Financial Roulette: Rally to Resume?

The most significant thing on this agenda today is Job numbers.

As always, there is a hype number and there are real numbers.  Here’s the key part of the actual data to look at:

Since I’ve been writing “news” for half a century now, here’s how an honest press release would read based on the highlighted data:

“The ACTUAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE WORKING in America dropped again this month  – and by 103,000 in the figures out today.  Even more amazing is that almost half a million people left the workforce. You see that mirrored in the 646-thousand increase in “not in the workforce.” Thanks to this Rapture-like event, the unemployment rate was jiggered (for political motives) down to keep the hype about a low unemployment alive.  This should set off the stock rally into August being predicted by nutter George Ure.  If, like Ure, you look at the 281-thousand jobs “estimated into existence” in the CES Birth-Death model, you too might come to question the economic meth (or more properly the ludicrous economic propositions) being bandied about in this report.”

Good luck finding such top-line clarity:  The fairy-tale hype sheet (press release) accompanying the data actually goes like this:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in April, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

(See?  They don’t mention 281-thou were “estimated” and the term gig economy is conspicuously absent…  but let’s keep going.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in April, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.”

We aren’t overly impressed.

What does impress us about the market is that in the trading session yesterday, we came down (inter session) to below the trend lines we laid out for our premium content subscribers Wednesday.  Love it when a plan comes together.

Still, cash is a nice place to be while the noisy markets fill in some voids.  We could be 2-hours to 3-months from a serious downturn.  So no point getting too bullish, too quickly.

Trade and Retail

…are also out this morning.  Which is why I feel more like a press release clipper than money-oriented journo.

Advance International Trade in Goods The international trade deficit was $71.4 billion in March, up $0.5 billion from $70.9 billion in February. Exports of goods for March were $140.3 billion, $1.4 billion more than February exports. Imports of goods for March were $211.7 billion, $2.0 billion more than February imports.

Advance Wholesale Inventories Wholesale inventories for March, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $668.2 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.2 percent)* from February 2019, and were up 6.4 percent (±1.2 percent) from March 2018. The January 2019 to February 2019 percentage change was revised from up 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)* to up 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)*.

Advance Retail Inventories Retail inventories for March, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $657.3 billion, down 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent) from February 2019, and were up 4.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from March 2018. The January 2019 to February 2019 percentage change was revised from up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent) to up 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)*.

Market should pop up over 120 at the open of the Dow based on post-data futures pricing.

Meander Through “News Noise”

Ah, let’s see who’s yelling fire on the crowded planet today, shall we?

Trump says he won’t let former White House counsel testify to Congress.  As a result, Dems poised to hold AG in contempt.  Hopeless theatrics… can we get back to solving some of America’s problems (like the border and trade), please?

Alt version: Trump tells Dems ‘It’s done,’ says McGahn won’t testify; Ukraine embassy says DNC operative sought Trump info.  Wait…did the DNC pay said operative?  Where’s the damn  Hillary probe?

Rep. Tom Rice: Dem demand to see Trump tax returns is dishonest political ploy threatening privacy of us all.  But since when does that matter to those who would dictate and leech off of all?

Almost like follow up to our Trumpville comments of Thursday, Inside tent cities, the largest U.S. attempt to manage record flow of migrants.  So far, we haven’t seen the label-change to blame the national GOP, but locally failing socialists will figure it out eventually.

Sanctuary City Reality: Downtown Los Angeles residents demand increased foot patrols in response to assaults, drugs.

Speaking of loonie and lefties:  SecState Mike Pompeo takes on ultra-lib Ilhan Omar for trying to blame the US for the failure of the socialist scrap heap formerly called Venezuela.  Notice how the socialists (communist lites) never own their own results and outcomes?  It’s always someone else’s fault.

Give Sick People the bird dept: Mystery poisonings of 7 bald eagles prompt $10G reward offer in Maryland.

Jeff Bezos, the richest man in the world is about to get even richer.  Related: Buffett says Berkshire Hathaway, finally, has invested in CNBC.

Does it matter that Scientists may have detected neutron star, black hole collision?  No, only if you’re the insurance carrier…

And if you think the rich are receive preference in collage admissions, this NY Times story Admissions Scandal: When ‘Hard Work’ (Plus $6.5 Million) Helps Get You Into Stanford won’t disappoint.

One other damn good Times business story: Puerto Rico Seeks to Have $9 Billion in Debt Ruled Unconstitutional.  Which gets to the heart of when did “the people” get a chance to review (and reject?) the wheeler-dealers who were protecting their own profits and best interests?

Passings: Peter Mayhew, Chewbacca in ‘Star Wars,’ dies at 74.

