JTDWW: Jobs, Trade,, Depression, War, Webolution

Boy, is there ever a load of crap to wrap your head around.  But, as luck would have it, this morning the thinking cap has been on as I’ve been  working on part of my next book.  Specifically, writing the chapter Toward a Computational Psychology really helps sorting through a complex world.

The reason is simple:  People tend to wake up in the morning and focus on only one, two, or maybe three things in Life.  That’s because it’s how human history has largely worked, at least to date.

The thing is, with the Internet (and social, and bots, and memes, and…and…) that has all changed.  Rather than waking up in our feudal hovels on the King’s land and some henchman pushing up to report now or die for simple work – where we can replay Gregorian Chants and Parables told at Church the previous week, we are torn in a multiplicity of directions.  We get ZZ-Top and iPhones and 50-bosses in the deal.  Sucks and it’s complex.

Fortunately, we’ve evolved a grand coping mechanism in the form of a Life Schema that keeps things in balance.  One the one side are your seven major physical systems, and in the new book we get into the “reality stacks” part; those “ways of thinking” ingrained since your childhood which continue driving you today.

But enough of the framework.  Let’s get into the headlines and I’ll show you how this framework helps.

Work!

First up we have the JOBS report just our from the Labor Department:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 213,000 in June, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care, while retail trade lost jobs.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage point to 4.0 percent in June, and the number of unemployed persons increased by 499,000 to 6.6 million. A year earlier, the jobless rate was 4.3 percent, and the number of unemployed persons was 7.0 million.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.7 percent), adult women (3.7 percent), and Asians (3.2 percent) increased in June. The jobless rate for teenagers (12.6 percent), Whites (3.5 percent), Blacks (6.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.6 percent) showed little or no change over the month.

This has a couple of additional dimensions:

One is the CES Birth-Death Model.  Think of this as the “made-up and estimated into being” jobs.    It contributed 104,000 jobs to the “gains” – or almost half.  Biggest losses were in education (-23,000) but it’s summer.  So what else  is new?

The other is the Labor Participation Rate:  It dropped 2-10ths to 62.9 from 62.7.  The markets won’t take kindly to that one.

The other useful things to consider are the population base and what portion of the workforce is actually making THINGS and what is the trend of SERVICES since we live in the biggest Shopkeeper economy in history.

The labor force increased 601,000 while the number employed went up 102,000 – which, oh, what a coincidence, is the same as the CES Birth-Death model growth.

In terms of your physical systems, if you have a job now you are fairly safe in your prospects of food, shelter/housing, transportation, and finance as you had last month.  So we can move on.

Trade

This is potentially a huge one.  President Trump, being the businessman, has been pressing for “fair trade” – which the Global Billionaire’s Club (GBC) has  skewed anti-USA in order to eventually turn up into as globalist-socialist bottom.

As Trump has turned up the trade pressure, China is slamming the USA.

Stock Market Fallout?

A late friend (Dr. Paul Erdman) wrote a number of stunningly good financial novels based on his experience as a Swiss Bank president.  He actually did some jail time because unlike the USA, when a Swiss banker finds things going wrong, they don’t become a political advisor…they go to jail.

It was in talking about such things I learned to “Think Big” in International finance.

So here’s the “financial novel” idea for the moment.

Suppose you were China.  Had lots of US assets.  Wanted to peddle some of them.  The US stock market just made a dandy little high over the Fourth and is – by some charting approaches (including my own) in a position where there could be a huge downside in the US market.

What would China do?  (Assume they are smarter than us…)

What they MIGHT want to do is short the hell out of the US market this week and then crash it over a weekend.  In other words, the least surprising thing for me right now would be to walk in Monday morning and find the Dow futures down 400-800 points on some “breaking news” over the weekend that China’s going after us big-time in trade.  All they would need to do would be put restrictions on critical goods that we don’t make here anymore and we’re hosed.

Why, the markets could collapse in a puddle – and for average investors, they would be locked out because it would be a Big Move and only the friends of China would be in on it.

Of course, it’s a calculated risk for Trump.  He knows that without evening out tariffs, the US will implode financially and that would mean the price of overseas goods would skyrocket and that would cause rampant (if not Weimar-like) inflation.  Simply put, Trump doesn’t have much in the way of policy choices, because the Globalists have been doing the slow bleed-out of America beginning with either Bill Clinton and everyone since, and maybe in the days of the Elder Bush – who we seem to recall was hip-deep ion the intelligence world which is the first operating level of the billionaires.

