Longer than normal Peoplenomics podcast tomorrow.  Today, though, it’s time to get really tactical in your prepping for Pandemic.  This isn’t medical advice.  Just what seems like common sense when 30-million 42-million people are now under travel restrictions and the number of cases of the novel corona virus is over a dozen in the US.

Virus Event Monitoring

You can watch the news channels, but for the “official storyline” see the CDC website here:

That said, there have been a lot of claims on the web of a major cover-up (example report) so when we hear “cover-up” we get a bit nervous.

To be sure, there is  some use for reports of people falling down and dying on the streets of Wuhan, and there’s value to knowing that the lockdown of China’s other cities may have come too late.  This one is out of the bag, almost certainly.

There’s a likely case of the Wuhan virus here in Texas; a student who’d been in Wuhan.  As the  NY Times reports here, we’re coming up on two dozen suspected cases under surveillance in the country, now.

Medical Aspects

Officially, it’s 2019-nCoV.  As  NPR reported:

“The World Health Organization’s Emergency Committee on the coronavirus said in a Jan. 22 news conference that nearly three-quarters of cases have been in people over age 40 and that “cases who died — many had significant underlying conditions” like cardiovascular disease and diabetes. But there are confirmed cases in otherwise healthy, young individuals..”

Thus, this virus is similar to SARS, Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome, which works like this according to CDC:

“In general, SARS begins with a high fever (temperature greater than 100.4°F [>38.0°C]). Other symptoms may include headache, an overall feeling of discomfort, and body aches. Some people also have mild respiratory symptoms at the outset. About 10 percent to 20 percent of patients have diarrhea. After 2 to 7 days, SARS patients may develop a dry cough. Most patients develop pneumonia.”

There’s are also similarities to MERS, the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome:

“Most people confirmed to have MERS-CoV infection have had severe respiratory illness with symptoms of:

    • fever
    • cough
    • shortness of breath
    • Some people also had diarrhea and nausea/vomiting.

For many people with MERS, more severe complications followed, such as pneumonia and kidney failure. About 3 or 4 out of every 10 people reported with MERS have died. Most of the people who died had a pre-existing medical condition that weakened their immune system, or an underlying medical condition that hadn’t yet been discovered. Medical conditions sometimes weaken people’s immune systems and make them more likely to get sick or have severe illness.

Pre-existing conditions among people who got MERS have included

    • diabetes
    • cancer
    • chronic lung disease
    • chronic heart disease
    • chronic kidney disease
    • Some infected people had mild symptoms (such as cold-like symptoms) or no symptoms at all.”

Transmission Aspects

We don’t need to get paranoid, but this point of this morning’s discussion is to begin to “dust-off” your worst-case plans.  This may turn into a “no biggie” but remember the SARS cases and how the ratcheting up for that worked?

With the general picture of a “super bad cold” that can kill people with compromised immune systems, we can then begin thinking about avoidance of exposure.  This distills down to avoidance of exposure on the one hand, and isolation/disinfection.

Exposure Risk:  Seems pretty obvious:  Wearing an N-95 or better an N-100 mask may reduce the risk of exposure to aerosolized particles.

Say a person coughs on a bus or airplane:  N-100 masks  seem like a good deterrent, but there are lots of other mucosal exposure sites:  Your eyes, for example.

However, the best tactic, though not available to many, is avoidance of contact with other humans.  To do this?  Long list of checkoffs to consider:

  • No handshakes, even hugs might be risky.
  • Avoid areas where people assemble (concerts, airports, sporting events,. and the like.  Even church gatherings could be transmission sites.
  • Sit by yourself when possible.
  • Avoid public restroom use.  When needed, for females what Elaine calls “the high over” and for men and women, treat everything in public as “infected.”  Especially things you’d take for granted such as the door-opening push panels.  Crap at home if you can.
  • If you stopped using those alcohol wipes on grocery carts, time to get back in  that habit.
  • Remember Elaine and I recently set up a couple of  on-line shopping accounts for groceries and such.  The beauty of these is no real human-human contact.  Stay in your car while the store personnel load into the trunk.  Reducing  direct exposure risk dramatically.

Disinfection:

OK, you’ve limited your exposure to people – great!  But now you have a trunk full of groceries…what to do there, eh?

The basic tool of disinfection is handle all of your inbound products as though they were “hot” too.  Use a strong solution of household bleach to wipe everything down before it gets into the home.  Like out on a covered porch, and so forth.

