Crypto-Night Falls: Bitcoin’s Dicey Future

Mini-Crash Day?  Futures down 350 at clicktime.  Naw…just a warm-up.

We are not quite at the “Once again, I told you so…” stage, but damn, we are getting close.

The price of Bitcoin was being quoted this morning as around $4,400 and this is very much in keeping with the longer-term views we have presented in the past.

If you’d been reading UrbanSurvival all along, you would have seen this coming. I warned you six-ways to Sunday that this was digital tulips and guess what?

But enough…here’s an old chart we put up in MARCH showing trend channels so our readers would see what was in store for them…

In our work, trend channels matter greatlyIt has been shown repeatedly over the years that there is no free lunch.  Amazingly, people are still lining up for Cryptos, despite the historical lessons of?  OMG…the list:

  • Tulip Mania
  • South Sea Bubble
  • US Stock Bubble in 1928-1929
  • House flipping mania & no doc loans of 2006
  • Iraqi dollars…
  • And NOW?

Our view (and skepticism) turned out to be justified (along with our warnings) because here’s what Bitcoin looks like this morning…

Like all really bad news – we’re still in the Denial Stage.  The Crisis part will begin next week, by our reckoning.

That will be evident, we suppose when the stock market gets into it’s “thousand points down days” which we also expect.

Reader LB down in Houston sent me a link to the Goldman story…they too are coming around to our view that the US economy is venturing in the “Sucks Zone” in 2019.  Gee, who’d have thought, huh?

Well, except for our Peoplenomics.com subscribers who got the heads-up on October 24 to be thinking in terms of “The Global Depression of 2021?

Not surprisingly, a few people in the Financial World are already warning that we could have some really scary times ahead in the markets.  But, pardon me, didn’t I tell you weeks back (October 26 to be exact) WHEN this would begin (Nov 9) and what has the market done since our “zero day”?  We can only imagine when our next round of “hot dates” shows up next week…

Here’s What Ugly Looks Like

Thank the people who are kind enough to support oure work, research, and writings over on the Peoplenomics.com site for making this kind of view possible.

THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

Yes, that yellow area is where we might be in a couple of weeks IF (God-forbid) our outlooks continue to be accurate.

Our view is the market MIGHT take a small bounce up from the bottom of the Wave 1 low, but only, perhaps, long enough to “kiss” the 9 Day Simple Moving Average.

That gets us to what happens – possibly next week.

So what will drive us down?

The list is long and fugly, but you need to understand that it’s not just one thing.  It’s a whole bunch of things – one of which will be popularized in market history…but in truth, a little bit of this, a little bit of that…

  • Global trade is being tinkered with.
    • The EU wants to tax non EU entities (like Google)
    • Trump wants some equality in tariffs
  • Bitcoin and the Cryptos are on the verge of blowing up.
    • Our view is they are no more “money” than Charles Ponzi’s postal coupon scam back when.
    • The proliferation of me-too cryptos means there are no effective barriers to entry – anyone can “make-up” a crypto
    • Crypto’s have no “intrinsic value.”  Unplug the computer and what is it?  Contrary to popular myth, what backs the US/Fed Reserve Note is the ability to tax people. Cryptos are essentially hollow. 
    • As the Bank for International Settlements noted in their report this year, there’s enough enough storage or computing horsepower for them to take over from a major currency…
    • What about the national radio host who was touting (with a promoter) $7,200 Bitcoin by Christmas?  We’re wondering how that is going to work out.  We have a few guesses…
    • No, Bitcoin profits are not tax-free.  The gains are taxable income.  Again, massive mis and disinformation has run rampant.
    • And here comes ReutersBitcoin for payments a distant dream as usage dries up.  – Gee, are we surprised? Hell no…we’ve been wrong – and the object of derision for a couple of years now. But in the end…it’s the long term that counts around here.
  • Consumer Super-Saturation.
    • Everyone who can get a job now has one
    • Everyone who wants to buy a “thing” already has a couple
    • Phones are super-saturaated
    • And judging by the obesity of America, we are shoveling food at record rates.
  • The “Climate Model” is in trouble – but so is the “Monetize Everything” movement.  This includes gender, sexual orientation, politics, extremism of all sorts.
  • The Military will be needed a LOT of money SOON.  And then there’s…
  • A fresh crop of idjits in Washington who DHAFC.  This ensures gridlock and we look forward to the government shutdown that becomes semi-predictable next year.
  • Massive homelessness.  We don’t call them Trumpville’s yet  but give it a year…these will be along as that’s what happens when the economy goes into toxic shock with financial assets falling apart.
  • Too many Fed rate hikes
  • The impacts of the Tax Bomb – limiting deductions for property taxes and local taxes…

In the very short term  with the market futures down 300 already today, there’s not much for us today but fry up some eggs and bacon and watch the follies.  It may be scary today, maybe tomorrow, but perhaps a break Friday, or so…we shall see.

