Crawford Was Correct and Retail Sails

I mentioned on the Peoplenomics report Wednesday that the fellow who is probably America’s  best financial astrologer, Arch Crawford, was predicting a long-lasting impact – on the order of  years from an event – that would happen sometime in the past week.

Well, to us, it looks like he has nailed it.  On the other hand, sometimes the “big news” with huge carry-values off into the future, are not so apparent down at the “local sheep level.”

The story?  Russia has dissolved its Parliament and Vladimir Putin is in the process of “de-presidenting” Russia a bit.  As  Russia Today ( noted in its coverage:

“It is an attempt to transform a super-centralized personified system of power into a more balanced and diversified one… with a strong president but not as strong as today.”

A couple of long-term facts are coming to light:

First is that since the fall of the Soviet Union and the de facto collapse of Stalinist communism ( since adopted by Bernie Sanders’ campaign staff), Russia has been moving to become a much more competitive semi-democratic state.

Second, this is not necessarily “good” for the U.S. because there are certain dynamics in  play that could make Russia a more desirable place (in the long term), than the United States.  Especially if the democratization drift continues.

Postulating a bit, I rather expect Putin would have become  even less powerful and even  more subservient to elected power, except for one thing:  The U.S. Impeachment debacle.

I have a lot of respect for Putin – it would be interesting to have a beer with the bloke – but here he is, giving a bit more power to their elected Parliament.  He would likely have gone  even further, were we not witness to what happens when a left-wing uprising overtakes on house of congress.

Putin’s no doubt figuring – just as we have – that the Money Wing of the Democrat Party is going to steamroller Bernie, Liz, and Amy by simply dragging the Impeachment debacle out long-enough to keep all senators in their chairs ahead of Super Tuesday.  This (what Nancy is doing) will pave the way to Mike Bloomie to come in and write enough checks to “big-shot his way in.”  My consigliere reports you can’t turn on the telly in Ohio without seeing 3-4 Bloomie ads per break

Trust you saw the  Project Veritas report on how a senior Bernista campaigner is threatening violence if Bernie doesn’t sell with the voters.  This is the mod God-awful, screwed-up, contorted mess I’ve been  in a long time!

Essentially, with Putin reorganizing things, the debacle/collapse here in latter-day Rome has likely prevented Putin from relaxing his reins of power, even more.

But understand, this is all  part of the plan of the Globalist Cabal:  We need to be ruled over by fear-mongering “Big Powers” and having Russia declare itself to be turning inward and focusing on its own Nation-building, would have a calamitous impact on the U.S. financial markets, because much of the war-making implement trade would begin to fold-up.  And there’s too much “money in dying” to tolerate  that.

Let’s look at just a few objective data points, however, and see where Russia is really going:

  1. They have been not  easy to deal with in Syria,, but on the other hand, we haven’t gone up the  escalation path.
  2. The “land grab in Ukraine” was a two-fold project any school-child (but maybe not John Bolton or the neocons) could recognize.  Russia was a) getting back a warm-water port and b) they were restoring the Russian perimeter to Tsarist times.  Repeat after me:  Catherine the Great.  Remember, Russia has had females in national leadership roles while we?  Not so much…
  3. Putin is looking at building an economy not so dependent on making up soft social industries like the U.S.  While we are cranking out degrees and grants to promote climate, genderism, racial divides, and a victimology culture,
  4. Russia is already facing the prospect of a  declining populationMore details in Wikipedia citing “As of 1 January 2019, the population of Russia is 144,438,554 excluding Crimea and Sevastopol, whose annexation is not recognized by most UN members. Including Crimea and Sevastopol, the population is 146,801,931 as of January 2, 2020.[12] Compared to the previous year, the population decreased in Russia by 99,712, the result of a net migration gain of 124,884, and a natural population loss of 224,566. ” Ure bottom line here is they have less than half our population…and with negative population growth, not a very strong case for expansionism or war-making.
  5. The U.S., meantime, is pressing (through un-voted policies) an attack on its once white majority (which will become a minority in less than 20-years – with no voting or discussion of a 35% racial profile in less than 70 years – not quite genocide, but racism?  You tell me…), to convert the former Anglo’s to non-breeders, and bring in more immigrants to create minion jobs and expand the US social services bureaucracies.  Which will swell the military and improve gang membership – this last of which which will demand more police which will require more taxes, more consolidation of central government authority in the U.S……The data is stark! Everything Is a Business Model.
  6. Meantime, with less than half our population?  Russia’s land mass 6.3 million square miles.  The U.S. is 3.8 million square miles.  Repeat after me: 25% of the population density.