This is NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE (*unless you’re China, in which case you’ve already got this novel written as an investment option filed under “economic war.”) but it is just that – what kinds of forces would be unleashed in a Global Economic Reset that we might be able to win.

Otherwise, we end up a third world bitch-state of the Globalists which is where the past three or four presidents were driving, blindsided by bullshit advisors.

Thank God Trump at least can read a balance sheet and a cash-flow report!

Bet big to win big….this is poker and we’ve been the pokee’s for long enough.

The futures are only down 30, but I would expect the market to close down triple digits, but maybe that won’t come until next week.  We shall see…

On the Webolution

President Trump is offering Elizabeth Warren a million bucks is she can prove her “Native American” heritage claims.  But, we figure that money is safe…

Then  there’s legal whiz Alan Dershowitz who is finding our how violent the Digital Mob Rules is

Clintonista biggie Sidney Blumenthal may be invited to appear before the Nunes committee.

And speaking of the Circus, the Mueller fishing expedition is now gobbling up DOJ money pushing the cost of the “investigation” up around $16.7-mil so far if I’m reading the numbers here right.   For the two-bit results so far?  AYSM?

Meantime, there’s trouble in the barricades and the black leaders of the webolution are playing pile-on Nancy Pelosi for not defending (inciter) Maxine Waters.  Could happen to a…a….where were we?

Shake and Quake

Our Indonesia Bureau Chief (and former son of the Republic of Texas) Bernard Grover checking in from Jakarta with this:

Hiya chief,

Might want to keep an eye on Anak Kerakatau (aka Krakatoa).  It appears to have entered a constant low-level eruptive phase, and could expand if conditions are right.  Will update as needed.

Bernard’s comments from Indoland is over here.

Back to writing and editing.  Peoplenomics tomorrow will be really interesting if you are prepping for the Webolution.  Otherwise, do remember there’s going to be a lot more fallout to come.

Moron Mondee!    C u den.

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George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/

23 thoughts on “JTDWW: Jobs, Trade,, Depression, War, Webolution”

    • Jack,

      I just became aware of Q this week and I was intending to send George a note about this today.

      George,

      This is worth the time to look into. It’s very, very intriguing and there’s enough there to make me seriously consider that it’s real. To supplement Jack’s post, I highly recommend the following video for a quick background: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vYqqH3-xFY

      • MAJ13,
        Interesting videos. I agree with the first two thirds of the second video. Great stuff. My only red flag is that in the end of that second video, it says “Patriots of the Military and their Global partners, asked Trump to run”.

        How is that change? Wasn’t It Eisenhower who warned us of a military industrial complex? Hasn’t Trump vowed to strengthen our military? Hasn’t Trump suggested on many occasions a military option on NK, Venezuela, Iran, Syria and more? To me, it sounds as if these military and Global Partners wanted Trump so that they may control him. They knew he would be a distraction while they execute their global military initiative. Am I off base? Please educate me…because I just don’t get the rationale of Rallying around a candidate that acts like a moron…unless it’s all an act and that was the strategy all along. In which case…we are being duped…again.

  1. Didn’t President Trump say Chuck Schumer would pay the million bucks to charity. I thought Schumer’s first name was “Dick”.

    Dick must be in a giving mood. Doesn’t he want Pres Trump to nominate Pres Obama’s choice for Supreme Court to mend wounds & bring everyone together in peace. Sounds like something a “Dick” would propose.

  2. SORRY George, I just went back and clicked on Bernard’s comments from Indoland. Keep up your good work

    • NP we’ve talked about q before – won’t changes the dems and doesn’t get into the webolution aspect so it misses a bunch of moving pieces…

      • – won’t changes the dems
        maybe the PEDOs might benefit from an extended visit to Trumps newly (2016) acquired caribbean resort=gitmo
        the dems and America will benefit from the pedos being exposed (bad pun) and removed

      • Jack, Bernard’s pedo thing is a non sequitur. The FBI has investigated no less than 26,200 people for possible KP or paedo charges every year since 1997, of which I’m aware (a few years ago it was over 31k.) The vast majority are innocent of wrongdoing, but all get their own manila folder at FBIHQ. I’m totally withholding opinion on pizzagate until I see something concrete because it’s just not very far up the scale of likely events. However, about Seth Rich…

  3. Interesting reference to Dr. Erdman author of the “The Crash of 79”. Those were the days of genuine government regulation. Also, I’ll offer an opinion as a political junkie that the inclusion of Sid Vicious in Nunes’ investigation fits neatly with my own opinion that the Dirty Dossier was crafted by Sid Vicious, David Brock and John Podesta. The Brits were brought in to execute the crime given the DEMs complete cover.
    As an ex-legal alien you can accuse me of being anti-American with an overabundance of White Privilege as I might be unduly influenced by Jihadi Justin or under the influence of the euphoria of legalization of WEED due in October.

