Intelligent Speculations: Three-Bet Thursday

World’s a crazy place these days.  Young people, who should be having the time of their lives, forming families, making professional investments in themselves, and achieving high states of personal excellence have mainly, as a group, downgraded themselves to phone-zombies.  Shame, that.  (Ref URL “Smartphone Addiction Creates Imbalance in Brain .”)

To make “grown-up” finance accessible to the PZ’s, I thought it would be useful to discuss three simple casino-like bets.

The first involves Bitcoin which, when we penciled out the math, went from an  average high yesterday in the $11,230 US Dollar range, down to the $9,700 level overnight…and it’s back bouncing when I looked as press time.  We need to be thinking about volatility.

(Continues below)

 

Volatility is a good thing.  Vehicle of price discovery, and all that.  The ease of exploding is a fine thing for gasoline, but not necessarily for personal finance when Ure older.  The older you get, the more conservative your decision-making becomes.

There are 16.523 million Bitcoins out there.  At its extreme, the high-low range was a $1,530 spread in the past day.  That’s a whopping 13.6 percent change in value in less than 24-hours.

If you want to speculate on somewhere where $25.28 billion dollars blinks in and out of existence like this, have fun.

This is not to say the high is in.  Far from it:  As the body-count of phone zombies hints to the statistically-trained, there is a nearly inexhaustible abundance of Greater Fools in the world…a fact that explains so much today.

We view a bet on continued volatility in Bitcoins as a nearly sure-thing, but we’d also point out that similar volatility in the Dow translates to daily index moves of 3-thousand points and more.

That’s just not our kind of game, thank you.  There’s the gasoline, and you have the matches…

While we’ll pass on Bet #1 this morning, we’re pleased onoe of our subscribers observed – in reaction to the Wednesday report (outlandish as it may have sounded) as been seen by others.  Read “The Globalist One World Currency Will Look A Lot Like Bitcoin” to keep up with class.

Wave Four To Come, Then Mega-Five

With the crypto-bet a pass for us, there are increasing signs that the U.S. Fed will be raising rates.  Perhaps sooner than later, too.

Some readings on point: Recap: Yellen seals deal on December hike, urges Congress not to ignore rising tide of US debt.

The problem is that a December Fed Hike is not priced into the market yet, or so it appears when you flip over to the 10-year Treasury which is still hovering around 2.38%.

With the Fed rate hike in the works, there may be a pause in the Trump Bump as the markets set up for one more run that could propel things higher into late summer of 2018.  While we’ll be watching our proprietary indicators over on the Peoplenomcs.com side of the house, there is some evidence that change is afoot.  It’s shown – if you squint – in the Velocity of Money at M-2 chart, after updating for the GDP out yesterday:

Is velocity about to head back up?

This means our second bet is on a kind of big 1-2 up-thrust for the economy:  A modest/bounded decline when the Fed rate hike reality sinks in (and what if they do a half, not just a quarter?).  That’d be the downside Wave 4 using Elliott wave theory.

But hold on at those lows for a possible ride of a lifetime as all that money that’s just been sitting in dark pools on the sidelines looks for a way to come back into circulation.  That’s ought to result in a screaming Wave 5 up-thrust that would push oil back to the mid 70’s and higher, and would finally press gold past the $2,000 level.  I like $2,300.

Of course when that’s all done, then we have the problems of collapse, but as the song says (crank your speakers), let the good times roll.

Third Bet?  Climate Change Exposed

This is a no-brainer.

The Sun is in a cooling period.  That much is evident from the Solar Cycle Progression work by NOAA over here.

The news headlines are now starting to swing to support the notion that paid-off science will report any conclusion you want to fund.

Reality, though, being an unfunded arbiter of media bullshit, has presented contrary facts.  Like this little gem: Parts of Siberia are Colder Than Minus 60 Degrees Fahrenheit, and It’s Only November.

Reality aside, we note that Moody’s – the investment rating outfit – is warning cities and states to do something about climate change risk or face downgrades.

If you have the patience to sit through the infantile video, they eventually get around to the monetization angle and that means monetizing carbon.  I won’t remind you about how Carbon is the Next Big Mania.

But, for those dim-witted enough not to see it, when an economy runs out of organic growth opportunities, the hidden continuity of government types roll-out our serial “war substitutes.”

It’s axiomatic that war’s major functions include killing people, breaking things, destroying infrastructure, reordering the economy, and whipping up ideological tools (like “patriotism”) in order to manipulate and control vast populations.  Toss in social-media and you’ve got a set of brain-washing tools the Former Soviet Union (Lubyanka prison, remember that?) would envy.

Our “serial manipulations” (when the tinfoil hat is on) include 9/11, the Housing bubble, the Bitcoin Bubble, and soon-to-come, the Carbon Bubble.

