Housing Data: Hot – As Expected

Just out from Case-Shiller/S&P/CoreLogic:

“YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported an 18.8% annual gain in November, down from 19.0% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 16.8%, down from 17.2% in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted an 18.3% year-over-year gain, down from 18.5% in the previous month. Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in
November. Phoenix led the way with a 32.2% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 29.0% increase and Miami with a 26.6% increase. Eleven of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending November 2021 versus the year ending October 2021.”

Of course, much of this has hinged on the Fed’s 25% plus increase in the Monetary base.  Still, nothing speaks louder than prices:

MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.9% month-over-month increase in November, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.1%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively. In November, 19 of the 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustments while all 20 cities
reported increases after seasonal adjustments.

ANALYSIS
“For the past several months, home prices have been rising at a very high, but decelerating, rate. That trend continued in November 2021,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index rose 18.8% from year-ago levels, and the 10- and 20-City Composites gained 16.8% and 18.3%, respectively. In all three cases, November’s gains were less than October’s. Despite this deceleration, it’s important to remember that November’s 18.8% gain was the sixth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data (the top five were the months immediately preceding November).

As a result, average home prices continue sailing higher nationally:

All this will likely not have as much bearing on the Fed meeting today as the M1 and M2 data expected this afternoon.  But all that when the decision on rates and taper come tomorrow afternoon.

-Ure

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George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/

30 thoughts on “Housing Data: Hot – As Expected”

  1. Hopefully folks are preparing themselves for property tax re-assessments and the associated tax increases. There is no way the folks taking these funds won’t rush out to get these much higher home values into their tax systems as soon as possible. The are quick to re-assess as prices increase and slow if prices do drop. Set aside some funds to pay your “rent” to the government for the use of your land.

    • Long ago, when Oregon had “republicans”, a measure was passed that locks property tax increases to 3% per year or less. As a result, my house would sell for several times what the county taxes me for.

      This, along with a constitutional amendment that forces the government to distribute any surplus tax money compared to the official budget, are some of the only things keeping the state from turning into a giant black hole of taxes centered on Portland. Portland runs the state. Imagine what kind of appetite it would have were protections not in place.

      • Yes, we have a little bit of an idea: AUSTIN, TEXAS, AND PROPERTY TAXES AND TEXAS OVERALL; comes down from the BIG GUYS/GALS somewhere to keep raising the property values and increasing those taxes. (NOT referring to 12 plus acreage ag exempt holdings.)

        Not survivable.

        We cut bait and bailed but know it is just a matter of time.

  2. The Question, how aggressive is Blackrock, and other Blackrock type actors, into buying up all available housing? All around DFW these “mini-community” apartments are popping up and fast too. Dense population centers complete with their own stores. They are in an all out effort to turn Texas Blue. Soro’s plan? NWO plan? It’s ugly. Ure Thoughts?

    • I once had a vision that the world would be composed of self contained living centers like malls with apartments on one end and offices on the other. Clothes and furniture would be rented. There would be no need to go outside or own anything.

    • Mark, I don’t think you are Mark (who already knows about the Blue Soros Meanies that are out to get you, and has a much more informed viewpoint than your obvious blue/red baiting post)..
      Blackrock isn’t to blame, it’s your local govt that won’t permit new houses to be built:

      https://www.vox.com/22524829/wall-street-housing-market-blackrock-bubble

      Texas has restored it’s jobs back to pre-pandemic level (get some red roses for those blue ladies, those newcomers who will be voting blue!):
      https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/25/economy/us-pandemic-job-market-texas-arizona/index.html

      Will the real Mark please stand up? Your expertise is in the high-end Bay Area market where you are resigned to fight over home sales with your fellow realtors, as # of available houses for sale sank to historic lows:
      https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/01/22/bay-area-home-for-sale-signs-disappear/

      Econ Fracker – You are spot on, congrats, that plug stuck in the dyke won’t hold forever, drowned tulips won’t be on anybody’s shopping list…hopefully ‘let’s go dutch’ will be happening soon (Republicans will allow corporate tax rate to rise, child care tax credit to happen, IRS to be better funded so cheats can be caught, etc….). Social Security won’t be sending out full checks in 10 years unless some more ‘windmills’ get built!

    • MARXIE:

      Very aggressive, as you very well, know.

      Of course, they are trying to turn Texas BLUE, WHAT WAS YOUR FIRST CLUE – OPEN BORDERS FOR DECADES, MASSIVE LEGAL AND CHAIN MIGRATION? Hundreds of billions of dollars supporting all of them.

      But then, maybe like Rip Van Winkle, you just WOKE up yesterday.

      With George Soros and his voting machines installed in many states in America and his installed District Attorney’s; we will not be able to VOTE ourselves to freedom.

      But, you know, MARXISTS, socialists and communists (I repeat myself) really don’t care, DO YOU?

  3. Starting 20 December 2021

    Lammert Decay Fractal Series (for any major US composite index)

    Black Monday: 5/11/10 days. 24 January 2022
    Black Tuesday: 5/11/11 days. 25 January 2022
    Black Wednesday: 5/11/12 days. 26 January 2022
    Black Thursday : 5/11/13 days. 27 January. 2022

    Bitcoin in USD (trades 7 days a week)

    Starting 12 December 2021 and completing a 29+/72/76/44-46 day
    Fractal Decay Series

    8/19-20/19-20 days

    • So now it’s “Black [pick a day of the Week]”?
      Sheesh! Starting to sound like Nostradamus.

