JP, GDP, Jobless, and Profits

Rolling out of bed at 3 AM – intent on tuning up a few website issues – I was all set to work my butt off.  Had a great article come to mind:   Soap Bubble Prosperity!

Lo and behold:  No real “work” needed today.  Because there are so many moving targets, the choice of topics is wide-open.  Except…

Storming – After

Side swipe of Laura dumped only an inch and a half of rain on us overnight.  Else?  Not so good: Hurricane Laura brings tornado threat after Louisiana landfall, Lake Charles ‘severely damaged’.

JP & The Rules of Crooked Money

Imagine yourself, for a moment, Ruler of a country.  People in the country are getting uppity.  Times have gotten hard.  10% of the people who once had jobs have now lost them.  A plague is sweeping the land.  Hysteria mounts at every turn.

The People?  They all want more money.  Silly people don’t realize that if they have more money, prices will magically go up so they have to spend it all.

Being a benevolent sort, though, you raise the Money Supply by 30%.

Sure, there are still 10% without jobs.  And yes, the plague is still making the rounds, and yes, hysteria is everywhere.  But, a great radio station exec once advised when discussing how to “position” a radio station for high listener recall (and this applies equally to politics and Fed Bosses):

“You can’t give the People what they need.  And you can’t give people what they want.  All you can do is give the People what they THINK they’re getting!

Will J. Powell – speaking in a few minutes – come out and say something like this?

“The economy was ready to tank.  The virus was cover.  The market went down 33% so we jacked up the money supply by the same amount – figuring no one will notice…”

Does Powell Have “Free Speech?”

LOL…good one!  I mean really, when you think about it, rules of decorum and such do limit people who hold off, to some degree.  OK, maybe not Sheriff Joe…but less people?  Yeah…

I don’t think Powell CAN be that forthright, because in reality, he’s stuck in the “Got to give people what they think they’re getting” trap.  Why, the merest mention of Making Up Money at those kind of levels would scare the hell out of any sane (balance-sheet minded) business person.  They have to use terms like “Increased the Fed’s lean ding capacity” which is so, so much sweeter than “We made shit up because we had no choice…”

Fortunately, sane business people are mostly off the table now.  Out to pasture (pasteurized?) Trying to live out what were supposed to be the “Golden Years.”  Which have instead turned into the “Can’t Have It” years.

  • Can’t have a 3-week cruise.  Plague Posse says so.
  • Casinos are mostly closed down.
  • Elaine would love some live music and romantic dinners out again.  But until Victoria’s secret comes out with a line of something in Tyvek….
  • Hopping in an RV is less appealing, because you don’t know which city the Marxist/communist insurgency will pop up in next…
  • And there are lots of us who still think TSA should use FRESH GLOVES on each passenger.  “Honest honey I got crabs on that last business trip because of TSA… I wasn’t fooling around…it was this skanky guy ahead of me…”  Yeah, sure, you betcha…

The Simpsons KNEW!  We’re all HOMER’s now, get it yet?  Like the Twin Towers hint wasn’t enough…keep up, pipple.

Anyway, our first point this morning is keep an eye on “Stock-index futures edge lower as investors await speech by Fed’s Powell.”  And if you watch it, see if you can see where the strings lead, off-stage…

GDP Suckage  (Gross Domestic Product)

The world hasn’t ended with  the GDP report just out.  Says so, right here…but it also screams “Not peachy!”  (Yet amazingly, after the tank, Dow Fictions Futures are only down 42 points…)

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 31.7 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 32.9 percent. With the second estimate, private inventory investment and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased less than previously estimated

Except!  (reread the Crooked Money part):  Since the heirs of Helicopter Ben have dumped 33% more money into the economy, and since GDP is reported based on what?  DOLLARS!!!!

But, nothing to see here…move along.  Just the start of the Second Depression, is all…  

This prosperity stuff has never been long-term sustainable anyway.  We need crisis after crisis because in a world without nuclear war… Where else are we going to get the demand destruction?  (Upon which we can pour an 1,800 pound concrete foundation (without rebar again) so everything will break down the road, again.  And thus allow us to make up another story later on?

