After a modest beat-down Monday, largely driven, we expect by the Russian Default, there is fresh economic data that’s likely to influence the outcome of today’s trading.

Russia’s Monday default is being labeled a “selective default” but we have to wonder if this isn’t something like “partly pregnant.”  Seems to us simple folk here in the Outback that “you either is or you isn’t.”  Either way, we’re pretty sure screwing is involved.  Selectively, of course.

You know, normally when there’s a large decline on Monday, we’d be looking for a “Turnaround Tuesday” but that’s a pretty risky proposition.  Since we do not offer financial advice, you’re on your own.  Good luck with that.

The Big Picture

Markets – like an object in physics pushed in a certain direction – tend to keep going the same way until something stops them.  For now, our Aggregate Index – which is based on equal piles of paper dollars in the S&P, Dow-30, and the NASDAQ, peaked in early November 2021.  We dropped significantly to March 13, then from there a furious rally ensued.

Until it just plain wore itself out in the past week:

This will – of course – change based on the data, but with 150-minutes to the CPI, this is where overnight action pointed.  In Asia, Japan was down 1.8 percent overnight, but the Hang Seng bounced half a percent.  Following the global investment wave into Europe, the UK, France, and Germany were down – likely as much from intermarket arbitrage as actual expectation changes.

NFIB Data

The National Federation of Independent Business has an optimism report that is oftentimes more realistic than “offishul” numbers.  Today’s look like this:

“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased in March by 2.4 points to 93.2, the third consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. Thirty-one percent of owners reported that inflation was the single most important problem in their business, up five points from February and the highest reading since the first quarter of 1981. Inflation has now replaced “labor quality” as the number one problem.”

It’s not a huge deal.  At least compared to…

C.P.I.  Inflation Screams Along

Headline numbers about inflation are next door to meaningless.  I mean, really?  If the price of Energy and Food is raging, but you can get a deep discount (90% off on a flannel shirt, say) are you delusional even considering the shirt?

Of course.  Which is why neither of us is a Federal Reserve Board member – because in that “private Idaho” prices without Food and Energy are what drives  Fed banksters.  (It also explains a lot of policy blunders over time.)

Today’s headline from the press release reads:

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.2 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.”

Annualized, that 1.2 percent month-on-month is 15.38% annualized.  Nothing to see here…move along, Citizen.

But let’s zoom in on the detail level and see how Food and Energy were doing.

To us, it smells of mass bankruptcies.  To the Fed it looks like 6.5%.  And this is before famine gets here…sheesh!

Other than borrow a few mil from Elon Musk, there are no simple coping answers.  It is (bad) what it is (terrible).

It’s “Quarter to Nukes”

While G.A. Stewarts Age of Desolation has provided the 4/4 time from Nostradamus, the “news beat” also involves experts.  We are blessed with a knowledgeable retired Lt. Col. who offers guidance under the moniker warhammer.

“Retired US Army General and former NATO Commander Wesley Clark has been interviewed on CNN several times over the past week.  During the interviews, Clark makes his learned views clear.

In summary: Putin is not retreating, he is regrouping.  He does not intend to stop.

Clark then issued the following (paraphrased) assessment of the situation:

– Putin wants the entire Ukraine, not just Donbas and the land in the south adjoining the Black Sea

– He also covets the Baltic States

– He wants all of Eastern Europe under Russian influence and/or control

– He wants to shatter NATO in order to do this

– His plan is to stall or ‘appear’ to retreat only to reorganize wherever necessary

– He wants to prevent the arming of Ukraine

– China is with him for the long run, as China will heavily borrow from Putin’s playbook

Many pundits are openly saying that Putin and Xi each realize America and its NATO allies have become soft, their leadership weak, indecisive and generally ineffective.  Putin and Xi both realize ‘now’ is their time to act, that they intend to take back what they believe is rightfully Russia’s and China’s (the latter’s prize being Taiwan and several Pacific island groups).

With almost 3 years remaining in the Biden presidency, both Putin and Xi look poised to systematically dominate and annex as much territory as possible as quickly as possible using whatever means necessary.

Should the U.S. choose to try and stop the Russian war machine, Putin has openly threatened to unleash elements of his nuclear arsenal on Ukraine and/or NATO ‘aggressors.’  Tactical nukes, restricted to smaller yields, are thought by many to be the most likely first nuclear weapons of choice, with escalation possible depending upon whether the American led West responds in kind.  Is Putin that crazy?  Crazy as a cold, calculating, psychopathic communist fox.

Make no mistake.  Putin is currently holding the clear advantage, no matter how positively Biden and his Pentagon staff choose to spin what is unfolding in Ukraine.  Americans best realize this uncomfortable fact.  In league with this realization, we must acknowledge several uncomfortable and tangential facts:

– Russia will restrict the flow of oil, both from Russia and from its allies in the Middle East in order to exacerbate Western fuel shortages and economic uncertainty.

– Russia and China will put a stranglehold on as much rare earth metals as possible, impacting everything from battery to chip production.

