GDP, Trade Goes Law-fare, and it’s Root Canal Day

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This is such and easy column to write!  But that’s how it is in news:  Too much, too fast, with content deserts in-between.

We will start with GDP because it’s what drives one of our most important of all Economic Indicators: Velocity of Money at M2.  Which matters because?

Money has a lot in common with Electricity.  As I explained in a Peoplenomics paper back in 2002, or so, both have a “power function.”  That’s to say both “make work happen.”

In the case of electricity *(and that Ohm fellow) Volts times Current equals Power (in Watts),.  One metric horsepower is about 740 watts *(If you can find a metric horse, usually in Europe.  Detroit horsepower was more fictional, in our experience…)

In Economics, the Money Supply at M2 is a fair analog for Voltage.  While turnover is our “current” clone.  Which is reported (to keep the math-challenged from thinking too deeply) about the Velocity of Money.  Which (getting to the point) is cratering.

As you should be able to make out from the above chart (going back to 1950) the “work done by Money” began to fail just as the Internet and wholesale job jacking and offshoring were underway in 1995.  We can now see how an Elliott Wave 1 down culminated in Q2:2003.

How to fix?  Easy-peasy!  Light up some War!

“In 2003, the Iraq War significantly ramped up, beginning with the invasion of Iraq by the US and its allies on March 19th. This invasion, known as Operation Iraqi Freedom, aimed to overthrow the Saddam Hussein regime, dismantle alleged weapons of mass destruction programs, and promote democracy. The war unfolded in two main phases: a brief conventional conflict followed by a prolonged insurgency. “

And this, kiddies, is (more or less) precisely why the “boring economic crap” matters: because if you expect your family name to live on, helps to limit the number of available “front lines.”

Oh, back to the Elliott of M2:  At the uber-macro  we can see how COVID was a nominal precipitator of Wave 3 bottoming out in 2020.  And we’re about rolling over Wave 4.  But there really is Good News.  The end of the world should be a couple of years out.  Though Wave 5 bottoms can be tough.

A Press Release that Matters

Lot of foreplay, sorry.  (It’s what us older writers do…)  All comes down to a “standard press release” like so:

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.

You can always grab the latest Fed numbers from Federal Reserve Board – Money Stock Measures – H.6 – May 27, 2025.  Where we see that both the “seasonally spiced” and the “more honest” were up nicely in April.  Which we will take to about guarantee the FOMC will NOT BE ABLE TO LOWER at their June 17 meeting.

Meantime, policy wonks keep selling “policy” nonsense to the (monetary-ignorant) GenPop. this works because high schools don’t include the racist math called “coup de fouet” in their teacherings. If they did, that should have triggered you to recall that the phrase directly translates to “crack of the whip” and is used in French to describe the sharp, sudden effect or peak, such as in models describing phenomena like electrical discharge in batteries (e.g., the “coup de fouet” effect in lead-acid battery discharge curves).

This same concept applies in certain economic analyses, where Velocity at M2 can be dismissed as meaningless until you look up and realize “Ure hosed.”  Nearly there.

Weekly Unemployment Filings

Why a Rally?

Because America is “comfortably numb?”  You tell me: “2022 Monitoring the Future Study: Approximately 24.5% of college students reported using antidepressants, anti-anxiety drugs, or mood stabilizers, indicating higher prevalence in younger populations.”  And that’s before we get to seniors with their daily ETOH drips and delta-8s (OK, and 9’s).

Wrong answer?  Well…

US Court of International Trade blocks Trump from imposing global tariffs.  Two nominal republican appointees and an Obama pick were in the decision which will now head for the Supremes (not the one’s with Diana Ross, the one with Sotomayor, EK, and KBJ).  Given Barrett of late, and Roberts having dragged anchor, we call the appeal a 50-50.

This won’t stop DJT from moving policies all over the place, shaking them like a “fart in a hot skillet” but for now, Mr. Science is out: Elon Musk Exits Role in Trump Administration Amidst Corporate and Policy Challenges.