Here’s how it’s going to play out – so you can watch as it comes around:

  1. We expect Barack Obama (regardless of Logan Act restrictions*) will go off lobbying world leaders to appoint him head of some non-elected international governing group.  See Obama to meet with Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi on visits to China, India and France.  He’s not just going to have a Big Mac with ’em.  China’s Xi praises Obama’s efforts to build US-China ties.
  2. Remember, Obama was the Illinois state senator that helped to fund the first carbon exchange.  As Fox reported way back in 2009: Obama Years Ago Helped Fund Carbon Program He Is Now Pushing Through Congress.  Climate’s been great for Al Gore, right?
  3. And now, we read this: “Crying Wolf (Again): UN Chief Warns Global Warming Is “The Defining Threat Of Our Time
  • * The Logan Act (1 Stat. 613, 18 U.S.C. § 953, enacted January 30, 1799 (1799-01-30)) is a United States federal law that details the fine and/or imprisonment of unauthorized citizens who negotiate with foreign governments having a dispute with the United States.

Since the rest of the world looks to suck money out of the US economy in order to fix their climate messes (we paid-as-we-went for ours early by funding EPA, etc.) we don’t think it’s a stretch that Obama will be promoting himself into more “public service” fighting “climate change.”  Looks like high profile and easy money.

Should be clear what a fine bubble-replacement this is, and like healthcare expense, it’s an easily-modulated money-pit to give 7-billion people something to do instead of replacing crooked, non-elective governments.  No sound money, because, well, that might constrain unlimited population growth.

So our third bet of the morning is a small one that the UN will appoint a global climate tsar and care to guess who that might be? It would be so graceful not to mention predictable

Uselessly Distracted

While these “harder realities” are coming (along with robots to take over most jobs), the role of the sycophant press is to keep you endlessly distracted with “emotionally hot stories” so you won’t think deeply.

Today’s assorted enewzy’s:

‘It’s Been Humbling.’ Matt Lauer Breaks Silence After Sexual Misconduct Allegations

Trump slams ‘failing’ New York Times for acting as a ‘lobbyist’ for Democrats on Senate GOP tax plan.

Personal Incomes

Just our from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  (Hit the hookah first on this one, ‘k?)

Personal income increased $65.1 billion (0.4 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $66.1 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $34.4 billion (0.3 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in October and Real PCE increased 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

And here’s where you really want to be bong-jovial:

Personal saving was $457.3 billion in October and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable  personal income, was 3.2 percent.

They just light up my life with numbers like this.

Now, Let’s Talk REAL Money

From our oak-leaf cluster .mil affairs consultant:  HOW much in military sales? $42 billion?

As you frequently illustrate – “everything is a business model.’ So it is with national defense, and not just here in ‘Merika.’

Link to source

‘Follow the money’ – defense contractor money, that is – and we see that foreign military sales are bringing in some serious change to US defense manufacturing companies.

I’m a retired military guy and I get the need for national defense, not just at home but for every nation. A strong defense makes one’s competitors think hard about making an aggressive and armed move.

I’ve not yet seen analysis of recent spending trends by U.S. allies, however, there is usually a cause and effect playing out with such things. Which could well mean if the U.S. is holding a military version of a Black Friday sale, one can bet Russia and China are similarly amping-up their foreign military sales of offset American influences in areas of interest.

One certain message we can pull from this is that the world is not yet prepared to go all kumbaya. For various reasons, some nations still feel a definite need to improve their own national security. Each nation has its own rationale for doing so and the trend may have more than a few common denominators. I’m not privy to such matters, although I have my own hunches on this subject. Perhaps you would like to hazard a guess?

Honestly, we should be able to see international arms sales stabilize at near present levels.  It’s simply too easy to ramp up another military/war substitute for the moment.

Sure, tough on the “disposable people” in the conflict zones, but that’s all part of the grand Kabuki of it all.  Talk peace, sell weapons, cut down trees to make climate brochures – all part of the global yin and yank.  We’ll move next to mandatory behavior and thought control on things like healthcare and climate and ramp up global population even more.

When we get to the 10-billion, or so, level globally, that ought to meet all the expectations for a nice End Times blow-up…and that’ll be all she wrote.

Obama for Global Climate Czar!  Let’s get this chicken coop filled so there’s more to sacrifice when time comes!

Peachy, huh?   But that’s what’s working, you see…

Dow futures are up another hundred!  Yee-haw!  Let’s paper-over evil and extra do-overs for all.  We’re all victims, but especially the victims of our mass victimhood!

Who needs accountability, anyway?

FMTT


Comments

Intelligent Speculations: Three-Bet Thursday — 18 Comments

  1. That 11,000ish high on Bitcoin looks like a iii high, then that quick move down was iv. Now in v up possibly to 12,000 or somewhere higher. BUT, that would COMPLETE a rally that started in 2013 — So, v of 5 of Primary 5 of CYCLE ONE top would be IN at that point. CYCLE TWO down could get ugly… on stocks: I am looking at a pull-back here perhaps taking a crash form. Five waves in on the DJIA since the smallish correction back in August. From the election, Wave 1, 2, and now 3 is in the books. … DJIA and NYSE chart looking like the Nasdaq 100 chart back in 1987. Bradley Model Siderograph turn dates coming on December 3rd and the 6th. We will find out what happens!!!

    da bear

  2. I am confused as hell..
    I look up urban survival on the computer.. And see a post I wrote on the phone before its been approved.
    The phone doesn’t go through the home internet and there’s no connection between them. No WiFi..if I type a comment on the phone twenty miles away it shows up on the home computer screen..
    How does that work.. And if it’s all comments then why aren’t the others shown

      • No.. My comments are showing just they jump servers. The phone is not connected in any way to the home computer and I can write a comment twenty or thirty miles away log in and pull up urban survival on the home computer and have it displayed before its been added to the comment section.
        My question is how..

