Let’s begin with a Holiday Driving story.
Our consigliere is coming to visit from the nearly Northeast. And he’s driving. All was going well until he got inside Indiana on I-70. There, the cops had a high-speed chase going involving a fellow in a Dodge Charger. Ended in the predictable crash.
Somewhere north of 120 MPH he fleeing driver lost control. Which resulted in an hour-plus stoppage of both lanes of I-70 westbound. In fact, when we talked earlier, traffic was backed up more than 10-miles (and thus into Ohio). A couple of truckers allowed as how they were going to take naps. And trust the sound of 200 cars honking would wake them up.
As a result of the two-hour delay, the arrival time here from this Cannonball Run out-take won’t be until 10 PM tonight.
Still, beats flying because while quicker, by the time you get a rental car (and drive down from Dallas), there’s nothing like having your own wheels when traveling. Something about independence of movement (as long as the grid’s up, and you can get gas, right?) is hard to put a price on.
Besides, in the middle of the country, a snooze in parking lot traffic isn’t a bad thing. Not nearly as stressful as running late to an airport, coming upon such a road closure while trying to get a car back to the airport before penalties kick in on top of the risk of missing a flight.
This is Tuesday – we aren’t even to the high point of T-Day adventuring yet. Should be all kinds of records over the long weekend.
Thanksgiving storm threatens holiday travelers across Northeast means it’s a good time to visit Texas. Where our Thursday weather (partly sunny, 60F, and nearly calm winds) will make for ideal ham radio antenna launch over trees with our drones…
(Second childhood when you hit 70 is a real thing, you know.)
Meantime, we’re wondering what the ill cloud over Ohio was today as A shooter wounded 4 in Ohio Walmart store before offing himself.
Rolling up our sleeves for some money-hunting, the first item on the agenda is the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Indicator:
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.49 in October from –0.02 in September. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from September, and all four categories made negative contributions in October. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.22 in October from a neutral value in September.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, fell to –0.20 in October from +0.08 in September. Twenty-four of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in October, while 61 made negative contributions.
We have always admired the Chicago Fed term “negative contribution” since the dictionary seems to think “contribution” is a noun meaning “…a gift or payment that is made…” A negative payment or gift sounds, oh, fuzzy-headed to us. How about “were up” and “were down”?
Down and Away
Early market futures looked like the manic upside run was about over-and-done with, peaking on the holiday lead-in, perhaps?
As you can see, the market has been running bat-shit crazy to the upside. In fact, if you pencil out the annual rate-of-rise from the recent end of October lows, continuing up at this stupid pace over an entire year would more than quadruple market prices. Which is silly, with the exception of real hyperinflation of the Weimar/Zimbabwe type.
Significantly, though, the July 31 market high still held, even though we peeked over 39,000 in our Aggregate Index work. Still about 300 (Aggregate) points from a new Wave II high, so a failure just ahead becomes an area of fertile speculation.
As we have been telling you, our outlook since the (real, all-time high) Nov. 8, 2021, was expected to work out like this in terms of Elliott wave look-ahead analysis:
The close yesterday was 39,054 (and some loose change) so looks like 275-points to go. BUT, a Wave (2) rally following what sure still looks like the start of the larger Wave 3 down is allowed (under Elliott) to retrace up to (but not to best) the inception of the decline.
IF we see a rally and close another 300 points higher, the Print and Pray Protocol will have paid off. But we’re planning to pay very close attention this afternoon to the Fed Minutes when they pop after lunch.
All of this would be much easier to divine if the Wave 2 rally hadn’t started with what looks to have been a double zigzag which further complicates outlooks.
For now, we think a soft decline today, a bit more tomorrow, and we’d see the start of a rollover in the differential moving averages. This, in turn, once flipped, would set a potentially huge decline after the holiday (partial market session Friday).
Which gives us a queasy stomach because the market could fall out of bed here – a HUGE PENDING NEWS EVENT – anything from meteor impacts to terrorism coming to America to Joe Biden’s health – could any (or all) appear to crater America’s self-confidence. Toss in a first use of a nuke on Iran, with follow-ons in NATO’s backyard, and all of our interest in hydroponic growing of food could make tons of sense. Even look like a prophetic action plan.
Not trying to put a cloud over your holiday, of course. But there’s always something to be said for “Keeping It Real.”
Scanning the Wires
Fast-Talker Follies: Gruesome and DeSantis having a red-state/blue-state debate? Isn’t there something on the cooking channels? How about that watching bread bake documentary?
Should have majored in Media Law: With Musk suing Media Matters, here comes another media suit: Trump is suing some outlets over reporting of Truth Social losses.
Climate Change Extremism has hit a new high. Now an urgent threat to pregnant women and children? Like WW3, financial collapse, and planet stripping isn’t? No shame in these one-world government types in the UN subgroups, huh?
Speaking of Overwrought Hype: Have you noticed that there hasn’t been any truce yet and now even Hamas says “close”.
Cryptoworld: End of the line for Binance? Or, know where they could come up with a $4 billion loan? Meanwhile Bitcoin is trying to hold $37,000 round number support. If the market tanks, BTC will fold like a newspaper. S&P Futures down 13 now at click time. Bet on $36.5K tomorrow?
ATR: Ham Notes, Black Friday 2
Around The Ranch our long-delayed ham radio projects are teed up for the long weekend.
A preview (of what may be on ShopTalk Sunday this weekend) is the AC7X Linear Capacitor OCFD Antenna.
An Off Center Fed Dipole is just a long piece of wire – around 140 feet long – which is fed about 2/3rd’s of the way from one side. A conventional dipole is fed in the exact center.
These OCFD antennas work great, but they have one drawback. That is their impedance tends to be higher than 50-ohm coaxial cable feedlines.
Now you get into the power robbing area of baluns. Designed to match BALanced and UNbalanced lines. Except with OCFDs the right answer is an unun (unbalanced to unbalanced) device.
Nice in theory, but even so, the design issue is to work perfectly on the 40-meter (and higher) bands, the resonant point on the lowest band (*80-meters in this design) falls well below the bottom end of the 80-meter/3.5 MHz band.
The answer is to feed the long side at the middle with a series capacitor. Because I run “real” power (1.5 kilowatts CW and SSB) a special “doorknob capacitor” would be needed.
This poses a number of problems (not the least of which include physical mounting, weather protection, current handling capacity, and so forth).
The answer involves 7 1/2-feet of RG-213 coaxial cable wired as a capacitor 6 ft 8-inch section. Because coax cable has about 29.5 to 30 pf per foot. Thus, easy to build a 5000 volt, no current limit, linear capacitor.
Promises to be a fun project. We’ll save the design details for ShopTalk Sunday but should be a dandy antenna to “smoke the bands” with.
Black Friday Rules
Your Shopping Instructor’s last pointers:
- If you are stuck “between sizes” use the season to decide. In other words, I get XL sized shirts for winter and L size for summer.
- Buy a season ahead. Summer fishing shirt specials now, for example.
- Make sure to check shipping date arrival on checkout. Sometimes the defaults will change and you want to know in advance.
- Arrange to have a neighbor pick up packages which could be left in public view.
- Don’t buy something just because it’s cheap. Buy only things you will use in the next 3-months. Christmas and after-Christmas sales will be along soon enough.
- Do a search for “best time of year to buy…” whatever. You might find deals on outdoor furniture and small air conditioners now when it’s cold, that kind of thing.
- Pay off your credit card twice a month. No point giving the ratbastard banktards interest on anything.
There, ready, set, click!!!!
Write when you get rich,