Leaving Trump to focus on core campaign promises:  Trump administration to crack down on Chinese visas, applicants, Rubio says. and making up his own crypto brand.  But, like we said on the Peoplenomics side this week, the idea of squandering energy to make up “secret numbers” which (in and of themselves do no work except enable drugs and human trafficking) we can’t get too thrilled about that.  Say, where are those Epstein files?

A Clausewitz Summer? 

The “headline-addict in Chief” will need baby sitting over summer, we fear.  Carl von Clausewitz’s primary focus in “On War” is on the nature of warfare; he didn’t explicitly use the phrase “economic war.” However, his core idea of war as a “continuation of politics by other means” can be interpreted to include economic aspects.

We see Trump becoming semi-desperate to get himself a Nobel Peace Prize.  (If Obama can, then….)

Which leaves our beloved short-order policy chef cooking economic pressure, trade restrictions,  and financial sanctions to pave a road to Stockholm.

Problem:  US-Iran Nuclear Talks Stall, Raising Risk Of Escalation And Sanctions.  On the stove?  Trump Says Iran Strike Would Be ‘Inappropriate’ for Israel Amid Talks | Miami Herald.

Problem: Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits Berlin as he seeks more support for Ukraine in the war against Russia.  Over at the stovetop: ‘Disappointed’ Trump sets new timeline for Russia-Ukraine cease-fire progress.  BUT, with the seasoning of “no range limits” this week and Taurus missile delivery to Ukraine “within reach” – German Chancellor, it seems “Chef” may have something up his sleave.  War this fall to reverse a sliding Velocity problem ahead?  RT: If Germany Allows Ukraine To Use Taurus Long-Range Cruise Missiles, Russia Will Strike Berlin – New Istanbul Talks Possible June 2.

All of which (we think) will lead to more of the TACO trade, which if you haven’t been read-in, can be sorted out reading Investors realize that ‘Trump always chickens out’ – Los Angeles Times.

US Dept. of Useless

Bitch and moan all you want but…

If you think ANYTHING digital is safe: Major data hack nabs 184M passwords for Google, Apple, more.

Don’t you love the idea of headless government? FOLLOW UP: Rogue Shadow Government Takes Shape.

And if you keep track of how :”Equality” ain’t too “equal” in this Orwellian barnyard: South Africa President Resists Trump’s Demand to Arrest Politician Leading Calls to Murder White Farmers.

Around the Ranch: Root Canal Day, Re-Org Plan?

Yep.  A punctual and pointed column today in part because I’m going to the root canal chair this morning.

But let me give you the “good news” (such as it was) delivered by my Harvard-trained endowalletist:  I didn’t know that pressure was mainly felt in one root while pair from hot and cold was felt in another in multi-root teeth.  Who knew?

(More important, who wants to pay $1,500 to learn it  unless you have to?)  “Moron  the morrow” on this – maybe the drugs will be good – no telling.

ReOrg?

Thinking about adding a page (with its own posts) about Old People Wisdom.  Been nagging at me because I hit a nerve (doing a lot of that lately, seems, hmm) talking about the screw-job of home insurance when you’re elderly.

There are all kinds of useful little bits of knowledge that we pick up late in life that fall into that “shit I wished I knew when I was younger” (SIWIKWIWY) category.  Might set up a submissions thingy for that.

Things like when to self-insure, or how to use tax-loss carryforwards to allow you guilt-free trading on those rare 100:1 odds that come along in markets now and then.

One for the Road?

G2’s house (when we get around to building it) may not have grid power.  Price of solar panels is way down right now. I ordered 10-more 325 watt panels (with 80 percent 25-year warranty) for under $70 a panel.  21.54 cents a watt? Hell yeah, let’s replace those last 180 watt panels from 2008 that are putting out under 100W now…

If the Big Beautiful Debt bomb explodes in just a certain way, and with the 30 percent renewable credit alive for the balance  of this year?  Effective cost of 15-cents a watt for source and new 10 kW class grid-tie (UL-1741) 48 volt systems around $1-kilo buck, it’s almost cheaper to go off-grid than on, out here in the back woods.

