Damn Weather Whipsaw: Market Slide Ahead

Gosh, yesterday I was telling you how there was a case in current market action for there to be some recovery in the markets and, should it all hold how we could go on to new highs. That would be based on “good news” which was being priced into the market.

Then something happened in our model:  As the storm track for Irma came around to a possible dead hit on Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, our old stomping grounds in Boca, then on up to coast to West Palm and points north, our model (“Carnac”) decided to turn tail and run.  If “good news” is dropping from Cat 5 to Cat 4, that’s not much to trade on.

More specifically?  We took a small (dime-sized) loss (plus commission) and timed out the trade at 3:53 PM, going to a cash position in our tiny trading account.

(Continues below)

 

Let me show you what changed between the Thursday session and this morning:  First, here’s how things looked at the close yesterday in the model: (See the word “Short?”)

Granted, that wasn’t a strong short; that’s why we opted for cash.  On the other hand, the projected move for today would be a reasonable “downer” so there would be no point remaining long on the chance that a lower open would cost more than taking the short-term “whip-saw.” With that advice from the model, I was done with the long position.

Sure enough:  The  market has (in a manic manner) decided to get worried about several more Houston-like messes appearing over the weekend.  Here’s our outlook from the trading model this morning (REMEMBER: THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!)

The problem that should be apparent?  Look at the projection for Monday’s action.  Yee gads.

Should that kind of selling follow-through happen, it would mean some of the worst fears about Irma are likely to be priced into the market Monday and this, in turn, suggests that it’s going to be bad…very bad.

Unfortunately, there may be a bad-on-top-of-bad coming, too.

When markets drop out of a long-term rally, which they could do next week, it is possible it would change a larger-picture Elliott wave count.  If it does, this particular modeled future offers that a 5% OR LARGER market decline might then arrive sooner than later.

5%?  Like more than a thousand Dow points???

Yeah…That’s how big the market drop was in the aftermath of Katrina/Rita after it walloped NOLA.  But since this will be an even bigger hit (as a percentage of GDP) it will mean (presumably) a bigger market decline.

We’ll lay out some of the specific possibilities on the www.peoplenomics.com site tomorrow.

What matters this morning are three things:

  1. Watch the storm track here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

2. Actually read the meteorology  discussion:

“DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 74.7 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the northwest is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should move near the north coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas today and Saturday, and be near the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

3.  Good luck to us all and Godspeed.

Mexico Quake: Now the BAD News

You may have seen that there was a major (8.1 revised) quake down in southern Mexico?

Mexico earthquake of magnitude 8.2 strikes off Pacific coast.

While most of the re-tweeters and re-posters are OMG’ing this all over social, they miss the real story which is?

The Mexico earthquake has released tension on one part of a fault system.  So it becomes a concern that tension is now building in other parts of the fault system.  The areas circles are the ones we would be watching:  SoCal, SF, Seattle to the Queen Charlottes (now the Haida Gwaii’s because political correctness is everywhere) and maybe up to Alaska and out into the Aleutians.

If it happens, it’s not our fault.

Uh…did someone mention that Sept. 23 date as the opening of the Tribulation might actually have missed the start?

Oh, since I am writing on my next book Dimensions Next Door, did you see the report of “earthquake lights” after the quake?

Credit Reporting Breach

You need to check your credit history: Equifax breach exposes 143M people to identity theft.

How Stupid Are Democrats?

As we suggested Thursday, Donald Trump, Jr. went up to capitol hill for a BBQ Thursday…and he was on grill.

Five HOURS worth.

The reason we question the IQ of democrats is stories like this one: Blumenthal cites ‘gaps’ in Trump Jr. testimony.

Let me see, here: It was what, a 15-minute meeting?  And after five more hours Blumenthal and the other Trump-bashers STILL haven’t got a chargeable crime?

Meantime, the Robert Mueller fishing expedition is trying to get IRS involved.  So go efforts of what Steve Bannon will say on CBS in depth this weekend is how desperately the republican establishment wants to get rid of Trump.  And that’s means Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell.

Guess republicans are stupid, too.  Couple of great guesses, huh?

Watch our comments section for first-hand reports during the Irma impacts… and have a safe weekend…

Comments

Damn Weather Whipsaw: Market Slide Ahead — 36 Comments

  1. Folks,
    An extraordinary explanation of the events of the Mexico earthquake is documented by Yoichi Shimatsu on Rense. Scroll down, He’s on the left margin.

