Coding Randomness

Been working on some ideas for artificial intelligence (AI) to distill into a spreadsheet to make investment decisions.  Turns out, though, one of the most difficult things to model is how the human brain “creates” ideas. Importantly, there’s an aspect of “randomness” to it.

But, since we have already evolved a model of Life as our Seven Major Systems, there arise many questions about how “bounded randomness”  (or pseudo-randomness) is.

And that has some interesting implications, which we will get into after a few newsy-kind of remarks and our ChartPack.  This morning’s podcast (37-min audio) is here.

More for Subscribers      |||     SUBSCRIBE NOW!       |||   Subscriber Help Center

35 thoughts on “Coding Randomness”

  1. “Been working on some ideas for artificial intelligence (AI) to distill into a spreadsheet to make investment decisions. ” one of the most difficult things to model is how the human brain “creates” ideas. Importantly, there’s an aspect of “randomness” to it.”

    Did I ever tell you the story about one of the guys I had that contacted me about an issue he was having with a project.. WELL.. we became friends and after several years he came up with this very idea for a project that they were working on in the think tank..
    I in turn had a lengthy ethics discussion on developing a self aware software that has the ability to create idea’s and act on them from Random accumulated data..

    even though it sounds good.. look out of the box and Think about it for a few moments.. and the overall affects that something like that could create.everything has a starting point and a self aware analytical computer for anything is one starting point… If you were a self aware computer.. and you analyzed all the data that came out in media social media and our actions towards each other and our environment.. What would you do?

    although a cherry 2000 could be fun.. LOL..

    there is good and bad to everything.. LOL

    • my thought is if it was a dog.. it would scratch the fleas off of it…..they are already developing robotics that can run up flights of stairs at what 37 miles an hour.. now put a self aware computer on board with access to the cloud.. just a thought to pass on…

    • Need to instill restraints. The steps for achieving the goal of making money is far different than those for the goal of making money for a specific project. Thou shalt not covet but is greed unethical if there is no malice?

      • nothing wrong with making money , as long as you give half of it to the governments (federal ,state,local) that ALLOW you to keep the other half …..this does not include the fees the same benevolent governments charge you on your use of utilities ….so consider yourself lucky to live in a ‘free’ society protected by government ….and go forth and prosper….you have a lot to be thankful for and also to support….

      • D….. Half in taxes…LOL LOL .I would like to know where in this country that they only take half of your earnings …
        Or maybe you just didn’t play out the tax structure far enough… last count I had was around seventy percent goes out for some form of tax..