Short column today, but this is the stuff that really matters.  We could give a rip about the “food-fights” in DC.  Off to work on Peoplenomics for this weekend.

There are, you see, three worlds:  The crazy one full of fake media consensus.  The equally nutty #mee-too world of social.  And then there’s the cash in the data-driven world.  Since we can’t spend “news” and “fame” isn’t taken at Denny’s, we are left with a simple job of “chasing the bags” (of money) as the only sensible thing to do.

As my boss from back in the airline days held:  “We don’t have ANY problems more revenue won’t fix.”

28 thoughts on “Financial Roulette: Rally to Resume?”

  1. I had a “pay attention to me” dream last night. The USA began to collapse and as it fell, it took Japan down with it. It was not a sudden, complete collapse, but a series of small shocks, like earthquakes, that eventually reduced it to a much smaller version of itself.

    We will just have to wait and see if this was predictive. I suppose it could have been more literal and is about earthquakes on the Pacific rim.

    • We are too close to the trees to see if the back side of the forest is falling into a sinkhole. We just sense the distant rumble and know that something ill this way comes. That sort of talk is slowly picking up above the normal random background chatter. Natural catastrophes sometimes beget social and economic downfalls.

      This is an interesting historical article related to G____’s naming or maybe calling the depression 2:

  2. Have to wonder why anyone would put forth all the charts and propaganda reports put out by the government,the latest GDP comes to mind when I read that the REAL GDP was only a tiny percentage of what the lol government figures are..

    Then of course we have Venezuela with all that beautiful oil just waiting for some American company or corporation to suck it up, and the three stooges can’t seem to understand why Venezuela and its people have different idea’s about their own natural resources, as they huff and puff and tries to blow their house down.Meanwhile up in sin city we have the R’s probing the D’s and the D’s probing the R’s in some strange type of orgy or the other,or perhaps its some kind of strange mating ritual for its coming on that time again for the games to begin,the dog and pony show known as elections,I wonder what the rallying call will be this trip around as they lie and pander to the voters,while the election has already been decided long before election day.!!!

    • Robert, you gotta remember that George is an optimist.

      Americans all know what this website says either consciously or subconsciously, and it stresses the hell out of them. It’s the rats on a sinking ship phenomenon. It is why the middle class is disappearing and will continue to do so.

      It’s why I say that if you are not using chemicals to cope with the toxic lies of the American culture you really have no idea what is happening in the country. For example, every word you have heard of Trump collusion with Russia was a lie, plain and simple.

      Recently I researched drug usage in the USA, psychiatric drugs, alcoholism, marijuana, street drugs, etc. and the percentages added up to an astounding 130%, so I guess some folks are double dipping. This did not include electronic addictions like porn and gaming and social media. Nor did it include health medications. Just the stuff that numbs you out so you can cope.

      • You forget, there is a core of US Americans who do care & will keep the country upright. Check our history: In 2016 Donald Trump was elected President to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. Again Check history: Japan attacked the USA because they thought we were soft. But they looked at the West Coast full of meatheads directly across the Pacific, when they should have been looking at the East Coast.

      • Wese know what is happening to this country. Many don’t indulge or escape reality. But, you have escaped, haven’t you? Love the 4.2 billion IMF loan to Ecuador; see how that sits wid ya when they come gun running for their moulah in the form of national aSSets.

      • “”It is why the middle class is disappearing and will continue to do so.””

        E/E….The middle class is gone.. with one in three dependent on social programs.. it’s now the Haves and the Have Nots

  3. As my boss from back in the airline days held: “We don’t have ANY problems more revenue won’t fix.” If Only! Perhaps within the limited sphere of business.

    There are problems that money won’t address, but it never hurts to have an excess of it. That problem, at least is soluble. I’ve yet to meet a loving couple in good health that were born 150 years ago.

    • Why would they admit it? As we recently discussed (*here or on PN) immortality is a bitch financially. Blows up everything and cannot be allowed!

  4. We met Mayhew at a con in a local city. It was the first one ever for me and my kids, so we didn’t expect the extra costs, and didn’t even know he was there. When my then 6 year old son realized who Mayhew was, he begged for a signed picture and wouldn’t leave Mayhew’s table until he got to talk with him. (My son, was a Cars fanatic ever since he could watch tv, and after the bazillionth time of watching it, I got him turned into an original trilogy Star Wars fan.) Well, we talked with him, but had to leave without a momento, until a bit later, someone ran up to us with a keepsake for my son. The guy had a huge soft spot for little kids. Ones who doubly loved the Chewbacca character made his day, too.

    Sure, this isn’t real news for alot of people, but for a now 11 year old kid, who distinctly remembers placing tiny hands on the plate sized ones of Mayhew and talking quietly about his favorite movie moments, it meant something. He got to see and talk to the real person behind the movie magic, and got a better appreciation for people who do thew work.