      • What I have seen is that the number count of the comments is messed up when you attempt to look at more than just the current story. And sometimes the story that you have just read isn’t listed. It seems to be just there, but you have to be digging around to find it.

        Hacked? I don’t know . . .

  3. What FOX/FAUX news isn’t telling you:

    You’ll have to pay for those TAX CUTS – why ignore/keep it a secret?

    Medicare and Military Retirement Fund & other programs could face $150 billion cuts EVERY year for the next 10 yrs..

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/11/14/how-the-gop-tax-plan-could-leave-the-party-in-need-of-democrats-help/?utm_term=.bf1664fc4352

    http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-gop-social-security-20171130-story.html

  4. Consider that all those addicted to electronics may not be addicted, but simply see no more validity in the current paradigm than the story of Santa Claus foisted on them earlier. The may simply be the folks who can interact with AI in a way that is incomprehensible to the rest of us. I think the term is, they came in “cable ready!”

  5. Big deal, G is spewing Fake News on Bitcoin.Your power consumption B.S. was not based on logic and or reason, just parroting sensationalist “story”. If critical thinking were applied to idea of mass power consumption from hashing transactions, you would soon realize the gross errors of your post. Calculate energy used daily in USA on idle electronic devices, put still powered, devices in standby mode..Got your head around that figure?
    Weekly chart Bitcoin shows a Shooting Star Reversal Candle -very dangerous, even with currant upward bias in Bitcoin.Support at $7600, better support at $5000, real strong support at $1300 ! #BTFD! I’ll take the 1st bet on Bitcoin coming out of the Dip.P.S. Ripple coin is the banksta coin, currently testing at FED.

  6. Not get the visceral hostility to climate change stuff. If 97 of 100 reputable engineers said the dam was going to break, would build a house under it? If 97 out of 100 19th century Darwin guys said don’t dump raw sewage in the street, would one cry hoax? Even if the definitive proof not 100% in, what do you do in the meantime? Just so weird to me that a simple issue has turned into such an emotional throw-down. Mike.

  7. The biggest brains and the best number crunchers in the world are making preparations for rising oceans. Insurance companies are setting reserves. The Pentagon is lifting bases and moorings. Even the publicly denying extraction industry is making private preps.

    Not that it matters:
    https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/02/pentagon-fights-climate-change-sea-level-rise-defense-department-military/

    http://graphics.latimes.com/oil-operations/

    https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/west/2012/09/20/263861.htm

  8. Perhaps one factor in play here is portability of wealth. For example, Bitcoin trades heavily in Asia, perhaps more per capita in South Korea. If I lived 27 miles from PRNK artillery, having a slip of paper with a fortune in Bitcoin, hidden on my person, or in a safe deposit box in another country, would sound prudent. If I lived in a demographic train wreck of a Socialst Ponzi state, having US equities would sound good as a hedge. If I had billions of dollars in oligarch cash, a $450 million painting that fits in my Gulfstream would sound nicer than another beach palace or mega yacht.

    If I was a US stock trader, I might be ditching tech stocks to buy Dow futures, as money from everywhere flees to New York. If I had an estate in a bankrupt state I would be thinking of downpricing to Florida or Texas. With cash and equities. Maybe some paintings. If the Gulfstream’s maximum takeoff weight was not exceeded.

    If I lived in a country with currency controls, like China, a quiet cryptocurrency wallet or three might seem prudent.

    If I held government debt at historic low yields, with governments all over struggling to make payments, portable wealth might sound nice.

    PE ratios are nice in stable times.

    • I would contest your first sentence vigorously. What about George’s statement that you can buy whatever scientific opinion you want didn’t you understand? You remind me of the folks back in Nebraska, who when I said that they should consider that the government was lying to them about going to war with Iraq, almost threw me out of their house. Your statement has no more credibility than yellowcake and photos of chemical weapons factories displayed during a UN speech.

      • Yeah, I had similar convo’s with many blindly trusting sheeples. Eyes are beginning to open now. I laughed at the phone evidence and amateurish pictures presented, especially, the non closeup satellite pictures. I mean everyone knew satellites could read a license plate!!!! Oh, to think of our Innocence in 2001, when we believed a man in a cave could take out the greatest nation on Earth and get permission to fly those Saudis out of our nation when all other jets were grounded, to cause 3 buildings to fall, but only 2 get hit with planes. Have we got enough material for our fairy tale yet???

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.