  4. If the Child Care Tax credit checks were any indicator I suspect a lot of people shouldn’t even be in their houses. I wouldn’t mind selling my house but then what? I’d have a bag full of money.

    All the other houses dotting the fruited plain are just as overpriced as mine. Raise hogs in Tennessee? When I buy whatever the other pronoun is unloading taxes will reset higher.

    There’s no incentive.

    • Gotta go rural and possibly smaller house, larger yard, acreage, and have plenty of money left over; still great deals out there. Ag exempt, that’s the goal.

      A man shared with us today, he picked out a great site for sale on the Colorado River, at a wonderful price, the bank he used would not complete the sale, so he was out of time in breach of contract and so the sale fell through, and then the bank person bought the property from the owner. A corrupt inside job.

      He then told me he found 10 acres, ag exempt, a nice barn/home and private area. With the things I think are coming, I told him, the 2nd property was the better deal, as a lot of rivers are gonna flood their banks in Texas.

      Of course, I did not tell him about that rivers part; just that God was surely looking out for him. A real nice man and see that corruption/theft/inside job BS is still alive and well.

  5. $20billion here, $40billion there; pretty soon it adds up to real money.

    The Fed said last month that they would cut their purchases of mortgages and cmo by 50% to $20 billion in January. That would mean $40 billion in December. Since the Fed “taper” started in December, the previous purchases (undisclosed so far as I know) would have been somewhere over $40 billion per month. I don’t remember the number, but it seems the Fed has been buying most if not all mortgages? Where’s Mark when you need him? What is going to happen the the real estate market when they stop?

  6. (This may be a partial duplicate)

    The 12 December 2021 y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y three phase fractal decay series range: 5/11/10-13 days:

    Black Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday 24-27 January 2022:

    For the US composites equity indices following a three phase y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y Lammert Decay Fractal series and Starting 12 December 2021:

    10/11/10 days Black Monday 24 January 2022
    10/11/11 days Black Tuesday 25 January 2022
    10/11/12 days black Wednesday 26 January 2022
    10/11/13 days Black Thursday 27 January 2022

    For BTC/USD (trading 7 days a week) ending a 29+/72/76/44-47 four phase xy/2-2.5xy/2-2.5xy/ 1.5-1.6y fractal series:

    Starting 8 December 2021: 8/19-20/18-21 days

    Crash devaluation: 25-27 January 2022

    Hangseng Composite starting 6 January 2022 :: y/2.5y/2-2.5y :: three phase fractal decay series: 3/8/5 of 8 days.

    Crash devaluation: 26-28 January 2022

  7. Rut -row, G-olan Heights – still aint recognized by the Da Big Bad Bear. How panicked-scared is Israhell today?

    Knock Knock
    Who’s there?
    joint patrol..(no not a ganja gang..)
    Migs
    Migs Who?
    Syrian&Russian
    Knock Knock
    Whats there?
    23’s,29’s,34’s and 35’s
    Me thinks this be a very strongly worded Warning regards Ukies.

    Where is the Jezreel valley ..in the North – historically has seen more blood soaked soil than any other valley on the planet -knone as megiddo valley or just plain ole https://youtu.be/ga4wASz39Fc

    Got Oil and/or Nat Gas ?

    No, really..

  8. Not to worry, the great vaxx die off will begin any day now, that should open up some of this housing and drop prices accordingly.

  9. Floating a crazy idea here on how the establishment removes bidet and/or ?:
    Blame the russian’s for destroying the Off-White House even though no one is in it and then whomever they want removed is/are not seen again and replaced.
    Maybe Clif can run a key word search? : )

  10. Biden State Department Claims ‘Collapse of Western Civilizazation’ is Russian Disinfo

    The Biden State Department claims that discussion about the ‘collapse of western civilization’ and the evisceration of traditional values is a Russian disinformation operation.

    Apparently, it’s all just an invention of the Kremlin.

    https://youtu.be/wkOYKq3uq8w

    I wondered what happened to PJW…
    __________

    PUTIN’S WAGER IN RUSSIA’S STANDOFF WITH THE WEST

    A large war in Europe is likely in the coming weeks. The current security architecture of the continent, the future of NATO, and America’s role in shaping security outcomes there are all at stake. Beyond Europe, this conflict would have profound implications for U.S. defense strategy, and may upset America’s best-laid plans to focus on the eroding military balance with China. Ukraine, whose fate hangs in the balance, may be at the center of the crisis, but Moscow has a greater goal in mind: the revision of Europe’s security order.

    https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/putins-wager-in-russias-standoff-with-the-west/
    __________

    According to Washington’s top diplomat, there is no room for compromise on Moscow’s key concern

    US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has hinted that Washington will never agree to Russia’s proposal to limit NATO expansion close to its borders by blocking Ukraine from trying to join the military bloc. Speaking to reporters following talks in Geneva with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Friday, Blinken said that the American side had given a “firm and substantive” response to two draft treaties proposed by Moscow.

    https://www.rt.com/russia/546761-us-not-deal-moscow/

  11. I think Monday was a 4 and yesterday was 5.

    We’re do for a 3 wave corrective phase. Can a three wave corrective phase happen in one day??

  12. People have been predicting aliens in February. I think even Clif mentioned aliens. What about Nostradamus?

  13. George, you didn’t mention it, but the advanced Wholesale and retail inventories of +2.1 and +4.4% respectively is rather sharp and cause for concern. For one, it indicates less need to make more stuff and probably also that consumers are starting to buy less stuff. Consider this an indication the economy is slowing.

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