    • Ex and current legal aliens tend to have very balanced perspectives worthy of listening to. Many of my friends have such a status. I remember “The Crash of ’79”. Few people can predict both the timing and the event.

      I don’t understand the big deal about weed, since it’s useless for me. The real upside is changing the laws so that less people are criminals and there are less rules. Also the cautious hope that really valuable Schedule 1 drugs can be legalized and used/researched more easily. Unfortunately, there are still congresscritters that want to ban everything.

      I hope and pray that the Nunes committee will expose the lies that are causing such discord for the administration and that the truly corrupt will go to jail. I’m sick and tired of looking at the nonsense that the rabblerousers are allowing Muller to do on my dime.

  4. “… the least surprising thing for me right now would be to walk in Monday morning and find the Dow futures down 400-800 points on some “breaking news.”

    Funny, I could conclude a 1000 points rise Monday, and who are buying those small-caps? China, perhaps? Ought to curtail my reading experience, perhaps. ;)

    P.s. Forgoing is not investment advise!

  5. “Simply put, Trump doesn’t have much in the way of policy choices, . . .” Wow. How about not doing stupid stuff in the first place? Is that a policy choice? Ha ha. We know The Base will abide untold corruption (20 incitements and 5 guilty pleas just so far), but we’ll see how long they abide the economic pain. Best, Mike.

  6. Through prophets Q speaks not? On Discord their children are?

    Worth yuan stake sum TenCents iz.

  7. From Elliot Wave Financial Forecast, July 2018:

    DJIA countertrend rally completed 6/11 at 25,402.
    S&P 500 did the same 6/13 at 2791.
    NASDAQ completed bull market 6/20 at 7806.

    “The non confirmation between a lower high in the Dow and higher high in the NASDAQ is the same topping sequence as attended the 2000 and 2007 market peaks. The major U.S. stock indexes are now aligned with global stocks in the bearish trend”

    BTW, didn’t you notice the parting of one of the more notorious Swamp Monsters:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/06/pruitt-is-gone-but-trumps-culture-of-corruption-remains.html

  8. A lot of idiots out there, lol. China has opened the front door to shorting commodities. A lot of money to be made from the price declines in pork, soy, etc.. But no need to tell you geniuses that! lol

    • interesting thought.. yesterday.. I opened two cans of green beans.. one came from a small company in the USA that harvested and canned it right here in the USA.. then I opened one that was packed in another country and sold here.. the difference was the one from the USA had two ounces of water in it.. the one from another country had four.. the one from the USA from a small company was also less expensive by fifteen cents a can.

  9. China has opened the door to shorting U.S. commodities by placing tariffs on soy, pork … etc. The U.S. has shorted the Chinese manufacturing markets with tariffs that affect manufactured goods. The decline pricing in the respective products due to surpluses inventories will hurt both, but the lifetime of a manufactured product provides it with a greater residual value. The shorting of commodities such as pork and soy leaves no residual value. The greater overall economic loss due to rot will be felt here.

    • LOL… where do you think China gets their soy and pork.. LOL LOL

      so do they tariff it before they ship it to china or after they ship it back.. LOL LOL
      I have friend that was almost put out of business because he works with large scale grain exporters and the companies that he dealt with all were bought by.. fill in the box.. LOL the same thing with the packing houses..

  10. i agree with separating the children that are being brought over the border. then there is the thought.. are the children being harvested by the very people that are taking them for the ultra wealthy that are depraved .. we already know that children are for sale and that the deep state rules..
    that there is a level of depravity in the world that many of us will luckily never know or experience.
    why would a mother bring over a young girl.. while leaving six children at home.. does that even sound right.. which child is more important than the others.. or was she that poor and seen this as a way to get out of her poverty by finding a wealthy benefactor.. we hear all the time how that is happening in the world.. women told they were going to be nannies then abducted.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmrpfzId6i8
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETVPi__q7hk
    and that there is definitely a difference in the laws for the wealthy and the poor..

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