A College Education in Finance

See, the ugly here is that Government doesn’t deliver SOLUTIONS.  Only Programs.  Programs cost money, expand the bureaucracy, create an excuse to tax your sorry ass into poverty and – when they need to make up money: It’s why the Golden Years are the Can’t Years now.

Trump tried to deliver a few solutions.  Nasty and Schifty blocked most – they are Program lovers.  Can Slow Joe to better?  Of course not.  He’s another Programs monster.  Trump’s learning that lesson the hard – one term – way.

Toss in that the money is made up and we just saved you from a $50-thosuand dollar shellacking in higher Ed.  Give thanks, Hallelujah!  Kiss the ground!  Now, wipe off your face, and let’s continue to ring three of this f*cking circus… Homer.

Weekly Jobs Data

While Wall Street hit fresh records (admittedly denominated in value-deficient paper), whose backs do you think they were standing on?  Hands?  Anyone????

“In the week ending August 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,006,000, a decrease of 98,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 2,000 from 1,106,000 to 1,104,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,068,000, a decrease of 107,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 500 from 1,175,750 to 1,175,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 9.9 percent for the week ending August 15, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate.

Near as we can figure it, a lot of the social violence going around is going on because rabble rousers are telling folks that America has failed to DELIVER.

In 1960, one person working at a union job – say UAW Detroit – could support a family, own a home, and drive a car.  Let’s see what the presidential scorecard looks like, shall we?

There were five democrat presidents since 1960.  And 5 and a half republicans.  No, make that 5 republicans.  (Accounting department explains:  One of the presidents was Nixon and Ford got part of his term.  Trump has not completed a term yet and God knows what he could have gotten done – except for the demoncrats making up sh*t in the House of Cards…so yeah…5 and 5…)

Between 10 terms, both parties combined managed to:

  • Shit-can making ends meet on single 40-hour a week job.
  • Made marriage due to financial pressures almost mandatory.
  • Since there were never enough good partners anyway, the whole LBGTQ deal allows partnering but we see behind the curtain the TAX PURPOSES of this move…you following this?
  • Moved the Car industry overseas…
  • …oh, we could go on all day, but how many families have two people working so they can pay (with the second income) for a car, day care, meals and sitter and tutors, and can’t raise a garden, and they need insurance on the second car and…  You know this is all a TRAP, right?  Second jobs nets a cheeseburger and fries, but you can’t sit down…

Like the old Yellow Pages ads, though, both political parties “Never stop selling...” Which is why – at the Second Circus in two weeks – we read how Mike Pence Warns Of An Unsafe America Under Biden: Takeaways From Day 3 Of The RNC.

We figure 10 data points hinting no one is safe no matter who wins.

All in the name of?

Corporate Profits!!!!

Whee!  Almost forgot to mention in that BEA GDP release:

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $226.9 billion in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of $276.2 billion in the first quarter (table 10).

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $39.5 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $42.2 billion in the first quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $170.1 billion, compared with a decrease of $190.5 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $96.2 billion, compared with a decrease of $43.5 billion. In the second quarter, receipts decreased $139.7 billion, and payments decreased $43.4 billion.

10% unemployed?   Financial profits up?  No fairness in cutthroat capitalism, though.

OK, Homer, why do you think that might be?  CEO paydays!  Bigger fool stock pricing.  Soap Bubble Prosperity, Bubba; yes sir.  Land of the free – land of the IQ-90’s.

OH “Poor Him” Dept.

AYFKM? Portland will do more to address protest violence, police accountability, business aid, mayor says…”

Gotta tell you, reading this I was moved.  Brought a tear to my eye.  OK, it was of laughter.

Do they think everyone in Portland is stupid enough to forget their Marxist tantrums atPortland Commissioners Grill FBI, DOJ Over Terrorism Task Force“?  If they can’t handle the job, Portland voters should “help” them by removing their workload.

Poor Little Globalists

While America was lulled into gender-checking – bully-bashing – and a sham impeachment on social, China got pretty much a free pass to work their Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).  This ensures China will dominate areas like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and enough of the Middle East to run railroads to Africa.  Which is  their version of American expansionism a hundred-and-fiddy-back here.

Roping satellite states in with visions of a higher standard of living, China’s on a roll.  And today, in  Foreign Policy, there’s a great whine titled “The Pakistan Army’s Belt and Road Putsch.”

