The first headline to pay attention to is the one about how Auto Sales are looking like they’ll hit $47 billion for September. This is insane, but it’s how the planet rolls.
With this in mind, let’s see how we are doing on Ure’s replay of 1929, shall we?
The proposed market top next spring has drifted aroundf a bit – and we’ll get into the drift and more updated data Wednesday for subscribers.
One hint, however, if this IS a parallel to the 2008 period, then the markets should, as an aggregate, decline a bit this week. But replays are not perfect because of policy which is different at the granular level between then and now.
The futures have a bit of negative bias this morning and yes, I’m still patiently short.
How Is Hoover Doing?
By Hoover, I mean Donald Trump, of course. Hoover ran against NY Governor Al Smith – and won. Maybe Trump can beat a former NY Senator…but we’ll see. Homeland is still ‘influencing” security. But so far “Official: No ‘manipulation’ of data seen in election hacks.”
Regardless of the outcome in November, someone’s going to try and use this as a recount rationale. Wait for it….
This Taxing Election
In the current case, we have a business-friendly candidate being outed (and quite possibly illegally) by the New York Times as having paid no income tax in a recent year.
Just to keep things amusing, though, “those in glass houses” shouldn’t throw stones came along as it was reported that the accusatory NY Times paid no income tax in 2014 while having money for shareholders.
My, ain’t it funny how this works?
I have to admit that I was a little surprised at the recent anti-Trump USA Today article. They essentially undorsed him.
Then I started reading about Gannet Corp’s taxes in their latest annual report (2015) here.
This part struck me as very interesting (from Page 27):
“There could be significant liability if the distribution were determined to be a taxable transaction.
In connection with the distribution, our former parent received an opinion from outside tax counsel to the effect that the requirements for tax-free treatment under Section 355 of the Code would be satisfied. The opinion relied on certain facts, assumptions, representations and undertakings from our former parent and us regarding the past and future conduct of the companies’ respective businesses and other matters. If any of these facts, assumptions, representations or undertakings were incorrect or not satisfied, we and our stockholders may not be able to rely on the opinion of tax counsel and could be subject to significant tax liabilities. Notwithstanding the opinion of tax counsel, the IRS could determine upon audit that the separation is taxable if it determines that any of these facts, assumptions, representations or undertakings were incorrect or violated or if it disagrees with the conclusions in the opinion, or for other reasons, including as a result of certain significant changes in the share ownership of our company or our former parent after the separation. If the separation were determined to be taxable for U.S. federal income tax purposes, our former parent and its stockholders that are subject to U.S. federal income tax could incur significant U.S. federal income tax liabilities, and we could incur significant liabilities.”
What this suggests (to a dim-witted nutjob in the woods of East Texas) is that whoever wins the White House might be in a position to nudge IRS decisions this way, or that.
It is axiomatic that all big companies have tax issues at some level, or other Some small, some big. Most are not inspected closely by all but serious investors.
Not saying they would, but IRS has already “touched the political football” and I wonder about taxes and such of other major news publishers… worth some study, I suppose.
We may be seeing a bit of “leading edge” on that as Kathleen Willey accused Hillary Clinton as aiding former president Bill (Dick) Clinton of facilitating his womanizing.
I can hardly wait for people who called “Hillary to be gone before the end of September” will claim to be right on the call, lol. We’ll stick with the data and calendar, thanks.
Know Any Really Rich Folks?
I happen to know a few people who are well into the 1% range.
Of these people, about one third made their money in real estate, particularly multifamily real estate. Generally, they would start off with modest homes in modest neighborhoods, and then they would buy homes, rent them out for a while and then sell them at higher prices.
The others made their money “rolling up” multiple related companies under a parent company offering good management and centralized accounting and corporate sales functions.
Last, but not least, there are the high tech/start up entrepreneurs.
There are still lots of ways to make it in America, but real estate, especially back when interest rates were higher, was an easy road to riches. And yes, some of the people on that road paid no taxes for years at a stretch. Such are the laws of depreciation and business expense.
Futuring Past Monday
The earthquake watch for California continues.
The jobs report will be out Friday.
Marketing Marketing Insanity
A few stories that caught our cynical eye this morning.
Facebook goes after its next billion users with Messenger Lite. I don’t look for this to work because of an earlier invention that doesn’t require you to txt while driving. It’s called the Telephone.
Bonus: No fake friends. If I call someone, they’re real.
Here, have another cynicism pill…
Speaking of press distractions, you saw where “Lindsay Lohan says she cut off “half [her] finger” in boating accident.” OMH! Bet the whole fingernail is hurt….
Yes, America – inflating the largest economic bubble in its history – is completely glued, as we mentioned in a Coping Section report last week, to tiny screens to tickle our retinas. These are detached from reasoning powers.
Meantime, the breakaway culture of thinkers sit back aghast at the antics of these chimps that press lights. Still, downright interesting to watch these limbic losers.
A short column this morning as there is much that needs doing around the ranch…
Nuclear War Watch
And this from mil affairs expert warhammer:
This bears watching – multiple fuses are being lit in this region:
If this were to turn into a proxy war, then China is definitely sponsoring Pakistan – they’ve been close since Pakistan’s independence and both are not at all fond of India.
India has chosen a foreign policy of non-alignment. It has several strategic allies, to include the EU, Russia, the U.S., Israel and Japan. But there are no formal military agreements with any of the aforementioned.
Since both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers, if this border skirmish shows signs of getting serious, look for some strategic dominoes to start lining up to prevent the risk of escalation.
BTW – it is widely assumed that plans are in place to neutralize Pakistani nukes if a more radical government seizes power there. One could assume the same would be true for India.
Flash goggles, anyone?