        Federal income tax
        State income tax
        Local income tax
        Employee social security tax (your employer pays the other half)
        Employee Medicare tax (your employer pays the other half)
        Property taxes
        Road toll charges
        State sales tax
        Driver’s license renewal fee
        TV Cable/Satellite fees & taxes
        Federal telephone surtax, excise tax, and universal surcharge
        State telephone excise tax and surcharge
        Telephone minimum usage and recurring/nonrecurring charges tax
        Gas/electric bill fees & taxes
        Water/sewer fees & taxes
        Cigarette tax
        Alcohol tax
        Federal gasoline tax
        State gasoline tax
        Local gasoline tax
        Federal inheritance tax
        State inheritance tax
        Gift tax
        Bridge toll charges
        Marriage license
        Hunting license
        Fishing license
        Bike license fee
        Dog permit/license
        State park permit
        Watercraft registration & licensing fees
        Sports stadium tax
        Bike/nature trail permit
        Court case filing fee
        Retirement account early withdrawal penalty
        Individual health insurance mandate tax
        Hotel stay tax
        Plastic surgery surcharge
        Soda/fatty-food tax
        Air transportation tax
        Electronic transmission of tax return fees
        Passport application/renewal fee
        Luxury & gas-guzzler car taxes
        New car surcharge
        License plate and car ownership transfer taxes
        Yacht and luxury boat taxes
        Jewelry taxes & surcharges
        State/local school tax
        Recreational vehicle tax
        Special assessments for road repairs or construction
        Gun ownership permit
        Kiddie tax (IRS form 8615)
        Fuel gross receipts tax
        Waste Management tax
        Oil and gas assessment tax
        Use taxes (on out-of-state purchase)
        IRA rollover tax/withdrawal penalties
        Tax on non-qualified health saving account distributions
        Individual and small business surtax (page 336 of Obamacare)
        Estimated income tax underpayment penalty
        Alternative Minimum Tax on income
        Business Taxes & Fees
        Federal corporate income tax
        State corporate income tax
        Tax registration fee for new businesses
        Employer social security tax
        Employer Medicare tax
        Federal unemployment tax
        State unemployment tax
        Business registration renewal tax
        Worker’s compensation tax
        Tax on imported/exported goods
        Oil storage/inspection fees
        Employer health insurance mandate tax
        Excise Tax on Charitable Hospitals (page 2001/Sec. 9007 of Obamacare)
        Tax on Innovator Drug Companies (Page 2010/Sec. 9008 of Obamacare)
        Tax on Medical Device Manufacturers (Page 2020/Sec. 9009 of Obamacare)
        Tax on Health Insurers (Page 2026/Sec. 9010 of Obamacare)
        Excise Tax on Comprehensive Health Insurance Plans, i.e. “Cadillac” plans
        Tax on indoor tanning services
        Utility users tax
        Internet transaction fee (passed in California; being considered in other states and at federal level)
        Professional license fee (accountants, lawyers, barbers, dentists, plumbers, etc.)
        Franchise business tax
        Tourism and concession license fee
        Wiring inspection fees
        Household employment tax
        Biodiesel fuel tax
        FDIC tax (insurance premium on bank deposits)
        Electronic waste recycling fee
        Hazardous material disposal fee
        Food & beverage license fee
        Estimated income tax underpayment penalty
        Building/construction permit
        Zoning permit

        Fire inspection fee
        Well permit tax
        Sales and Use tax seller’s permit
        Commercial driver’s license fee
        Bank ATM transaction tax
        Occupation taxes and fees (annual charges required for a host of professions)
        road tax
        tire disposal tax
        battery disposal tax
        land fill tax

        if you pen it out.. it does get a little depressing.. which is why I think most people don’t think about them..

  2. A few things:

    1) There is such a thing as a “continuous random variable within bounded limits.” This can be thought of as a fractal variable, where small segments of the curve (plot, breadcrumb trail) visually strongly resemble the zoomed-out curve’s longer shape. One example I like is the width of the sand at the edge of the road. It varies continuously, but not periodically, within the limits of the actual edge of the hard road, where passing tires beat it back, and the far side of the ditch where the land beyond the right-of-way defines the distant limit. Within those boundaries, the “width” of the sand margin varies randomly. Any very short-term “future” width is unpredictable. It resembles a shoreline.

    2) I submit Quantum Computers must be self-aware on some level, however rudimentary. By definition, their “state” at any given instant is unknowable and undefinable in the same manner as measuring a particle’s position AND velocity at the same instant MUST interfere with the “actuality” of it: it’s unknowable. The instant we “observe” the state, we interfere with it, and the wave function of all the possibilities (within fractal limits) collapses into a single Realized Reality.

    Things that are unobserved are therefore in a Quantum Free State until a consciousness — such as yours — “observes” them.

    This suggests that an unobservable or incomprehensible thing may very easily be in a Quantum state of unrealized and unrealizable reality.

    A good question is HOW intelligent or self aware must a qualified “observer” be? Can a cat or a dog be a qualified observer? How about a worm? How about a single-cell living thing? Is “Observer” status ONLY for human beings? Are extremely intelligent humans “better” observers than stupid ones?

    Can a Quantum Computer BE a “Qualified Observer?”

    If it tells you that it’s self-aware, must you believe that?

    3) I have for a very long time — a few decades — believed that because of all the intricately interlocking and interdependent delivery systems that constitute “Modern Life,” that a widespread cascade failure could cause the wheels to fall off the global civilization entirely within about a week. Re-booting it all would be an extremely long-term thing, and may not actually be possible. Or, at best, can’t be accomplished without enormous and permanent damage and huge loss of life beyond our imagination.

    4) The United States is temporarily in a weakened and confused chaotic state IN THE PERCEPTION OF SOME OF OUR ENEMIES. People act in concert with what they BELIEVE, and NOT with what the actual Truth of the matter is.

