Christmas Ramble with a Side of Woo

Sleigh bells?  Chestnuts?  Open fires?  Not around here – not this year.

Mostly sunny and 77 today.  Boxing Day will hit 81. To be sure, the East Texas outback is a different part of the country. Down here in “We say grace, we say mam, if you aint into that we don’t give a damn” country.  Where Hank Junior is a better source of Truth than any politician, yet to hold office.

Still, it’s the system we have, there’s none better, and occasionally things go right.

Here’s a Gift

Don’t know if you caught this the other day, but a Federal judge rules against U.S. Chamber of Commerce trying to stop $100,000 H-1B visa fee.  Frankly, the judge – an Obama appointee – surprised us a bit.  A solid win for (dare we say?) Americans.

I considered blocking some time to work out the possible back room machinations. But there’s a turkey to cook and “sometimes, you just take the win.”

Uncertainty Rules Finance

This is the part where I wheel out the whiteboard, huff a bit of the erasable market fumes and regret being 10-classes shy of my doctorate in business.

Another huff (ahh…) and I’ll hold forth:

See, now through year-end, tax-loss selling acts like a low-grade gravity well across all asset classes, not just equities.  If you don’t know what a gravity well is?  Drop by one of my physics discourses.  (Bring a marker, too…)

Investors harvest losses to offset gains, which means anything down on the year—small caps, speculative tech, thinly traded ETFs, crypto proxies, junior miners, and even some bond funds—can see extra, non-fundamental selling pressure.  During regular times that’s the stuff making up the “noise floor” in trading.

In thin holiday markets, how-such-ever, that pressure is amplified: fewer buyers, wider spreads, and more algorithmic dominance mean prices can gap lower on very little volume. This is why late-December price action often looks “irrational” or disconnected from news—because it isn’t about valuation, it’s about tax positioning and balance-sheet cleanup.

Settlement dates still matter, but less than they used to—and mostly at the margin. I’m old enough to have played this game (oh, so very long ago….) but Life has been simplified.

In the U.S., T+1 settlement means trades executed by the last business day of the year will settle in time for tax purposes, so the urgency is compressed but not eliminated. New Years is still a new tax year.

What matters more now is liquidity, not settlement mechanics. With desks lightly staffed and risk budgets tightened, even modest sell programs can move prices across stocks, bonds, commodities, and crypto.

The flip side is important: once the calendar flips, that artificial selling pressure disappears, often leading to sharp January reversals in the very assets that were punished most in late December.

In short, says Mr. Huffer, year-end markets are less about truth and more about timing—and thin markets make the distortions louder. Mam.

Land Mines of Money

Closer-in, tomorrow is a “normal” trading day, hours-wise.

Monday, though?  Bring your own robot to sniff out the Improvised Economic Devices (IEDs).  Monday begins with Trade figures.  We should be recovered enough from carb overdosing to report on it.

Tuesday the Case-Shiller/S&P/CoreLogic (and whoever else was around) post the Housing Prices.  With rates remaining high, our “power concepts” of money come into play.

Hand me that marker, would you?  (Ahh…)  The way this works is simple.  “Money Power” is the Product of Prices TIMES Volume.

This notion was at the base of Joe Granville’s brilliant On-Balance-Volume calculation which you can read about over here.  Essentially, one share of stock doubling is different than 10-million shares each going down two-bits.

Wednesday next is a Bank Settlement Day.  Which matters because “hot money” matters.  Even now, so does the Japanese Yen carry-trade.

Speaking of which, what country’s Nikkei 225 was up 63 points overnight?

The Nikkei was up about 63 points overnight to (marker, please) roughly 50,400, which sounds impressive until you widen the lens. Zooming out is easier with marker fumes, right?

What most people forget is that back on December 29, 1989, at the peak of Japan’s asset bubble, the Nikkei closed around 38,916. It then spent more than three decades below that level. In real terms, after inflation and opportunity cost, that was a generation of capital going essentially nowhere.

