Remember last Friday?

That’s when the consumer price report came out. You can review it here, or accept when I tell you the government is trying to sell the idea that the general level of prices is up 1.1% in the past year.

Hold this number in mind now and follow along.

Let’s flip over to the H.6 Money Stocks report from the Federal Reserve. In August of 2015 M1, seasonally adjusted, stood at $3,041.2 billion, or to be lazy $3.041 trillion.

As of last Thursday’s report, M1, seasonally adjusted, stood at $3,314.1 billion or $3.314 trillion dollars.

Dividing the year-ago number into the current we see the money supply in the last year as increased 8.977%.

Since it’s early, we can round this off to Money Supply at M1 is up 9%.

Now pull out that prices increase – the 1.1%.

We can guesstimate that the Fed is pondering 7.9% deflation as they gavel in for two days of meetings which will wrap up with a decision tomorrow (not to raise rates because of the election being near) and then a press conference in which Janet Yellen will attempt to keep the illusion intact at least until the election is done.

(Since that’s more a matter of bidding and spending that actual substance, living as we do in an imaginary media-charged Alt-Brainwashed world. I won’t bore you with how Hillary will likely win despite the polls. Though I hope I’m wrong…)

The Fed can’t keep doing this (making up mountains of money to keep the economy going) forever. But they only have to do it “One ‘mo time…” and then they are good for another eight years.

The most serious oddity to watch (other than the Ponzi-like economy) is the stock market. On the Monday open it drove up more than 100 points as it to say to the Fed “You go, girl!”

By the end of the session, both the Dow and the S&P had been thrown for tiny losses.

The important thing, however, was that insiders were given a chance to short from higher levels.

And that’s why as much as it may SEEM as though the Fed has been putting it’s thumb on the economic scales in support of Obama II/Clinton II, they may have other plans.

Still, the 10-year bond when I looked was still trading at 1.7% so the odds of anything big happening tomorrow are still unchanged.

Nevertheless, a good tongue-lashing in the press conference to follow might dowse some market hysteria, thereby skating through one last meeting cycle before the “election” in November.

After that? You and I don’t matter, again. And in the coming four years, I expect we will start the Second Depression, have our bail-in, and the transition to Crony Socialism will move forward on schedule.

That’s where regular people will have to total depend on government, and government will give and take as it pleases its cronies, the one percenters.

Since we know who their candidate is, no Fed move, a rally in the Spring and then collapse looks like the course from here.

Housing Starts To Slide

Remember a few days ago I was telling you a major Recession in 2017 is coming into view if you know where to look? Well, just out from Census:

BUILDING PERMITS

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,139,000. This is 0.4 percent (±1.6%)* below the revised July rate of 1,144,000 and is 2.3 percent (±1.5%) below the August 2015 estimate of 1,166,000.

Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 737,000; this is 3.7 percent (±3.0%) above the revised July figure of 711,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 370,000 in August.

HOUSING STARTS Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,142,000. This is 5.8 percent (±9.7%)* below the revised July estimate of 1,212,000, but is 0.9 percent (±12.5%)* above the August 2015 rate of 1,132,000.

Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 722,000; this is 6.0 percent (±8.2%)* below the revised July figure of 768,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 403,000.

HOUSING COMPLETIONS Privately-owned housing completions in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,043,000. This is 3.4 percent (±10.9%)* below the revised July estimate of 1,080,000, but is 8.3 percent (±11.8%)* above the August 2015 rate of 963,000.

Dow Futures are up 60-something, but remember this is Paint-the-Tape Day ahead of the Fed.

Making Up Demons

In the meantime, CNN is again earning its nickname Clinton News Network as other media report “CNN Puts Words In Trump’s Mouth: Runs Headlines Saying He Wants “Racial” Profiling.”

Yet somehow Brian Stelter of CNN can’t understand why Trump doesn’t want to talk to CNN…gee, can you imagine that?

Please tell me you’re not surprised.

Another “Gee, no kidding?” headline is the revelation that “New York Bomber Ahmad Khan Rahami Was a Trump Hater.” Again, no surprise.

Bush to Vote Hillary?

Again, going to the one percenters idea, we see the headline “George H.W. Bush to vote for Hillary” and read it as a sour-grapes piece.

Let me think:  Why would the Bush aristocracy vote for a candidate that screwed up Jeb’s efforts to continue the regal name ad infinitum? Seriously? Like this is a surprise? 

It’s not an election, it’s a bid and the aristocracy has all the money…

Climate Debate

More than 100,000 people have died from fossil fuel haze in Indonesia. Except for one thing: Indonesia says it’s not true.

This reminds me: If you want unlimited funding and a life-time job, grab something in climate studies – it’s the new growth industry.  No product except fear and unlimited marketing potential. Look what it did for Al Gore!

Will Tulsa Burn, Next?

We can’t help but notice that with the heat up on Hillary, Trump coming up in polls, and time to play head games on the Silent Majority of America running short, we have an oddly timed story coming out of Tulsa.

Seems a black man was killed by a female cop on Friday – but only now are the media pumping the story.

Just curious:  How long for out of town agitators to find Tulsa?

Not to be conspiratorial about it, but I figure in a week, or two, Tulsa could be a real hot spot in the headlines, based on how such incidents have gone in the past.

Quick response by the police department and a Civil Rights investigation by the Feds is a good start. But the timing of events, which if it “lights off” would dwarf important political headlines, seem almost predictable.

I won’t predict it, but I will track…for now.

The Leading Edge of Chaos
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