Investing in World War III

If you’re like me (a child of the “duck and cover” era), it has probably occurred to you that we shouldn’t be living in a world full of nuclear weapons (and people willing to pull the trigger).

But facts are facts and some of these include a world full of people, a world which is running short of new technologies and “must have products” to the point that there is seemingly little to spur further growth.  And, besides, we spent on this money on arming ourselves to the teeth, and so what good are the arms if we don’t use them once in a while?

I thought you’d enjoy a quick look at how the map of the boundary world between the US/West/Europe and Russia looks today because it illustrates the military and economic standoff that is evolving even as the G-7 (minus the naughty Putsy) sits down to work out its economic strategy.  Behold!  Ure’s view of things!

One of the reasons to invest in a copy of Microsoft Streets and Trips 2013 is so that you can sit in the comfort of your (pre-WW II) home and take a look at how the battle lines are being drawn.

“The Front” as I’ve drawn it above is a dashed line that represents the boundary between spheres of influence.  At the top left, we see the blue (EU/NATO/US) pushing in on Ukraine, trying to solidify the independence of the country to become another pawn in the EU’s chess game to expand all the way across Russia.

Russian interests (black arrows) are not about to sit back and let Europe get away with European expansionist efforts that failed before under Napoleon, the Kaiser, Hitler, and now, well, we’ll see how the EU does.  For now, the dashed line in Ukraine has moved decidedly west as Ukraine has pulled all of its forces out of Crimea and those that remain have thrown in with Moscow.

Dropping down into Turkey, the reason for the Russian strategic interest here is obvious as hell:  They have control of the northern part of the Black Sea, but the choke point in terms of naval forces and trade is Turkey.

Which is why what is going on?

A look at Turkey headlines this morning shows that along that dashed border between Russia and West, there was the shoot-down this weekend of a Syrian jet which supposedly had violated Turkish airspace.  The West is doing everything it can to overthrow Syrian plans for elections, which seem bound to occur anyway.

And that gets us down to the lower left/center of our map where you can see the hard red line which is what keeps the Russians from glomming onto the Iraqi countryside, along with all its oil and not only that, I hope you notice how that war conveniently set up a buffer between Russia and the Saudis, which might go a long ways toward explaining 9/11 but that’s a whole other discussion that becomes much more speculative.  Except, we note in passing, that there was a strategic reason we “invaded the wrong country.”

And off on the lower right, we see how the West/US has grayed out the Afghanistan area, because it’s a very difficult area to supply, being surrounded by less-than-friendlies.

Thoughtful analysts are, therefore, looking at Turkey and wondering if the West will be able to “pull it out” in the final half of this game.  The report this morning in the Jerusalem Post offers “Analysis:  Turkey as a model of Muslim democracy in shambles” and that is an understatement.

The whole notion of Democracy in Shambles is echoing elsewhere in the region, as the last remnants of the Project for a New American Century (and supporters of that theory still in our US State Department) not only blew it by pressing wrongly with the neo-Nazis/extremists ion Ukraine, but seem likely to do so again in Turkey.

The whole “control Twitter” was (Turkey this weekend accused Twitter of defamation) seemed for a while like Twitter might be turned on, but I’ll believe it when I see it.  The Turks are talking about “ripping out the roots” of social networks, and that’s because they saw how the socials were used as revolution promotion media in Ukraine.  Duh!

And elsewhere, how has the Project for a New American Century scorecard worked out?  It depends who you ask.  The government of Egypt is on financial life support while this morning sentencing 529 members of the Muslim Brotherhood to death.

The US/West has some hard lines on maps – and the Suez Canal is one of them, while Turkey’s Strait of Dardanelles is the other.  

The Dardanelles us why the next few dance steps in Waltzing to WW III should involve Turkey.  And Wikipedia provides this bit of history that should help put this assertion into perspective:

In July, 1946, the Soviet Union sent a note to Turkey proposing a new régime for the Dardanelles that would have excluded all nations except the Black Sea powers. The second proposal was that the straits should be put under joint Turkish-Soviet defence. This meant that Turkey, the Soviet Union, Bulgaria and Romania would be the only states having access to the Black Sea through the Dardanelles. The Turkish government however, under pressure from the United States, rejected these proposals.[5]

That’s because the US Navy ships now in the Black Sea off what used to be Ukraine got there through the Dardanelles.  So this morning’s key investment idea is simple:  short Turkey.