‘Course, what the often erudite Foggy Bottom types STILL haven’t grasped – even with Pompeo trying to wake the dead, is “You snooze, you loose.

Part of the (this is big picture stuff, be warned…)  MAGA concept was we would – as a country – get back in the game.  Too many distractioned and a (manufactured?) disease, and a failed impeachment later we get?  Whiners.

Enough.  I’ll save the ViseGrips for tomorrow.  For now?  Chow-chasing festival is about to begin.

Write when you get rich,

30 thoughts on “JP, GDP, Jobless, and Profits”

  1. George – website alert! Using a different computer with Win 8.1 and Brave browser, the titles on your home page are not hotlinks to their respective pages! The only way I could get here was to click on the comments link and scroll up. Just FYI.

    I’m sure you have good reasons for your changes. It’s got to be challenging to make one page fit all modes of access today!

    Good luck. I’m glad to see you’re still functional after Laura.

  2. Just a quick question George. Is that 33% added to the money supply really just debt through Fed illusions. It was loaned to big players in order to goose up the markets. Should the markets tank, the assets are no longer collateral and the debts might be repudiated, thereby removing the money from the accounts, and that 33% just disappears. Isn’t that how fiat money works?
    Couldn’t we then end up with deflation as the bulk of the population still doesn’t have any money and the illusionary money game is revealed.
    I am genuinely curious as to whether this failure in the system is possible.

  3. Another rip-off.

    How is the New York MTA “under-funding” our problem? I’m in FEMA Region V, MTA is FEMA Region II.

    “Facing a staggering financial crisis and a stalemate in Washington, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority threatened on Wednesday to adopt a doomsday plan if it did not receive as much as $12 billion in federal aid, including slashing subway and bus service in New York City by 40 percent.”

    “The agency is facing a staggering $16.2 billion deficit through 2024, after the coronavirus pandemic wiped out its operating revenue — which comes from fares, tolls and subsidies — virtually overnight. ”

    $12,000,000,000 / 50,129 MTA Employees = $239,382.39 per.

    Right? And we don’t deserve another $1,200 direct deposit. People “live large” on that extra $600.00 a week.

    All the while those police chiefs accruing pensions sit idly by while the towns they are sworn to protect go up in flames.

    “The average Chief of Police salary in Minneapolis, Minnesota is $116200 as of July 27, 2020,”

    Just like the Detroit teachers sticking us with the adults they didn’t teach as children. The teacher got the pensions then moved. What do they care? They’re in Florida or Arizona.

    Turn it off, unsustainable. That’s what Greta was talking about.

    Moreover, America was clearly a Ponzi.

  4. what a laugh .. another scam night in ussa .. keep on going .. pump your gold with the bond yield falling down the grand canyon .. you are the greatest show on earth .. all pushing the same scam .. don’t even listen anymore .. have a big day .. tell buffet he is a old has been and its different now

  5. George, as of now, the site seems to be working perfectly on both win7/Pale Moon, and win8.1/Brave.


  6. “The People? They all want more money. Silly people don’t realize that if they have more money, prices will magically go up so they have to spend it all.”

    AMEN George.. but on BCN’s side if they bought BITCOIN they will retain that wealth..since they cannot spend it or use it.. its like an endless savings account and because they don’t print any more of them the ones you have as people buy them increase in value similar to stocks.. they can sit back and watch it grow without fear that it will be spent on items of daily use or living..
    to watch the numbers increase on the internet site.. the people that run BC are honorable people they have told us all that they are and the fact that we see the numbers increasing proves that they are..
    Rather than spend that money they should be buying bitcoin and let prosperity increase in their lives..

    I figured I would share some of BCN’s wisdom LOL

  7. Great minds think alike, George – He’s saying basically the same thing you are – we’ve reached the end of this economic macro-run and things aren’t going substantively higher until things get hollowed out as they did in WWII. How this is achieved this time around will be interesting at the very least.

    One thing is sure, though, dragging the World up to consumerism-based living standards will ravage this Earth and we’ll still be in the same boat headed over the falls to become one of those great, mysterious previous civilizations no one knows much about. Just hope they’ll be more honest about it all the next time around.

  8. “If they can’t handle the job, Portland voters should “help” them by removing their workload.”