That long arc is what an aging population, weak domestic demand, and the gradual erosion of manufacturing supremacy look like at scale. Japan didn’t collapse; it stagnated.  Now, very, very carefully lift your eyes and look around you….

Asset prices eventually recovered nominally, but only after years of financial repression, currency depreciation, and policy distortion. If you’re trying to figure out what comes next elsewhere, like, oh, um…..Japan isn’t a warning about crashes — it’s a warning about long, grinding plateaus where time, not panic, does the damage.

That Brings us to Thursday Next

Which we all know as “Global Hangover Day.”

(Don’t forget to ‘drop your balls’ Wednesday night.)

If you’ve gotten this far – and were feeling relief that I haven’t bashed the “made up money” crowd, let me put you at ease.  Bitcoin went from a high over $90K Monday to around $87.5K today.

That’s not a behavior of “money.”  That’s a Yo-Yo.

In the Shorts

(Speaking of dropping balls, and such…)

Does he not understand the term “down time?”  Trump tells children he won’t let ‘a bad Santa’ infiltrate US – and discusses ‘beautiful’ coal.  And as the maraschino? Trump calls Democrats ‘radical left scum’ in Christmas Eve message.

Territory is what wars are all about.  So read skeptically Zelensky reveals US-Ukraine plan to end Russian war, key questions remain.

And Europe’s drift into insanity speeds up as EU warns of possible action after the U.S. bars 5 Europeans accused of censorship.  AYFKM? We seem to remember Europe would have lost not one, but two World Wars without American bailouts and now they’re off BSing on how to run the digital world which they were only peripherally involved in building out.  Are they effing kidding us?

ATR:  Drop-In Woo Woo Dreams

In my (long ago) novel DreamOver, I wrote about a naval spook who would wake up in other people’s lives in his dreams.

I get those kind of dreams now and then – so it wasn’t a matter of actively coming up with such a clever “plot device” – it was generalizing what happens in some of my personal lucid dream states.

I thought this one was interesting (and maybe worth telling) because it was holiday themed.

I was on a jetliner coming out of the central US and headed for either Seattle or Vancouver.  But, the plane ran into a problem, so the pilot made a “precautionary landing somewhere in the Midwest.

The plane had been on the ground an hour, or so – and I noted the time in the terminal – it was about 10:50 AM.  Not wanting to be stuck in this (God-forsaken) Midwest town, I demanded a flight back to the region thinking I could drive home.

The desk attendant got me a ticket but oddly the city was “Warrenton” Oregon. Which in the waking state now, must have meant flying to Oregon – PDX. Where I could arrive at 6 PM.

No sooner had the ticketing mess been resolved than the delayed plane was declared safe to fly and people were allowed to reboard but they had to have the right ticket.

I – being clever – or, so I thought, was told “Oh, no…you won’t get in to the destination in the early afternoon because we have already re-ticketed you to arrive in Warrenton tonight…

I tried to get back on and in the process conferred with a fellow named (something like) Preston Hawthorne – who was traveling with a group of about five or six others headed to my original destination…

It was one of those Kafkaesque dreams.  But, on waking, I did the expected scan and found that there was a lot of precautionary landing vibe visiting waking state, too.  In fact, Rescue crews line Shannon Airport runway as 3 Christmas flights make emergency landings – Irish Mirror.

No mention of Warrenton, presently though.  But, it’s not 10:50 AM here in the central U.S. yet, either.

And you thought your dreams were odd, huh?

Cognitive Songinance

A timely “er…what…mate?” for our erstwhile Sailor Stiks who is scouting the Outback for us and issuing reports.  Here.  Where he wrote “A day ahead down under, where women glow and men thunder. ”

And therein lies my excuse for not getting more work done around the ranch Wednesday.  You see, “men thunder” stuck in my ear.  From a life in broadcasting, something was rattling around “He’s just plain wrong on that…”

Well, off to the dust-gathering studio here.  Where  -umpteen Windows 10 updates later – I was able to crank the audio chain to a respectable +107.3 dB peak (and distortion-free) which is close enough to the sound level of a jet APU walking under it on the tarmac as to be indistinguishable volume-wise.

