World’s a crazy place these days. Young people, who should be having the time of their lives, forming families, making professional investments in themselves, and achieving high states of personal excellence have mainly, as a group, downgraded themselves to phone-zombies. Shame, that. (Ref URL “Smartphone Addiction Creates Imbalance in Brain .”)
To make “grown-up” finance accessible to the PZ’s, I thought it would be useful to discuss three simple casino-like bets.
The first involves Bitcoin which, when we penciled out the math, went from an average high yesterday in the $11,230 US Dollar range, down to the $9,700 level overnight…and it’s back bouncing when I looked as press time. We need to be thinking about volatility.
Volatility is a good thing. Vehicle of price discovery, and all that. The ease of exploding is a fine thing for gasoline, but not necessarily for personal finance when Ure older. The older you get, the more conservative your decision-making becomes.
There are 16.523 million Bitcoins out there. At its extreme, the high-low range was a $1,530 spread in the past day. That’s a whopping 13.6 percent change in value in less than 24-hours.
If you want to speculate on somewhere where $25.28 billion dollars blinks in and out of existence like this, have fun.
This is not to say the high is in. Far from it: As the body-count of phone zombies hints to the statistically-trained, there is a nearly inexhaustible abundance of Greater Fools in the world…a fact that explains so much today.
We view a bet on continued volatility in Bitcoins as a nearly sure-thing, but we’d also point out that similar volatility in the Dow translates to daily index moves of 3-thousand points and more.
That’s just not our kind of game, thank you. There’s the gasoline, and you have the matches…
While we’ll pass on Bet #1 this morning, we’re pleased onoe of our subscribers observed – in reaction to the Wednesday report (outlandish as it may have sounded) as been seen by others. Read “The Globalist One World Currency Will Look A Lot Like Bitcoin” to keep up with class.
Wave Four To Come, Then Mega-Five
With the crypto-bet a pass for us, there are increasing signs that the U.S. Fed will be raising rates. Perhaps sooner than later, too.
Some readings on point: Recap: Yellen seals deal on December hike, urges Congress not to ignore rising tide of US debt.
The problem is that a December Fed Hike is not priced into the market yet, or so it appears when you flip over to the 10-year Treasury which is still hovering around 2.38%.
With the Fed rate hike in the works, there may be a pause in the Trump Bump as the markets set up for one more run that could propel things higher into late summer of 2018. While we’ll be watching our proprietary indicators over on the Peoplenomcs.com side of the house, there is some evidence that change is afoot. It’s shown – if you squint – in the Velocity of Money at M-2 chart, after updating for the GDP out yesterday:
Is velocity about to head back up?
This means our second bet is on a kind of big 1-2 up-thrust for the economy: A modest/bounded decline when the Fed rate hike reality sinks in (and what if they do a half, not just a quarter?). That’d be the downside Wave 4 using Elliott wave theory.
But hold on at those lows for a possible ride of a lifetime as all that money that’s just been sitting in dark pools on the sidelines looks for a way to come back into circulation. That’s ought to result in a screaming Wave 5 up-thrust that would push oil back to the mid 70’s and higher, and would finally press gold past the $2,000 level. I like $2,300.
Of course when that’s all done, then we have the problems of collapse, but as the song says (crank your speakers), let the good times roll.
Third Bet? Climate Change Exposed
This is a no-brainer.
The Sun is in a cooling period. That much is evident from the Solar Cycle Progression work by NOAA over here.
The news headlines are now starting to swing to support the notion that paid-off science will report any conclusion you want to fund.
Reality, though, being an unfunded arbiter of media bullshit, has presented contrary facts. Like this little gem: Parts of Siberia are Colder Than Minus 60 Degrees Fahrenheit, and It’s Only November.
If you have the patience to sit through the infantile video, they eventually get around to the monetization angle and that means monetizing carbon. I won’t remind you about how Carbon is the Next Big Mania.
But, for those dim-witted enough not to see it, when an economy runs out of organic growth opportunities, the hidden continuity of government types roll-out our serial “war substitutes.”
It’s axiomatic that war’s major functions include killing people, breaking things, destroying infrastructure, reordering the economy, and whipping up ideological tools (like “patriotism”) in order to manipulate and control vast populations. Toss in social-media and you’ve got a set of brain-washing tools the Former Soviet Union (Lubyanka prison, remember that?) would envy.
