“Get home!” Time Nearing?

by

Reader Robert gets to take a bow. Because he asked, in effect, “When do I talk to an adult daughter about coming home?” Because of the world hitting a rough patch where (literally) things could all blow up.

The long answer (maps and strategies) will be on Peoplenomics tomorrow. For this morning, just a quick chalk-talk on why you may wish to have a conversation with people you know who are rural.  This is not to be excessively alarmist, mind you.  But there are enough war-mongering headlines if you know where to look such that whoever you decide to call might not think you have completely flipped out.

You might begin with a simple question. Like “Did you happen to catch the story on the news last night? Russia announces nuclear weapon drills after angry exchange with Western officials – ABC?”

Following this with a “You know, if nukes go off anywhere, I was thinking we might not want to be in (insert Big City name). And we are hard working, industrious people who could really help you (and whoever the other decision-maker is) survive and prosper…”

Targeting is a Problem

Ever since the Cuban Missile Crisis, the question has been “What will Russia’s targeting plan be?”  There are two schools of thought.

The first is called “Plan A” which would be a strike both on U.S. military assets but also (very roundly) the top 30-cities in the country plus missile fields and sub bases.  PLAN A | Princeton Science & Global Security.

The Institute for the Study of War posted an update last night that we’d suggest you take some time as study. It’s over here.  But the main takeaway early was about those tactical nuke drills:

“The Kremlin appears to be re-intensifying a reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making using nuclear threats and diplomatic manipulation. Reflexive control is a key element of Russia’s hybrid warfare toolkit — it is a tactic that relies on shaping an adversary with targeted rhetoric and information operations in such a way that the adversary voluntarily takes actions that are advantageous to Russia. Soviet mathematician Vladimir Lefebvre defined reflexive control as “the process of transferring the reasons of making a decision” to an adversary via “provocations, intrigues, disguises, creation of false objects, and lies of any type.” Russia has frequently used nuclear saber-rattling throughout the course of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine to cause the West (Russia’s self-defined adversary) to stop providing military support for Ukraine, and this nuclear saber-rattling has become a frequently used form of Russian reflexive control.”

So, before calling your “bug out destination” and lining up a crash pad, you will first have the (daunting) problem of estimate “How close am I to needing this out?”

Three headlines off the Greek WarNews247 website are worth study:

  1. The first deals with the use of NATO/Western weapons systems in the Crimea.  See, behind the headline Russia: ‘You’re going to cry horribly – Dogs, Judgment Day is approaching’ – Kiev given green light for NATO weapons attacks on Russian mainland lays the Russian claim to that disputed territory.  Which the US/West expropriated by spending $6-billion on overthrowing the elected government of Ukraine back in 2014. (You are supposed to have forgotten this.)   The disputed area is almost entirely Russian-speaking and since they regained effective control of what they consider their lands, it is perhaps a tactical first nuke use tripwire in the sand.   This would only be evident in retrospect.
  2. The second headline deals with Russia being abundantly clear to the West that they are not messing around.  Russia delivered a three-point “nuclear ultimatum” to France and Britain: “We will bomb your countries directly!” NATO apologists and some American military planners bluster and claim Russia would never do such a thing (as attack the West) because it would assure instant retaliatory destruction. However, noted my consigliere in our war-gaming talk Monday,, the Russians have perhaps the toughest mindset in the world right now.  He cited the Russians setting fire to, and burning Moscow to the ground, rather than allow Napoleon to occupy the city.
    1. “During the French occupation of the city, the 1812 Fire of Moscow persisted from 14 to 18 September 1812 and all but destroyed the city. The Russian troops and most of the remaining civilians had abandoned the city on 14 September 1812 just ahead of French Emperor Napoleon‘s troops entering the city after the Battle of Borodino.[2][3][4] The Moscow military governor, Count Fyodor Rostopchin, has often been considered responsible for organizing the destruction of the sacred former capital to weaken the French army in the scorched city even more.”
    2. We would also note the long tie-back of Rostopchin to the Crimea region so hotly contested today: “He claimed that his family was very ancient and originated around the 15th century from Crimean Tatars, direct descendants of Genghis Khan.”
  3. And this sets up the third WarNews237 headline to focus on: Generals call for ‘tough show’ of force from Vladimir Putin: Suggest nuclear missile strikes mercenary center in Ukraine. Now the problem comes into focus.  Because while the Russian (propaganda artists) pitch is these are merc’s (mercenaries) the odds we figure are around 90 percent that it includes FMA’s – foreign military advisors.  And this is where – in the aftermath of any attack on the merc center, the language war for supremacy of media would be fought.  Still, Putin likely has ordnance in the inventory that could fulfill the attack and come very close to nuclear (low yield) in its effects.  Our A.I. researcher tells us