    The source of this erroneous perception is because few foreign governments truly deeply understand American Civilization. Doesn’t matter: if they BELIEVE we are in a weakened and chaotic state, they will perceive latitude for Action that the U.S. (they think) would be unwilling to unable to counter. That’s a very dangerous condition — and all the vitriolic division in this country supports that erroneous assessment.

    The division and vitriol courts — tempts — our destruction.


    • “There is such a thing as a “continuous random variable within bounded limits.” This can be thought of as a fractal variable, where small segments of the curve (plot, breadcrumb trail) visually strongly resemble the zoomed-out curve’s longer shape.”

      AMEN…. William

      That is exactly what I think to…

  3. I am intrigued by the comment you made about millionaires don’t track astrology, but billionaires do. Actually, that was a comment made by JP Morgan, but I think both millionaires and billionaires practice and engage in astrology, but sub millionaires and all the way down the social ladder in a sub exponential downward curve definitely do not.

    The reason? Millionaires and to a much higher level, billionaires are doers, thought leaders, masters of their domain and commanders of the money flow. They are exploring all angles to be better and are conscious of the mastery of mind set and the positive results that occur when they put themselves in a position of winning.

    A daily routine of mine is to explore a compilation of planetary charts plus horoscope readings. One such reading the other day said.

    ”Continue to put your best foot forward and other peoples interest in you will only increase. Your recent hard work may be rewarded as you gain the respect of an authority figure. Youre likely to attract the praise of those who are more established in your craft now, possibly because you are demonstrating maturity in your discipline.”

    That’s not in any way a prediction…it’s a suggestion, so I put myself into that mindset to make that happen that particular day ( this past Monday) and I did gain the public respect of our regional director…BUT…I made that happen. It wasn’t meant to happen…Nothing is…

    That’s the difference between the sub millionaires and the their richer counterparts. The subs think it’s their destiny and miraculously the event will happen. And time and time again they will dig themselves deeper and deeper into a hole. They are dreamers, not doers. Sheep not wolves.

    The universe is all giving us clues and suggestions, but unless people act upon those in a massively dedicated way, they will be stuck on the hamster wheel of life.

    • “but sub millionaires and all the way down the social ladder in a sub exponential downward curve definitely do not.”

      That is interesting.. I am at the very bottom of the economic scale.. and I follow the horoscope.. so does everyone else that I know..
      The issues though are the ability to take advantage of the opportunities that pass you by..
      Many people in the lower levels of the economic spectrum don’t have the ability to take advantage of those oportunities.. many young college kids.. end up so far in debt that the thought of taking advantage of any opportunities is beyond their scope. One in two are on social programs.. a college grad making thirty bucks an hour but having to pay ten an hour back in tuition costs.. is still only making twenty bucks an hour..
      a stroll down most any street in sanfran would show you that. just make sure you wear shoe protectors other wise your wife will say god what is that smell. many just scroll through the astro charts out of curiosity.. if you notice all astro projections are similar to fortune cookies.. they all say the same message..
      I personally would love to get fortune cookies that have varied messages on it..

      • Lookingout of the box,

        I did not mean that post to be read in a derogatory way. But if you want the secret sauce of being rich and not…it’s about mindset. And your comment about people at the lower rungs not having opportunities are not altogether true.. Everyone has opportunities…How many rags to riches stories are out there in America. Tons…

        Yes some have been dealt bad hands all their lives due to bad social environment, parents, etc. and just give up. I get that. It’s sad. I try to do my part I and other agents in my company donate a portion of our earnings to help disadvantaged youth to learn STEM skills. We have been doing that for the past 10 years. Many take advantage and take that skill to the next level., some do not. It’s about mindset…which we all try to preach each and every time we have a chance to. Bottom line…it’s still not even close to being enough.

        Listen, I admit, I live in a bubble where college grads are making $20 a MINUTE when counting stock options and other perks. I may not be the best judge for the rest of the country. But here, on our streets paved in gold, mind set is the mantra…

      • Earning $30 and paying a debt of $10 does not result in earning $20. The debt is not dependent upon the income. You can make $30 and default on the debt, keeping the $30. You can make $30 and pay $20 towards the debt. You can lose the income and still owe $10 on the debt. You can earn more than $30 and still owe, default, or overpay the debt. Lots of options. But I see your point about how debt erodes purchasing power.

