I hope my sources on several matters are dead-wrong, but they are usually not. So this morning I’m going to share some inputs with you and then offer up some action points both for you as well as your loved ones.
First, an email from my deflationist pal Jas. You know don’t him, but his technology is inside most routers along the internet’s backbone. He’s a PhD. in DSP and in addition he’s got a great eye for long waves in the economy.
I remember in 2001-2003 he was explaining to colleagues how he was using a “six-pack” strategy and had gone long on US bonds. As it turned out, a genius move: Bond yields collapsed and bond prices went through the roof. Since the Trump Bump began a year ago, bonds have flat-lined. But, Sunday he sent out a collegial email. Here’s the key part of it:
Here’s what he wrote:
“Five weeks ago I wrote: “…the most definitive signal would come when the Trump Tax Cut is passed–the classic buy on the rumor and sell on the news.”
Looks like we got the sell signal. For better or worse, I am acting on the signal and increasing my bet on the short side of Scams (well-known large tech Scams are up 65% in a year!) and long side of Treasury bonds. 36+ years long bull market in bonds is alive and well.
“It would be a bad idea to be long on New Years’ Eve. 2018 would be bad for the Donald and the bulls. Honeymoon would be over by then.”
To be sure, I began wading into a long-term short position when the Dow was 500 points lower than it was Friday. I was way too early. On the other hand, it was only with a small portion of my portfolio, and while it’s unnecessarily risky, I’m no stranger to taking chances.
What could drive a massive reversal now?
A note from Grady, chief code guru of our Nostracodeus software project that scans the net and assembles language. Grady’s note is self-explanatory:
“Senator Graham says Korean conflict is closer and it is time to send dependents out of the country.
Removing family members to safety is an early, but STRONG INDICATOR OF WAR APPROACHING.”
Then Sunday night we read “US orders 16,000 troops and 230 jets to get ready for WAR with North Korea.”
We need to be clear on a few things:
First, Lindsay Graham serves on the Senate Armed Services Committee. He’s also a retired (full) colonel (USAF).
When someone with his credentials and connections begins saying it’s time to move US dependents out of Korea, it means the clock is ticking.
We will not put out a date, but evacuation of dependents can be thought of generally as a 30-60 day countdown timer.
That would put the beginning of hostilities sometime in January or early February.
Strategically, it’s not a good thing: That’s when it’s colder than a well-diggers but in Korea – and because the ground is well-frozen, it’s easy for the NorKs to move around mechanized units.
We will keep you apprised of things in coming weeks as we notice more timing signals beginning to coalesce around the end of January to mid February area.
For now, however, there are a number of difficult planning exercises that you may wish to embark on.
If you live in areas that are under the threat of missiles from this part of Asia, ask yourself “What’s likely to be their use…and what will it do to us?”
While the NorKs may not be able to heft a fusion/H-bomb to the West, an enhanced yield conventional fission bomb, on the order of 300-500 kilotons, could definitely put a damper on party plans.
Since they are “resource constrained” we would expect them to attempt something like a Blitzkrieg attack. We would expect them to target U.S. bases in Korea, Japan, Guam, Hawaii. Then targets in Seattle and San Francisco would come up on their list.
OR: They could (falsely) claim the moral high ground by having nukes go off above the 63-mile mark were space begins. All fine and well, except this is where EMP pulses come from.
This means that the first step of planning would be to understand what the risks are for your geographical area.
Develop a dozen, or so, running cards for your family.
A “running card” is what pre-computer fire departments used when they conducted annual home and business fire prevention inspections.
A running card for a house might be: On smoke send one engine company, on visible flames send two engines and a ladder truck.
On a large multifamily unit, though, smoke might be pre-planned with two engine companies, a ladder truck, and a battalion chief.
The same kind of thinking can be applied here.
If there’s EMP, what is your course of action?
If there’s a series of missiles aimed at key defense installations, what then?
Do you know the prevailing winds above your city? And do you know how to leave the city (first is always better than last) in the event timing is close and we get more advance warning?
Do you have a “fallback home?”
In other words, are you on sufficiently good terms with people in the country, people with prepper supplies or gardening and stored goods, that you could land there are plug right into to the instant cooperatives that will provide relief and recovery for city people?
Sure, knowledge of nuclear contamination is useful. The defining book is Nuclear War Survival Skills: Updated and Expanded 1987 Edition.
To be sure, lots of people think nuclear war kills everyone. But the facts run contrary. Lots of people do. The real loses – bigger than nukes – will likely be the food, farming, energy, communications, and financial issues that will follow the outbreak of hostilities.
The another thing to be keeping an eye on: There’s a term in finance called “disintermediation.” In finance, Disintermediation is the removal of intermediaries in economics from a supply chain, or cutting out the middlemen in connection with a transaction or a series of transactions.
But in a military context, it’s the moving of key manufacturing out of what is likely to become contested war zones.
And this process is already well underway. The Nikkei Asia Review reported just last month that 42 South Korean companies to invest $17bn in US by 2021.
To be sure, the Pollyanna’s would have you believe that China will keep North Korea from “doing anything stupid.” They will even cite stories like “North Korean companies in China ordered to close.”
But the fact is, that development is measured from October 1st and 120-days on gets us to February and diplomatic excuses can add months of waffle-time. Besides, that China gets from North Korea is actually pretty small. Trade with China represents 57% of North Korea’s imports and 42% of its exports.
Not to begin the week with a “bummer” but it’s getting on toward time to dust off the “nuclear survival skills” training. NIOSH-N-100 masks are always useful things to have on hand. Sheet plastic and duct tape is useful, too. Bottled water? Sure.
There’s one other thing to consider. Peoplenomics subscriber Roger (who sends us many news tips, thanks Roger), pointed out this story which ought to be on all California reading lists: Parkfield segment of San Andreas fault may host occasional large earthquakes.
Prepping, admittedly, sounds at times like paranoia. UNTIL you need some of that stored food, water, medical supplies, or comms gear.
When things hit the fan, paranoid flips pretty quickly to visionary. But, the choice is yours…we’re just tossing out some data points that will be buried under millions of useless words on social just-us minutia.
Write when you get rich,