“The Russian version of the Massive Ordnance Air Burst (MOAB), also known as the “Mother of All Bombs”, is the Aviation Thermobaric Bomb of Increased Power (ATBIP), nicknamed the “Father of All Bombs” (FOAB). The FOAB is a thermobaric weapon, which means it explodes at higher temperatures, vaporizing anything in the area. The FOAB is the world’s largest non-nuclear explosive device, with a blast yield equivalent to 44 tons of TNT and a blast radius of 300 meters. The FOAB is four times more powerful than the MOAB, even though it has fewer explosives (7.8 tons compared to the MOAB’s 8 tons).”

Then There’s Rafah

We misjudged the rhetoric and the market manipulations in advance of the Israeli move into Rafah overnight. Went higher for longer.   This morning, though, the market is in an extremely vulnerable position as a result of upward hyper-extension.  Along the thinking “The higher it goes, the farther it will fall.”

Tanks in play now as Israel takes control of Rafah crossing in Gaza after dismissing Hamas’ ceasefire…

But with the move, we see an anti-Israel coalition being a possible outcome of this engagement: Saudi Arabia warns against any Israeli attack on Rafah. Well, guess that ship has sailed.

In the wake of today’s escalation, both Israel and Hamas (and whether they are the legit negotiators for Gazan people is another discussion) are denying doing anything wrong. Hamas In Official Response: “We Agreed To Ceasefire Deal”; Israeli Officials Say Proposal Was Changed.

No doubt the demonstrations will hot-up today on American college campuses and the Bidenistas have put themselves between a rock and a hard spot.  They need both the Jewish voters this fall, but they also need young people and activists.  For now, they’re pissing off both sides.  (Way to go, Joe!)

Meantime, not the day to be a campus cop, again: Over 1,000 anti-Israel protesters march toward Met Gala (nypost.com).  Perhaps they will hug and have a love fest?  No? Just remember, some (and maybe many) of these so-called “protesters” are on someone’s payroll.

Distractions Served to the Idiocracy

It may seem like we’re a little over-the-top on war jitters.  But, as the old saying goes, one nuclear weapon can really ruin your day.  Those of us old reporters, who can remember interviewing people in gas lines in 1973 and the 1975 oil embargo (at the Phillips 66 station on Seattle’s Spokane Street, thanks for asking), will also point out that a combined Iran-backed oil embargo of the West could be a fallout from current events.  Remember. this is the region where “The enemy of My Enemy is My Friend” came from. Keep an eye on what the Bedouins are up to.  Formation of armed Bedouin tribes’ union sparks security debate in Egypt.

Minutia on Parade time; If nukes and gas lines are “No worries” for you, perhaps a fart and squiggle-level of the Trump kangaroo trial would be useful? New witnesses set to take the stand as Trump hush money trial enters its 13th day. Just 13 days?  Why, it seems like it’s been going on for freaking ever.

We realize the term “kangaroo court” is strong. But before you get judgy on me go read Revealed: Trump hush money prosecutor was paid $12,000 by Democratic National Committee for ‘political consulting’ and get me a list of alternative references.

More lies to the Courts?  Color Me Shocked: Special Counsel Admits to FBI Tampering of Mar-a-Lago Documents.

We have long held some people are just stupid and will do anything for a moment in the limelight. Even among ultra-libs, IQ failings abound.  Portland police investigating claims of responsibility in arson fire that burned 17 police cars. Why would anyone in their right mind clasim…uh, wait. I think I just answered my own question.

Markets Set to Roll Over?

