The most significant thing on this agenda today is Job numbers.
As always, there is a hype number and there are real numbers. Here’s the key part of the actual data to look at:
Since I’ve been writing “news” for half a century now, here’s how an honest press release would read based on the highlighted data:
“The ACTUAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE WORKING in America dropped again this month – and by 103,000 in the figures out today. Even more amazing is that almost half a million people left the workforce. You see that mirrored in the 646-thousand increase in “not in the workforce.” Thanks to this Rapture-like event, the unemployment rate was jiggered (for political motives) down to keep the hype about a low unemployment alive. This should set off the stock rally into August being predicted by nutter George Ure. If, like Ure, you look at the 281-thousand jobs “estimated into existence” in the CES Birth-Death model, you too might come to question the economic meth (or more properly the ludicrous economic propositions) being bandied about in this report.”
Good luck finding such top-line clarity: The fairy-tale hype sheet (press release) accompanying the data actually goes like this:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in April, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
(See? They don’t mention 281-thou were “estimated” and the term gig economy is conspicuously absent… but let’s keep going.
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in April, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.”
We aren’t overly impressed.
What does impress us about the market is that in the trading session yesterday, we came down (inter session) to below the trend lines we laid out for our Peoplenomics.com premium content subscribers Wednesday. Love it when a plan comes together.
Still, cash is a nice place to be while the noisy markets fill in some voids. We could be 2-hours to 3-months from a serious downturn. So no point getting too bullish, too quickly.
Trade and Retail
…are also out this morning. Which is why I feel more like a press release clipper than money-oriented journo.
Advance International Trade in Goods The international trade deficit was $71.4 billion in March, up $0.5 billion from $70.9 billion in February. Exports of goods for March were $140.3 billion, $1.4 billion more than February exports. Imports of goods for March were $211.7 billion, $2.0 billion more than February imports.
Advance Wholesale Inventories Wholesale inventories for March, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $668.2 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.2 percent)* from February 2019, and were up 6.4 percent (±1.2 percent) from March 2018. The January 2019 to February 2019 percentage change was revised from up 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)* to up 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)*.
Advance Retail Inventories Retail inventories for March, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $657.3 billion, down 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent) from February 2019, and were up 4.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from March 2018. The January 2019 to February 2019 percentage change was revised from up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent) to up 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)*.
Market should pop up over 120 at the open of the Dow based on post-data futures pricing.
Meander Through “News Noise”
Ah, let’s see who’s yelling fire on the crowded planet today, shall we?
Trump says he won’t let former White House counsel testify to Congress. As a result, Dems poised to hold AG in contempt. Hopeless theatrics… can we get back to solving some of America’s problems (like the border and trade), please?
Alt version: Trump tells Dems ‘It’s done,’ says McGahn won’t testify; Ukraine embassy says DNC operative sought Trump info. Wait…did the DNC pay said operative? Where’s the damn Hillary probe?
Rep. Tom Rice: Dem demand to see Trump tax returns is dishonest political ploy threatening privacy of us all. But since when does that matter to those who would dictate and leech off of all?
Almost like follow up to our Trumpville comments of Thursday, Inside tent cities, the largest U.S. attempt to manage record flow of migrants. So far, we haven’t seen the label-change to blame the national GOP, but locally failing socialists will figure it out eventually.
Sanctuary City Reality: Downtown Los Angeles residents demand increased foot patrols in response to assaults, drugs.
Speaking of loonie and lefties: SecState Mike Pompeo takes on ultra-lib Ilhan Omar for trying to blame the US for the failure of the socialist scrap heap formerly called Venezuela. Notice how the socialists (communist lites) never own their own results and outcomes? It’s always someone else’s fault.
Give Sick People the bird dept: Mystery poisonings of 7 bald eagles prompt $10G reward offer in Maryland.
Does it matter that Scientists may have detected neutron star, black hole collision? No, only if you’re the insurance carrier…
And if you think the rich are receive preference in collage admissions, this NY Times story Admissions Scandal: When ‘Hard Work’ (Plus $6.5 Million) Helps Get You Into Stanford won’t disappoint.
One other damn good Times business story: Puerto Rico Seeks to Have $9 Billion in Debt Ruled Unconstitutional. Which gets to the heart of when did “the people” get a chance to review (and reject?) the wheeler-dealers who were protecting their own profits and best interests?
Short column today, but this is the stuff that really matters. We could give a rip about the “food-fights” in DC. Off to work on Peoplenomics for this weekend.
There are, you see, three worlds: The crazy one full of fake media consensus. The equally nutty #mee-too world of social. And then there’s the cash in the data-driven world. Since we can’t spend “news” and “fame” isn’t taken at Denny’s, we are left with a simple job of “chasing the bags” (of money) as the only sensible thing to do.
As my boss from back in the airline days held: “We don’t have ANY problems more revenue won’t fix.”