– In concert with encircling and eventually isolating Taiwan, China will likely nationalize all foreign businesses operating on its shores, including much of the world’s electronics and chip production.

– As a result of the above, inflation is increasingly real, it will not go away, and economic hardships unseen since the Great Depression could well descent upon the West.

The crystal ball looks to be a bit stormy, George.  We’d all best strap ourselves in.  There’s severe turbulence ahead.  Ure readers would be wise to dig into your past columns to read up on emergency food and water acquisition and storage, power generation, communication, shelter, bedding and clothing.  That just might come in handy in the days, weeks, months and years ahead.

Stormy yes.  But there always ways to hedge.

• If Russia does restrict its energy flows that will feed into famine.  Which president Biden has already warned about.  We told you last year this would be the year to get into gardening, even if only a few containers on the apartment deck.  It’s looking like a most useful suggestion by the day.
• China rate earths could influence things like computer parts and even battery-powered construction tools.  The new American-made fine-pitch semis (chips) won’t be coming out of the Phoenix and Michigan new plants until late 2023.
• There’s also the fine pitch chip lithograph technology – sited in Europe – which has to be in Putin’s plans somewhere.  Educate yourself in 16 minutes watching Why The World Relies On ASML For Machines That Print Chips – YouTube. Spare computer and spare power tool batteries may sound extreme now, but in a year?  You’ll need to answer that one.
• When do we stop buying “paper” (equities, bonds, etc.) and reconvert paper back into useful consumable goods?

For those calling for Vlad Putin’s immediate ouster?  All we can say is “Be careful what you wish for…” Putin removal ‘more dangerous for the West’ as potential successor to be ‘more radical.”

Oh, and is hacking American DoD satellites an Act of War?  Russia blocks GPS from US satellites — including those used by private pilots in Sweden and Finland: Pentagon.  Just don’t block Steam, right?

Might want to put this RAND report on your reading stack, too: The Ukraine War’s Three Clocks | RAND.

This brings us to what I label…

The Preppers Dilemma

We fast-forward a year or two in this uncertain future.  You actually have this choice today.

You can have a piece of paper with 3-zeroes to the right of the “1”.  That’s right: a $1,000 Certificate of Deposit.

OR you can have:

• A few tarps to collect water.
• Heritage non-GMO vegetable seeds.
• Serious outdoor clothing.
• A firearm of some kind; sure toss in a knife.
• A flourishing all seasons container garden.
• Foraging skills, living off the land, regional hiking maps, and friends in a far enough from cities place where a restart (like in the TV shows) might be at least possible.
• Potassium Iodide.
• Gym membership.
• Getting nagging dental and medical work done in advance.
• Maybe have a solar panel or 2…good AM/FM/Shortwave radio.

From the perspective of having lived 20-years outside target zones, seems to us a very easy choice. Symbols sell, though.

Most people will never consciously make this type of decision, though.  Only a crotchety old man *like moi) would consider trading in a 2005 Lexus for a new Honda Insight.  Thing is, the average mileage is twice as good on the Insight.

You’d have to be a fool not to notice that energy has been weaponized.”  That’s unlikely to change.

You go think about it…and here are some…

Useless Distractions On the Way

For the masses as though they matter:

Just when you wondered if political correctness disease could become any more silly:  Man, woman or… X: US rolls out gender-neutral passports.

Note for would-be gun-grabbing do-gooders:  Czechs giving free shooting lessons to local Ukrainians.  There’s a reason the right to keep and bear arms is a cornerstone of American democracy.

Taiwan learning from the LDS?  Taiwan’s military releases war survival guide for civilians amid China tensions.  We’ll hold judgment until the official English translations are available for study.

The Art of Futuring:  I wrote on our Peoplenomics.com side that I expected to live to see the last order of fish and chips sold; such was the stripping of oceans.  Getting closer, though: Fish ’n chips knocked off Britain’s national menu by soaring prices, Ukraine war.. Supply and demand, kiddies.

Border?  What border?  Biden continues to cop backlash for his handling of the Texas border.  Side of Title 42 idiocy with that?

And it had to happen sooner or later:  Viral Video: Police pull over driverless car in San Francisco traffic stop.  DMV Code or C code broken, we’re wondering?

Around the Ranch

Weather Spring:  Yes, all the climate change hype in the world won’t let us ignore a spring storm about to impact the mid-section of ‘Merica:  Expansive storm to threaten at least 18 states with severe weather this week.

Local forecasts – which have been running in the mid-70’s to low 80’s might be dialed-back a bit as the storm rolls east.  With it, we’re thinking tornadoes will be making headlines tomorrow or Thursday.  To earlier to shelve the Weather Radio alarm for the season.

Reminder I’m supposed to be on Coast-to-Coast AM with George Noory tonight.  Always fun to do radio.

And tomorrow morning’s Peoplenomics will focus on non-productive jobs as we wonder aloud how much non-productive work can an economy support?

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net