Yes, my sensitive and politically correct readers – the stock market which has seemed “topless” should run out of steam in here. Because in today’s preopen (and depending on Housing which will be along in moments) we coud see the maraschino on top.
Why, over the balance of Fall, we don’t wonder “What could go wrong?” No sir, we’re wondering “What could go right?”
From here through the end of the year, my friend Bullish Bob may have to change his handle to somthing more fitting: like Reluctant Robert. Which is better than Bearish Bobby, but not by much.
Still, if it really is True that markets can climb a wall of worry…
- Kamala Harris has already said she will raise taxes.
- The wars are popping out all over the place.
- And new ones threaten in the Pacific, where an embargo by China on Taiwan could leave us short of critical goods, thereby crippling our military and making resupply difficult for key weapons systems.
- Even Bitcoin hasn’t been able to buck the resistance around $65,000 and so, at least for now, will not participate in this feverish blowoff. Never fear, though, hysteria will be along, there again, we’re sure.
Meanwhile, we have no freaking clue what economic Truth is. We don’t trust the numbers of people actually employed. Best guess we have is the BLS data table which is never mentioned in the (so-called) press reports.
“Persons of Convenience”
We might as well have called this “Crooked Data Tuesday” because a colleague and I have been exchanging Big, Deep Thoughts on where the “happy ending” to all our financial and social suffering might be hiding. (We’ll get to that in a second…)
For now, I am razzled and dazzled by how the Open Border People (OBP) are likely “statistical persons of convenience.”
See, if I were crooked and producing economic stats, I’d under count “non-citizens” when making up the Labor Force numbers:
Logically (and demographically) with all the Boomers retiring, we should be going down the same road as Russia. Which is so worried about falling populations that they’re talking “sex breaks” at work. Seriously.
But this gets us to which of the illegals get counted – if any – in the Labor Stats.
The second data ponder is about of the working. Because (again, don’t be scared off by logic) if more people are working, then the economy must be doing better, right? So why is Jay Powell and the money-gifters lowering rates by a HALF?
Look at year-ago numbers and the simplistic answer we keep coming back to is Politics. The (supposedly, in fairytles) “non-partisan” Fed is being exactly partisan.
Then there’s the problem of unemployment (the Fed goes mute on):
In the latest reporting month, unemployment wasn’t up – it was down – so again, we come back to wondering Is the Fed putting its thumb on the scales of politics?
I know – cynical George. If housing comes in even part-way close to rational, then the market is likely to continue up, at least far enough to hit the old high in our Aggregate of 48,605.37. It’s an article of faith that from our pre-open read of 48,528.01 that we will likely trade through the double top.
Even my friend the Economic Fractalist is seeing the same thing: Maybe a tad more tomorrow and then off to the double-diamond falling off the mountain for the balance of early fall.
Oh, and while a number of people have complained that the Economic Fractalist is “frequently wrong” it depends entirely on your understanding of NON-MAINSTREAM HYPE. With similar thinking as to why we use an Aggregate Index for the Big Picture, his focus is on the Wilshire 5000 and I suppose the Russell 2000 ought to be mentioned, too.
On the Wilshire, yes, we are in a new high: Wilshire 5000 Total Market Inde (^W5000). But it’s – as A.I. tells us – weighted. “The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index, or more simply the Wilshire 5000, is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the market value of all American stocks actively traded in the United States.” Which – in our not-so-humble – can fool your decision-making in a broadly inflationary and easy-money setting.
On the other hand, the Russell 2000 (^RUT) Stock Price, News, Quote & History – Yahoo Finance is very clear this is not a “double top” (or near it) yet. Yes, the Russell is weighted, too, but it tilts toward small caps: “The Russell 2000 Index is different from other major indexes because it tracks small-cap stocks, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) track large-cap stocks.”
And in classical market studies, when you’re in the terminal phase of a blowoff you get concentration in the “popularity contest stocks” (Magtnificent Seven, for example). While the stepchildren (small cap) tend to get overlooked in the fray.
