Mini-Crash Day? Futures down 350 at clicktime. Naw…just a warm-up.
We are not quite at the “Once again, I told you so…” stage, but damn, we are getting close.
The price of Bitcoin was being quoted this morning as around $4,400 and this is very much in keeping with the longer-term views we have presented in the past.
If you’d been reading UrbanSurvival all along, you would have seen this coming. I warned you six-ways to Sunday that this was digital tulips and guess what?
But enough…here’s an old chart we put up in MARCH showing trend channels so our readers would see what was in store for them…
In our work, trend channels matter greatly. It has been shown repeatedly over the years that there is no free lunch. Amazingly, people are still lining up for Cryptos, despite the historical lessons of? OMG…the list:
- Tulip Mania
- South Sea Bubble
- US Stock Bubble in 1928-1929
- House flipping mania & no doc loans of 2006
- Iraqi dollars…
- And NOW?
Our view (and skepticism) turned out to be justified (along with our warnings) because here’s what Bitcoin looks like this morning…
Like all really bad news – we’re still in the Denial Stage. The Crisis part will begin next week, by our reckoning.
That will be evident, we suppose when the stock market gets into it’s “thousand points down days” which we also expect.
Reader LB down in Houston sent me a link to the Goldman story…they too are coming around to our view that the US economy is venturing in the “Sucks Zone” in 2019. Gee, who’d have thought, huh?
Well, except for our Peoplenomics.com subscribers who got the heads-up on October 24 to be thinking in terms of “The Global Depression of 2021? ”
Not surprisingly, a few people in the Financial World are already warning that we could have some really scary times ahead in the markets. But, pardon me, didn’t I tell you weeks back (October 26 to be exact) WHEN this would begin (Nov 9) and what has the market done since our “zero day”? We can only imagine when our next round of “hot dates” shows up next week…
Here’s What Ugly Looks Like
Thank the people who are kind enough to support oure work, research, and writings over on the Peoplenomics.com site for making this kind of view possible.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Yes, that yellow area is where we might be in a couple of weeks IF (God-forbid) our outlooks continue to be accurate.
Our view is the market MIGHT take a small bounce up from the bottom of the Wave 1 low, but only, perhaps, long enough to “kiss” the 9 Day Simple Moving Average.
That gets us to what happens – possibly next week.
So what will drive us down?
The list is long and fugly, but you need to understand that it’s not just one thing. It’s a whole bunch of things – one of which will be popularized in market history…but in truth, a little bit of this, a little bit of that…
- Global trade is being tinkered with.
- The EU wants to tax non EU entities (like Google)
- Trump wants some equality in tariffs
- Bitcoin and the Cryptos are on the verge of blowing up.
- Our view is they are no more “money” than Charles Ponzi’s postal coupon scam back when.
- The proliferation of me-too cryptos means there are no effective barriers to entry – anyone can “make-up” a crypto
- Crypto’s have no “intrinsic value.” Unplug the computer and what is it? Contrary to popular myth, what backs the US/Fed Reserve Note is the ability to tax people. Cryptos are essentially hollow.
- As the Bank for International Settlements noted in their report this year, there’s enough enough storage or computing horsepower for them to take over from a major currency…
- What about the national radio host who was touting (with a promoter) $7,200 Bitcoin by Christmas? We’re wondering how that is going to work out. We have a few guesses…
- No, Bitcoin profits are not tax-free. The gains are taxable income. Again, massive mis and disinformation has run rampant.
- And here comes Reuters “Bitcoin for payments a distant dream as usage dries up. – Gee, are we surprised? Hell no…we’ve been wrong – and the object of derision for a couple of years now. But in the end…it’s the long term that counts around here.
- Consumer Super-Saturation.
- Everyone who can get a job now has one
- Everyone who wants to buy a “thing” already has a couple
- Phones are super-saturaated
- And judging by the obesity of America, we are shoveling food at record rates.