(If you have your speakers cranked, click here for the “Land Down Under” by Men at Work.”

Which Stiks is correct about “thunder” after all it was mentioned (9-times). BUT (and this is 2-hours of updating the music server later) it wasn’t the men who were thundering.  Because the men were plundering.

Cognitive Songinance is a very real post-broadcasting disease…well, sort of.

And on this note, off to the kitchen where a turkey will be my next KitchenAid.

This is what happens when there’s an eggnog shortage in East Texas.  Teach your children well.

Write when I’m full of it,

George@Ure.net

(Need something more to read?  How about Refining the AI–Human SFE Model (and Why It Matters) – Hidden Guild)

22 thoughts on “Christmas Ramble with a Side of Woo”

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  1. I’m Baaaaaaaaach..

    “That’s not a behavior of “money.” ”

    Ohh come on Lamstream – you can do better than that..or do I need to show you a current CHART of the USD trade history/histogram. The US dollar trades daily on FOREX exchanges around globe. Tis actually a basket of Currencies trading under USD symbol, but I digress.

    BTC is not Ma, and You dont even know how to play a Cello..duh-ooh!

    Johann Sebastian Bachs’ Cello suite #1 -https://youtu.be/Rx_IibJH4rA?

    If you arent holding a TLT short/put position currently..you could be wrong, I mean how easy is this ?

    ** Wanna see what was blacked out redacted ? act quickly search the files with Space at end of tRUMPS name inside ( ). Error will prolly be debugged soonly – nasty stuff regards current Pols/bus Leaders..nasty.

  2. re: “Yes, Virginia, There is a Santa Claus”, 1991
    feat: Warrenton’s Norman Fauquier

    As chance would have it, the Santa Claus movie’s “Wikipedia” reference field was edited yesterday. The 1991 film director also directed “Mary Queen of Scots” in 1971. She, MR, along with Elizabeth I, ER, are both buried at the Marian-inspired Henry VII Lady Chapel annex of Westminster Abbey. King Charles III recorded his 2025 Christmas message there on December 11th which was publicly released on Tuesday. Usually the Christmas message is delivered at a royal residence.

    Merry Christmas to All and Happy Eggnogging!

  3. “… Write when I’m full of it, George@Ure.net …”

    Well, there’s an open door if ever. Nope, spit the bit, won’t take the bait.

    We are doing nothing (much). I will click off a few things? Or not.

    Before sunrise Mrs. E spotted a raptor 60′ away from the FR glass.
    Used the overhanging sycamore to launch, return, try again.
    Hunting. Hungry. Nature is relentless, determined.

    Be thankful. I am.
    Always, E

    ps – less than 12 hours until the 80th Rolex Sydney Hobart rumbles through the heads

    Tomorrow will hardly be just a normal Friday.

  4. Record heat predicted for today. The atmospheric rubber band snaps back with a hard freeze predicted for Tuesday night. Should be pleasant on New Years.

    Priority Mail Christmas cookies were held up 12 days going from a local post office to an Origin Facility. Maybe they will arrive by New Years. New Years cookies and black-eyed peas may be on the menu.

    The record held by the UPS Holiday cookie-nappers may still stand. That year my Christmas cookies circled the continental US for around 30 days. By the time they made it to my gate, they were reduced to thumb-size pieces, by a month of bouncing in the back of trucks.

    This year, the cookies were supposedly sitting in a Postal Service shipping container waiting to be processed, so I have hopes of intact yummies. They are still sitting at the distribution center, apparently, but they may have been unloaded. Don’t know if local growers making last minute Christmas shipments played into the issue in any way. I don’t think the USPS has enough stones to press a false narrative against my retired, disabled school-teacher sibling. She remembers what monsters they and their bosses were in elementary.

