This is Dyngus Day. A tough day to get excited about, with a few local exceptions.
Markets are generally closed in Europe because this is “Easter Monday” and a market holiday in places like Germany, France, and the U.K.
Oh, and Australian markets were closed overnight, as well.
“What does this have to do with the U.S.?” is a fair question.
Depends on whether you follow our admittedly odd worldview when comes to trading (a cross between investing and wild-eyed gambling).
You see with networked markets, the whole global system models well as a “big gob of money.”
But when some of the markets are closed, some portion of the money comes off the table for things like weekends. And on special weekends like this one, when markets are open one placed, closed another, it makes it doubly to triply confusing.
Eventually – starting with Asia tonight – we will see come global coherence sneak back in and once that is done, then we can use our Aggregate U.S. indicators to figure out the next money-making move long of short. Or, so we hope.
I could roll on endlessly about how Alt-Econ really works (well!) but it is a non-quantitative approach and would not be blessed by academia.
It’s like the study of geology, though.
We walk up to a small mountain range and observe all the mountains have partial connections. From one to another we might see a ridge line, for example.
Geologists who have been seized by “too many numbers” disease will not simply look at the obvious routes between mountains.
Instead, they will measure everything possible. What is the slope of that hill? What are the numeric dimensions of the mountain? Is that igneous rock? Where did it come from?
Not that each of the data points isn’t True. The question is “Are they useful?”
A pocket altimeter works fine.
The dirty little secret about how the stock market works is similarly simple – and it explains why the modern trading platforms – you know, the online stock brokerages – it’s why THEY make money.
It is like owning a casino and being able to inspect people’s bets before they are placed.
If you see a bunch of people putting roulette money on the number 37, you simply buy all possible positions on 37 and re-sell them a fraction of a second later to the retail customers.
If this is done slowly (by a human) it is considered “front-running.” When a broker makes money on your trades, as is caught, it’s fines, suspension or prison..
The SEC, being easily confused when looking at the mountain of front-running data that effectively takes place with high-frequency trading platforms, has been effectively bamboozled by “mathnosis” (math plus hypnosis, right?) into believing that if “front running is fast enough, it’s not front running of trades.”
Some day, and I hope to live long enough to see it, some young law firm will file a class action lawsuit against the HFT operators. But in the meantime, there’s enough fog in the mountains – this being Easter Monday – that it’s hardly worth getting up. The Mountains will be more visible tomorrow.
We like to see the mountains clearly and holidays like this amount to fog.
We don’t expect the U.S, market to move too much in today’s session.Under our wacky “Aggregate” theories, inter-market arbitrage means as much as retail stock sales. Maybe more.
If you are still drawn to the adrenaline, might we propose the Boston Marathon run for the more ambitious?
Around here, the Plan of the Day will involve additional non-destructive pillow testing.
After all the work in the garden this weekend, more sleep sounds like a grand idea.
Snide Remarks About Headlines
Normally, we would offer a string of news headlines about here. Pithy comments would follow.
But in honor of Easter Monday,, we will point you over to our automatically-updated Breaking News Feed content aggregation software page where you can see the world roll by as I snooze.
A FB murder? Another nail in the coffin of the unlicensed Internet.
Crooked politics in SK and the visiting Pence? Fine, have at it.
Almost as exciting as the “Truth About Almond Milk.”
Answer me this: Do you really think staying up for another 90 minutes to report the Empire State Manufacturing Survey is the best use of my time? What about the pillow testing project?
Fed industrial production and capacity utilization tomorrow morning ain’t exactly the Grateful Dead, know what I’m sayin?
Mr. Pith will be back tomorrow when the gambling makes more sense..
For now: Time to pith and snooze.