The Fed will release the Consumer Debt (called credit by banksters who have you under yoke) this afternoon.  Nothing would surprise us less than people buying in droves before prices go up (or war starts).

Meantime, Market looks like so:

Since Wave 2 retracements can be up to 100 percent, I was way early shorting this pig and it has cost me dearly.  But that’s why we never offer financial advice.  We don’t know many people who play serious poker who go unarmed.  Money’s a funny thing, you know.

Around the Ranch: Skin Walking

Don’t know if you follow it, but the new season of Skinwalker Ranch is on Amazon.  Makes we want to grab a tri-field meter and go walk the property.  Well, except for the snakes and what have you.

We are over 37 inches for the year in the rain department.  Move over Hawaii and the Hoh River, we’re making a run.  Though, in fairness the Hoh River rainforest gets about 12 feet of rain every year.  On the other hand, we are at three feet already.  On the other hand, our levels make Seattle seem like a desert in comparison.  We may pass Seattle this month. (Hmmm where did all these hands come from?)

We hope our Houston Bureau hasn’t been carted off by the Coast Guard, but things down there this week have been just miserable. And Houston is not alone: South of Brazil hit by massive flooding- worst in 80-years.  Climate change floats your boat, does it?

One last thing (7:55 AM) Elaine reports her herd of feral cats is acting “just weird” and only nipping a bite of food – all acting mighty weird.  So, if we get a Big earthquake in the next 48-hours, the farm cats told you…

Write when it dries out,

George@Ure.net

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George Ure
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43 thoughts on ““Get home!” Time Nearing?”

      • re: The Odessa Files
        feat: 1 800 plu mber

        Folks,

        One of the two Ukrainian colonels arrested today, Kyrylo Budanov, was a graduate of The Odessa Military Academy and currently headed the nation’s military intelligence group. President Zelensky awarded him a Hero of the Ukraine medal three months ago.

        An interesting coinkydoink to the arrests is a Tuesday, April 30th news report from Ukranews which didn’t appear on their English language site in a much abbreviated form until Saturday. As an aside, Ukranews appears to have longstanding Kremlin ties. The news agency had been waiting for a reply since early April about a judicial judgement surrounding fraudulent finances of a Ukrainian oligarch, Oleksander Onyshchenko, now domiciled in the EU. It points out that the now now arrested colonel had seized US$600,000 of funds for his agency (while legal proceedings are still underway?). This portion had originally been frozen in 2016 in a failed attempt to purchase Ukrgazvydobuvannya. The article doesn’t say it, but the company seems to appear in Wikipedia as a subsidiary of Burisma.

        https://ukranews.com/ua/interview/3097-suddya-vaks-lesya-fedorak-vyrok-onyshhenku-gotuvavsya-navit-v-bomboshovyshhi-pid-chas-masovanyh

        The oligarch Oleksander Onyshchenko has been on the US sanctions list since 2021 over various allegations including influencing the US election.

        https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1232

  2. G,
    You know, the sound waves carry the message…higher fidelity.
    – turn it up – death metal just sounds better loud, plus hard to hear lyrics.. do youse know Ure norse mythology..
    https://youtu.be/edBYB1VCV0k?si=b0vQFDxUuxLVNMtR

    How about Elven tongue ?
    Amoth Amarth is Sindarin, and it means Mount Doom. Where was J.R.R. hiking when he gained inspiration for LOR? One ring to rule them ALL..

    Same exact place BCN will be in July 2024, its Festival Time, ! Jazzy, no? Plus Tswizzle Eras tour is playing Zurich in July.
    Play along? – its pretty basic – https://youtu.be/Q2FzZSBD5LE?si=bcHsUpYLSNnv2qQY
    Universe willing..not looking for any inspiration, “Its” subtle and has not revealed itself yet. Question remains – what is the BCN going to initiate/ignite ?
    I only know tickets and reservations are booked..(Ouch). Friggin country is EXSPENSIVE and all speak German and or French. Thankfully BCN’s Momma is fluent, taught French for years, lived there for years- same genius who cracked codes for uncle back in 40’s. One of her star students at private Girls school where she taught French, had an uncle who was Navy SEAL, nam vet,senior Officer and XO of Navel Special Warfare Training Command, bet you cant guess who I had to stand before for disciplinary review of complaints filed by a couple of scorned frog hogs while going thru training ? My “swim buddy” and I were absolved and let go with stern warning about getting our asses kicked (severe like) if we got mixed up with frog hogs again. Honestly one of the hardest times I ever had at NOT laughing while in front of Senior Officer, who had a intimidating rack of awards,medals, ribbons and pins staring at me (wings&trident) on his chest.
    The “hogs” claimed we took their radio, they were just mad when realized it was one night kinda dealio…oh well better to have loved, then to have never come at all..