We began making the transition to frozen veggies, when we set up the online grocery shopping, and boy, is that a great thing!  Disinfecting fresh fruits and veggies is a hell of a lot tougher than Clorox solution dunking of bags and then popping them into the freezer!  Bonus:  Since they are then microwaved for 4-6 minutes before eating, that vector is pretty well slammed shut.

The CDC has a very good write-up on how to dilute regular, unscented household bleach for disinfection over here.  This was put up on the web in the wake of many flood episodes, but while kills bugs in floodwater also likely kills novel corona virus, too.  Just to be sure, we plan to “pour a little extra” when comes time to dilute with water.

The key thing to remember up front is that if we get “cases in the wild” in the U.S. your best lines of external defense will be avoidance of contact along with sanitizing practices.  Rubber gloves, Clorox and avoidance are likely – as a group – to reduce risks a lot.

Internal Medicine: We’re paying particular attention to the reports that this outbreak can be fatal to people with pre-existing conditions.  Even if you don’t have pre-existing conditions, there are some personal health tactics that are “unlikely to harm.”  Among these:

It should go without saying that:

  • Alcohol use reduces the body’s resistance and recovery ability.
  • Vaping is still smoking and the last thing your lungs need…

I don’t mean to go on and on about this, but some common sense is useable in here. This isn’t medical advise, but we figure it can’t hurt.

The odds of you dying are extremely low.  Yet, these can be hedged with a box of 100 nitrile gloves, a jug of un scented bleach, some N-100 masks (when out of the home) and buying food-stuffs that you bake or ‘wave at home, and setting up online shopping to avoid people contact in busy places like grocery stores.

Our next house guest will be coming down in April, but that won’t “lock” until we get a better handle on the impact of these little bugs on the formerly semi-normal world.

Just in, CBS rolling with More coronavirus cases in U.S.

Impeachment Below the Fold

The arrival of the novel virus presents a unique opportunity to sort out your media sources by  intent, the way I think of things.  See the NY Post  report that “Rudy Giuliani threatens to go public with Biden corruption allegations “ for grins and giggles.  You want witnesses?  LOL.

[If your media sources have insisted on leading with the impeachment story, seems to me they are more interested in monetizing Trump-hate, than providing useful news you can use – like how to make a plan for dealing with the virus which is already in the U.S.  Hmmm…make money on Trump-hate, or fear monger on virus…]

BREXIT: Stage Right

Frequent contributor  warhammer has some insights into Post-Davos world in the year-ahead:

Globalist liberals are licking their open, oozing Brexit wounds.  Most will now likely refocus on deconstructing Trump and his doctrine of American exceptionalism.  But Trump has an ally on his Atlantic flank with the wild-haired British PM now that the Parliament formally approving the will of the people.

A more serious issue may have just popped up on the radar – that is, how might Russia, China and/or Iran attempt to exploit the widening crack in European unity?  And with the EU showing cracks, with Trump endlessly preoccupied by the vacuous impeachment trial, strategic adversaries are no doubt contemplating when and where they can make their best move.  My bet is sooner rather than later.”

Don’t you just hate it when the serfs get uppity?

Markets Up, But…

In the futures, looked like a positive day ahead.  Dow futures +74 at 80-minutes out.

However, one cloud we can see forming:  The Fed, which until this week’s report had been jamming up M1 money creation at the double-digit rate (M1, 90-day annualized), has now dropped it to a 7.7% annualized print rate.  Rut-roh Scoobie.  We may shortly be able to compare “coming off cash” to “coming off smack.”

This morning the repo deals amounted to  $ 55.3 -billion.  When the rolling-over sizes begin to significantly decline, look for the market to pull back accordingly.

Newsable and Useable

Hmmm…how many times have I told you that gender is a financialization drive?  We cite as latest evidence  “Goldman Sachs introduces its own gender quota for IPOs.”  Do bankers get political correctness disease, or just lever it?

Ready for a 5G transmitter in front of your home?  Go read 5G is supposed to be the future. But here’s what it’s like today. Community is about to be blind-sided, as we see it.  Cells every 200-300 feet???

Let’s Make a Deal” department:  “Bayer may pay $10 billion to settle Roundup cancer cases from its Monsanto deal.”  What becomes interesting is to look ahead wondering whether the link to soy causing long-term changes in the brain is linked to treated seeds…

And the integrity of elections continues under attack as Seattle area election puts mobile, online voting to its first big test in the U.S.

On that note, go have a grand weekend and don’t forget to come by Monday.  Remember, failing to plan is planning to fail.

Write when you get rich,

george@ure.net