  2. “The reason we question the IQ of democrats is stories like this one: Blumenthal cites ‘gaps’ in Trump Jr. testimony.”
    I personally question all of congress’s abilities..

    https://i.pinimg.com/736x/ec/9d/a7/ec9da738bd2d8a7b00f2a6de72b475b8–donald-trump-donald-oconnor.jpg

    https://cdn.inquisitr.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/FullSizeRender-664×700.jpg

    https://www.usnews.com/dims4/USNEWS/683bd3a/2147483647/resize/1200x%3E/quality/85/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.beam.usnews.com%2F15%2F79%2F348be2ad421eafd1a145c807d3b6%2Fthumb-1.jpg

    these three cartoons pretty much says how I feel about the whole mess.. will he make decisions I hate.. I believe he will.. but we need someone that loves our country that isn’t a politician that is willing to go the extra mile for me the average citizen watching our political system slowly swirl down the drain.
    it isn’t new though in my opinion but a careful plan that originated during my great grandparents day..
    https://ia600202.us.archive.org/17/items/LundbergFerdinandAmericas60Families1937PDFscan/Lundberg,%20Ferdinand%20-%20America's%2060%20Families%20(1937).pdf

    here is a decent documentary or movie.. but it is thought provoking..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cg2VtbRr8qM

  3. Interruptions. What are the chances? I’ve been traveling, my return flight was cancelled due to Hurricane Harvey, so I had to change my flight home. Guess what, just got my return flight cancelled again due to Irma. Guess I just gotta stay put another week or so. Nice thing is, Delta does not refund seat purchases, gotta repurchase each time…but no fee to change flights nor do I have to pay for the difference in airfare, if any. I’ve missed the eclipse, hurricane Harvey, a siblings visit from Tennessee, the wake of a dear friend, my sister’s heart operation, and I am fixing to miss my vacation with my husband. I just wonder if he will take off on that Harley and head to Memphis without me? He might be stalled, too, just depends which track Irma takes. I’m thinking of booking a return trip on the QM2nd leaving on the 14th! I have another sibling hunkered down in Florida, and one in Eastern Tennessee. What a month! The good thing about all of this is: IF YOU WEREN’T A PREPPER BEFORE, YOU SURE ARE GONNA BECOME ONE NOW! NEW LEXICON; “YOU, TOO, CAN BE A PREPPER!” “Prep now or forever hold your piece.” “Preppers R US.” “To Prep or not to Prep, that is the Question.” I wonder if this is going to be the cause of the GREAT MIGRATION? -0- where are YOU?

    • I’m here, got up early so I could read George’s article. Sorry, but I have a nasty head cold and I’m off to work can’t pass up that time and a half. I got nothing for ya, other than you are right where your supposed to be.

      I gave ya guys the heads up on the hurricanes, the earthquake, stocks, and solar flares. I’m too dang busy to give you locations, it takes time to meditate on the locations and sort through all the information provided to me. I’m super busy, kinda overwhelmed with remodeling a house/working 65+ hours a week, plus commuting 2-3 hours a day on top of that and being sick.

      I’m sure I was provided with locations and sizes etc. Etc. I don’t have a desk job Any more where I can sit and sort it all out. So I do the best I can to give ya what I got.

      Was hoping Grady at nostrocodus or Chris at the national dream center could fill in the gaps..because i can’t emphasise this enough. I’m friggen busy! Plus, I would like to start dating again and you know, have some companionship, hold hands and cook dinner together etc. Etc. I just don’t know when I could find the time to date anyone at the moment.

      I am deffinently not God. Lol HE knows all..

      It’s like a whole nother language. Like reading the abstract.

      Anyway, off to grab 18 years
      . Be safe!

      • Ohhh and I live in the Seattle area. I love this song.

        https://youtu.be/PKpQRjj_WbU

        P.S. remember every thought is a prayer, every action a ritual and every time you listen it’s a form of meditation. I’m going to perform the great peanutbitter and jelly sandwich ritual. Ahhh manifestation!

  4. George
    When you are thinking about your discussion tomorrow, would you look at how much manipulation is going on in the indexes?
    I read you comment this morning and what you saw is what I saw, I expected everything to drift down in expectation of Monday, and my little charts I keep all said short too.
    So while everything is going the way the charts would indicate, why is the DJII up all day and at close, run up a bump so it stays positive going into the weekend?
    PPT at work?
    Talk about whipsaw!

    If you don’t mind my asking, I noticed you said Wednesday, you are now working the S&P and you had no options. So are you working another ETF, because the DOW is being manipulated to such extent?

    Meanwhile I had not noticed the funk and headache all morning going into the weekend until you talked about the Quake last night.
    Did you get your symptoms on that one?

    Mine are kind of like a sinus infection coming on but all body aches are in shoulders and neck. For a flu or other infection the pain is normally lower back near kidneys, which make sense, they would be working overtime. a couple of the minor tracks the weather service is predicting take Irma to B’ham, but most have it traveling to ATL the Nashville.

