Gosh, yesterday I was telling you how there was a case in current market action for there to be some recovery in the markets and, should it all hold how we could go on to new highs. That would be based on “good news” which was being priced into the market.
Then something happened in our model: As the storm track for Irma came around to a possible dead hit on Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, our old stomping grounds in Boca, then on up to coast to West Palm and points north, our model (“Carnac”) decided to turn tail and run. If “good news” is dropping from Cat 5 to Cat 4, that’s not much to trade on.
More specifically? We took a small (dime-sized) loss (plus commission) and timed out the trade at 3:53 PM, going to a cash position in our tiny trading account.
Let me show you what changed between the Thursday session and this morning: First, here’s how things looked at the close yesterday in the model: (See the word “Short?”)
Granted, that wasn’t a strong short; that’s why we opted for cash. On the other hand, the projected move for today would be a reasonable “downer” so there would be no point remaining long on the chance that a lower open would cost more than taking the short-term “whip-saw.” With that advice from the model, I was done with the long position.
Sure enough: The market has (in a manic manner) decided to get worried about several more Houston-like messes appearing over the weekend. Here’s our outlook from the trading model this morning (REMEMBER: THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!)
The problem that should be apparent? Look at the projection for Monday’s action. Yee gads.
Should that kind of selling follow-through happen, it would mean some of the worst fears about Irma are likely to be priced into the market Monday and this, in turn, suggests that it’s going to be bad…very bad.
Unfortunately, there may be a bad-on-top-of-bad coming, too.
When markets drop out of a long-term rally, which they could do next week, it is possible it would change a larger-picture Elliott wave count. If it does, this particular modeled future offers that a 5% OR LARGER market decline might then arrive sooner than later.
5%? Like more than a thousand Dow points???
Yeah…That’s how big the market drop was in the aftermath of Katrina/Rita after it walloped NOLA. But since this will be an even bigger hit (as a percentage of GDP) it will mean (presumably) a bigger market decline.
We’ll lay out some of the specific possibilities on the www.peoplenomics.com site tomorrow.
What matters this morning are three things:
- Watch the storm track here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
2. Actually read the meteorology discussion:
“DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 74.7 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the northwest is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should move near the north coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas today and Saturday, and be near the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).
3. Good luck to us all and Godspeed.
Mexico Quake: Now the BAD News
You may have seen that there was a major (8.1 revised) quake down in southern Mexico?
While most of the re-tweeters and re-posters are OMG’ing this all over social, they miss the real story which is?
The Mexico earthquake has released tension on one part of a fault system. So it becomes a concern that tension is now building in other parts of the fault system. The areas circles are the ones we would be watching: SoCal, SF, Seattle to the Queen Charlottes (now the Haida Gwaii’s because political correctness is everywhere) and maybe up to Alaska and out into the Aleutians.
If it happens, it’s not our fault.
Uh…did someone mention that Sept. 23 date as the opening of the Tribulation might actually have missed the start?
Oh, since I am writing on my next book Dimensions Next Door, did you see the report of “earthquake lights” after the quake?
Credit Reporting Breach
You need to check your credit history: Equifax breach exposes 143M people to identity theft.
How Stupid Are Democrats?
As we suggested Thursday, Donald Trump, Jr. went up to capitol hill for a BBQ Thursday…and he was on grill.
Five HOURS worth.
The reason we question the IQ of democrats is stories like this one: Blumenthal cites ‘gaps’ in Trump Jr. testimony.
Let me see, here: It was what, a 15-minute meeting? And after five more hours Blumenthal and the other Trump-bashers STILL haven’t got a chargeable crime?
Meantime, the Robert Mueller fishing expedition is trying to get IRS involved. So go efforts of what Steve Bannon will say on CBS in depth this weekend is how desperately the republican establishment wants to get rid of Trump. And that’s means Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell.
Guess republicans are stupid, too. Couple of great guesses, huh?
Watch our comments section for first-hand reports during the Irma impacts… and have a safe weekend…