But the bigger picture is that despite all the “popular delusions” out there (Complexity is good, Bitcoins will replace fiat money, check’s in the mail) the facts keep looking us in the face and wondering “How long can you be stupid?”

The answer, dear reader, is possibly very close at hand.

(Feel free to tell all your friends about UrbanSurvival – we have been more right than most and we’re not beholden to pressure from anyone…we’re just here to serve…)

Breaking: Housing Starts Report

So, In Other News…

Contrary to Al Gore and the IPCC, the only way to deal with climate will turn out to be the “old-fashioned way” – paying for the clean up.  As the Northeast could see accumulating snow; heavy rain in the West could produce mudslides,  we are hearing the damage estimates could top $13-billion – and likely will go higher.

What people don’t realize is that climate change marketing sets up a “double-dip” into your wallet.  Not only will home insurance premiums go up, but it the tax-the-climate promoters have their way, you’ll pay climate taxes, too.

We modeled this out years ago and have written about it ever since:”  The way to win was (and still may be) to live below your means and get into a sustainable living situation.  But oi, who listens, huh?

Consumer Choice hits a new low as Tennessee inmate must chose lethal injection, electric chair.

Don’t be surprised but… A Federal Judge Has Blocked the U.S. From Enforcing Trump’s Asylum Ban.  After all, U.S. District Judge Jon S. Tigar was appointed by that fellow before Trump.

By the way, long as we’re on this whole “madness on bordering” did you notice where Lowe’s to get rid of Mexico stores in further restructuring?  Actually, I’m saddened to read that: Mexico is a country that has almost unlimited growth ahead – if they can just get the government and the cartels to pitch in… strangely, no one asked us.  But, a tier-lower priced Mexican brand might be a winner…be good for the country.

Surf’s Up! Huge waves hit Tenerife in Spain’s Canary Islands.  Hey!  Might “climate change” improve surfing>?  Could we make that the next Big Thing?

Around the Ranch

I tweaked the typeface for headlines on the site a day or two back.  I live to have 2-3 typefaces on a page – gives an element of “design”  Some people, though like a single typeface.  I think that looks “flat” – so let me know what your sense of ‘art’ tells you.

Note to Chris Tyreman of the Chronicle Project who is also a first-rate graphics whiz:  We need to update the logo for Urban – something new for 2019?

We could get used to short work weeks like this one.  It’s given me enough time to work on ham radio gear.  My latest project being the restoration of an older Heathkit SB-303 receiver which is now doing -131 dbm on receive.  Honestly, I don’t there’s there’s much point to trying for much better.  That’s better than original specs and I’d like to move on to an old Hallicrafters SX-117 to dial it in a bit more before my consigliere – also an Extra Class ham, gets here next week.

With futures down 300, or do, we’re not too worried yet about our economic future as a country.  Because we know what an MCHVE looks like.  So far, declines globally have been somewhat even.  When they begin to differentiate?  Well, that’s when a massively correlated hyper-volatility event (a/k/a crash) can occur.  It’s like when everyone runs to one side of a boat – resulting in a capsize.

We shall see, perhaps as early as next week, huh?  Moron the ‘morrow…

 

 

 

26 thoughts on “Crypto-Night Falls: Bitcoin’s Dicey Future”

  1. George

    “My latest project being the restoration of an older Heathkit SB-303 receiver ”

    I have been doing the same with an old Heathkit IO-4550 dual trace scope that was given to me by She who must be obeyed in 1981.

    I’m going through all the circuit boards and replacing anything out of tolerance or not working. I am also revising the trigger circuit to use 74AS type TTL parts in an attempt to double the bandwidth of the scope. All single turn calibration pots have been replaced with 15 turn pots.

    A Tip: If you can find that old part you need for a restoration buy lots of spares! Parts common in the 1970’s are getting very hard to find.
    This is especially true of Through Hole type semiconductors. I had to get some from a guy in Hong Kong and the mail system was iffy on delivery.

    Good luck with that project and let us know how it turns out!!