    Gives me a couple of thing to watch for over the weekend.

  5. Was reading that those “earthquake lights” could be a sort of aurora created by the recent Coronal Mass Ejection that also triggered the earthquake.

  6. I would suggest that the strange lights were a reflection off the clouds of things like electrical Transformers exploding. They make one Hell of a flash when they go off!

  7. Bad news; a group of thugs now has your personal financial info and ssn and uses that info for their gain with no need for permission. Their name is Equifax and Experian and you can buy stock at your broker.

    • Bingo! But, personally, I think they just sold that information to the highest bidder. I mean come on, they are the standard bearers and all they cared about was…what??? THE MONEY!

  8. I have a friend in the insurance business, he says all the big players are out of Florida and that the smaller companies that do offer insurance are doomed and will go bankrupt.

  9. A friend of mine called this morning and woke me up to ask whether I had heard of dreams about earthquakes preceding them. She had one of the few dreams she ever remembered earlier about being in an industrial area. With strangers, all wearing hard hats, and an earthquake happened. When she realized that the moving ground was a quake, she looked up at overhead beams and realized everyone needed to run out into the open. No language happened, but only her thoughts.

    Then she woke up later to discover that there was a big one in Mexico.

    I told her about George’s prescient dreams, and she was relieved this happens to other people.

    Interesting that she almost never remembers dreams.

    • For three months prior to hurricane Katrina I was telling my sons mother that we needed to get rid of our house in Violet LA because a hurricane was going to destroy it. At that time I was working in Silicon Valley. Katrina did indeed destroy that house and she spent three days at the flooded Chalmette General hospital tending to those who could not be evacuated. That was a two story building. I had felt a Great Disturbance in the Force in regards to Katrina having been through two previous bad hurricanes myself! I pay attention to that little voice in my head trying to be heard!

  10. Sorry I couldn’t get ya the location. Or didn’t get it right. I’m Sooo tired and working way too much. Between moving, remodeling and well, now I’m sick on top of that.

    I had to drink a 5 hour energy and a gulp of dayquil just to get out of bed this morning and go to work.

    When I don’t have all these things going on, I am much more accurate.

    Hope you all don’t have family down there. Could still be another one in sanfransico in a couple days.

    Anyway I don’t have time or energy to even read ure site today.

    Have a good day.

    0

    • I will check back later of “time” allows.
      Tell the powers that be to send along the hot little brunette, they know what I like. I have been feeding them info for a while.. ha ha ha ha!

      • By that, “feeding” I know they monitor me heavily. Browser history. I do NOT work for them. Lol

        1 million without power, jeesh.

        Be keeping an EYE on San Francisco.

        I’m going to run a few loads and go home and go back to bed. Working to.orrow too.

        Later old dude

  11. I heard on the radio this morning that the Speaker of the House DOES NOT have to be a member, so some of the conservative members are suggesting Gingrich and others be considered to replace Ryan. This should be very interesting.

    • Gingrich already shot that down yesterday in a tweet, said Back Ryan. I think he is trying to prevent any MORE turmoil for R’s.
      Anyway if you go to Gingrich’s home page on Twitter it should be there.

  12. Theologically speaking, the triple hit on this part of the world, ie two major hurricanes and an 8.2 earthquake, would portend some very ugly things to come. However, God is still with us as evidenced by the New England Patriots loss last night.

    • Amen, brother Shayne, regarding the Patsie’s opening game loss last evening. However, I must caution that the Pats lost their season openers three other times and still went on to win the Lomardi – Miami in 2014; Buffalo in 2003; and the Bungles in 2001. Brady and Beli-cheat must have a pact with Satan . . . and Satan is delivering (NE winning has absolutely nothing to do with Brady’s QB skills and Beli-cheat’s strategic wizardry). Still, Brady is making $14M this season and he went home to Gisele last night . . . we should not feel any pity for him (but he’s a bargain @ $14M when Joe Flacco and Carson Palmer are each making $24M this year).

      • Start an IV of valium and get me bloodwork…I think this one is delusional, but we need confirmation. Game 2 would be conclusive.

      • I know the offense was stupendous, but what makes a believer out of me is the two stops of Gilleslee on 4th & short.

  13. George,

    I’m in the Savannah, GA area which happens to be in the path of Irma. I’ve been keeping a close eye on the storm track and I have two solid plans and I’m well prepped either way…one to stay and one to bug out. Based on what I see right now is that Irma won’t be much more than a tropical storm by the time it gets to us. If that forecast holds then we’ll stay put.
    Last year we rode out Matthew, which was about a Cat 2 when it arrived here. It wasn’t bad other than being out of power for 3 days. Otherwise, it was the best sleep I’d had in months!

    We’ll keep you posted.

    MAJ-13