Let’s roll it up here, since writing geography curriculum is not our main focus, although demograchy drives a lot of things.

Putin’s anti-gay policies are because Russia’s in negative growth.  Virility and offspring are the tonic. The U.S. is promoting genderism to neuter a class of residents. However, we’re somewhat heartened to report James Bond: Barbara Broccoli says character ‘will remain male’.

Seriously? Government ought to be neutral on such matters, but the data argues government’s aren’t. It’s a “new industry” after all. (We’d offer a statistical comparison of long-term population impacts of religious policies too, since gov’t’s aren’t alone; citing the Vatican and Islamic leaderships, but again, what does that have to do with making a buck?)

Key Takeaway:  The U.S. needs not one, but  two enemies – one for either side of the country.  Russia has been enough of a threat to NATO that the East Coast can worry and China for the West Coast.  Military spending, right and left.

If Putin turned Russia into a more democratic, less nuclear, greater growth potential country, sustainable, lower cost civilization, care to take a wild-ass guess who that might be negatively impacted by that in the long run?

We score it a direct hit for Arch Crawford.  Like the commercial says “This changes everything.”  Shhh… Don’t mention this to the sleeping flock.

Retail Sails

Spending to the Ending is America’s friending…

Details?  “Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $529.6 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, and 5.8 percent (±0.7 percent) above December 2018. Total sales for the 12 months of 2019 were up 3.6 percent (±0.4 percent) from 2018. Total sales for the October 2019 through December 2019 period were up 4.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago.  The October 2019 to November 2019 percent change was revised from up 0.2 percent (±0.4 percent)* to up 0.3 percent (±0.3 percent)*. Retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent (±0.4 percent)* from November 2019, and 6.0 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 19.2 percent (±1.4 percent) from December 2018, and gasoline stations were up 11.3 percent (±1.2 percent) from last year. ”

Good related article in Fortune today: Exclusive: Consumer confidence nears a record high in the U.S., but dips in China and Europe.

Money, Money, Money

Cue some theme music!

Figured a warm-up for the Fed Repo Depot report would be worthwhile:

They doled-out how many billion today?  $ 74.15 -billion.  Dow futures up more than 75 when last checked.

And Bitcoins were going for $8,727 earlier.  Repeat after me:  “America unhinged!

In the Shorts

Family up north is not amused: Winter storm that pummeled Pacific Northwest heads east.  And my buddy “the Major” reported snow on the ground in the Tacoma area, so no need to “go to the moutains ”  Climate change is bringing it to the PNW low-landers.

In fairness to the weather-monetizers and carbon creditors, warm enough to BBQ hear yesterday.  Cooling to a high of only 68 today, but it will be back to freezing Monday.  Super warm in Russia this winter, BTW, speaking of Ruskies, as we were.  One lawmaker there blaming US Climate Weapons.

We keep asking “What’s Boeing’s plan, here?” Southwest pulls Boeing 737 Max until June as airlines dig in for longer delays.

Trump Trade Deal aside, Iran says Europeans “sold out” nuke deal under Trump’s tariff threat.  Yeah…un-huh… NY Times DealBook: Winners and Losers of the Trade Deal.  And back to  Fortune for analysis figuring ‘Unrealistically high:’ Experts doubt China can fulfill its targets in ‘Phase One’ of the U.S. trade deal.