If you want to get sucked in at the top with the “going higher, get aboard!” talk from the shills, have fun. We don’t offer financial advice. However, we will remind you of a concept from TCM (traditional Chinese medicine): In TCM ts was long practiced that if the patient didn’t get better, the doctor didn’t get paid. Try finding a “financial advisor” who’s willing to work for zero if you don’t make at least the rate of inflation. Let us know if you find such a saint.
If and when we go even (much) higher from here, then we will dump our short position and take the loss. Because – as Investopedia explains – “Carryovers of capital losses have no time limit, so you can use them to offset capital gains or as a deduction against ordinary income in subsequent tax years until they are exhausted.”
With Kamala, the Return of Hillary?
Don’t know if you caught the NY Post – Miranda Devine piece last weekend, but go do a refresher on How a circle of spies, Blinken covered up Biden scandals: Miranda Devine’s new book exclusive (nypost.com). Because we can see – now that the Brits were turned down by Biden on deep attacks in Russia, how Blinken and his overseas pals were set back from having non-US militaries call the tune on wars being waged. In fact, we have roughly pieced togethr that Lloyd Austin may have been a hero on saving American sovereignty in all this.
Complicated (and Michiavellian) this futuring stuff. For now, we think Ms. Harris will let herself be “played” by the neocon faction (where we’d slot Blinken;s allegiances). But we wouldn’t put it past her to later, bring back the Hildebeast. Which could then set up a whole “Lemony Snickett” series of knock-on events to get Hil into the Oval.
I wake up sweating when these kind of thoughts show up in nightmares. Got to stop watching Designated Survivor reruns.
BTW: Austin has more to say: SecDef Lloyd Austin Just Revealed America’s Weakness. The keeper quote: “Western governments have fallen victim to the same errors of Germany during World War II, relying upon small numbers of high-tech weapons to compensate for a lack of military manpower.”
The Lebanon War Update
Yes, it’s a war. Israel, Hezbollah resume missile launches after conflict’s deadliest day since 2006. We are amazed at the soft-peddling of this in the Mainstream. Are we the only ones who remember all the “end times” stuff. Or have studied G.A. Stewart’s more recent Nostradamus fit? “The Bhagwan Plan” is longish but goodish.
The Reality Check here is simple: Biden has gotten us into another full-on war and even now the apologist press is pretending. Like the story Israel and Hezbollah on Brink of All-Out War, as Thousands Flee From Southern Lebanon. Pardon my language, but “brink” my ass.
Ukraine is another shitshow. While reading the stories like Ukrainian President Envisions Possible End to Conflict in 2024, we note that Ukraine NATO membership, more weapons, and, oh yeah, more money would be necessary. And buried deep in the story was this lil gem: “On Monday, G7 foreign ministers will discuss possible deliveries of longer-range missiles to Ukraine that could target Russian territory, EU foreign affairs representative Josep Borrell confirmed.” More strikes deeper inside Russia and people wonder why Russia will likely again boycot the sham “peace talks” being planned? About the only grown up in the room is the Czech president: Ukraine needs to be ‘realistic’ and give up territory to Russia, says Czech president (rmx.news). Yeah, the Russian-speaking part.
Amidst all this Wars in Middle East, Ukraine poised to dominate high-stakes UNGA. Well, along with the Summitt for the World Globalist power grab, too. Craziness abounds.
Short Snorts
Like a Deere caught in [media] headlights: Trump threatens tractor maker John Deere with 200% import tariff if it moves manufacturing to Mexico | Fortune. (Our Kubota was made on the Georgia assembly line near as we can tell…)
Maybe honesty is back in the Times? Democrats dis New York Times poll showing Trump gains.
Useful assertion to hear: Wikipedia Donations Go Toward Embedding Feminism And Racial Justice In World’s Largest Encyclopedia. One of these days I will trace the history of where this sexual, environmental crap came from. Short version is it’s a fall out of the 1976 Limits to Growth world model iterations by later researchers who threw their own ideas into the forecasting models and started using that as a justification for going crazy. The solution to the future that avoids complete and utter Global Collapse is really CT – comprehensive technology, but sex changes as an industry? Pass the nitrous, please.