Even with shipping (about $275) from SanTanSolar.com it’s adding a few more “chips” to the “Will solar work in Nuclear Winter?” wager…

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

 

19 thoughts on “GDP, Trade Goes Law-fare, and it’s Root Canal Day”

  1. George,
    Good luck with the root canal. Few years back, I had a molar (which was crowned) “go bad”. Doctor I saw did the root canal through the crown. From the time I sat my rear in the chair, until I walked out the door; was just over 45 minutes. This guy was slick. Did not waste time. Did the numb down, root canal, temporary fill, and out the door to regular dentist to schedule for new permanent crown. That was 20 years ago. Most impressive procedure I have ever had. Hope your root canal goes as well.

    Reply

  2. “If the Big beautiful debt bomb explodes”

    Dont know G-dog, but something exploded in the UST markets recently. Last auction saw USA taken down majority of the issue – kiting checks&making up money(confidence game) never looked so scary – but hell we been doing it fo ages now, so why stop now?

    At the same Time you whine, bitch and karen about Bitcoin, as Ure own currency goes whirlpool down the drain – hard to reason.

    So lite on the virtue signaling and projection regards BITCOIN this AM, preoccupied and or distracted with infected teeth and rotten roots you must be. Oh well you have plenty of time to make up for Ure lack of stupid, unintelligible mutterings about Bitcoin this AM. In meantime UrbSurv can still cheer on israHELL Burning Paly Kids alive – better than Bambi burgers, Char-Broiled Paly Kids on a Stick – bet thats delish, have to ask orange jesus bout that, with or without Ketchup?

    Anyways, haven’t U cost People in Win$ with Ure Bitcoin NEGATIVITY enough already ?
    Hard to calculate as it is still accruing..bwahahahahahahahahaahah to the BANK .

    Roller Coaster-RHCPeppers
    https://youtu.be/aBkVV9xxCHE?si=pZvDEDvU4JyXgy5Y

    Reply

    • BCP : not sure where the defensive nature springs from but … it’s not a good look. I’m equally uncertain where the jungle drum meme chatter lives regarding US$ implosion, but it’s not in the world of math and reality. Odd given blockchain itself is entirely about math.

      “… It’s only fitting that a week of impressive coupon auctions would conclude with what was the strongest 7Y auction in years. …”

      — Zerohedge 052925 – source:
      https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stellar-7y-auction-sees-highest-stop-through-2022-record-low-dealers

      Personally, it seems to me there may be a future in crypto but the horse escaped the barn long ago on BTC. Possibly some significant while lesser token is worth a play. But. There’s always a butt. There is no intrinsic value, no backing at all and, hardly a store of value. Instead methinks the Coin and Gamma crowd are one and the same. Enjoy.

      “… Always with the negative waves, Moriarty, always with the negative waves …” Oddball, Kelley’s Heroes
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xyh-JpWdGmQ

      Lots of stops getting gunned by the look of it. Shirley one can’t make heads or tails of _any_ markets based on fundamentals. Speaking of, thanks for the charts George. Meanwhile, fade …

      Back to chill though home in balmy southern Michigan.
      Summer comes next, yes?
      Egor

      Reply

  3. Looks like DOGE was a bust. Who fell for it??? No cost savings direct deposits for us. Sigh.

    Now that the penny is shit-canned pricing schemes will change to $0.95. Gasoline will jump buy nickles now. Instead of the price rising one cent they get the extra four cents. That’s $0.68 on a 17 gallon fill.

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    • Wit Musk being a creation of the DoD, did you really think DOGE would go after the real BIG money ?