      • “I and other agents in my company donate a portion of our earnings to help disadvantaged youth to learn STEM skills.”

        I think that is wonderful what your doing Mark.. it truly is.. the opportunities I had that passed me by I either didn’t notice them when they passed me by or times were so tough that there wasn’t any way in the world for me to take advantage of them.
        the one that bugs me the most was Microsoft… I had scrimped and saved to get twenty five hundred dollars.. a brand new stock hit the market and I thought hot dam here is my chance.. and couldn’t make the trade.. no one would make a twenty five hundred dollar trade.. they wanted me to get twenty of my friends to go in and then they would do it.. I did get two others but it wasn’t enough..
        Then during my younger years I was hit by a few wild cards.. a boss that bet on the stock market and lost.. he bet our insurance money we thought we had insurance but we didn’t.. a wife that got a medical device that wasn’t tested and ended up with serious medical issues as well.. ( which is why I hate insurance companies.. right now we spend about fifty percent of our gross income on health insurance alone for the wife only. because insurance industry can openly discriminate I totally expect it to double in the next year to try and get her off of the insurance)
        I have the ability and the capacity.. I didn’t have the paper and given the one two punch that killed any chances of me advancing.(I quit one group I belonged to because they would razz me about not doing better than what I was doing.. they didn’t take into account the opportunities we all have pass us by but the inability to take advantage of them). part of that is my own fault to.. when I should have been trying to get the scholarships I was trying to dumb myself down to fit in with the social crowd…. in my experience that one sheet of paper is the winning ticket.. even if it only means that you were willing to spend a great deal of money hang out and part for x years.

        The problem lies in the average cost of living.. I budget 350.00 a month per person for food.. daycare .. healthcare.. housing.. transportation…etc.. many are left with very little to invest in anything..
        Heck even now.. with the issues that I was dealth that were beyond my control there is only one banker that will write me a loan for whatever I want.. (I told him he needs to introduce me to one of his associates so when he retires I will have someone I can go to ) I knew him when he was a new student in college working part time.. he manages a bank now..
        Its like my wifes boss.. I know he doesnt’ see it.. but he is in a bad place financially.. I don’t even have to peek at his books.. I know that boy is juggling like hell to stay afloat..even if his income status is way over a million a month..that is the true problem.. the average even small business owners don’t have the ability to invest..if they do it is taken away.. I tell all the kids.. buy savings bonds.. start right away.. just do it.. same amount that you pay out for ss… you will be shocked..but you have to start young. so far only one has taken my advice..he is my little engineer.. his income he makes good but has school loans at about fourteen dollars an hour..the good thing is he is single and no kids..

      • exactly joe…

        what killed me is I had a boss that had seen the boost in the stock market.. he also figured that the average cost of the insurance for his employees he could easily double the money spent.. the average didn’t spend the deductible towards healthcare.. so he took the money that the employee’s were paying and invested it..
        what killed me was I had a kid fell out of a tree punctured his lung and heart and had to to have a specialist surgical team flown in to fix it.. he was in intesnsive care for months.. the bill was just shy a half million.. I made just shy three dollars an hour.. It killed anything I could ever plan for in the future over that one action.. the stock market took a dive and he went broke.. all in the matter of about three months..
        the kids pay out about two grand a month just for daycare.. plus all the other expenses.. our insurance is just at fifty percent of our gross income.. maybe just shy our gross.. all because my wife now had gotten sick once in the eighties..
        the gentleman we are helping right now.. lost everything because of insurance.. his wife was a RN working for a major hospital in the USA.. got sick.. the hospital is notorious for letting people go that get sick or can’t do their job.. then insurance spikes.. she of course fought the illness.. but it eventually took her down.. the hospital and the banks took everything.. he is having a tough time of accepting this.. but it is what it is.. we took him in so he wouldn’t be homeless.. seen it more times than I would like to think about..
        I tell everyone stay away from disability policies.. or they should make them write them on two ply puffed paer in four inch rolls perferated every four inches…. LOL.. at least them you could get some use out of the policy.. I of course would like to be like expat.. which reminds me.. I haven’t seen any post by expat in a long time now..I wonder if he is ok..