And the Pillage of Taxpayers continues as On Taxpayers’ Dime, Foreigners Get Free College In US.

If you haven’t read it yet, this comes from Rand Paul’s  2019 Festivus report is a dandy expose on government waste in excess of $50-billion last year.  Among his picks:

  • Bought an elementary school gym scoreboard at a 491% markup (BIA)  $13,000  ?
  • Sent international students to college for free (State) $15,825,000
  • Studied the habits of online dating app users (NIH and NSF)$1,200,000
  • Taught Lao to Laotians (USAID) $20,000,000
  • Improved the quality of TV in Moldova (State) $2,000,000
  • Paid to teach social scientists how to apply for grants (NSF) $103,777
  • Allowed the 1033 Program to be abused (DOD) $2,711,255
  • “Tested” whether social justice improves STEM education (NSF) $649,773
  • Funded a week of summer school for grad students (NSF) ……………………… $49,990
  • Developed 6 undergrad course units on food marketing (NIFA) $128,054

We found the report, here, an extremely useful read, especially when it comes to the State Dept. giving away money:

“For millions of Americans, community colleges offer an affordable option for receiving a college education and gaining a competitive edge in the job market.  But despite American families scrimping and saving to afford college, the State Department is using your taxes to pay the tuition of international students enrolled in American community colleges.
Avid readers of The Waste Report may recall a 2015 entry in which we exposed the profligate spending of the Community College Initiative (CCI),8 an exchange program that, according to the State Department, “provides scholarships [to students from other countries] to spend up to one academic year at U.S[.] community colleges.”9  Since this program is so out of step with the Trump administration’s agenda, one might have expected it to have been ended by now.   “

This is not to say America’s past saving.  But we certainly aren’t past spending, either…

Moron the ‘morrow, and write when you get rich…




33 thoughts on “Crawford Was Correct and Retail Sails”

  1. Yeah Free Money Everywhere! Dollars out the wazoo for any and all who dare to partake..

    Just BUY the market – its going higher – it always goes higher – right? No worries the FED has Ure back – what could possibly go wrong?? Lever up and Buy more – its going higher baby!


    • Is bitcoin the new currency of value replacing Gold. It’s return would indicate that, & Millenials love it. I bought $100 of bitcoin on the Cash App @ $6,666 & it has outperformed Gold. Stay Happy for another day.

  2. George,

    Sorry to disagree, but I see Vlad seeking more power, not less. He can’t serve another term as President, but he could be Prime Minister again, which would be selected by the Parliament. As PM, he would exercise powers granted by – wait for it – the enhanced-powers Parliament and those powers could trump (NPI) those of the now-weaken President.

    • This is correct. George, you got that wrong this time. He did that before and he is doing that again. Where do you think Trump got the idea of President for life?

      Putins surprise announcement came after Putin proposed constitutional amendments that would strengthen the powers of the prime minister and parliament at the expense of the presidency. Putin’s critics have suggested that he is considering various scenarios to retain control of the country after his presidential term ends in 2024, including the option of becoming prime minister with extended powers. Similarly, in 2008 Putin swapped places with the prime minister to circumvent the constitutional provision banning the same person from serving two consecutive terms.

      On another note…as it relates to another initiative of yours…extending life…I watched an interesting documentary on Netflix last night called Gamechangers. It’s about how plant based diets hold the key to recovery in athletes and long life in human’s I need to do a bit more research, but damn did it make sense.

      • This will have to be a second beer bet when I get to SF/ I’m pretty sure, Vlad will be recasting himself as the more moderate than, oh, the rabid left in this country. Would I trust him> No. But the older vlad has gotten, the more important his historical image has become and becoming the Catherine the Great spin-off that restores the borders of Empire and doesn’t get into war…I think that’s the shoo-in.
        It also makes excessive US defense spending less likely.

      • ” He did that before and he is doing that again.”

        Exactly correct.

        “Vlad will be recasting himself as the more moderate than, oh, the rabid left in this country. Would I trust him> No.”

        He already is.