      Of course not, look here – while we crank up the DoDs” budget into the trillions with a T!, over there.
      Which of course is pure PUFFery, as the Russians have proved time and again our Weapons systems DO NOT WORK in theatre .
      Upgraded Patriots routinely get vaporized as soon as they fire up on board radar systems. Ruskies out take F-16s from hundreds of miles away with their fighters (SU-57 Felon) on weekly basis. Anti Air defense systems have been rendered useless. Tanks & Fighting vehicles dont last long either. It is a complete shit show for the UreOnazi’s of Ukraine. So what does the emotional genius do ? He doubled down on Scheisse weapons systems. Makes you think they are valuable, when in fact they dont work very well, and therefore dam near worthless.

      Trump World – Shiny and new on outside, FULL of Scheisse on the inside…Lets GO TACO in 28 ! buckbuckbuckBUCKGOCK!

      ChickenScheisse – https://youtu.be/rSjJwPI3V-w?si=JpLIKwQXzEa65Tbl

      Reply

    • Not how it happens here Canada) after Flaherty as Minister of Finance ended penny production in 2012. At the till, round up / down depends on which way is closer. Card payments debit or credit still to the penny.
      Merchants control pricing.

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    • Early times irt: outcome of DOGE. My guess is initial success might have multiplied more had everyone agreed to play along. TBD how Congress acts to codify some administrative observations. It was worth the attempt and has not been shuttered though lightning rod Musk has stepped away.

      $160,000,000,000

      It’s ^ thought insignificant. That’s how you submerge and sink (OBSCON).

      $37,000,000,000,000

      https://www.usdebtclock.org/

      Tick tock.
      Egor

      Reply

    • Regarding gas prices, probably not. We don’t have a .1 cent coin and never did, but every gas station has gas priced with an additional .9 cents in the price per gallon. The pumps are already set up for it and nobody wants to change anything without a profit motive. If you end up with an odd penny or two, the gas station will just round up, or down if they like you. The credit card payment systems can still handle virtual pennies.

      Reply

  4. Lol lol lol..A throw away society !!
    I just learned something.. about my fancy coffee. maker.. I had just got done servicing it .. not even four months old..but just past the warranty period.. it shuts down..still pumps water .. but nothing heats up.. checking with videos one made the comment that this particular unit has a 250 pot countdown chip.. same thing with AED’s lol lol they to have a countdown chip.. ti.e to bring down the percolator..
    one of the best coffee pots I had was called the barista.. it lasted almost three years.. then the coffee maker from work. after I got sick they called several months later and asked if I wanted the pot I took care of..we had that almost twenty years.. they quit making parts for it..

    Reply

  6. Another thing about Windows update. For example I’ve disabled Location Services. After the PC updates even though I have updates disabled and tweaked away in the registry, Location Services will be re-enabled.

    Computer fatigue doing and redoing.

    We don’t want to be a dick about it but why can’t Bill Gates get prostate cancer over Joe Biden?

    Reply

    • Wouldn’t do any good. “The Minions” will continue ad nauseum. I run Win7 on my ham shack computer. Allegedly not supported by MS anymore. But still, every month or two, I get the notice to not shut down the computer as updates are in progress! Why update software they ‘no longer support’?? Maybe I don’t want to know. It’s still working.

      Reply

      • Long story short my Win7 box had a HDD failure and I didn’t get the Win7 CD when I purchased that PC so I’m SOL with Win 11 on this new PC. (I got all the files I needed from the old HDD using Tails.)

        Back to the Win 11 updates – by extension this last MS Win 11 update forced my Bluestacks into an update which resulted in my Android apps no longer working…. I couldn’t log into Google Play to fix the Apps because GP has wanted to re-verify my cell by text but that phone was a burner and is long gone …. so to access Google Play most recently I bought a replacement burner phone to create a new Google Play account, which worked but the Apps I need don’t work on Bluestacks 5 and I can’t side install the old ones. Sigh.

        And the topper is I didn’t get a Win 11 CD with this PC because MS thinks I want to back-up everything to the Cloud for easy reinstall on the next PC after this one fails.

        Pox on Gates’ prostate!

        Where is Saul? We need to call.

        Reply

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