    Speaking of coming, “they” are here and ready to party. Like that Philly girl sings, “If You didnt come to party, dont bother knocking on the door.”
    Its party time and current shuffler in chief in WH and handlers have no idea how 2 party..we bee screwed, blewed and tatooed.

    Feels like its about time, to once again reSharpen the cold hard steel blade..

    and THRASH -https://youtu.be/R1xWo2dzTaM?si=sw0eMhowltMCrdhm

    ? Will Universe intervene, and STOP the BCN frm attending festival party? Or will he be skiing Zermatt with apres snow fondue slope side in July?

  3. Btw, George

    That typo of the word which was supposed to be “assassination” isn’t my fault, I copied and pasted that.

    Strange Woo Woo?

  4. Bread and circuses

    I made the mistake of interrupting a family member who was glued to the MSM TV this morning. “Any news on Ukraine or Gaza?” I asked.

    “Shhhhhhhh” came the reply. “Stormy Daniels is about to take the stand. It’s the story of the century.”

    We’re doomed!

    • How come this reminds me of the OJ Simpson trial?

      If the glove don’t fit, you must acquit.

    • OH MY GOD…..Stormy use to advertise having a porn star experience…. the sure thing.. after this whole brew haha happened.. a guy I knew was saying he had met stormy and she wasn’t worth what he paid I believe he said it cost him five hundred.. there is so much more going on that is so scary and all anyone can talk about is stupid crap.. with all the evidence that they have come up with.. not one of them is in jail.. or being tried..

  5. Do you remember Rhodesia, now they are coming back from the darkness.
    Zimbabwe to adopt newly introduced gold-backed currency for annual budget

    Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube told lawmakers in the parliament that the budget, originally presented in Zimbabwean dollars, will be converted to ZiG by the end of May or early June.

  6. Dang George, I can hardly read your column on my phone due to the large and unmovable Google ads. I’m a subscriber and would expect to not have the damn ads all over the screen, leaving barely an inch of space to read the column. I understand you can’t give your work away, but sheesh, at least cut the ads back for subscribers!!

    • I have actually thought – in full retirement mode – about cutting back to no ads, subscribers only and three days a week (m, w, sat) on Peoplenomics. No ads on the inside and after being ripped off from 25-years on the UbanSurvival brand, can you see how and ol man would get snarfy?

      • I get it George. guess I was in a snarky mood this morning. After all these years of enjoying your work, I should shut the heck up and just be thankful you’re still writing daily. And I am thankful.
        And Wilson’s suggestion to turn the phone sideways works?

    • Try turning the phone sideways, seems to chop a whole lot of the ad space back. Worth a try>

  7. “lining up a crash pad”

    Very few people are going to survive the nuclear exchange. Google says in the U.S. there’s 96 people per mi & Russia has about 1/3 @ 22 inhabitants/sq mi (2024).

    The fire ball won’t be the survival problem but instead the aftermath mass migrations.

    What does a locust look like? Could be a bug, bunny, mouse or a grubby homeless raiding your garden.

    It might be easy to neutralize the bad man through the front door if the setup is like the 1983 movie Scarface. On the other hand if the city gets popped and the suburban children (locusts) start walking into the rural areas will the people ping them as they walk by/at the foot of the drive? It could go either way.

    There may be an advanced warning but think back to 911 when all air traffic was grounded. One has to be at the remote locals now becasue the roads will be clogged.

    • I’m in a very rural area and don’t worry about people from the cities or burbs swarming my location.