Our “serial manipulations” (when the tinfoil hat is on) include 9/11, the Housing bubble, the Bitcoin Bubble, and soon-to-come, the Carbon Bubble.
Here’s how it’s going to play out – so you can watch as it comes around:
- We expect Barack Obama (regardless of Logan Act restrictions*) will go off lobbying world leaders to appoint him head of some non-elected international governing group. See Obama to meet with Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi on visits to China, India and France. He’s not just going to have a Big Mac with ’em. China’s Xi praises Obama’s efforts to build US-China ties.
- Remember, Obama was the Illinois state senator that helped to fund the first carbon exchange. As Fox reported way back in 2009: Obama Years Ago Helped Fund Carbon Program He Is Now Pushing Through Congress. Climate’s been great for Al Gore, right?
- And now, we read this: “Crying Wolf (Again): UN Chief Warns Global Warming Is “The Defining Threat Of Our Time“
- * The Logan Act (1 Stat. 613, 18 U.S.C. § 953, enacted January 30, 1799 (1799-01-30)) is a United States federal law that details the fine and/or imprisonment of unauthorized citizens who negotiate with foreign governments having a dispute with the United States.
Since the rest of the world looks to suck money out of the US economy in order to fix their climate messes (we paid-as-we-went for ours early by funding EPA, etc.) we don’t think it’s a stretch that Obama will be promoting himself into more “public service” fighting “climate change.” Looks like high profile and easy money.
Should be clear what a fine bubble-replacement this is, and like healthcare expense, it’s an easily-modulated money-pit to give 7-billion people something to do instead of replacing crooked, non-elective governments. No sound money, because, well, that might constrain unlimited population growth.
So our third bet of the morning is a small one that the UN will appoint a global climate tsar and care to guess who that might be? It would be so graceful not to mention predictable…
While these “harder realities” are coming (along with robots to take over most jobs), the role of the sycophant press is to keep you endlessly distracted with “emotionally hot stories” so you won’t think deeply.
Today’s assorted enewzy’s:
Just our from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (Hit the hookah first on this one, ‘k?)
Personal income increased $65.1 billion (0.4 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $66.1 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $34.4 billion (0.3 percent).
Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in October and Real PCE increased 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.
And here’s where you really want to be bong-jovial:
Personal saving was $457.3 billion in October and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 3.2 percent.
They just light up my life with numbers like this.
Now, Let’s Talk REAL Money
From our oak-leaf cluster .mil affairs consultant: HOW much in military sales? $42 billion?
As you frequently illustrate – “everything is a business model.’ So it is with national defense, and not just here in ‘Merika.’
‘Follow the money’ – defense contractor money, that is – and we see that foreign military sales are bringing in some serious change to US defense manufacturing companies.
I’m a retired military guy and I get the need for national defense, not just at home but for every nation. A strong defense makes one’s competitors think hard about making an aggressive and armed move.
I’ve not yet seen analysis of recent spending trends by U.S. allies, however, there is usually a cause and effect playing out with such things. Which could well mean if the U.S. is holding a military version of a Black Friday sale, one can bet Russia and China are similarly amping-up their foreign military sales of offset American influences in areas of interest.
One certain message we can pull from this is that the world is not yet prepared to go all kumbaya. For various reasons, some nations still feel a definite need to improve their own national security. Each nation has its own rationale for doing so and the trend may have more than a few common denominators. I’m not privy to such matters, although I have my own hunches on this subject. Perhaps you would like to hazard a guess?
Honestly, we should be able to see international arms sales stabilize at near present levels. It’s simply too easy to ramp up another military/war substitute for the moment.
Sure, tough on the “disposable people” in the conflict zones, but that’s all part of the grand Kabuki of it all. Talk peace, sell weapons, cut down trees to make climate brochures – all part of the global yin and yank. We’ll move next to mandatory behavior and thought control on things like healthcare and climate and ramp up global population even more.
When we get to the 10-billion, or so, level globally, that ought to meet all the expectations for a nice End Times blow-up…and that’ll be all she wrote.
Obama for Global Climate Czar! Let’s get this chicken coop filled so there’s more to sacrifice when time comes!
Peachy, huh? But that’s what’s working, you see…
Dow futures are up another hundred! Yee-haw! Let’s paper-over evil and extra do-overs for all. We’re all victims, but especially the victims of our mass victimhood!
Who needs accountability, anyway?