in my mind & then use its corresponding number. I do it in my recliner. It is my happy place.

      • If I remote view using all of the best techniques, can get profitable lottery odds?

        Better question …Remote view this …today do I pick spxs or spxl? Futures are down, I’m thinking spxl at the open.

    • You can build a lottery matrix and eliminate numbers.

      As example, if you play 001 boxed you don’t have to play 010 or 100.

      Play 123 boxed and you don’t have to play the 132, 213, 312, 231, or 321 combinations.

      You get the idea.

      • So for the 3-digit Steve, are you looking at 3 matrices that look like the keypads of digital phones? Or possibly a single 3 x 10 box matrix with three columns of the 0 to 10 number line? It would be interesting to see what matrix you are using, and to get an example of what it looks like when you have eliminated the numbers. I am wondering if you are also using an imagery method.
        For example, lets say you have a 3 x 10 matrix with a number in each box–That’s 3 columns of 0 to 9 from bottom to top. You could think of the final 3-digit result as a sort of 3-star constellation on the small rectangular sky of the matrix. Then, all you have to do is color the night sky of the matrix black, except for the three shining stars that pattern out your 3-digit target. Am I on the right track here?

        ECS–
        That sounds like a good approach, and 2 out of 3 correct is way above what would be expected for a random result!
        I got the idea for using at least 2 out of the three characteristics of date/time, place, and object from the writings of Joseph MacMoneagle. He is one of the best remote viewers used by the US Government in its Stargate Project. If anyone wants to read about what he did and how to try it yourself, here’s a link to one of his books;

        https://www.amazon.com/Memoirs-Psychic-Spy-Remarkable-Government/dp/1571744827

  2. If one were conspiracy minded, in a Machiavellian kind of way, it would not be unreasonable to assume the political and social media vitriol are little more than distractions for certain ‘other’ things yet to come. RE: conspiracy, why ban Alex Jones from social media? He’s obsessed with preaching about the the dawning of a New World order precipitated by a planned economic crisis followed by serious Hunger Games across America and a reformation of society. The chaos that comes part and parcel with such an economic collapse also serves as a societal reset button, of sorts. Those totally dependent upon the social welfare system for essentials will perish when the system shuts down. Cruel, but Darwinian. Disturbing, but strangely possible.

    • We are reminded that the canary in the coal mine turns out to be right when everyone later dies.
      AJ’s a big canary in our view and while not nearly as aerodynamic, still useful.
      He’s a trail-blazer for more to follow.
      Again it goes to the reason we have not based any of our business model on social(ist) media. Those that can seize power generally do at some point. This is that point in the webolution.

      • Alex Jones a Trail Blazer? Uhhh….NO. He is a self professed entertainer. He is the WWF/WWE of conspiracy obsessed listeners. In his recent divorce proceeding, his own lawyer called Alex a “performance artist playing a character.” Lately, he has gone off the rails and that kind of sick and totally fake conspiracy talk has gotten a bit too much for most. He has a business model and he makes money saying stupid stuff that unfortunately, a lot of people think is viable. Spoiler alert…it is not… I think he is dangerous. That’s why he is being banned.

      • Perhaps this is “a test run”…knock off the biggest, loudest, most extreme voice out there….and see what the kickback is.

        If the blowback is tolerable…and so far it has been…one could then shutdown 100s if not 1,000s of small fish, and finish with the larger remaining fish.

      • Alex Jones Is In Cahoots with Qanon and Trump and it’s all planned so that they will take down Alex Jones before the elections and so the hand of the big social medias will be exposed so that action can be taken before hand, I told you he is a very good chess player

      • George…two wrongs don’t make a right. I never implied that Michael Moore is not as dangerous…You can’t take him seriously either, but at least you know where he stands. I get it…he hated Bush and despises Trump…his motivation, like Alex Jones is based purely on making money. They are both Charlatans.

        Ironically, Alex and Michael agree on one thing to an extent…that 911 and the Bush administration was corrupt. Both are 911 Truthers to some extent.

        But Alex has had some doozies like Sandy Hook, Pizzagate, the Gay Bomb-and him actually interviewing a guy that thinks 2000 sex slaves are being sent to Mars. That’s just Bat crazy and makes you scratch your head.

      • The old Empire is crumbling and has to readjust to The Domain Force.

        Take a Skyview.
        Take a solar system View.
        Take a Galaxy View.
        Take a Universal universe View.
        Take an interdimensional View.
        Take a view of all the other species and all the other places in our honeycomb Earth where people like us live, but don’t want to partake with our warmongering system.
        But they are welcoming Trump and the changes that he was given the task to assist with.
        Some people see the philosophy of don’t let one thing get you down go around it’s a great play in chess another games’s yes I see that I’m going to go around it and I’m gone to set the Trap and let,,,,,,,,,

    • You think “Those dependent on the social welfare programs will perish?” No they won’t. They’ll rob, steal, pilfer and acost those who they perceive as having what they need. Just like the homeless campers do in many of the west coast cities do now.

      Hungry people will do things they otherwise wouldn’t have ever considered, when they were properly fed. Better hope things don’t get that bad.

      As I always say, our govt has every incentive to assure things don’t get that bad. Lets hope that doesnt ever change.

      • Unfortunately..I personally think that the business environment in the USA was setup to promote social program growth.
        By developing an environment that would promote executive financial growth and the outsourcing of career choices that could have potential personal growth to blue collar workers gave those pushing their agenda of control over the masses creating an expansion of those seeking the programs .
        The overall assumption that someone without insurance as an example would care less for their family members got enough backing to sway the public to vote in a president under the illusion that the healthcare and insurance industry would be accessible by everyone. Instead they were the ones that wrote the legislation that is creating an even bigger mess.
        What I see happening is the change in the programs that will widen the gap between the haves and the have nots.

    • Ive often times thought Alex Jones is an agent provocateur. A compensated domestic CIA asset.

      I don’t believe Michael Moore is an agent provocateur. He’s more the SJW type.

  3. Controlled Opposition = A.J., and J.Assange..word is both are mossadniks.
    Jones also recently displayed a real nasty “red eye” with tons of coverup on TV broadcast. The Left Red Eye/ Left Back Eye Ritual..get yourself “invested”. No. no this too must be a CONSPIRACY, never mind McStain, Kerry, Bush all have gone thru the ritual. Wonder why George, I wonder why all these hollywood types and certain politicians keep having the same accident where they ALWAYS “hurt” the LEFT EYE..hmmm

  4. Re.: “US Aggregate.” (which is fine, btw.!)

    If you’d added a few other major world averages to the Aggregate, to make it a WORLD-Aggregate, the picture looks less certain to potential blow-off, just saying.

    • What non subscribers don’t know is that there already is a Glbal Aggregate – four charts of it including the long term, the shorter term, the oscillator, and the relative strength of USA vs Rest of world. You don’t seriously think we’d miss that one, do you?

      • Mr. George, I didn’t mean to imply that you were not aware of circumstances, so sorry! However, my posting made me re-consider my thoughts concerning blow-off. If the world’s markets don’t look like performing, then all that “EXCESS” money might pour into MAGA. ;-(
        We’ll know by Christmas, and minute charts may come in handy, perhaps.
        P.s. The reason I’m a N/S is age related.

Comments are closed.