    I think everyone in office should be fired.. voted out.. get new and keep renewing new people.. It costs lobbyists and special interest groups more to entice a new representative to their way than it does an old one.. make the devil pay dearly.. once the representative sells their soul to the devil he doesn’t have to pay as much.. so make him pay.. or make it illegal to buy votes and legislation.. make them pen their own legislation.. I can almost bet each bill would be a few thousand pages less and easier to understand and since they are in dc such a short time.. the bills would represent those of our founding fathers that wrote their own.. small and to the point..

    • Nobody gets un-elected in Portland. In 30 years it has not happened.

      Mayor gets caught having sex with 17 year old interns in the bathroom at city hall? Survives two recall elections.

      State blows 500 million on a broken Obamacare website, nobody gets fired. Oracle gets paid.

      State blows 100 million on a faulty engineering study to replace the I-5 bridge, nobody gets fired, and some engineering firm gets 100 million to make a bridge design that doesn’t meet the Coast Guard spec.

      And after all this, Portland will vote in radicals that make the current crop look like Ronald Reagan. Here’s the voter motivation scale: 1/3 says burn it down, 1/3 says we haven’t tried hard enough, and 1/3 pays no attention.

      • “Philistine on August 27, 2020 at 11:39
        Nobody gets un-elected in Portland. In 30 years ”

        Not just Oregon .. next time you see a politician on tv.. look for it..

        there are cobwebs under their noses and dust on the top of their heads…They have been there so long that they have cobwebs and dust all over them..they move slower than a sloth and get less done to.. you watch the congress is frantically working on in an emergency session of congress.. take a look around the room.. NOBODY IS THERE… what did they forget to call everyone.. or they just didn’t show up through lack of interest.. NOPE they only work a handful of days a year can’t expect them to give up that fact finding mission they are on.. LOL…its recess time..

  9. “Can’t have it years.”

    As you may remember, my wife and I cancelled our Jamaica vacation and ate the cost in late January this year. We consoled ourselves by looking forward to our annual trip to Cape Cod in the summer and Christmas in NYC with theatre, fine dining and shopping. We had worked hard and saved into our senior years so we could enjoy our Golden Years before bad health set in.

    Additionally, our grandson is a professional hockey player just out of college and we looked forward to travelling to NHL cities to see him play. There was a good chance he would join the new NHL Seattle team and we looked forward to visiting that beautiful city and watching him play.

    We have enjoyed fine dining in our home city here in Canada, usually before attending a 10,000 fan filled hockey stadium where we have gone for 20 years and cheered with our long time friends.

    Since the pandemic, we have hunkered down and only gone out to get groceries, fully masked of course. The restaurants have recently opened for outdoor patio dining and we were seriously thinking about giving it a try before the snow flies here in our part of Canada. Then we watched the outdoor diners in Washington, DC being screamed at to raise their fist in support of BLM. My wife decided that we should can that idea as she knew there would be serious trouble if I raised my fist.

    So here we are George. “The best laid plans of mice and men……..”

    Enjoying our retirement in the “Can’t have it years.”

    • Didn’t see the BLM types screaming at diners. That’s the beauty of hijacking equality to turn it into Marxists thuggery, though. I’m sure it’s a monetization for someone…just not the restaurant owners…

  10. On the bright side,the Delaware River cured the virus as Murphy is opening the gyms in NJ next Tuesday-as they had been in PA for 2 months.What he didn’t say was that the vaccine will be required for gym membership when it becomes available after Biden wins and Murphy goes to DC.

  11. TPTB are people we cannot even know their name, except Soros. They keep their bloodlines tight. But … they are still crazy inbred. We really don’t need to follow them anymore.

  12. Rumor is Agenda 21 will be taking effect, January 21 2021.

    Agenda 21 is what we were groomed for.

