Fed Meeting, Jobs, Housing to Rule

While the “talking heads” – the mainstream media – are trying to fill up their channels with the latest and most salacious details about the criminal charges expected today in Washington, for the folks not so drawn to distraction, the week has plenty of Halloween-like events to consider.  I mean besides Paul Manafort being told to surrender, as reported in the NY Times just now.

The Fed meeting gavels in tomorrow and this could be interesting because there’s been so much discussion of how Janet Yellen won’t be invited back for an encore.  Perhaps, just as well.  I don’t think anyone in their right might will want to be holding the bag when this steamy lump of crap of a market finally lets loose.  Rate hike as a ‘fox uniform’ perhaps?

Then there is Housing data – which should be one of the brighter numbers of the week.  Reason?  As goes housing, so goes America hold some theorists.

(Continues below)

 

And if that’s not enough, we have our “three days of jobs” data this week with ADP Wednesday, Challenger job cuts Thursday, and then the official federal numbers Friday.

All in all, a decent week for the market to come to its senses.

Today’s Numbers

There are three numbers we’re keeping an eye one.

The first is Bitcoin which has soared to $6,148 today.  Since we have been watching BTCs as a proxy for non-market sentiment, this argues that on weakness, we might want to unload our current short position.  More than one of our Peoplenomics.com subscribers has asked “If Ure model says be long, why aren’t you following your own model?”  Right now, I’ll be damned if I can answer that, except to say I was trying too hard, seems, to hit the final tippy-top.

We’ll be rethinking that as the session unfolds, along with those court papers in the district of craziness.

The second number today is the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which we think of as the “pour oil on the waters” department.  Doubtless, few will follow the remark, since damn few readers will have ever weathered a storm offshore and put used oil in a canvas bag and tethered it over the side of a boat to reduce the breaking of big rollers bearing down on the boat.  There are a few times (admittedly damn few) when pollution is an asset, not a liability.

Back to point (you don’t need more sailing stories, I presume?) we have this just out:

“Personal income increased $66.9 billion (0.4 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $53.0 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $136.0 billion (1.0 percent).

Real DPI decreased less than 0.1 percent in September and Real PCE increased 0.6 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

And the one I love:

“Personal saving was $441.9 billion in September
and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 3.1 percent “

The first number to grasp is the Futures which at last check showed the Dow would be coming down about 50 points, or so.

A Word About Climate

Sharp-eyed Roger out in Tucson has spied another leak in the climate narrative:  Here’s a story reporting that ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) is coming down.

A tip of the hat to Roger for the catch, although it won’t do anything to change the minds of the True Believers who are being led down the garden path to a global climate tax.

There is an agenda and most people are stupid.  Which, I guess, can’t be fixed, after all.

However, This is Reassuring

Scientists have designed virtual human brain cells.

Problem is, by the time they’re available in stores, all the humans will have been replaced by machines.  But, it’s a quaint AIdea. (Yes, you can borrow the word – with credit, lol.)

Meantime it’s also reported that Gene editing is about to get a lot more powerful.

When it gets to the point where it impacts government in general and congress in particular, we’ll mention it again.

BREXIT Scare Stories Unravel

Remember how The Network was promoting the idea of 10’s of thousands of jobs leaving the UK if they dared to go against the megalomaniacs of Brussels?

Well, wouldn’t you know: HSBC says it might move fewer than 1000 jobs to Paris on Brexit.  I expect the BREXodus will be far smaller than the lipworker minions of money would have had us believe.

Another cynicism pill for you?

Crusty Reporter’s Notebook:

France in ‘croissant crisis’ amid butter shortage.

Almost as useful and life-changing as noting that Bears not bothered by diet high in saturated fats.

Hell, I could have told you that, what with sausage and eggs for breakfast and being bearish on the market.  No word about bulls, but I hope to pick up some filets in town today.

Brits Don’t Understand U.S.

Seems so when the government-owned BBC rolls with Does Trump have the power to go to war?

Yes, he has to tell Congress but only after the fact.  If there’s anyone left, that is.

Snidely, we note that we couldn’t find a “Can Bush go to war?” or “Can Obama go to war?” story.  Which means, we assume, the British American Establishment (A/K/A The Network) is pulling European levers to bounce Trump and keep the Catalan crisis dialed down so jittery markets don’t worry about a second Spanish Civil War like we do.  Still, the social mood cycle and all…

We figure Spain’s idea of an election is one where the current Catalan leaders have all been detained, so they can’t run.  I guess they learned something from the Inquisition.

Off in Distraction Land:

Kevin Spacey Slammed After Coming Out in Statement Apologizing for Alleged Sexual Harassment.

