This is really a grand game. Ures truly take about a new car’s worth of dough, throw it into short-side (to make money when the market go down) buying Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) just before the Global Mood Shifts.
Our modest goal is to improve the timing accuracy of the systems described on the subscriber site, www.peoplenomics.com.
Our detractors love us being on the “wrong side” for a few days, be we don’t honestly mind. It’s fun to watch The Establishment (which we call The Network for clarity) try to spin things their way. Take this weekend, for example:
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For one, there was Trump saying, in so many words, “Here come the tax cuts – believe it.”
While it offers a kind of MAGA (make American great again vibe), we have been more explicit than usual in explaining how Trump is being advised incorrectly on this key policy point. In fact, on the Peoplenomics side, I recently explained in detail “Why Reagan Tax Cuts Won’t Work Now.”
And it’s not like I’m the Lone Ranger here. NBC offers a similar view in ““The GOP Tried Trump-Style Tax Cuts in Kansas. What a Mess.”
Today, minions of The Establishment are admitting that a “Million dollar bracket in the works for GOP tax plan.”
More RINO BS, but we have to say that doesn’t sound like the “party of the People” does it?
Still, Trump knows that what voters want to hear is tax cuts are coming, so pardon our skepticism. Especially from a congress that can’t legislate its way out of a paper bag or bad healthcare plan, either.
To be fair, this is not to be too critical of Trump. The Network (the British-American Establishment) is desperate to marginalize Trump. It’s made clear in the Financial Times’ “US business battles for cherished tax breaks.”
The Establishment is also pulling their marionette strings to bash Trump (and the people surrounding him) on all possible fronts.
The front page of the Washington Post site today might as well have been written by Antifa with “Lawmakers question Trump’s dealmaking skills, consider him an unreliable negotiator” and “Sen. John McCain hits Trump where it hurts, attacking ‘bone spur’ deferments in Vietnam.”
As we have been explaining for months, the coming showdown between what is essentially a “real estate president” (who understands the hit online retailers are dishing out to mall operators) and the Washington Post which is Amazon’s Jeff Bezos’ paper, ought to be a slow-motion epic.
We look for the Post to become even more skeptical of anything connected with Trump for a simple reason: “President Trump Nominates Joe Simons to Chair the Federal Trade Commission; President Also Nominates Noted Consumer Protection Advocate Rohit Chopra to the Commission ”
It’s axiomatic around here (so says Zeus the Cat) that Amazon’s new “Second headquarters” will likely be driven more by political and antitrust considerations than raw economics. Zeus points to “The federal lawmakers who regulate Amazon are begging the company to move to their home states” as substantiating the view.
Ah, the joys of the (wink-wink, nudge-nudge) world of “clean” capitalism, huh?
Meantime, the Post assault on all-thing-Trump continues in “The most popular parlor game in Washington: Who will replace Tillerson?”
This, you should understand, is yet-another Network attack on Trump because the Establishment embeds in the State Department (Foggy Bottom) are used to running the world to the old neocon playbook. They are (and despite Tillerson/Trump) a key breeding ground of what former president Bush admitted last week was “…the governing class…” to which we’ve not been invited.
Playing the Mood Shift in Advance
Back to point, we also see the mood-shift covering Korea, as well. In part because CNN has cued the liberal hand-wringers with “Why Trump’s Korean war talk should be taken seriously.”
Not doubt it will be the next item on the Establishment’s Trump attack list. It’s an obvious chance for minions of The Network to call Trump all kinds of things (insane among them) because Trump’s plans to defend America run into Globalist agendas all over the place.
Not to mention putting US B-52’s back in the air 24/7 has caught the eye of Russia Today. “‘World is a dangerous place’: US prepares to put B-52 nuclear bombers on high alert.”
So Watch the Minions. But even so, control is not perfect. 18 hours ago, USA Today report “Jimmy Carter: The media has been harder on Trump than predecessors.”
We’d score that as a Truth Leak.
Jail Maxine!
More evidence of the privilege of the governing class is seen when Maxine Waters speaks in public of “offing” the President without being nailed by the Secret Service. Youtube meantime, begins to look complicit in covering this up by removing the video of her saying it!
If you or I did that? I’m thinking jail time. Sure, Waters is black, a woman, in holds office. But does that mean she can speak publicly about killing a sitting President? Were she white, male, and not in office, I’d bet the Secret Service would have interviewed her already – and she’d perhaps be in jail…
We’re not sure how this works, but it looks very much like a ‘governing class’ Untouchable.
White, black, purple and any gender (I’ve lost count, sorry) we’re still a nation of laws….or are we?
Threats to kill are not acceptable, and so neither is Waters. If someone like Bernie has said it, our view would be the same.
Unacceptable bullshit.
The China Korea Game
Peoplenomics this weekend went into an even deeper discussion of how China fits in all this. But even if you don’t subscribe, pay extreme close attention to tales of Chinese duplicity on North Korea.
For example? “China defends August trade boost with North Korea, saying it was permitted under UN sanctions.”
We’d expect this will be the main one to watch.
Speaking of China, did you see where Tesla Strikes Deal With Shanghai to Build Factory in China?
Meantime, Back to Our Economic Roots
The point of going short last week was to catch a “mood shift” – because when the public mind changes, so do pricing decisions.
Is there a chance that the All-Time-High for the market was last week (On a closing basis)?
Futures suggest the Dow could go up 20, but I don’t expect the close to be up. The mood swing seems to be starting.
Chicago Fed Data Out
“Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved up to +0.17 in September from –0.37 in August. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from August, and three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was unchanged at –0.16 in September.”