When reports come out like “Obama aid: ‘Possible’ Russia could enter Ukraine” come out, I wonder if I’m the only guy who looks at maps anymore.  There’s a longer game in play. 

Western Ukraine is a puttTurkey is the drive, to put it into terms His Taxellency’s  staff might comprehend.

In the meantime, we’ll see what comes out of this morning’s data runs as a follow up to Grady’s posting yesterday  “Brinkmanship? or is it rhetoric?  Disease, hard times, bad air, and not much water.”  (Sunday’s report was one of his happier ones, of late. After reading it, I had this distinct “Can we just get on to Monday, now and see how it all squishes out this week?” feeling…

Screaming Rally Looms?

Tell me it ain’t so!  Meantime, a growing number of indicators are hinting that my gut will be wrong (again) and my Trading Model will prevail as indicators are lining up for a Dow run at new all-time highs.

A couple of reasons might include the Baltic Dry Index, which while cratering down to the 1,l00 range a couple of months back has zipped back up to the 1,600 area.

Another is the massive rally in Japan overnight:  China was up almost 2% and Japan up almost 1.8%.  Bloomberg points out it was the best two-day gain since November, so I will likely click out of my “worrywart short” at this morning’s open.  Then sit back and see if a rally appears.

The big financial data this week will be tomorrow’s housing report, so we will do our usual update when the press release on that comes out about 8:15 central time.

Global Coastaling

There was a lot of talk around the internet, at one point, of a global coastal event which, so far as it noticeable to most folks, hasn’t happened.  Instead, there is a continuing background discussion about just how fast ocean levels are changing.

The answer – like it or not – is they aren’t changing very fast.

To be sure, the rate of increase has been on the order of 3- millimeters per year.  And even  that rate is slowing, says a report in Nature’s Climate Change Letter.

Reports about the report (bear with me) say that the rise more recently is down in the 2.4 MM per year range.

And there’s a report out this morning about the report out this weekend (lots of reporting on reports going around!) that this may be due to el Nino/ la Nina kinds of shifts.

Still, the mass hysteria over climate change is on, no doubt because it will give the New World Order promotes a reason to put a global tax on everyone on the planet in order to fund global government…which will “save us from climate”: and is then certain to further encroach of national sovereignty until One World Government is a fact.

In the meantime, do try to remember that back in the Ice Age *(and earlier) sea levels were more than 300 feet lower.  That happens when you have huge amounts of snow piled up, high on land.  Over millennia, the stuff melts and flow down hill and refills the what?

Since I look at long-term economics, I also tend to think in much longer time scales that most people.  As a result, a 100,000 year view  of things might chill global warming.  Especially when you read thinks like the “Sphinx water erosion hypothesis” and other literature on long-term historical data.

For now, if you’re looking for a global coastal event, try Noah (opening this weekend) for your short-term fears.  And for a little longer take on it, please consider the idea that just as markets have ultra-long 54 and 73-year cycles, so, too, global climate change likely has one as well.  And most of the serious sciencely dudes admit there’s been more than one ice age.

The Utah State Geology site over here lists multiple such events over the past 2.4 billion years.  No mention of how many of these featured global governments or carbon-trading scams.

Not to worry, though; It’s not like this is the first time “officialdom” has capitalized on a trend for profit.

How NOT to Make Friends

Malaysia bungling search for Flight 370, U.S. lawmakers say…”:

While China has been releasing gobs of satellite data, we can’t help but notice the lack of US imagery being let out, which causes me to wonder who is bungling what?

Oh…and for the record, I mean if you believe in that olde-school Log from my eye before the sliver from yours stuff:  If we’re going to get in a pissing match about bungling things, U.S. lawmakers might want to start reading shit they vote on and just STFU…know what I mean?

There’s a reason congress sucks in polls, yeah?

The “Daily Kardashian”

Can be found here…  I’ll be so disappointed if you click that link.  This was a pop IQ test.

The Daily Bomber

Can be found in…

OK, then, enough rational thinking for one morning.  Go on…go back and hit that Kardashian link, lol…put’cher brain back on ice till tomorrow morning…