        IMO Putin is the best leader Russia could have, and one of the best Heads of State in the world. What the Putin idolizers don’t consider (and I do) is he’s the RUSSIAN leader, and inherently does “what’s best” for RUSSIA, which may not be favorable to any other nation.

  3. George,

    I couldn’t help watching the Democrat parade from Congress to the Senate with Articles of Impeachment yesterday and thinking how much it reminded me of one of the early scenes in Christmas Vacation when Mr. Shirley and his minions are marching down the hallway to demand Clark Griswold get them a report.

  4. From Arch Crawford January 6 CP newsletter:

    Prediction: Some really important Page One happenings will occur in several parts of the world during this one week period = January 9-16. This may include the death of many [U.S. 9/11; Japan tsunami], the death of important folk [Princess Diana, John Kennedy, Martin Luther King], revolutionary violence involving crowds [Tiananmen Square/Las Vegas], greater than normal earthquakes/volcanoes [Pompeii], the Fall of national governments [Russia 1917, China 1949, South Vietnam 1975], could be nuclear [Hiroshima, Chernobyl]. You get the picture. Maybe nothing at all.

    Would one or more of these events Crash our Stock Market? The events of September 11, 2001 were the only one which actually did strongly affect our stocks. Other markets fell only where they were strongly influenced. We assume if Pompeii had a market, it must have been throughly singed.

    I think Arch is looking for something more devastating than the Russia realignment. Something sudden which would have a major page one news impact, maybe even topple the markets.. Today is the 16th.

  5. scary stuff .. arch is an old patriot boy from way back .. um sex him .. putin good bloke . does what he likes no problems .. yeah markets go up forever .. close shorts go long I tell yah .. don’t wanna miss out

  6. George

    “We keep asking “What’s Boeing’s plan, here?” ”

    Apparently they don’t have a plan!

    “Boeing Loses Jet Delivery Crown To Airbus”

    What Boeing did is like taking a Mini Cooper and stuff a big block V8 engine into it. Then hope like hell some software can smooth over the handling problems. I grieve for the engineers who got stuck with that bag of cat poo!!

    Will Boeing survive is the big question?

    • Not sure a big block will fit in a MC; they’re about the same size when you add all the pipes, hoses, and other hanging stuff. I always dreamed of putting a blown V8 into a Ford Pinto and discovered somebody in Ohio did it. My first taste of envy…

  7. George,
    I noticed one thing missing from Rand Paul’s 2019 Festivus report:
    Stock buybacks paid for by the US national debt.
    Gee, I wonder how he voted on that one.
    How many used scoreboards can we buy for $2 trillion?
    Bunch of hypocrites.
    Best, Mike.

  8. Always going to be an enemy somewhere — traditional posturing against China, asymmetrical posturing against the South American cartels and ME fundamentalists, and the new boogie man? Don’t forget we’re standing up Space Force which I’m sure will be (or is) looking both up and down.

    As for strongmen, ying yang bubba. There will always be a Caesar wanna be somewhere; squeeze the putty power ball bubble on one side and out pops another one on the other side. The Prez is holding back because he doesn’t know what he can get away with. If he gets reelected, pack your bags and head for one of those countries where you can live on $2,000 a month… Your sanity will thank you.

  9. It’s not just the 737 MAX that is a problem for Boeing. Here a 30-year quality manager for Boeing says the 787 ‘Dreamliner’ is not safe to fly either! Seems over 800 were delivered with quality problems like metal shavings in the wiring harnesses… waiting to fail… and other problems. Seems the rush to deliver output was more important than safety in construction.

    • Deployed to Bosnia with the Army; we took our fancy HMMWV’s, Bradley’s, and Abrams firebreathers. Then the Russians showed up with their BMR’s. Swear they only cost about $100 to build they were so simple. Remember those cheap cars they made in Eastern Europe and tried to market in the U.S.? After all the bragging and souvenir swapping, we asked why their vehicles were so simple. The answer was pretty sobering — the Russian gear was designed to be troubleshooted and fixed by anyone. Can’t say that about our gear.