Oh yeah….and Bitcoin: $5,793. Down from last week’s levels.
As I was saying about “mood swings.”
Mor’on the morrow…
Gee George, are you implying that we are about to hear a giant sucking sound?
would I be short with real money (none of this madeup computer sucker scrip for us) otherwise?
RE: B-52s potentially pulling alert again . . . it’s been 26 years or so since the venerable BUFF routinely sat fully loaded on the Christmas Tree (bomber apron at the end of the runway). They do ‘generate’ (loading the bombers with weapons, codes and documents) from time-to-time for major, pre-announced exercise purposes, but quickly pull the weapons off the planes before they participate in any exercise flying ops [the USAF traditionally will neither confirm nor deny the presence of nukes at any base or on any aircraft]. The time it takes to put a BUFF on alert is classified, but considering the weapon safety aspects involved in storqge, transportation and uploading, it isn’t exactly like throwing a light switch. But fully loaded with a full contingent of weapons and jet fuel, the lumbering beast weighs in excess of 1/2 million pounds at takeoff. Maybe that’s why each B-52H model has 8 Pratt & Whitney TF33-P-3 turbofans with a maximum thrust of 17,100 lbf each.
Not only that – the parts are mostly reworked at this point in time. This crate is very long in the tooth, with the B-52H basically being on line in numbers since 1962/3, so it’s around 52 years of service for the H model. Wow – coinkydink!
Keeping them in service was a lot of work – maybe somebody that worked at Barksdale AFB can comment on that. Or Minot, but my cousin (deceased) was a navvy on one for a good decade – and he told me that it took a day on the ground for every hour of flight time due to the paucity of parts and mechanics that understood the maintenance, and that was in the 1980’s.
My guess is that it would probably take a minimum month or so to even get them ready, like Warhammer says. Most of the guys that worked extended maintenance for the B-52 are long retired.
And if the AF is planning a surprise, this is NOT the bird. Huge radar sig, huge profile, black jet exhaust and if you do not wear hearing protection and happen to be behind one on takeoff, it’s likely to curtail your hearing for a while afterwards.
We used to sit on the I-20 shoulder easement in Bossier, LA and just hold our hands over our ears as they took off overhead. The exhaust and thrust literally shook your chest cavity, and you could be driving on that interstate and think it was an earthquake when they took off at night.
That easement was right at the end of the extra-long B-52 runway – another issue, since it limits where they can be based or operated, making it easy for satellites to see them on the ground.
George. Can’t we give it a rest on the ‘everybody is attacking poor old Trump’ already? It’s goofy talk. Mike
What kind of Trotskyite bullshit is this? When it was Trump being bashed, it was OK b ut when the foo is on the other chute, so to speak….like I said, there’s a social mood swing in play here and you’re late to the party
George, if the mood swing is to embrace an ill-mannered perpetually lying scrub, count me out. My 15% taxes isn’t worth it. Mike.
Oh no, the mood swing isn’t about Obama.
Or Hillary.
Dec deadline for budget to keep govt agencies open….
Be nice to Daddy Koch or no election $..
(which will be pointless, once the crash takes hold, the populace will want to throw the Republican bums out and start over…)
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-koch-bannon-gop-20171016-story.html
I wouldn’t be mentioning ‘Trotsky’ when the president seems to be overly fond of Putin and the Russians . . .I wish that Trump would stick to governing and not get involved in ‘yelling’ at soft targets like widows. He should stay off Twitter; it’s not presidential!
Look up Uranium One and it ain’t Trump whose name…
And on Twitter, it’s how he leapfrogs the MSM to communicate with his base…
Born in 1944? NFW Come on, pull my other leg so I don’t limp all day long! Seriously, I’m impressed.
uh huh…yup (grin) Like I say we both get SS, lol
I understand the theory of tax cuts..but can we do it? We are still printing paper to buy paper and the interest on what we’ve borrowed is so upside down..the wealthiest one percent has been exiting the US and keeping their money elsewhere. Corporations doing the same thing. Look at any old industrial area and it looks like war has erupted..
Can we afford to cut taxes and still keep up with how many police actions. Not counting our relief funds for other countries
If you followed you charts with 3X Bull ETF’S since your charts went bullish, how many extra dollars would you have made to invest in the short? There is an opportunity lost cost that needs to be taken into consideration.
“..we’re still a nation of laws….or are we?”
That maybe our problem. Too many lawyers, too many opportunities to skirt them laws.
(See five war criminals enjoying their retirement on the public’s expense, and no one complaints). Were not most of the problems we face today brought about by the establishment most people enjoy? After all, we are free to vote–or are we?
I hope your right about the top. I’ve been in a deep short position for about 5 weeks. It’s lonely up here at the top when your a bear. But with that said, with all the Shucking and Jiving the Central Banks can do… Sometimes it’s just time to pay the piper!
When you make a trade & realize you are on the wrong side of the market, it is time to exit, go long, & call it a day. Remember Peoplenomics indicators are still bullish. Any other ideas are hunches.
I doubt if this will open (for non-subscibers)…anyway…the top is in and it’s ready to roller coaster….
http://my.elliottwave.com/Assets/handlers/generic.ashx?postid=498875&rol=the&type=pdf&parentid=498875
Doesn’t look like that today. There’s no way technicals matter in the market place today. It’s all rising on unnatural influences. Something beyond the control of the fed and its big dollar’d partners will be the cause of that plunge imo.
Futures are up 60 points at 430 am!
Lol