CFNAI, Jobless, and After-Election Plans

In keeping with our focus on Long Wave Economics – that, along with prepping for anything goes being the cornerstones of this site – let’s begin with a Big Long Term view because it is very important.

As explained in our Peoplenomics.com ChartPack Wednesday, its hard to deny that we’re in a financial bubble the likes of which the world seldom sees.

“With the odds of war – or something like it – climbing for this weekend, I wanted to start the charts today with a Reality Check about inflation.

While it is easy to imagine – that with a Dow in the 43,000 range that the increase in American financial horsepower since the Great Depression, might be calculated by simply dividing the 381 Dow high of Sept. 3, 1929 into the Tuesday close  – 42,925 call it – and conclude that things have “grown” by 112.66 times.  Thus, the “popular delusion” to borrow from Mackay would be that we are hard working, successful geniuses.

And then I further explained:

“Now we can make a few more simple calculations to double-check to see if “genius” claims are warranted.

So first, we divide the (inflation-adjusted) market prices (basis 1933) and look how smart we are by yesterday’s Dow close.  42,925 divided by 9,267.65 (1933 inflation adjusted) means the “real gains” over 1933 are a mere 4.63 times.

But then it gets worse.

You see, the US population has changed. 1933 125.580 million people.  Today, population has grown to 331.41 million.  In other words, population is up 2.63 times.

What this means?  Well, in simplistic terms we have overshot the 1929 market bubble by a factor of about 2 on an inflation-adjusted basis.

It’s nothing to be proud of though. Because in the process of “getting here” we sold off much of our self-sufficiency, created a system of corrupt government featuring excessive (and arguably un-constitutional regulation) and collapse is speeding up with the efforts of the local Socialists, who were going strong in the previous Depression as well.

This is what people have a hard time remembering.  We ARE in a financial bubble.  The U.S. has already sold-itself into indentures to Globalism because all China/Asia has to do is throttle-back exports – even a bit – and we’ll be collapsing as fast as WTC-7 with no honest explanations (again).

Run the numbers yourself and stack them up:  Monetary inflation from 1933 market lows to 2024 Bubble highs. Add in the value-added of 17-times more people working today.

We love the idea of popular government – with a smorgasbord of high-minded and worthy goals for the country. But none of that is on the ballot.  We’d love something other than a political prosecutor and a skirt-chaser to choose from, as well. But, again, not on the ballot.

And we would like someone who will stand tall for strictly Constitutional government along with American Excellence and Independence from the globalist hive-mind world order.  Not seeing much of that, either.

Half of America is likely to be incredibly disappointed in just two week’s time.  When that happens, it might shake the foundations of “orderly markets” and it may cause governments to light up war expansions (and false flag operations?) to distract pissed-off Americans from the spoils served as viable candidates.

As usual, we got there first.  We’re in pre-disappointment mode already. And if the market sees half it’s price shed before the Inauguration, remember not to be too surprised.  And try to avoid partisans who will be selling the same stuff we saw in the late 1920’s: workout radicalism versus populism with the forges of war working overtime in the back rooms.

We aren’t the only ones looking at cycles of boom and bust: Doug Casey on Rising Prices and Falling Values—Inflation and Social Decay – The Burning Platform is of a similar tone.

Second Point?

The forges are still fired up. U.S., NATO confirm deployment of North Korean troops to Russia. Up to 12,000 NorKs may go.

Looks like overt support of the Constitution is about to be criminalized: $1M voter sweepstakes may violate federal law, US Justice Department warns Elon Musk

Labor Unrest continues (and don’t forget the Longshore strike is still game-on for January): No end for Boeing labor strike as workers reject latest contract proposal

And our long-standing prediction that the government (US) may eventually have to stomp out domestic use of cryptocurrencies because they can be used for avoiding criminal sanctions looms. Apparently, we’re not the only ones to see the obvious now that BRICS Crypto News: Russia’s Bold Proposal to Use Bitcoin Against Western Sanctions. As Pappy always held, government hates competition.  Once BTC steps out of line, then care to wager on what could logically follow?  Branding crypto as anti-American is one alternative future to consider.

Econ Notes: CFNAI, U.I. Filings

We don’t expect either of these reports will derail a strong technical bounce at the open today, but we are open to the idea that others will join us in pre- election disappointment with a disputed outcome being likely.

CFNAI (Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator) first:

“The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to –0.16 in September from –0.21 in August. Thirty-eight of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in September, while 47 made negative contributions. Thirty-nine indicators improved from August to September, while 43 indicators deteriorated and three were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 14 made negative contributions.”