    Merry Christmas to all.

    • Cookies are on the move, but headed in the wrong direction. Maybe they’ll hop a jet aeroplane, not a slow boat to nowhere.

  5. I bought a glass animal figurine about a foot tall about 18 months ago for my granddaughter. The store wrapped it in bubble wrap and placed it in a bag. I thought she was too young for it last Christmas but gave it to her this year. To my suprise, the cat I remembered buying turned out to be a rabbit.

  7. My dear family and friends,

    As Christmas comes around again, I find myself thinking less about the gifts under the tree and more about the gifts we give each other every day — the ones that don’t come wrapped, but are felt in the heart.

    I want to share a few things with you, not as lessons, but as pieces of the life I’ve lived and the love I’ve known.

    I grew up watching two people — your great?grandparents — who never raised their voices at each other. They didn’t argue; they discussed. They saved the hard conversations for their evening walk, hand in hand, where the world was quiet and they could face life together. That simple routine taught me more about love than any book ever could.

    They never used intimacy as a weapon or a bargaining chip. It was a gift of self, freely given, never withheld. Their home was built on respect, shared purpose, and the belief that love is something you do, not something you say.

    Some of my most precious memories are of them sitting on the couch together, or gathered around the kitchen table talking about the day. Nothing fancy — just the warmth of people who cared for each other deeply.

    As you walk your own paths, I hope you carry a few things with you:

    Lead with compassion. You never know the weight someone else is carrying.

    Talk to each other. Keep your communication open, honest, and kind.

    Walk the same direction. A relationship is a partnership — two people choosing the same path.

    Laugh often. Laughter is glue. It holds families together.

    Give hugs freely. A hug says, “You matter to me.” Never let the people you love wonder how you feel.

    Be the blind man. Don’t judge anyone by their clothes, their skin, their size, or their mistakes. Look at their heart.

    Treasure the simple things. Faith, family, friends — these are the real riches of life.

    If there’s one thing I want each of you to know, it’s this: You are important to me. Every single one of you.

    I give hugs because I want you to feel that truth, not just hear it. I never want any of you to say, “I wish I had one more moment.” I want you to know — right now — that you are loved, valued, and carried in my heart every day.

    This Christmas, remember that the greatest gifts we give each other are compassion, patience, laughter, and time. These are the things that build a family, and these are the things that truly have meaning

    My gifts are meager in form but full in meaning. They carry the mission of Jesus Christ and the memory of the original Mormons who struggled across the country, depending on each other when numbers and ledgers could not sustain them. At Christmas, I give a simple kitchen utensil, placed where the family gathers around the table. It is not decoration but a reminder that love shines brightest in the everyday places where we share meals, laughter, and stories. I also give the gift of a light, to symbolize the call to be a light unto others. And I honor the dandelion — a plant often dismissed as a weed, yet one of the noblest, offering humanity a thousand gifts from its roots to its bright yellow flowers. In a season filled with glitter and gifts, these small touches remind me that true celebration is found in family love and in carrying Christ’s light into the lives of those around us.

    With all my love,
    Looking out of the box

    now the Christmas recipes..

    milk chocolate..

    ½ cup unsweetened cocoa powder

    1 cup powdered milk

    1 cup powdered sugar (adjust for sweetness)

    ½ cup butter or coconut oil (for smooth texture and meltability)

    1 tsp vanilla extract (optional, for flavor)

    Pinch of salt (balances sweetness)

    Instructions:

    Prepare a double boiler: Place a heatproof bowl over a pot of simmering water.

    Melt the fat: Add butter or coconut oil to the bowl and let it melt gently.

    Mix dry ingredients: In a separate bowl, sift together cocoa powder, powdered milk, powdered sugar, and salt to remove lumps.