At the Ranch: Our Missing Civil Defense
Not to poke sticks at FEMA but when was the last time you heard the term Civil Defense? Main writing on Peoplenomics.com tomorrow. Seems traitorous to us that liberal spending programs on socialist agenda items have taken a backseat to national survival.
Oh, and speaking of defense: Down in Florida Gov. DeSantis declares state of emergency for Tampa Bay counties, as Hurricane Helene looms.
Thankfully, the path of Helene seems nowhere near our place. but with only a tenth of an inch of rain – if that – in a couple of days, my well-tended lawn is now basically hay stubble.
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
New Highs – check
israel on the brink of destruction – check
Russia on brink of total destruction of “western” front lines- check
PUNISHMENT Phase to follow..Uneighborly neighbors should be paying careful attention to their defenses.
? What is deep, dark and enormously destructive to Life ?
A – enjoy the presentation, while youse still can..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=236ZxZ0TX6I
It would be nice if TEF could render a report in layman’s terms…. just sayin
………, agree
I fear that to him, he is…
Now that your lawnmower works fine and maybe you cut less grass in the Winter, you can put it to good use with your sailing skills:
https://youtu.be/xv_5K9DlkPc?si=65A8v3PPy-ryxval
If the Ukraine should surrender its Ruskie speaking areas to Putin, then the argument can be made for surrendering large swaths of the Southwest US, from Cali to Texarkana, back to Mexico. The Ukraine Russian speaking areas were swarmed with Russian immigrants over the past 30-odd years, just as SW ‘Merica has been inundated by migrants from way down south of the border (and beyond, apparently). China’s Xi, the Norks’ Kim and Iran’s Kamenei are watching events in the Ukraine with great interest to see how NATO and the West respond to their migrant invasion. The general consensus in DoD circles is if Russia gains territory thru uninvited military occupation, Xi, Kim, Kamenei and likely others, will follow that model. The West is walking on diplomatic eggshells with how to respond to this land grab.
Land Grab ?
Bullsceisse !
They are DEFENDING their homeland, and refuse to kill CIVILIANS in the process – unlike Ure ilk.
There’s a difference. We acquired our land via purchases, and cessions to us as war reparations.
Russia was not uninvited. They were simply not invited by the Ukrainian administration, which the Kremlin undoubtedly views as illegitimate, since we overthrew the legally, democratically-elected government and replaced it with this one.
What if, as a part of a peace settlement, Ukraine either cedes the Rus-native portion of the Ukrainian Region to Russia as war reparations, or grants it independence as a new nation (either of which would likely be amenable to Moscow)? Suppose Kiev acknowledges that Crimea did, in fact, secede from Ukraine and had every right to then petition Russia for inclusion as Russian territory? Suppose Kiev acknowledges that Russia had every right to accept Crimea’s petition and the Crimean Peninsula as Russian territory?
(“Not to poke sticks at FEMA but when was the last time you heard the term Civil Defense? Main writing on Peoplenomics.com tomorrow. Seems traitorous to us that liberal spending programs on socialist agenda items have taken a backseat to national survival.”)
I get that.. our infrastructure is near collapsing.. and all we do is defensive repairs rather than offensive maintenance.. instead our money that should be for the security of the USA is dolled out to countries in wars so that a few oligarchs can get richer and gain more power..
not since truman have we addressed and improved our infrastructure.. our grid is on the verge of collapse.. because of the business model it really wouldn’t take any efforts to cause it to collapse.. just like greenscaping the cities or putting up co2 filters on every lamp post to replicate the results of deforestation.. it doesn’t fit the business models..
yet.. indian tribes are handing out and implementing solar power to make sure if the grid does collapse.. then everyone would have the utilities that we all depend on..
while our power companies put up huge wind turbines that only produce a small percentage of what they could get for the exact same money..