  2. 2008 on Steroids, TPTB having papered over the mistakes,errors and outright criminal behavior with more of the same, cannot stop criticality event from taking place.
    IMHO we are in that event now, with several Itailian banks and one very big German bank about to go “bail-in”, 1 Hedge Fund blewout Friday already!
    Can hardly wait for US Banks&Hedge Funds to start succumbing to the spreading cotagion of bad DEBT/Derivitives..MOADB.
    And zo in with dealing with expslosive devices (debt bomb) EOD personnel need Ear Pro, Eye Pro, and Body Protection – these protective tools of the trade can be applied to Finance/markets.
    Eye Pro – Long Index Puts, Long Equity Puts, Long Levered SHORT ETF’s
    Ear Pro – Precious Metals
    Body Pro – food stores/stash, weapons stores/stash, fuel stores/stash

    Smoke em if you got em! Its gonna be a bumby ride, with class VI whitewater dead ahead.

    Holding off on any further derision regarding Cryptos, got all the time in the world to wait for Bitcoin and Litecoin to become widely adopted and accepted in the world..around 2020 by my estimation.

    • Sorry, but if you are holding Cryptos, they will become worthless. Something of value has to be more than an unregulated electron, for example, taxing ability of governments. When the banks take over Cryptos, backed by US Dollars, silver, gold, they will be worth a look.

      • I am curious ECS on how with the FRB fair out on this to.. the crypto’s is just as backed as the dollar bill… with AIR LOL.. the FRB is printing numbers so fast it would blind you to watch…the only difference is they print you can touch it hold it smell it.. that is the big thing with solar power to.. you can’t stroke it hold it smell it it just provides electricity…. if cryptos was to offer a coin or a piece of paper..I wonder if it would survive. I totally see a loaf of bread hitting a million dollars..If the upcoming K-Wave collapse is anything like what they are predicting.. it is going to be hell..

      • I think his point is dollars are backed by the power to tax – as my irs returns show, that’s a biggie.
        On the other hand, digital tulips have no such backing. No IRS, no Army, No Navy, etc…

  3. “We are not quite at the “Once again, I told you so…” stage, but damn, we are getting close.”

    What I didn’t like was that at the decisive points in time you always hedged with a *potential super five move.*

    Since you are ‘super smart’ in my opinion that may have caused a lot of uncertainty with your readers, including I.

    (Let’s face it, why keep on writing when making money would have been so easy)? No offense, or need to post my comment.) ;-) Btw. Just got back from the ER with two stents installed. So, most of all this is just academic in nature for me. Good luck, and Regards!

    • Glad you are well – posted because it is of general interest
      I have to be very circumspect as I do not offer financial advice.
      I do lay out breadcrumbs all over the place…and there’s a lot more on the subscriber side.. including the chart channels and such that make things really much clearer…

  4. “Sucks Zone” in 2019.”

    I’d expect earnings to be pretty good this quarter, than fall off a cliff.

    Trump Tariffs mostly kick-in on January 1. Rumor around these parts is the average car price is going up $4,000 on January 1st.

    F has already advertised mass-layoffs are coming. Today GM said there weren’t enough takers for the white-collar buyouts so layoffs are coming.

    • I shouldn’t be surprised. IF “American” automakers are buying steel from China, their cost of materials will go up about $70. That will give the automakers an excuse to pad their portfolios and reserves with a multi-thousand dollar price bump. It’ll also make the next round of UAW negotiations notably painless. It costs GM about $8600 to manufacture a standard-cab Silverado. Unless you’re a Class A or Fleet Buyer, you can buy an “undiscounted” one for anywhere from about $23000 to $48000. I’d assume Ford’s pricing is similar. Want a fancy one? Both the top-shelf Ford and Dodge top $80000 now.

      I have no sympathy for the automakers. If they’re buying junk, recycled steel from China, they’re mugging the buyer. If they’re not, the tariffs won’t affect them and they’re still mugging the buyer. In either case, they’re using the scary term “tariffs” as a convenient excuse to jack their prices.

      I also have no sympathy for anyone suffering from terminal “more money than brains disease,” who purchases a new truck and continues the feed the automakers’ obscene profit monster, regardless of its cause. I used to think it was obscene, that GM made $200 off of a Cavalier and $12000 off of a C/K. Dem wuz da good ol’ days…

  5. “Some” of us invested in Bitcoin a long time ago. Having read Ralph N. Elliott’s book in the 1990’s, I too have a distinct respect for channels and wave counts. And I didn’t sell any of my PM’s to do it. It was the one and only divestment I have done.

    I could still sell BTC for 20 times what I paid, but I think I will hodl whether they succumb to dust in the wind or not. Besides, I have zero invested now. It’s 10 years old now, and I’ve only been in 2 years, so I have ‘time’ on my side.