      No, I’m much more concerned about locals who see my solar panels and garden every time they drive by my place on the dirt road where I live. Some people have lived out here for years and still haul water because they don’t have a well. Food storage? Garden? Forget it.

      Then there are the infamous Okanogan County Sheriff deputies who are known for their attitude that they have “the right to go home safe at the end of the day” at the same time they tell us that We the People have no right to be safe from them.

      I can easily see them using the same tactics and weapons that they use to raid defensless middle age women to attack off grid home owners for food, solar panels, batteries, etc. After all they and their families are much more special than We the People.

      I am home. No place to go. Some folks still wonder why I would feel safer on a sailboat hundreds of miles out at sea.

      • Having spent some time offshore with the rags up, I know of whence you speak.
        The ocean is a dandy place until the .mils, pirates, and monster rogue bastards start to roll in.
        The, well, the hard is pretty good place to be. My swimming skills would falter in a mile – shark food before beach.

      • Retired LE. I use LED grow lights until I came home one evening and I could see the pink lights from a mile away.
        Not so very long ago looking at the picture you painted I would have said no way. Unfortunately, now I will admit that is a highly likely result after a short period. People are just not the same anymore. The first encounter in your scenario will likely be the last depending on what you are willing to do the protect yourself. Then it’s just a matter of who is meaner than the rest.
        God help us.
        Stay safe. 73

        • BLACKOUT CURTAINS!

          Either thermal or blackout curtains, sold at every box store and thrift for as little as $7/window and available in many colors and prints, so’s not to make yer SO terminally unhappy at their appearance. Once you get up above about $25-$30/window, they start becoming homeshow pretty.

          I favor thermal, because why not recoup the money spent by lowering your HVAC costs…?

    • Getting to where I am on foot from the city would be a major challenge for almost anyone. Someone in great shape with local knowledge and proper equipment could certainly do it given enough time, but it’s certainly not the path of least resistance. Since my kids are far flung, only one could get here if she chose to. The others will have to fend for themselves, and are hopefully at least somewhat prepared. I’m more concerned about relatively local desperate folks who might want to take what they don’t own. American houses are not designed for security, or even comfort in the absence of power.

    • I am skeptical of that 100 mile radius I hear quoted as the safe zone around large cities. I figure 200 mi from the nearest big-box store and garden center would be more like it. A guy with a garden cart full of rations and ammo can probably make it a couple of hundred miles before the rad sickness or competition does him in. Just far enough to screw things up for the 100 mile radius folks. Come to think of it, I had an oversized no-flat garden cart on my bucket list. I want one that can be pulled or towed:

      https://www.amazon.com/dp/B084NY9PTB?ref=emc_s_m_5_i_atc

      On no, it’s out of stock, again. I bet LOOB grabbed up the last one stateside. I would start towing it, then hoof it when the fuel runs out. Hmm, so what I do I tow it with ? It has to be small enough to get between stranded vehicles, large enough to hold several 100 miles worth of fuel and climb over stragglers, and must be invisible. Maybe I’ll just stay home.

      I’m am starting to think about a near-flat solar panel installation (<5 degree) now that my tractor is back working. Wind loading for anything other than lift is zilch, and it is likely to attract less two-legged rats.

    • would someone ping someone walking by.. after they defunded police young girl just pulled into the wrong driveway and was killed…all the studies say the same thing..
      https://www.icanw.org/new_study_on_us_russia_nuclear_war
      and that doesn’t take any of the other things that is presently going on into their train of thought.. I seriously doubt any of them even read any of the reports that they spent millions to have made..
      in the end if the balloon goes up there will just be a handful of people.. then the weather will take care of them..GAZA strip will look like a new city..

      https://archive.org/details/virtualhistoryal0000unse_c4v2

      https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA026362.pdf

      https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2023-Unclassified-Report.pdf

  8. So, I called my daughter and son-in-law about three weeks ago, both firm Cho-Bi-Den libs, and offerred my home (extra bedroom) as a catastrophe shelter. “Just in case — just come. Phone and net might be down.”

    They laughed. They didn’t ask if I was “training somewhere in the mountains,” but that was the tone.