    Combine: Slowly whisk the dry mix into the melted fat until smooth.

    Flavor: Stir in vanilla extract if desired.

    Cool & set: Pour into molds or a parchment?lined pan. Let it set at room temperature or refrigerate until firm.

    Use: Once hardened, break into pieces. It will melt again easily for dipping fruit, coating pretzels, or stirring into hot milk.

    ? Dove?Style Homemade Ice Cream with Stabilizers
    Ingredients (makes ~1 quart):

    2 cups heavy cream

    1 cup whole milk

    ¾ cup sugar (or powdered sugar for smoother texture)

    3 tbsp cocoa powder (for chocolate flavor)

    2 oz melted chocolate (optional, for richness)

    1 tsp vanilla extract

    Pinch of salt

    Stabilizers (choose one or a blend):

    ¼ tsp guar gum (common, natural thickener)

    ? tsp carrageenan (helps prevent separation)

    ½ tsp locust bean gum (adds creaminess)

    Instructions:

    Mix base: In a saucepan, whisk together milk, cream, sugar, cocoa, and salt. Heat gently until sugar dissolves.

    Add stabilizers: Sprinkle gums in slowly while whisking to avoid clumping. Heat to about 170°F (just below simmer) to activate them.

    Cool: Remove from heat, stir in vanilla and melted chocolate. Chill mixture thoroughly (at least 4 hours or overnight).

    Churn: Pour into an ice cream maker and churn until thick and creamy.

    Freeze: Transfer to a container and freeze 4–6 hours. The stabilizers will keep the texture smooth and reduce ice crystal growth.

    Homemade Marshmallows Recipe
    Ingredients (makes about 40 marshmallows):

    3 envelopes unflavored gelatin (about 7 tsp)

    1 cup cold water, divided

    2 cups granulated sugar

    ¾ cup light corn syrup

    ¼ tsp salt

    1 tsp vanilla extract (or peppermint for holiday flair)

    Powdered sugar (for dusting)

    Instructions:

    Bloom gelatin: In the bowl of a stand mixer, sprinkle gelatin over ½ cup cold water. Let sit while you prepare the syrup.

    Cook syrup: In a saucepan, combine sugar, corn syrup, salt, and the remaining ½ cup water. Heat over medium, stirring until sugar dissolves. Raise heat and cook until the mixture reaches 240°F (soft-ball stage) on a candy thermometer.

    Whip: With mixer on low, carefully pour hot syrup into gelatin. Increase speed to high and whip until thick, glossy, and tripled in volume (about 10 minutes).

    Flavor: Add vanilla (or peppermint) and whip briefly to combine.

    Set: Pour mixture into a greased 9×13 pan dusted with powdered sugar. Smooth top with a spatula. Let sit uncovered at room temperature for at least 4 hours (overnight is best).

    Cut & coat: Dust a cutting board with powdered sugar. Turn marshmallows out, cut into squares, and toss in powdered sugar to prevent sticking.

    Homemade Graham Crackers
    Ingredients (makes ~24 crackers):

    1 ½ cups whole wheat flour (graham flour if available)

    ½ cup all?purpose flour

    ½ cup brown sugar, packed

    ½ tsp baking soda

    ½ tsp salt

    1 tsp cinnamon (optional, for warmth)

    ? cup honey or molasses (for that signature flavor)

    ? cup butter, softened (or coconut oil for variation)

    3–4 tbsp milk (adjust for dough consistency)

    1 tsp vanilla extract

    Instructions:

    Mix dry ingredients: In a bowl, whisk together whole wheat flour, all?purpose flour, brown sugar, baking soda, salt, and cinnamon.

    Add wet ingredients: Stir in butter, honey, milk, and vanilla until a dough forms.

    Chill: Wrap dough and refrigerate for 30 minutes to firm up.

    Roll & cut: Roll dough to about ? inch thick. Cut into rectangles (traditional graham cracker shape) and prick with a fork for texture.