      Planes, trains, and automobiles. The problems are not limited to batteries. Sometimes ignorance is bliss.

    • Geewiz I accidently hit the backspace…

      Re: total inability to support usual performance

      There are conceivably some disturbing coinkydoinks going on vis-a-vis Boeing’s harsh treatment. Could this major exporter and critical US military supplier be in the midst of a remote control flight plan destined for points south of the Rio Grande, hello nafta nothing to declare, courtesy of a little inadvertant help from Latin America’s richest man hailing from sunny Lebanon?

      This Zerohedge consolidator Boeing Carolina factory story looks like it began around 4/20 last year on NYT and CNN. It smoked up again around the first week of November on the BBC and other UK media around when the European Commission was putting their Boeing-Embraer merger decision on the backburner.

      Here’s a few coinkydoinks to throw in the pot. Following the 2009 financial crisis, the LatAm billionaire along with family member family trust holdings became the largest single minority shareholder of the NYT controlling 4 board seats. The American majority family controlled the remaining 9 seats one of which was occupied by a former head of the BBC. The American family scion scribe apparently got his journalism chops in the Carolinas. The merger that has seen CNN repositioned under the ATT umbrella was guided by a protege from the Carolinas of the LatAm billionaire.

      Ultra-Orthodox Adam Smith Luddites aren’t going to like it, but this is no time for the flock to line up expecting a short back-and-sides shearing when the knives are out in the slaughterhouse. Kids, it may get your goat, but a wise sheepdog might advise Farmer Donald to nationalize Boeing before it’s too late. Dr. Lecter is in the pasture?

      We now return you to the conclusion of “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”….

  10. Get ’em, Rand Paul…!

    That’s awesome! I wonder if it’s an Ohio River Valley thing…?

    There was an Indiana Congressman some years back (Lee Hamilton, maybe?) whose District was in Southern Indiana, who published a government overspending, waste, boondoggle, pork, etc. report periodically. I don’t remember,much about his time in office, except his politics were hard-left, but I overlooked that because his reports p!ssed off and embarrassed Congress every time he released one — didn’t shame them into changing their ways, or shame their constituents into making better choices, though…

      • Nope. William Proxmire published the best-known periodic wasteful spending list, which was more prominent nationwide (and should’ve been even more-embarrassing, except congresscritters have no conscience) than the Hoosier guy’s list. I remember the Indiana guy though because he was popular enough to be a “Congressman for life,” but chose to retire. That, being an oddity in itself, was what actually made me take notice of him. I don’t know if I ever even passed through his district while he was in D.C. — ‘Just can’t remember his name…

  11. ask arch the self proclaimed guardian of wall street since mark haines untimely um sudden departure in 08/09.. why do 40 % of American companies not make money ? and ask how did tesla double to market cap 92.5 billion on what? repo dough or musk rat dancing around like fool ? happy days !!!!

  12. tell the dump to ring north Korean or Iranian(in bed with elite yanks,goes back to the shah) friends and let go some skyrockets !! then pump gold and keep the salami sausage factory going

  13. sometimes you gotta wonder what brainwashed people so good about gold , interest rates , markets , treasuries , housing .. its pretty lonely life being a bear.. you got no friends no where.. and everybody spews out the same garbage on inflation, rates , gold , housing and markets .. ah well everybody gunna be happy forever or

  14. “the State Department is using your taxes to pay the tuition of international students enrolled in American community colleges.”

    I’ve known several that have gotten a free education. Guaranteed employment, free rent, healthcare, utilities,transportation,and in the end didnt have to pay any taxes.

    Seriously what’s wrong with that picture.
    American children have to scrimp and save or take out expensive loans..

    I am not against someone getting an education getting a job etc. But come here legally. Pay for your education the same way everyone else pays or give everyone an education that wants one. Pay taxes etc. Pay a non resident tax and not have access to govt programs that were set in place to give citizens a hand up.

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