The Future is sometimes terribly easy to see. But, when you look at it square-on, it can be really ugly. As a result, faced with a declining set of prospects of achieve “health, wealth, and happiness” people turn their faces. Averting their gaze is what America is doing a lot of right now.
Tomorrow, an interesting piece on the Peoplenomics side of the house. As we wildly consider what life will be like in 2030. It’s not particularly pretty. But, it’s a useful exercise since it begins to inform present-day actions.
Spending, personal planning, even commitment to health and things like exercise, can all be easily-changed, though, once you attempt to write down your personal future. It’s been an eye-opener for me in a useful way.
The Future On Rails
Another item on the docket tomorrow will be a bit deeper discussion of the Federal Reserve’s (Bernanke-inspired) L4L – lower for longer – response to collapsing markets.
In the latest confessional posted after the close last night, we see the Fed is whipping out M1 at a rate that will roughly double the money supply by next March.
While this wild spree of paper-making seems like a good thing – since it has kept Depression at bay for now – we think there has been a serious miscalculation made by the Fed which bears some deep pondering.
You see, in a normal economy (whatever that is), if you double the money supply, you’d have a semi-predictable doubling of prices to follow. But, what I haven’t seen a Fed paper on (yet!) is the likely impact of BOTH a massive upward bump in the money supply with both a concurrent decline in the number of people employed AND a massive decrease in high-consumption lifestyles. Down-scaling sucks, but that’s the direction of sustainability.
We can see some of the evidence, already. Gold is up, silver’s up, oil’s up, and so forth. Going up quickly are “all things imported” and a good bit of what’s made here. Which pivots us into the Producer Prices report just issued by the Labor Department…
What? You were expecting something else? With money being made-up all over the place? People social distancing?
“The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.2 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This decrease followed a 0.4-percent increase in May and a 1.3-percent decline in April. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved down 0.8 percent for the 12 months ended in June.
In June, the decrease in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.3-percent decline in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods rose 0.2 percent.
Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 0.3 percent in June, the largest increase since a 0.3-percent rise in January. For the 12 months ended in June, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services edged down 0.1 percent.”
In a way this is good news for the Fed – as long as prices are contained, print, printg, and print some more. Except not for you and me…
This Ripples into Markets
Is the “third time a charm?” Take a little explaining, but follow along as you’ll find this useful. Especially with Dow futures down 174 at click time.
Before the data came out, the markets were discounting the future a bit. Our Aggregate Index work revealed that despite hype and hoopla, the market has remained (so far) unable to peek and hold above overhead resistance on the right side of this chart:
One of those “old axiom” among traders is that if a market can’t break above resistance and hold there) then a major decline can follow. (Relax – this isn’t investment advice!)
What would be very nice to see would be the market have a strong finish into the close today and then fall on its ass Monday.
There are uncountable moving parts to all this – left field events and such – but it looks like one way the future could “be on rails” since the Fed’s M1 was only up a tiny amount this week.
Still, too early for “election jitters” to hit the market. We look for that a month from now. As one of the more common “date ranges” for the annual high to come it would be from the third week of August to the second week of September. After that, if you want to be bullish on America’s future (which stocks are a weak proxy for) have at it.
We plan to be under the bed with the dust bunnies this fall because we can’t make out a “happy ending” to a great deal of what “passes for news” in times ahead.
Double Down on Warming?
Climate hysteria or good science? Take some reading time and devote it to the paper “Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude.” If you’re not interested yet, read through the paper’s abstract because if correct, global warming concerns might be set to reignite:
“The Sun exhibits a well-observed modulation in the number of sunspots over a period of about 11 years. From the dawn of modern observational astronomy sunspots have presented a challenge to understanding–their quasi-periodic variation in number, ?rst noted160-years ago, stimulates community-wide interest to this day. A large number of techniques are able to explain the temporal landmarks, (geometric) shape, and amplitude of sunspot “cycles,” however forecasting these features accurately in advance remains elusive. Recent observationally-motivated studies have illustrated a relationship between the Sun’s 22-year (Hale) magnetic cycle and the production of the sunspot cycle landmarks and patterns, but not the amplitude of the cycle. Using (discrete) Hilbert transforms on 270 years of (monthly) sunspot numbers to robustly identify the so-called “termination” events, landmarks marking the start and end of sunspot and magnetic activity cycles, we extract a relationship between the temporal spacing of terminators and the magnitude of sunspot cycles. Given this relationship and our prediction of a terminator event in 2020, we deduce that sunspot cycle 25 will have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began. This outcome would be in stark contrast to the community consensus estimate of sunspot cycle 25 magnitude.”