kind of like the issues in congress.. they say are so important.. yea sure you betcha.. they are so important that even when somebody shows up no one shows up less than one percent feel its important enough to address and look at as long as it doesn’t affect their days off of course.. shadow games..
the infrastructure is so important that we won’t do anything about any of it..
happen to me today … wow
I’ve been a kaspersky user for years ….. and no I am not an antivirus expert ….. installed without my permission … wow ….. sign of the times …….. buyer beware
https://www.pcmag.com/news/kaspersky-antivirus-abruptly-replaced-with-ultraav-in-the-us-angering-users
I got the UltraAV download on the 19th, but it is co-existing with Kaspersky on that PC (Win 11). One of my Win 10 Rigs didn’t get the download and Kaspersky still works. Virus signature updates are scheduled to end 9/30. I will try getting updates via VPN from another country. They should have emailed links to download and install UltraAV instead of forcing it.
Nice…
I’d been a fan of KAV for years, deleted it and went to NOD32 about 5 years ago when Kaspersky began sucking more than its share of resources, and not freeing them.
For long after I stopped building computers, I grabbed copies of every highly-rated AV and ran them through their paces, about every 4-5 years. I didn’t check their efficacy, leaving that to people who professionally evaluate AV software. Instead, I worked them for the amount of resources they ate, whether they relinquished the resources they did use, once their scan completed, how much of a PITA they were on computer startup, how easily and completely they were to be uninstalled, etc.
I permanently shitcanned several AV programs and suites because they could not be cleanly uninstalled. It appears to me UltraAV may be another one of these. I suggest anyone who’s still running KAV to dump it while they can, and anyone who has had UAV shoved down their throat to download a copy of Revo Uninstaller
https://www.revouninstaller.com
and use it to yank that bitch off their computer before it hooks the system so deeply it can only be removed with a complete hard drive wipe.
What AV should you use? Beats me. What I would do is start with Kim Komando’s website (komando.com) and read. Try Tom’s Hardware and Ars Technica, as well. Run a search for “best AV software” on both Google and Dogpile. Understand, both Kim’s opinion and that of others are for sale, but unlike generic “ratings” websites, the three sites I mentioned have a reputation to uphold. Lastly, download and try a couple… Ya might want to keep that copy of Revo Uninstaller for a while, just in-case.
Alternatively, you can run a 5-minute search and just install whatever you’re told to…
YMMV
baby fing freaks,,, strange coincidence?,,, not at all!
JUST IN: Son of Would-Be Trump Assassin Ryan Routh Arrested For Child Pornography
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/just-son-would-be-trump-assassin-ryan-routh/
but around the satanic crowd of liddle Sorass and Huma joined up with tampon Tim Walz, 2nd time in a month
https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1838384398770590100
birds of a feather,
or pedos of the scale,
for human blood
they do inhale
a lot of music pop stars deleting twitter posts
https://www.distractify.com/p/why-are-celebrities-deleting-posts-diddy-tapes
ditto,,, they all seem to follow each others foot steps
was it ditto or Diddy,,, how is barry doing? giggle snort
did the trapper get trapped? who is in his videos?
‘Hunters become the Hunted’,,, I believe is what Q posted
when does the diddy bird sing?
as we all worry about financial break downs and global wars and diseases,,, fix the satanic pedo problem and 99% of the problems will go away,,, the rest will be small potatoes
https://www.americanlibertyreportnews.com/articles/what-did-andrew-breitbart-know-about-john-podesta/
54 sec video of Breitbart to Podesta [fuck u John Podesta]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgBvPx4CvhI
MAGA and I need one of green hats for MAHA
https://teeshirtpalace.com/products/maha-maga-make-america-healthy-great-again-trump-kennedy-legacy-tie-dye-trucker-hat_mmm0058260-ofth
When they put Pee Diddler on “suicide watch” last week, I hope alarm bells went off in other people’s heads besides mine…
I suspect every music celeb and most of the Hollyweird crowd have had all their known web and social site pages archived or screencapped on some geek’s computer, by now.