    “Ure” advice has been spot on though, for anyone who hadn’t already bought in prior to early 2017.

    I’ll hush, just rambling anyway, I reckon.

  6. The battle is on-

    Will Bitcoin triple in value in January from what it is today.

    Will digibyte become worth 600 * in January what it is today.

    Will the stock market become worth half as much as it is today in January.

    Will silver double in value in January.

    Will gold remain the same in January.

    Will real estate decrease by 10% in January and then increase 100% by April.

    I don’t know but have fun guessing and whatever you do if you’re one of those last ditch persons who says I’m going to bet it all on this one which I’ve done and lost a couple of times I would not advise that because it doesn’t work very well usually.
    So so spread it out buy some food by some solar panels buy some stock buy some gas buy some diesel the list goes on and on and on but I can tell you this the people of the past always use psychics to see into the future and sometimes the psychics lost their heads because they were incorrect but on the major part over a general spread the psychics were right.

    May all beings be lovingly fulfilled financially fulfilled and readily for Phil so be it.

    And if any of y’all have cancer or know of anybody that has cancer call one eight five five six two four 4772.

    Remember don’t let one thing get you down go around.

    And you never invest at the top unless you want a learning experience which I did last year I bought Bitcoin in January as it was going down then I sold it and bought Litecoin as it was going down and then I bought digibyte as it was going down throughout the year UC Bitcoin can’t go but x amount of Times Higher Litecoin can go a lot of times higher and digibyte right now if you bought it can go 600 Times Higher.

    Experience pays

  7. I’m a bit confused? Everybody is talking like these are the vaunted “End Times” for the stock market. They are queuing up Johnny Cash on the YouTube “There’s a man coming round”.

    But the S&P market index is still above the April low? I’m awaiting your chart analysis tomorrow. Hopefully it will clear things up.

    Sincerely confused

  8. Thank you for setting the red flags this year George. It helped me move to much more conservative investments. I manage to sleep at night unlike the 2008-2009 time period. Peoplenomics is one of my best investments.

    Happy Thanksgiving to you and all my American friends.

    Bob
    Canada

  9. Nice Heathkit job! I built an SB-102 transceiver back in the 70’s. I’m having fun with my new IC-7300 digital rig. I scored a SSB contact on my Antipode in South Africa with 100 watts on a longwire… on 40 meters! I hear the first sunspot polarity of the new cycle has been spotted. When band conditions are on the bottom like this, the only way left is up…. someday.

  10. And thanks to you and G.A.Stewart for the pointers to his website a day or two ago. More great research material reading!

  11. 2/2/18 Glenn Beck predicted bitcoin would crash to $8,000 and then make a comeback, and he also said that government regulation is the reason for a price drop and thinks it will be rebound with a vengeance.

    7/13/18 – TEEKA (Glenn’s crypto guru) said it could go to $100,000 in 2018. Bye the bye, Glenn was hawking Tesla’s crypto course.

    Conclusion: Glenn Beck will do or say anything to make a buck. There is room for the bulls, & there is room for the bears, but there is no room for the piggies.

    • I believe your conclusion is in error. Beck could’ve turned Mercury into a billion dollar asset, but deliberately didn’t. I Like Glenn Beck. That said, I haven’t listened to him in a couple years, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he followed the voices in his head, without first fact-checking their source. 15 years ago, he was an entertaining information resource. Now he’s just “entertainment…”

  12. “people in the Financial World are already warning that we could have some really scary times ahead in the markets.”

    Questions…
    Will this be as bad or twice as bad as the weimer depression.. Will it be like it unfolded in Africa where it costs ten million for a loaf of bread..
    A total reboot of society and the down fall of the FRB where currency has to be backed and all programs rewrote.. Or similar to Greece where the elderly were dumpster diving for food..and young women sell their bodies for a can of soup.
    Or can they stop the movement by dumping more water on the table to keep the economy flowing like they did in the early eighties with the tax rebates. They sunk the elderly by raping the SS funds and bailing out the banks..
    How many are like us faced with deep cuts to catch up with rising insurance costs.. I mentioned we were going Lien and low just to keep up with insurance cost increases.. The stop of the banana run has already gleaned us six hundred (which surprises me..I didn’t think it would be that much)
    I’m at the bottom..no fancy money investments..my life is payday to payday so I don’t have anything to loose..except home..
    How will this play out.

  13. I have not commented on the Cryptos but this will be of little benefit to the true belivers. After many years of studying economics (not as much as Ure) have concluded that they are the ultimate Greater Fools Game.

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