What makes the paper so interesting is that on the high-end of this forecast, a solar peak exhibiting more than 305 sunspots is possible. And the outlook is in stark contrast to what may be turning into a weak “legacy consensus” that no, we could be in a period of solar quiescence on a scale similar to the Maunder minimum.
Jury’s Still Out
A thoughtful read has us keeping both doors open and looking for additional inputs. Can five scientists be right? Or, are they falling victim to one of the oldest problems in financial technical analysis?
Which you can encapsulate this way: If you are in pattern-seeking mode and you have an unlimited number of math models you can test fit, eventually you WILL find one that fits. (*The five may be this far along.)
But, as in financial markets, the ultimate “Ground Truth” is that “past performance is no indicator of future results.”
Oh, and the more complicated the “fitment methodology” the more prone it seems to be to failure.
Still, worth keeping an eye one it. Perhaps, like a broken clock, Al Gore may be right. Once a century. Still, that’s enough to build a $300-million dollar fortune, if you get in with the right crowd.
In the Shorts
BOHICA, brothers and sisters!~
Has someone read the Microsoft book on beta testing on the public? Spotify Experiencing Global Outage; 1000s Of Users Report App Crashing Immediately After Launch.
Oh-oh…leading edge of Climate Hysteria II (CH2) sensed in “Relentless heat wave to bake the U.S. for “multiple weeks” Grown-ups in the room will recognize this event as “Summer.”
President Bluster’s tax returns can be called by a Court, but not by Congress. Notwithstanding, the NY Times is salivating at their release in “Trump’s Taxes May Be Released — Eventually.” Around here, it’s an article of faith that Trump has overstated his income by about the same degree a used car salesperson overstates mileage estimates. OK, more then….
What???? No Foundation??? Chelsea Clinton is reportedly in the ‘very early stages’ of forming her own venture capital firm.
Ratting Out Your Neighbors gets traction on a second front: Uncle Sam wants you! To report stimulus fraud. What’s interesting is that with all the U.S. criticism of China’s “tattle-tale” system, we’re going down the same (app development) path toward social scoring. You did call in all the people you knew who didn’t mask-up, didn’t you, comrade?
Guess we’ll have to take hamster steaks off the dinner menu: Seems the European hamster added to ‘critically endangered’ list. It was fine while it lasted; a kind of ultimate portion-control.
You do know that according to a new study Rodents feel peer-pressure to be helpful, right?
POTlitics in Illinois continue to bring surprises as Illinois social equity program flawed, advocates say, but it’s best in cannabis industry so far, reports the MJBD.
Useful hints on investing in the ganj in The Motley Fool’s 3 Ways to Collect a Dividend With Marijuana Stocks. Can’t grow or smoke in Texas, but a stock’s a stock, right?
As long as we’re throwing money around, see the NASDAQ.com website about the “yeller dog” that Bit-crazies love to hate: The Gold Rally May Have Just Begun: 5 Top Picks to Tap It. Meanwhile, digital tulips are $9,164 a click.
And yes, silver is right behind gold says here: Silver Could Be At The Very Beginning Of A Monster Move Higher.
Since it’s time to do the every few months check-up, which will have to be an in-person for a blood draw, we still see a major state-change in how health services are delivered amping up.
Anyone got a USB potassium-level sensor in the market, yet? Entrepreneur article worth a look is Opportunity in Adversity: Telemedicine-Watershed Moment? High-level stuff. I want a piece of the telemedicine remote chemistry instrumentation market. (TMRCI)
One other virus note: Keep an eye on the pseudo-drama called “Where will the GOP Convention Be?” Relevant now that a Judge refuses to order Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner to allow Texas GOP convention.
12.3 million “19” cases and counting. (Republican’s have trouble with the math of viruses.) Our updated forecast numbers for Labor Day and Thanksgiving will be on the Peoplenomics.com site tomorrow.
(With hamster sausage off the menu, no telling what breakfast will be today…)
Write when you get rich,