I just hope neither Bill, Hil, (nor Chels) ever went to one of his parties…
“Deere caught”
Most folks don’t look much past the badge on cars now-a-days. If it says GM/Ford/Tesla they feel happy inside.
The most American made cars are:
– Tesla
– Honda
– Toyota
Those are what we should by when ‘supporting American workers’. Opposite world in a VFW/American Legion parking lot.
In Detroit they still use the term “Big Three”. Chrysler has been foreign for ages now. They’re never coming back. Tesla is built elsewhere. There’s only two. Nostalgia and former glory.
And another thing! Speaking of typos.
I do not like sending my ideas out into the aether but most browsers have a spellcheck feature. Misspell a word and the the writer is somehow alerted. A.I. should be integrated into browsers checking for word contexts/homophones and alerting us. It’s all bloated spyware anyway.
Bi fore now.
A new HIGH today in SPY ! Hot dam Homegamers! And, and in an election year to boot!
Hunh you no following ?
Its alright Kemosabe’s – history shows hitting new highs on SPY in election year is like 100% accurate for higher highs rest of year..3% up from heres?
Dont know, not worried, as I always cover my six, so to speak, so gonna party on like its 19 99 -https://youtu.be/y65kOqNpt3Y?si=NSA79gtF42uR3BhI
Got Salt ?
“…when was the last time you heard the term Civil Defense?”
Some years back, apparently to be ‘politically correct’ in our ‘Blue State’, the Honolulu Civil Defense agency changed it’s name to ‘Department of Emergency Management’. The letters DEM are now appended to the officers there… just to be clear who they work for.
re: baksheesh
Folks,
Western msm appears rather reticent to offer a ‘hear ye, hear ye’ on yesterday’s announcement from Mr. Durov. He being lately released from French detention where one is guilty until proven innocent.
According to the “Times of India”, the TOS have changed for the Telegram app. While formerly the app would release user information pertaining to State inquiry of terrorism matters, the tos user info release has now expanded to things deemed unlawful by States.
“The Times of India” traces its roots to 1838 according to Wikipedia, and is a couple of subsidiaries down from ownership by India’s Jain Family. The writeup infers that the Jain Family descends from the Jain ethnic group comprising 0.37% of India’s population. The Jain religion is one of the world’s oldest. Now allegedly the “Times of India” was a pioneer in Indian journalism for offering businesses options to pay for news coverage, with company named when news positive and unnamed when negative. I don’t know if Telegram was apprised of this quaint holdover practice from Empires past.
Of course, good news from Ukraine as legislators ban Telegram use by officialdom. Fear not, President Zelensky’s Telegram channel continues with regular updates. The most recent images seem to point to his journey aboard a US Airforce jet destined to a munitions factory tour in Pennsylvania. Was there opportunity for the President to cast a ballot in the swing state?
“We might as well have called this “Crooked Data Tuesday” because a colleague and I have been exchanging Big, Deep Thoughts on where the “happy ending” to all our financial and social suffering might be hiding. (We’ll get to that in a second…)”
The best employment we ever achieved in the postwar era happened in July and August of 2006, when the number of persons employed was over 167 million out of a total population of 298 million. This means the percentage of people employed in the United States in August of 2006 was 56%.
There are an estimated 342 million people in the United States today. According to this chart, the total number of people employed in the U.S. in August of 2024 was 161.4 million. This means the percentage of people employed in the United States in August of 2024 was 47%
Our total employment would need to be 181 million FULL TIME to be on parity with the level of employment in 2006. We seem to be a few shy of that number.
But wait! There’s more:
In 2006, part-time employees weren’t a part of these statistics
The “accounting of statistics” was a lot closer to honest than it is today
So were the numbers, themselves.
Every Leftist nutjob (and a lot on the Right and Center also) bitch because in their opinion Earth is overpopulated.
Right?
Then, can someone tell me why these same people whine and cry when our population isn’t rocketing? Can people please make up their damn’ minds? Are there too many people, or not, and if there are, shouldn’t declining populations be celebrated, as our species is, maybe, self-correcting an issue which could eventually kill our entire planet…!??