Reader Note: We will put up a fresh post when the new Case-Shiller Housing Market data is released. Look for the update about 8:15 AM Central.
The return on my personal portfolio for the year should jump into double-digits, the way futures are looking this morning. That’s because “when the market dumps, Ure jumps.”
Ah, joys of being a contrarian old cuss.
We will have some outlooks tomorrow on Peoplenomics tomorrow for subscribers, but for now the outlook is still mixed. A big drop this morning doesn’t translate into fabulous wealth, but the number of cheeseburgers for lunch today will be up in the thousands in today’s trading, if the futures hold.
Being a Bear (one expecting the End of the World any minute but wanting to make a few bucks on the way out) is not a permanent condition for us. But, sometimes it’s the obvious choice when we look at the problems loose in the world.
The most worrisome thing recently is this matter of Sweden sending all residents a pamphlet on how to prepare for war.
This comes at a time when the Global Economy seems to either have peaked, or it’s about to.
We don’t usually share Peoplenomics content, but one of the data series we track for subscribers is a Global Aggregate Index. Here’s what it looked like Saturday:
So, what is this chart telling us?
Well, if you go back to the fall of 2000 – after the peak of the Internet Bubble, and move forward, you can see how from the 2003 lows, the Global Index moved up in parallel with the US Greenspan serial bubblizer.
When the crap hit the fan in 2008 – due to too much of a good thing (free money and nodoc loans) we collapsed in a heap.
Here’s where it gets important: Since the 2009 lows, you will see that we have moved up what counts as five complete Elliott Waves. If you don’t understand what Elliott waves are, you need to read R.N. Elliott’s Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior.
If that turns your crank, don’t miss this (almost $100) nail-biter: Harmonic Elliott Wave: The Case for Modification of R. N. Elliott’s Impulsive Wave Structure. (After doing so, you’ll understand why I don’t get invited to parties. But, if you make enough money, who cares, right?) By the way, only $48 for Kindle which is cheaper than building more bookshelves as we figure it.
Back to point, we like playing the short side of markets especially toward the end of May (“sell in May and go away” didn’t become an old saying for nuthin!) and when the macro long-term, standing-across-the-room squinting version of the charts looks like collapse is at hand.
Here’s another thing to consider: We have what,7.6 BILLION people in the world? If you live in Seattle (*inside the city limits) there are 764,000 people, plus or minus Andy the big-rig hauler’s position).
Wrap your head around this number: Global population is now 9.937 Seattles in size!
We are screwed when comes to growth. In order for the global pop to hold-together, we need to find some way to keep 7.6 billion people BUSY.
On the hard goods side, we have run into the wall. How many cars can one person use? Now, the big push is to automate cars so car companies can charge even MORE for them, even though the same basic functionality (get me from here to thar) hasn’t changed.
Right now, high-end pick up trucks of the Big Three are touching $85,000. Bet your ass that with self-driving, they will top $100,000.
This is why Uber and Lyft are important: They are preparing for the world of the unaffordable car. If you provide the service — without the monthly bill – that would be the best of all worlds, right?
Except, the way business models work, other industries blow up. For example, the big car insurance companies…they are sending out reminders to insurance holders like me that they won’t cover any rides (paid for by others) in our 12-year old Lexus. There goes another career choice, right?
We could go through the whole, circular, dragon swallows its tail problem until the cows come home. Or, as you’ll read in Coping this morning, till the Chickens Come Home.
And what about Ebola? Not to sound conspiratorial and all, but did you catch where Ebola Vaccinations Begin in Congo Town of Bikoro Where Outbreak Was First Declared?
I’m telling you, and quite seriously so, if militants of one stripe, or another, start handing out free airline tickets, the global population could collapse in no time.
But, enough of such pessimism. The Dow futures are down. Ure is jumping for joy with all the grace of an overweight polar bear. Like the kids say, though, it is what it is.
Sorry about accidentally revealing one of my market positions last week – didn’t mean to do that. Said I was going short. Accident, sorry. Today that MAY change, but we don’t give advice. We just love the casino-at-home (trading platform) life.
Why, any minute, Elaine will be through the office in a tutu “Drinks, free drinks?”
When the market closes today, I’m likely to take her up on it. Seems the thing to do when a decent bet has gone Ure way.
Speaking of Games & Gamers
Note for gamers from contributor warhammer:
This linked article brought to mind the 1980s gamer movie, “The Last Starfighter,” in which a video gamer gets plucked from Earth to fight a galactic war after he aces a rather complex video game.
Tech skills are so critical in the services these days that online recruiting seems like a brilliant idea. Pilots are certainly no exception, although there’ s a huge difference playing a game on a stationary screen (or with VR goggles on the couch) than being strapped into a rocket and pulling 7 Gs upside down. Also, there are some who might (legitimately) consider this selection approach akin to ‘cyber-stalking,’ with parents out of the loop until the military tracks down the game via their IP address and sends them a message. I imagine this will eventually be something for the courts to decide.
I’m wondering how many over-30 types will screw with the system, confounding the recruiters in the process. One must be no older than 28.5 years of age when they meet a pilot training selection board. In times of war, this criteria would likely expand a bit.
So brush up on your video gamer skills. You might find an Air Force recruiter knocking on the door to your shop one day soon. Since you are already a licensed pilot, maybe they’ll let you fly drones from your shop?”
Only – if at age 69 – they will let me in.
I figure if they do have an interest, the country will be in a horrible war that’s not going well. I’d be the last possible used pilot on the market, if I were running HR..
Dear EU Clown Posse
They are requiring (*under threat of blocking) that websites visible in the EU must give users the option of opting out of cookies in their travels.
As I wrote in the Website Progress piece this morning, this is one of the most wrong-headed things EVER. The globalists already have MOUNTAINS of detailed data on EVERYONE and that goes for governments, as well. What the hell do the EU clowns think we’ve been doing with the NSA castle (surrounded by a moat) up in Provo, Utah? We have likely been building a file on EVERYONE IN THE WORLD because information is power and government wield lots of what?
GDPR (WETFTM – what ever the…well, figure it out) aside, here’s further evidence of mental breakdowns in governance:
Meantime, the EU – still busy trying to perfect the art of the free lunch – pretends to matter when comes to trade. See EU trade chief to meet U.S. peers Ross, Lighthizer in Paris on Wednesday for details.
In the background, U.S. and EU again at odds over Airbus subsidies at WTO and Trump’s trying not to get us hosed while the bashers bash-on.
And what would what conservatives call the Clinton News Network say? Check Chelsea Clinton is exactly right about Trump.
Not that is changes his Trumpjectory: President Trump to Meet With Shinzo Abe Ahead of ‘Expected’ North Korea Summit.
Near as we can figure it, just another bad day in the Swamp with NorK talks on again, off again, on again, but who knows?
Things Go Better with Booze?
Sayeth the Wall Street Urinal Journal this morning: “Cheers! Coca-Cola Launches Its First Alcoholic Drink.”
Would have been more interesting to put the coke back in Coke, but no one listens to our marketing advice, anymore.
Speaking of Marketing
On YT this morning we see to where “Prince Harry, Meghan Markle rumoured to honeymoon in Alberta.”
Royal pain in the news, as we see it. We’d like to see any Canadians kneeling deported to England….
Peoplenomics tomorrow – more here on the free side Thursday.