The storm clouds are already gathering. Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve announced a continuation of the L4L (lower for longer) interest rate protocol. They couldn’t raise rates.
And today, the Bank of England followed suit, announcing:
“Our Monetary Policy Committee has voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.75%. The committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of corporate bond purchases and UK government bond purchases.”
It doesn’t take but a moment’s thought to see what’s going on: The BoE is keeping that country afloat, perhaps using Modern Monetary Theory, (MMT) just as the U.S. Fed is continuing in this direction.
We will spare you the detailed discussion of neo-chartalism, but will supply this brief Wikipedia snip on outcomes:
“MMT advocates argue that the government should use fiscal policy to achieve full employment, creating new money to fund government purchases. The primary risk once the economy reaches full employment is inflation, which can be addressed by raising taxes and issuing bonds, to remove excess money from the system. MMT is controversial, with active debate about its policy effectiveness and risks.”
In a grand (even global) sense, we are all passengers on a airplane that even test pilots disagree about.
Hidden by the “Gig Economy”
Tomorrow, the FedGov will announce the new Employment Situation Report. (EMPSIT).
The key number to watch is the total number of persons employed. It tends to be masked by “headline numbers” that are designed to drive markets hither and yon. In our modest view, however, those kinds of numbers are far too “squishy” given that (statistically) fewer people are working jobs with benefits.
While the ADP jobs data claimed 275,000 new jobs were created last month, here’s the Challenger job cuts report from today:
“2019 April Job Cuts Report: Cuts Down to 40,023, YTD Up 31%
U.S.-based employers announced plans to cut 40,023 jobs from their payrolls in April, down 34% from the 60,587 cuts announced in March. This is the lowest monthly total since last August, when 38,472 cuts were announced, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
Despite the monthly drop, April cuts are up 11% from the same month last year, when 36,081 cuts were announced. So far this year, employers have announced 230,433 job cuts, 31% higher than the 176,280 announced in the first four months of last year.”
While twiddling our thumbs ahead of the FedGov story tomorrow, the markets with set to bounce a bit (tiny wave 2 mayhap?) from yesterday’s initial declines.
Other Depressing Outlooks
Media Bias Fact Check figures the website “The Hill” is a pretty-even source of news. So when the stupid waste of taxpayer-funded nonsense came up in the Senate yesterday, the biggest headline available was how there’s not a rift between Mueller and William Barr. We promptly filed this in our (huge) “Shit that doesn’t matter” file.
Great Time to Be a Corporation
Here’s what the press release says:
“Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 3.6 percent in the first quarter of 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 4.1 percent and hours worked increased 0.5 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the first quarter of 2018 to the first quarter of 2019, productivity increased 2.4 percent, reflecting a 3.9percent increase in output and a 1.5-percent increase in hours worked. (See chart 1 and table A1.) The four-quarter increase in productivity is the largest since a 2.7-percent gain in the third quarter of 2010. Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked by all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers. “
Here’s the Reality Check: People are doing more work and getting less for it on a unit basis. Baddabing!
Could the Dow open around flat? Sure, but higher by this afternoon…maybe?
Big Picture Time
We think the market could hang on – and possibly even hit new all-time highs late summer (although this is NOT investment advice). But sometime this fall, the two dozen, or more, who are pretending to office in 2020 from both fraudulent parties (neither of which is representing “The People” any longer – corporations pay better) will either investigate and indict what’s her name, or we could have the spectacle of “dueling investigations.”
Meanwhile, William Barr refuses to testify before House after being grilled by senators. How much abuse can a guy stomach? DemWitch II, the sequel, continues. The Mueller letter is just the latest made-up “storyversy.” As Shakespeare said, so far it’s “much ado about nothing.” Or the “Where’s the beef?” tagline. Take Ure pick.,
Another rhyme from “last time” America went through a long wave economic crisis, which now nears, is what about “Hoovervilles” which began near the beginning of the 1929 crash? Where are they now?