• Production-related indicators contributed –0.21 to the CFNAI in September, down from +0.04 in August.
• The sales, orders, and inventories category’s contribution to the CFNAI was –0.03 in September, unchanged from August.
• Employment-related indicators contributed –0.03 to the CFNAI in September, down from a neutral value in August.
• The personal consumption and housing category’s contribution to the CFNAI was –0.01 in September, up from –0.03 in August.”

For some (odd, linguistic) reason the Chicago Fed is all over “negative contributions” which – conceptually gives me a headache. To simple minded me, a “contribution” adds to something as those things called “losses” take away.  Anyone who says otherwise (or obfuscates) is not to be trusted.  (Eyes toward Lighthead country…)

Unemployment Data?

We look for more reliable numbers in, oh, two weeks when the partisan fevers break.

News, Simmering on Low Boil

Pacific Weather matters in here. First with a Saturday through Tuesday break in the weather in Taiwan (Windy: Xinyi, Taipei weather forecast) and that would have to be mighty tempting for China to move on Taiwan.  Off to the north of there Tropical Storm Trami wreaks havoc in the Philippines, at least 26 dead. But, Taiwan catches a weather break (for now).

Especially because this weekend is widely expected to see an Israeli attack on Iran. Israel on verge of attacking Iran despite US pressure to de-escalate: Media reports.  But there is a wild card as in our little circle of observers, fears of a nuclear “decapitation strike” on Iran are being fed by stories like Israel issues chilling warning, Russia says won’t abandon Iran.If the M.E. gets too wrapped around the axle, that weather window in Taiwan may come into play.  And oh, do we have any aircraft carriers in supporting positions yet? No?

All that would remain, then, would be China warning Japan not to allow the U.S. to launch in support of Taiwan from Japanese soil (including Okinawa). We’d love to be a mouse in the corner listening as China, Japan hold high-level consultations on maritime affairs-Xinhua.

A little alum, saltpeter, and twine. Well-soaked and thoroughly dried. A time fuse could be lit this weekend. (Which could also have knock-on effects on the “election” in 10-days.

Uselessivity Dept.

Equality comes to Gun Ownership? Gun Ownership by Gender in 2024: Closing the Gender Gap.

File under “late to the Party” here: Tulsi Gabbard is making it official She’s an R now.

Are bank failures about to rise? This Bank Failed Last Friday and No One Told You About It!

And the US might become a producer of lithium down the road a ways: Massive Lithium Deposits Found in Southwestern Arkansas. And yes, that formation – called the Smackover Formation – actually runs under our little trailer out here in the Outback…

At the Ranch: Hydroponic Expansion

We don’t really use our recording studio as much as we had planned to (when younger).  Now, though, we have set up a “hydroponic gardening workstation” in the room in addition to the music gear.

As of tomorrow, I will have all 96 plant sites planted, but in good-old “If some is good, then more must be better” fashion, I’m about to roll into a further expansion.

It got to be too late to put in the big deep water culture pails this year – though the high water mark there is owned by reader D’Lynn who did a dandy bucket-rail system. Too cold to run that over the winter, looked like.

On the other hand, a couple of 108 plant sites (single layer) lash-ups might work in the lean-to grow room. Diesel heater prices have remained low and I like to put in a new diesel unit every year (or so) just on the theory of safety and having spare parts around.  Heat and light shouldn’t be an issue.

The problem for hydroponic newbies is what to buy. Ultimately, it’s coming down (as always?) to an economic calculation. Currently, looking on Amazon, there are 18 pod Mufga units (we have four of these) and they go for $44 a pop, which means $2.44 per plant site.  That’s a lot more than you need to spend, but they do come ready to roll including grow media, baskets, plant food and plastic covers which keep water use low during the early part of your grow.

I looked at the pricing issues earlier this year (February) and picked up a 108 plant site, three layer system, that will get assembled in coming weeks for the lean-to room. (ShopTalk issue ahead) They’re still going for $124 and come with sponges, and a basic pump.  And this pencils out to about $1.15 per plant site. Less than half the container type costs.

Buying note: Get the white “food grade plastic” kind of larger setups.

Of course, our hydroponics are really aimed at leafy greens: We like fresh spinach (we can eat half a cutting from one side of the 18 site Mufga’s in a single meal.  With four cuttings to a plant that’s about 30-meals of fresh greens before clean out and replant.  The others are used for dirt bed starting of larger things like cabbage and the bok choi.

Cleaning only takes a few minutes – 15 to ready two of the 18 pod units for another run.  Not a big investment of time. (And no weeding!)

Still, should be interesting to get the bigger growing space online this fall. Because then we get closer to having year-round fresh cut salads. No vitamin losses due to storage and travel times.

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net