Home Prices Soften a Tiny Bit

by

Just out:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.0% annual gain for July, down from a 5.5% annual gain in the previous month.
The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 6.8%, down from a 7.4% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 5.9%, dropping from a 6.5% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with an 8.8% increase in July, followed by Las Vegas and Los Angeles with annual increases of 8.2% and 7.2%, respectively. Portland held the lowest rank for the smallest year-over-year growth, notching the same 0.8% annual increase in July as last month.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite upward trends continued to decelerate from last month, with pre-seasonality adjustment increases of 0.1% for the national index,
and both the 20-City and 10-City Composites remained unchanged on the month.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, while both the 20-City and 10-City Composite reported a monthly rise of 0.3%.

ANALYSIS
“Accounting for seasonality of home purchases, we have witnessed 14 consecutive record highs in our National Index,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “While the S&P
500 has achieved 39 record highs and the S&P GSCI Gold TR hit 35 record highs, housing is following a similar trajectory. The growth has come at a cost, with all but two markets decelerating last month, eight markets seeing monthly declines, and the slowest annual growth nationally in 2024. Overall, the indices continue to grow at a rate that exceeds long-run averages after accounting for inflation.”

Looking at the price chrt, little sign of inflation rolling down:

We look at the continued firmness in housing as still more evidence the Fed didn’t need to lower a half.

After the numbers, market pricing looked a little firmer, so still looks like Double Top day to use.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

14 thoughts on “Home Prices Soften a Tiny Bit”

    • The thing with needing people is questionable to me.

      Back into the 1960’s maybe shifts of 30,000 folks or more were needed to pump out cars. The last vertically integrated American car complex, Buick City, closed in 1999.

      “But at its peak in the 1970s, nearly 30,000 people worked at Buick City, and jobs there supported a solid middle class. ”

      Today I’ve posted links showing the Chinese BYD car manufacturing process. People attach rolled steel at one end, the parts are tumbled together by robots and 20 folks at the end of the line inspect fit and finish of showroom ready cars.

      Other people applications might be doctoring. Visit a modern emergency room. They’re using advanced machines. When a doctor orders a scan/X-ray two people take the scan bedside and images are on a screen within minutes. Gone are the days of people being carted around.

  2. Generally by me houses are still moving.

    The houses that slowed are the 1940’s style wooden bungalows on the main roads. These were built in the times when the land behind them was woods/fields.

    Houses in the subdivisions are still flying. Again, I would sell but to buy back in means my taxes will double so no net gain.

    • The Delusion… “Grow rich by simply owning a home.”

      RICK ACKERMAN: The stock market went bonkers following the Fed’s first rate-cut since March 2020, but it’s more than a little tempting to sell the news. A return to easing had been rumored for the last couple of years, but with a pitchfork mob threatening to descend on the Eccles Building, Fed Chairman Powell finally gave in to Wall Street. The mainstream media has given him cover with the lame story that lower rates will help spur employment. Historians are more likely to recall that the central bank’s pivot toward lower rates came at a time when stocks were breaking out to new all-time highs, inflation was ravaging the middle class, and home prices were at record levels. Still, it’s an election year, and what did we expect? The Open Market Committee is simply revivifying the American Dream — not with a scrawny chicken in every pot, but with renewed hopes of a leased Lexus in every garage.

      What will lower rates mean? For one, they could conceivably delay a crash in home prices and stocks for a while. It has been coming ever since the 2007-08 deflation failed to finish the job. At the time, one might have surmised that the nation’s most popular and pernicious delusion — growing rich simply by owning a home — had suffered a fatal blow.

      https://www.rickackerman.com/2024/09/sell-the-news/

      • Houses have utility value. A house offers a warm/cool dry space to store our stuff. Paid off houses lower land rent to minimum – .gov land use rent Vs PITI and a small profit to the landlord. But you already know this.

        In terms of lower rates/growing rich we’d have to graph it to determine if there’s enough time for a flip to supplement our income. That is keep the current house for the lower property taxes which will go up when the place is classified as a a second house. Buy a second house making it primary residence for the one year of renovations/flip waiting period. After the year sell the second now primary residence then reclassify the first house back to primary residence for the better property tax rate.

        I think if the house has been a primary residence for more than one year but less than two years the capital gains exclusion is 1/2 or $125,000. Perhaps one of the RE experts can chime in.

        “Capital Gains Exclusion

        Homeowners who have owned and lived in their homes for at least two years may qualify for a $250,000 capital gains exclusion ($500,000 for married couples filing jointly). The exclusion may reduce or eliminate the taxable capital gain from the sale of your home, but you’ll need to meet eligibility requirements.”

  3. A little dance on the T.I. Scientific this morning and…, voila !
    The DJIA., the S&P500., the Russell 2000., the Wilshire 5000 and the NASDAQ are not forming a double top.
    Would Fibonacci lie to you ?
    * * *
    A lot of talk this morning on the S&P hitting 6,000 by year’s end. [5,732 – now]
    So.., that leads me to conclude that the downward move., the “sell-off” will be ’caused’., a trigger event. Something large with a global effect. Could easily be home-based., or international.
    Shall we make a list of the potentials ? …, nah
    * * *
    Remember fellow travelers..,

    Math doesn’t lie – people lie about the math.

  4. A little dance on the T.I. Scientific this morning and…, voila !
    The DJIA., the S&P500., the Russell 2000., the Wilshire 5000 and the NASDAQ are not forming a double top.
    Would Fibonacci lie to you ?
    * * *
    A lot of talk this morning on the S&P hitting 6,000 by year’s end. [5,732 – now]
    So.., that leads me to conclude that the downward move., the “sell-off” will be ’caused’., by a trigger event. Something large with a global effect. Could be at home., or more then likely – international.
    Shall we make a list of the potentials ? …, nah
    * * *
    Remember fellow travelers..,

    Math doesn’t lie – people lie about the math.

  5. phew.. made a roast and no balsamic vinegar…
    1 tbsp and put it in a pressure cooker..
    I like aged balsamic vinegar but..at 40 bucks an ounce lol
    so I fake age it. for each cup of balsamic vinegar.. you take
    1 ounce of sugar
    1 ounce of port wine..
    ( optional is 1 ounce of molasis)
    heat the port wine up till its simmering take it off
    add the balsamic vinegar and the sugar
    put it in an open bowl toss in a charred white oak.. ( real aged balsamic vinegar is aged like fine wines and whiskeys)
    put it in a dehydrator for 72 hours at 135 degrees till it is thickened at half the content..
    you can smoke it then with a smoke infusion..great stuff for dipping or salads.
    https://images.app.goo.gl/eweqdyGsqYqjr9YN7

  6. FCC Creating A New Shortcut For “Soros-Backed Group” To Buy Hundreds Of Radio Stations Before November Election

    FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr voiced concerns about a decision to fast-track the sale of hundreds of radio stations owned by bankrupt firm Audacy to the Soros Management Fund — before the 2024 election, during a hearing with the House Oversight and Accountability Committee.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/09/24/fcc_commissioner_brendan_carr_fcc_creating_a_new_shortcut_for_soros-backed_group_to_buy_hundreds_of_radio_stations_before_november.html

Comments are closed.

Toggle Dark Mode