    OK, the offer stands…

    Me? I won’t (can’t, really) travel; and the time it would take to get to my non-existing countryside bunker would be too long, and too fraught with Mad Mob dangers and patent stupidity and Panic.

    So… I’ll Ride It Out here, 10 mles from the 10-ring of Fort Bragg (now Liberty).

    Biggest chance? All talk: no Boom. (my bet.)
    Second biggest chance? Limited in-theatre nooks, quickly stopping, as all sane parties gaze into The Abyss.

    Third chance? TEOEAWKI.

    Fourth? It all just sorta peters out ,without a final resolution, and freezes.

    ITEM TWO:
    Cats here (2 American short-hair “Tuxedo” local rescues) have been off their feed for the last three days. They’re eating about half normal amount, and staying very close to home, and sleeping in their personal hidey-holes almost all the time. (I have long believed cats can hear deep infrasonics. 5 Cycles and down, that large storms are known to emit.

    • People jump to the worst conclusions too quickly. I believe that the absolute worst case (and a relatively low probability) is that the Russians feel that they are forced into an “escalate to de-escalate” situation. They drop one nuc on an isolated, clearly military target – the Pantex plant outside of Amarillo comes to mind. It is so remote that no one gets hurt but the employees. Then they say “Do you want to back down or do you want mutually assured destruction?” Every American politician will fold in a heartbeat.

      • “Every American politician will fold in a heartbeat.”

        I’d take that bet, but wouldn’t live to collect.

        You assume politicians have brains that are as functional as yours.

        They don’t. Within the “political class:”

        Every Leftist is a bully.

        Every bully is a coward.

        Every coward reacts to force like a cornered rat.

        …And then, there are the Lindsey Grahams,
        and the cowboys,
        and Vichy and Hil,
        and the [other] nutjobs,
        and President Houseplant, who’s damn’ near “all the above.”

        If Russia deployed a nuke, anywhere in CONUS, we would counter with, between two and two thousand, within an hour.

        There would not be any thought — reasoned, or otherwise.

        NB: Russia has fallout shelters for 150 million of its ~127 million population. The U.S. has fallout shelters for 700,000 of its ~340 million population.

    • where would you go.. especially if they did let a trojan horse army within the inner workings of the country..

    • My chickens always lay their eggs in the nesting box 4 ft off the ground until 3 days ago, now all the eggs are being laid behind a big rock on the ground, thats 7 hens all changing their laying spot at the same time.
      Very strange.
      I’m 40 miles down wind from North Island Naval base in San Diego and Miramar and Camp pendleton are even closer. Way too many unprepared people around here to even consider being mobile after a serious hit here in so cal, I’m digging in and making a stand here at Rat Weed Gulch Ranch. Keep in mind folks there is a good chance that warheads can miss their targets by a considerable distance. Thinking you are safe cause you are 200+ miles away from a main target isn’t a solid plan. Ammo will be as valuable as food and water around these parts.

  9. (“But there are enough war-mongering headlines”)

    https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/sun-tzu/works/art-of-war/ch03.htm

    (“1. Sun Tzu said: In the practical art of war, the best thing of all is to take the enemy’s country whole and intact; to shatter and destroy it is not so good. So, too, it is better to recapture an army entire than to destroy it, to capture a regiment, a detachment or a company entire than to destroy them.

    2. Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.”)

    What I see is we are using the bull in the china shop rules.. while they are using chess and the art of war.. a few bucks to the brand and the borders are open.. allowing millions to enter.. if the threat analysts are correct then there is already a sizeable army..
    they bought our industry..
    they own the companies that produce ninety nine percent of everything you put in the cart..

    this totally looks like the poison pawn trap.. get the military to get preocupied by other events then let the army they had move in with our open borders take the inside.. take out the port cities.. let the army inside.. the bigger question is.. what countries laws will we be using after its over.. or will we succeed and remain whole.. none of this is good.. we haven’t had a real war on our land in over a hundred years.. the closest is the BLM and Antifa terrorist riot activities that did billions of dollars worth of damage..

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/emilywashburn/2023/03/01/how-much-us-farmland-does-china-really-own-more-than-bill-gates-and-less-than-17-other-countries/?sh=6aaaba4b421f

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