This story, along with assorted football results, and Kim Kardashian’s H-week garb each accounted for half a million searches on Google Trends when I checked earlier.

Sad commentary on the state of the nation (stupid), but as we like to point out, it’s about what to expect from icon-pressing apes.

It underscores that we’re hopelessly screwed, but when you think about what the ultimate climax of stupidity is, it brings some interesting scenarios to mind.

Comments

Fed Meeting, Jobs, Housing to Rule — 11 Comments

  1. I know many here are anticipating a major correction in the stock market, which is a barometer reading of the economy, but I can tell you where in live in the pacific northwest, there’s lots of jobs going unfilled. They’re not high paying jobs, but needless they’re a job.

    Today I was in a retail chain craft type store. There was 17 people in line with 2 cashiers, one of them was the mgr. People were grumbling about the long line. I knew it wasn’t because of poor mgmt. It was lack of applicants. When it was my turn, I spoke to the cashier/mgr and he told me he has 20 openings and had only 6 applicants in the past 1.5 months. He hired 3, the other 3 never responded to his attempt to reach them. Also know of a gas station that has to work their current staff overtime because new employees don’t last or don’t show up.

    We have a huge homeless problem here. Campers everywhere and many are strung out on heroin and other drugs. There’s something wrong with the younger generations. Their work ethic is compromised.

  2. I should think that life peer and BBC Director General – Lord Hall of Birkenhead, CBE, and livryman in the Worshipful Company of Painter-Stainers of Royal Charter circa 1581 – would be profoundly pleased to argue the BBC licence fee paid by the minions is in fact a tool that wrestles away government influence from the broadcaster.

    One notes that with respect to gibberish, 425 episodes of “Teletubbies” are extant.

  3. While I do like being aware of the issues of the day, when it comes to state department, military and national politics in general, there is very little I can do to affect change.

    As I am not a gazillionaire, I cannot sway markets and don’t have the resources to go out and play BTD all day and night. I don’t have the free cash to play the currency markets and I think debt is a crummy thing.

    Thus, while I believe it is good to be aware of these things, I cannot change them, not even in a small way. Once a politician is elected, then you don’t get a shot at replacing them for years. You just have to hope they do well or get outed for their crimes. If they get brought down by corruption, they get replaced by another in a long line of professional ex-lawyers turned politicians.

    What they do, while it may be great for NYT or WaPo or WSJ to get eyeballs on their pages, actually has minimal effect on me at a basic level. Therefore, I view a lot of what is discussed and run up the political flagpoles as pure distraction.

    I would much rather more woo-woo and discussion of self-reliance type things than politics – as politics gets a trajectory once every 2-4 years, and the rest is waiting and watching. Bitching and commiserating gets really old – much rather try some new thing or read about old tech that is useful, projects that can save money, ways to use your time not involving a computer or the internet.

    Diving into the vacuous “news” stories of the day does nothing for my mental health – it’s like watching a clown car on a bumpy cul-de-sac every time you look out the living room window. After a very short while, most people close the curtains.

  4. I do not agree that anything about your column today was negative! Because you are mostly speaking the truth and are correct — how can that be negative? Thank you — and enjoy your coffee!

    • Not surprisingly, the man leaves a sour taste .. . I feel like he never even attended a civics class at military school, Wharton, or Penn State.

      The bias against history, and literature classes in our country has got to stop, else Americans will never understand the full complexity of civilization – and we will fall behind the rest of the world!

  5. Good Morning George, your article this morning seemed a bit snarky or grumpy. It had a desicive negative tone. Not that I am being critical, I just noticed. Ussually you mention when your not a happy camper.

    It is frustrating to realize that we get more things that do not matter than we get things that do, from the MSM. Like you I hope people wise up and see the real picture of the problems that seem to be facing us. But as you said “you can’t fix stupid”! Right now stupidity is in abundance in the media, DC, and Europe.

    I think the Spian issue is being limited because of the number of other places and peoples that want to do the same throughout Europe. And Califonia comes to mind as well. If Catalonia is successful, look for a number of other countries to face the same issues from separatists, USA included.

    • I was having lots of connectivity issues out here in the woods with centurylate.net

  6. Will the indictment of Manafort lead to revealing all about Papa John Podesta?

  7. It has ‘occurred’ to me that way back when – the Spain thing – would have been ‘a big deal’ – but now it is buried in the news cycle . . .

    Remember when the Basques were demanding recognition? And the problems in Belgium with the Flemish/French problem? Those were big problems ‘in the day’ . . .

    Point I’m making is that currently – ‘the Trump problem’ is taking all the ‘air’ in the room (read World) whereas there are other important problems ALSO to consider . . .