  13. It used to be that a man could work his entire life and maybe save $1 million. That $1 million, invested in relatively safe bonds at 5% netted about $50,000 in retirement income. Due to the feds’ continued insistence of their no-interest rate policy, that $1 million in now $8 million to generate the same $50,000 Retirement for me is now a pipe dream……

  14. Portland is essentially a constitutional Zombie Land, where creatures dead to the law suck the financial life out of their community instead of eating human brains. The affliction will only metastasize under liberal government leaders, with Biden and Pelosi leading the destructive hive by caving-in to the rioters’ endlessly progressive and decidedly anarchistic demands. Advice to parents of children ages 12-18 – I suggest you go to the library and take out three books: A Brave New World by Aldous Huxley; Animal Farm, by George Orwell, and Atlas Shrugged, by Ayn Rand; then have your kids read each one of them (after you ‘at least’ review teacher’s notes or Cliff Notes). Some appropriate ‘incentive’ may be necessary. Discuss each novel as they finish and encourage them to compare the social environment each author was warning us about to our current turbulent socio-political situation. Hopefully a light will come on and they will watch current affairs with a more enlightened and critical eye.

    • “The affliction will only metastasize under liberal government leaders, with Biden and Pelosi leading the destructive hive by caving-in to the rioters’ endlessly progressive and decidedly anarchistic demands. ”

      I am curious what secret messages one would hear if they played their speeches backwards..

      • OTFLMAO.. that was good one N….I totally missed it..

        “How about: “Pleased to meet you; Hope you guess my name”

        I have been avoiding all of that its just double talk and bs being spewed out by the candidates.. Only one has given a plan on how they will work on it.. the rest a lot of criticism but no actual plan or how they propose to implement it.. actually I have been trying to avoid the news for more than a year.. all the negative over and over statements just get me argumenative.. I never noticed the symbol.. LOL LOL LOL.. it makes sense though..
        then to think.. are they pushing for the anti to get into office.. he says all the right put a car in every garage and two chickens in every pot political speech…classic money makers.. then use the symbols to boot..

  15. Back in the early 90’s in the Florida panhandle town of Quincy the city manager was suing a poor old woman for burying her remaining trash. Seems she had a knack for recycling, repurposing, and composting. She buried her tin cans. Imagine the uproar when the city went looking for her trash can that didn’t exist.
    She was required to pay her refuse services bill just like everyone else! How dare she refuse to submit to the will of the city manager! She lived alone, paid her property taxes,and was quietly living her life gardening minding her own business.
    Sound familiar? After all,in order to be a law abiding citizen in a civilized society we all owe someone else a living?
    Good for her, she never relented to a presumed governmental “authority”. After all governments are the number one employer’s just about everywhere on the planet. With guaranteed wage protection, benefits-health insurance and retirement pensions, personal and vacation time, sick leave and mental health days, maternity leave and a “failsafe” system of financial security what could go wrong? All paid for by old men and old ladies, a gainfully or not so gainfully employed populace of the” status quo” ,or so we think, and the brave men and women who leave a part of themselves on a battlefield somewhere on the planet to perpetuate a myth of the justifiable authority of self determination over another’s malfeasance? Or to protect ourselves from ourselves?

    • God that sounds familiar.. a 90 year old woman had a fence put up because she was afraid of the neighbors dog.
      The neighbors complained that six of those boards were backwards in the winter time.
      The city was suing her for ten grand because she couldn’t go out to face them the opposite direction.
      I asked one on the councilmen are you shifting me.. change them yourself or forget about it. Shes 90 years old had the fence installed for her safety its winter time. GMAFB

      • Everything is a business model. I went to college to be an asset to society, not to give people the “business”. Backed off of that model, wanted to work with or alongside people in a mutually beneficial, equitable manner. Everything is proprietary under the technocratical model governed by the LAW. Time to
        “Lawyer Up” folks. Consent of the governed or is it lobby by consent. Everything is for sale
        even the fairness doctrine. We live in the land of Unjust Enrichment and Command

  16. If corona virus is space based drifting in due to lack galactic protection by stars from the core or comet carried then masks stay.

    Same applies to comet iron based heating cooling of sun and galactic based magnetic cells mirador minimums and ice age. Ice age now website

    Most communists want it all. Can’t be bought. Trust no one with capability to harm. No good person exists. Darwin survival fittest.

    So. Bad time had by all. We can’t get along

  17. I totally concur with your confusion over the up & down numbers, George…

    Probability of recession peaks in Aug 2020 (based on inverted yield curve)

    Great study on how the Dow, 3 yrs prior to the election calls the winner (except for G Bush & J Adams):

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