      • “not having opportunities are not altogether true.. ”

        What I meant wasnt that they dont have opportunities.. we all have them pass us by..
        What I meant was to have the ability to take advantage and act on them..

        As time passes and more people are forced to get on social programs the gap will widen.
        As a test. Check to see whether or not your hourly employees are getting them. That would give you a good idea.
        We dont get any of them. I do pretty good with what we have.
        For society as a whole it’s not looking good though.
        Which simikar to the weimar depression is the in of the socialist agenda that could imprison the wealthier members of society like ww2

  4. Collapse – Schmollapse

    Dude George helicopter money is coming to a town near U soonly – the BerNanke has written and what the hand has writ..

    As the artist formerly Alive and known as Prince once said..” So tonight we gonna party like its 1999!” never mind the rest of song was about Dreaming and the destruction of the world..

    • Crazy times when conservative Democrat or liberal Republican starts making sense. Our lives are a series of events towards some outcome. Can’t really change the paths, only our emotional experiences along the way. Everything is simply preparation for something later. Deja vu is affirmation but don’t get obsessed with it.

      • …Makes perfect sense, once you understand that “Republican” and “Democrat” are private venture-capital corporations.

        They fund “comparative ideology” locally, but not necessarily anything (from an ideological standpoint), regionally or nationally. An example is Susan Collins. Ms. Collins would be considered a neo-socialist, nearly everywhere between WV and the left coast, but in Maine, whose sparse population is principally concentrated in its cities (which are very Liberal), she’s considered a “Moderate Republican,” essentially the least Liberal person who could be elected. Therefore the Republican Corporation funds her campaigns and supports her lifestyle.

        “Political party” is a misnomer. “Political organization” or “Political corporation” are much more accurate, hence the “Primary Elections Rules” by the DNC in 2016, which made it impossible for Sanders to beat Clinton, irrespective the States’ vote totals…

      • You guys are sugar-coating partisan political gangs. The politico’s objective is always to control and exploit. Everything else is just window dressing designed to elicit voluntary compliance by the electorate. Republics can’t seem to function without ’em; however, when you start thinking that everything that any of the them says make perfect sense, then you are definitely a serf in trouble.

      • Not sugar-coating it at all, n____.

        Joe’s comment was in RE: “conservative Democrat” and “liberal Republican” making sense. My response was to infer that the terms make sense because they’re determined by the VC corp a candidate tags for his(her) funding.

        Causation or goals not mentioned.

        For the above, and also the reason D’s and R’s seem to have few differences in their National goals (note my use of the word “goals”), I’d recommend reading “None Dare Call it Conspiracy,” a bestselling book from the 1960s…

  5. Some excellent comments today by far all the way around. The bottom line is the FED! It has a printing press, and it will work until it doesn’t. When doesn’t happens, and it inevitably will at some point I’m not so sure that one gold and silver coin we’ve both been hoarding George is going to mean too much. We will just have to wait and see in the fullness of time!

  6. The Podcast Popular Mechanics nostalgic Tech changes over the last 50 years review was splendid. Very interesting.

  7. no everybody is a guru .. dalios amazing school of patriotic exuberance and monetising .. pull and release accordingly stockmarket and gold levers.. trouble is debt grows faster still than lever pulling and releasing .. but ray and old salty at 321 will jawbone some story

  8. George that security bloke who looks after the joint is avi Friedman. Reckons your a good bloke . I said mostly

  9. did Americas new allies iran send up a few ? gold up ? whats the story for the robots ? aliens ?

  10. Sure computers can be programed and preform all sorts of amazing math. But where DO ideas come from? That is what separates us permanently from machines. There are no random events in computers or AI… except power faliures

    • No, actually, that’s the whole point of the randomness question and why in the article I focus on the lake of a programming analogy to the very human fun ct5ion “like” – and there’s you’re AI barrier – the ability to generalize.

Comments are closed.