  5. “So no point in getting too bullish too early”. George, I can’t remember you ever being bullish.?

  6. George – we need a new National Holiday, one that will address a pressing need/problem on our southern border. I would like to propose National-Shoot-A-Can-Day. Thats right an official day off for sportsmen and sportswomen to go down to southern border and enjoy a day of “live fire” target practice. Would need to impose some sort of limit on amount of “cans” U can shoot per US Citizens, some thing like 5 per person.
    Perhaps a petition to the WH, or just an executive order..can POTUS declare new nat. holiday thru exec order?
    Anyway this new “sportsmans” holiday could go a long way in solving the “soft war” migration problem on our southern border. Would also help get people to put down the game controllers and get up off their fat asses. Problems solved with this Solution: Obesity, Migration on Southern Border, Sharpen Shooting skills of public in preparation for CV2 coming to a theater near you..soonly.
    Kill em now is cheaper program, easier, less messy, and far more entertaining than waiting for a crime to be committed, trial, lib judge release, re committ crime, trial, prision/send back.
    Kill em now; $.95 per round AC300Blackout or 6.5 Grendel,(reach out & touch someone), thrill & excitement of hostile fire, Border Patrol gets day off while US Citizens do their job for them – win,win, win..unless U R a can.

    • We cannot and do not believe in taking the lives of others. No, what we need is a fence and say, why don’t we bus ’em to those FEMA camps and let them be the “free sanctuaries?”

  7. George, one man’s theatrics is another man’s crime wave. And golly gee, not much by you about Republican Mueller actually complaining (and shockingly in writing) that Barr misrepresented his report. Just can’t bring yourself to say ‘political hack?’

    And as for your sweet call for getting back to solving problems like border and trade, didn’t we already solve the trade problems — tariffs and $12 billion in welfare for farmers.

    And when the Conservatives had complete control of the Gov’t, did they use their juice to push through Immigration Reform with a Wall?
    Or did they use their juice to push through Tax Cuts with 83% (i.e., $1.74 trillion, all borrowed) going to the Upper 1%?

    You remember immigration, right? The Base’s #1 issue. You recall the national debt, right? The Conservative’s supposed #1 issue. You recall devaluing the US dollar, right? Your seemingly #1 issue.

    Best, Mike.

    • I will post maps to your back yard for illegal immigrants, if you’d like.Think how much glory your could garner as a liberal figurehead!

    • Barr had Mueller read/edit his summary before he submitted it to Congress. Mueller had no issue or dispute with the released summary. His complaint was with the way the “Press” and certain members of Congress spun Barr’s summary of his work.

      Didn’t know the Koz was still around. Perhaps you should expand your reading list beyond socialist propaganda sites…?

  8. I haven’t been able to find anything to account for the earthquake blues but something must of happened. Seemed very strong.

  9. Hey George, as an aside, I think your pal G. A. Stewart may have slipped a mental disk or two. The latest on his website is genuinely implying that Michelle Obama is transgendered. (complete with a few pictures – That’s a new one on me. I’ve been enjoying what he has had on offer up until now but that just beggars belief. Another meltdown like Cl? Just thought you might want to know.

    • And the Globetards mock the Flattards about NASA keeping Flat Earth secret.

      If Michele is a transgender Bush and Trump must be in on the conspiracy. We can forgive Bush for Iraq and Trump for not jailing Hillary or “erasing the lines” but concealing a transgender means the entire government is run by entities completely separate from us.

      • OoWS…..
        Its roundish..
        The kids in the space station regularly share what they see or what the camera on their suits observes..I just love those guys great organization. Great mission..super nice bunch and they are kid and family friendly..
        I also seen other things in years past that show the earth..

      • “the entire government is run by entities ”

        The description entities never entered my thoughts at all.
        There’s a lot of words that come to mind but entities..nope not once..

  10. The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast was posted this afternoon, and is showing two Elliott Wave analysis scenarios possible for the end of this market cycle. One scenario shows an intermediate top with a significant sell-off followed by the final top a year or two off, and the second reading, shows the final top ending later this year. All of Prechter’s current scenarios show limited head room in any scenario, meaning he believes we will see the market top for our lifetimes at levels not too far above the current valuations. I have found most of the problems with Prechter’s analysis to be from timing, not from lack of understanding of market cycle mechanisms, and not from delusional thought processes, so you have to take his work seriously, even if you know his timing will be off, sometimes by a lot.

    I don’t make trades based on input from any one source, and neither should you. I would characterize my last statement as life experience, not financial advice. You have to time your own trades, because if you think some talking head can do that for you, you aren’t understanding how things work. Risk levels in equities are going up.

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