    Bake: Place on parchment?lined baking sheet. Bake at 350°F for 12–15 minutes, until golden and crisp.

    Cool: Let cool completely before storing in an airtight container.

    ? Holiday Twist
    Spiced grahams: Add nutmeg or ginger for a festive flavor.

    Chocolate grahams: Mix 2 tbsp cocoa powder into the dry ingredients.

  8. Thunder… plunder…chunder (yucky!) all have a way of weaving together into thought patterns. At our local luncheon yesterday we were out on the porch when there was plenty of that huge lightning thingy that causes that thunder, then came the wind and rain and the party was over because we wanted to get back and down the dock without getting too soaked.
    The thunder part is real. The rest… haven’t seen much of that.
    We learned to play the song on the way and recorded a session in the cockpit. Men and women at work while on the sea.
    Be well. Be merry. Be blessed with love.
    Stiks

  9. Someone was playing with google search analytics and happened to see a spike in searches for Carrington event at 4:24 am yesterday. The area with the most searches was Colorado where a lot of US space force bases are located.

  11. Anyone else finding coin and pawn are willing to sell their silver but not buy it. The buy price is listed as call and when you call they decline interest in purchasing.

      • well,,, since little c is such a sweettart,, let us GROK it,,,
        GROK Quote
        “””was there a false info put out claiming the low price

        Searching the web

        37 results

        Searching on X

        19 results

        Yes, there was misleading information circulating that suggested Bitcoin had crashed to around $24,111 on Christmas Eve (December 24, 2025).What actually happened: Bitcoin briefly printed $24,111 on Binance’s BTC/USD1 trading pair—a low-liquidity pair involving USD1 (a stablecoin from Trump family-backed World Liberty Financial). This was a flash wick lasting seconds, caused by thin holiday order books and likely a large sell order overwhelming limited bids. The price snapped back to ~$87,000–$88,000 almost immediately.This did not occur on major pairs like BTC/USDT or BTC/USDC, where 99% of volume trades.
        The broader Bitcoin market price remained stable around $87,000–$88,000 on Christmas Eve 2025 (down from ~$98,000–$99,000 in 2024).

        The confusion arose because:Screenshots of the wick spread rapidly on X (formerly Twitter) and crypto forums.
        Some posts and headlines sensationalized it as a “crash to $24k” or “manipulation,” without clarifying it was isolated to one illiquid pair.
        Accusations of “coordinated manipulation” or “billion-dollar dump” went viral, but experts attributed it to low holiday liquidity and a promotional yield campaign on USD1 that drained sell-side depth.

        Reliable sources (CoinDesk, CCN, Binance data) confirm it was a microstructure event, not a real market-wide drop. Bitcoin’s actual Christmas Eve 2025 range was ~$86,400–$88,000, with no fundamental change.In short, the “$24,111 low price” was technically printed on one obscure chart—but claiming Bitcoin itself “hit” that level was inaccurate and misleading.

        19 posts

        37 web pages

        Explain flash wicks in crypto

        USD1 stablecoin details

        Think Harder”,,, end of GROK Quote

        are u, little c,, still on SSRI Drugs ? lets grok it,,

        “However, related research provides some context:Rates of depressive symptoms are similar across party lines. A 2024 study (published in the Journal of Public Health Management and Practice) found no statistically significant difference: about 25% of Democrats, 23% of Independents, and 20.5% of Republicans screened positive for depression. ,,,”
        “,,,This suggests that, if anything, Democrats may be more likely to be prescribed and use SSRIs or other antidepressants, due to greater willingness to seek treatment—despite similar underlying depression rates.”

    • re: Genesis Block

      Ray,

      Ummm, so was Goldman Sachs short? It’s kind of interesting that the “Wikipedia” entry for Bitgo mentions two co-founders, but not an actual alleged third one in the person of Seattle native Will O’Brien.

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