Well, I think we will have two kinds of Trumpville’s ahead. In one case, victim cities to runaway socialists (like sanctuary Seattle) where the homeless already occupy many encampments around the city will be rolled-up in national media as one class of “Trumpville.”
Recently featured in the KOMO TV special “Seattle is Dying” we can reliably predict that such camps will be used as 2020 anti-Trump propaganda by the the national fifth column press to further their anti-American agenda.
We therefore predict “labeling migration.” We will move from homeless camp labels named after local political figures and ity will all be “pinned on Trump.”
Remember, in Seattle, “Nickelsville was once a nickname for Seattle’s tent city, named after the mayor Greg Nickels (2002–2010))”). Poopfrancisco and SancSeattle will be easily spun-up as hysterically touted Trumpvilles. Remember where you heard it first.
The other place to expect Trumpvilles is along the US/Mexico border. It is laughable that the FedGov has time and resources to oppose Americans who are trying to stem the inflow, but can’t be bothered to actually secure the borders themselves.
Might we offer the low-tech answer? Let ICE buglecrats watch YouTube: “VIDEO: Illegals pour out of manhole in busy El Paso intersection, flee into darkness.” If we can find ’em, why can’t the BP?
At some point, the “low intensity conflict” will likely go hot. Socialists, drug peddlers, and bureaucrats habitually over-play their hands.
How to Lose Our Vote
Here I was, foolishly trying to look at the shambles of ‘Merican politics with an open mind.
Then I see where “Buttigieg meets with Hillary Clinton.”
In my view, Buttigieg just failed our “political IQ and integrity test.”
Almost 4-inches of rain up in the Tulsa area overnight. Oklahoma resident on storm: “So devastated” said one report.
We had 2″ of rain in the gauge here in the Outback overnight. According to TylerTexasWeather.com we have had 21.83 inches of rain so far year to date. On track for a 70″ year?
“Climate change, Climate change! Everyone panic and pay a climate tax!.” AYSM?
Slice of local Reality? We may be playing the “septic” version of “Game of Thrones” here when flush comes to shove…or, is it the other way around? Hmmm…
Point is, as the (damn ground-saturating) storms from here move east, look for lots more rain and maybe a late planting or two. Of course, it won’t be a crisis until the weather changes in NYC…
Proof the World Is Nuts Dept.
Branding School: “Hey, let’s figure out a way to double-monetize taco sauce!” Sure: Taco Bell’s summer apparel line includes bikinis inspired by sauce packets. ISYN.
NY Times gets something right: (Their business coverage is good – better than their front page to our tastes.) Eduardo Porter’s “Where the Good Jobs Are” is a must-read for those without degrees looking to move around to move up…Well done!
Second NY Times recommended read today: DealBook Briefing: Capitalists Fear a Socialist Revolt. Though, you wouldn’t think so from their front page – yet. Class warfare is not a warm-n-fuzzy.
War on the Internet: Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin blocks thousands of social media users. Here’s the deal: He’s a republican, and social media is not an “official act” near as we can figure it.
We also judge the ACLU is on the wrong side of this: they are fighting to have critical comments (trolls & bashers) allowed to gum-upn Bevins social media. Suing on behalf of trolls? LOL. Claiming to block people is an abridgement of “free speech.” Come on, fellers, that’s a crockaschitz.
What about Bevins’ rights to communicate with his supporters and plain (non troll) people? His social media pages, are they not?.
What we suspect is REALLY going on here is the liberal-corporate media establishment is scared spitless that another republican politician is going “consumer direct” (as Trump has on Twitter). Screws the corporate media out of all kinds of power…and in our view, that’s why the Bevins case matters.
Speaking of Media Power Failures: “CNN sees ratings swoon in April”. Down 26% in a year says the report..
Daily Diet Aid Story: Maggots will be added to sausage, specialty foods as meat alternative, scientists claim. Oh boy! Yum!
I think I’ll go starve myself now… moron the ‘morrow.