- The “Climate Model” is in trouble – but so is the “Monetize Everything” movement. This includes gender, sexual orientation, politics, extremism of all sorts.
- The Military will be needed a LOT of money SOON. And then there’s…
- A fresh crop of idjits in Washington who DHAFC. This ensures gridlock and we look forward to the government shutdown that becomes semi-predictable next year.
- Massive homelessness. We don’t call them Trumpville’s yet but give it a year…these will be along as that’s what happens when the economy goes into toxic shock with financial assets falling apart.
- Too many Fed rate hikes
- The impacts of the Tax Bomb – limiting deductions for property taxes and local taxes…
In the very short term with the market futures down 300 already today, there’s not much for us today but fry up some eggs and bacon and watch the follies. It may be scary today, maybe tomorrow, but perhaps a break Friday, or so…we shall see.
But the bigger picture is that despite all the “popular delusions” out there (Complexity is good, Bitcoins will replace fiat money, check’s in the mail) the facts keep looking us in the face and wondering “How long can you be stupid?”
The answer, dear reader, is possibly very close at hand.
(Feel free to tell all your friends about UrbanSurvival – we have been more right than most and we’re not beholden to pressure from anyone…we’re just here to serve…)
Breaking: Housing Starts Report
So, In Other News…
Contrary to Al Gore and the IPCC, the only way to deal with climate will turn out to be the “old-fashioned way” – paying for the clean up. As the Northeast could see accumulating snow; heavy rain in the West could produce mudslides, we are hearing the damage estimates could top $13-billion – and likely will go higher.
What people don’t realize is that climate change marketing sets up a “double-dip” into your wallet. Not only will home insurance premiums go up, but it the tax-the-climate promoters have their way, you’ll pay climate taxes, too.
We modeled this out years ago and have written about it ever since:” The way to win was (and still may be) to live below your means and get into a sustainable living situation. But oi, who listens, huh?
Consumer Choice hits a new low as Tennessee inmate must chose lethal injection, electric chair.
Don’t be surprised but… A Federal Judge Has Blocked the U.S. From Enforcing Trump’s Asylum Ban. After all, U.S. District Judge Jon S. Tigar was appointed by that fellow before Trump.
By the way, long as we’re on this whole “madness on bordering” did you notice where Lowe’s to get rid of Mexico stores in further restructuring? Actually, I’m saddened to read that: Mexico is a country that has almost unlimited growth ahead – if they can just get the government and the cartels to pitch in… strangely, no one asked us. But, a tier-lower priced Mexican brand might be a winner…be good for the country.
Surf’s Up! Huge waves hit Tenerife in Spain’s Canary Islands. Hey! Might “climate change” improve surfing>? Could we make that the next Big Thing?
Around the Ranch
I tweaked the typeface for headlines on the site a day or two back. I live to have 2-3 typefaces on a page – gives an element of “design” Some people, though like a single typeface. I think that looks “flat” – so let me know what your sense of ‘art’ tells you.
Note to Chris Tyreman of the Chronicle Project who is also a first-rate graphics whiz: We need to update the logo for Urban – something new for 2019?
We could get used to short work weeks like this one. It’s given me enough time to work on ham radio gear. My latest project being the restoration of an older Heathkit SB-303 receiver which is now doing -131 dbm on receive. Honestly, I don’t there’s there’s much point to trying for much better. That’s better than original specs and I’d like to move on to an old Hallicrafters SX-117 to dial it in a bit more before my consigliere – also an Extra Class ham, gets here next week.
With futures down 300, or do, we’re not too worried yet about our economic future as a country. Because we know what an MCHVE looks like. So far, declines globally have been somewhat even. When they begin to differentiate? Well, that’s when a massively correlated hyper-volatility event (a/k/a crash) can occur. It’s like when everyone runs to one side of a boat – resulting in a capsize.
We shall see, perhaps as early as next week, huh? Moron the ‘morrow…