People tend to despise our simple approach to economics. Makes people crazy that the Obvious isn’t really, oh, you know… obvious.
Notwithstanding, we are seeing some data suggesting that farmers will be having a tough time meeting ag needs because of the cold, wet spring in the Midwest. When this happens, food prices will zoom through the roof. And when that happens, you will either eat less or spend a great deal more. Think this fall and into next year.
Some anecdotal data to ponder that serious inflation is at hand:
In the last month, Bitcoin has been as low as $7,500 and this morning’s quote was around $9,240. Traded perfectly, that would be a 23.2 percent gain in one month.
Then there’s our Aggregate index of US markets. From a low of 23,086 early this month, we are eyeing (based on futures prices before today’s open) 25,088. That’s a gain of 8.67 percent in 13 trading days. Beat the bulls with a stick.
And we have to eye Gold, too. Briefly overnight it hit $1,387 while the low in the last month was (according to the Kitco data page here) down far enough to make the 30-day change in gold 8.33%.
Sure looking like the leading edge of hyper-inflation to us.
Play the Circle Game!
Yes, this is how Ure local half-wit spends his time- staring at charts comparing the past with the present and wondering which track we are on:
Hint: Summer Blow-Off looks possible.
And so, we will be running out some “ideas” as to how high the Dow blow-off into late summer should go. An early-morning SWAG says around Dow 30,000 somewhere, just eyeing things. But if A does not = C, then we could have a short, sharp pullback before the final run to the top late summer. But more on the Peoplenomics side Saturday.
The Fed, predictably, held rates unchanged yesterday but the market is soaring anyway, just as it did in the spring of 1929 as the hopes were piling on. As we cautioned previously, though, when the Fed does lower rates, it will be because of a crisis and that will be when NOT to be on the long side of markets.
Fresh Econ Data
From the Bureau of Economic Analysis:
Translation: The U.S. current-account deficit decreased to $130.4 billion (preliminary) in the first quarter of 2019 from $143.9 billion (revised) in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit was 2.5 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product in the first quarter, down from 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter.
Meantime, the Philly Fed Business Outlook is returning to Earth:
Dow futures were up 230 points with :50 to the opening ding.
Can you say “short inflation, short blow-off?”
After Reparations: Chargebacks?
Democrats – hard pressed to find anything big to bitch about and suck in voters with – are cleverly working the racial divisions in America trying to set up some kind of play for 2020.
You heard is with Bernie who’s best shot at Trump after Orlando this week was to call Trump a racist and a homophobe.
And then there was Juneteenth and the reparation’s study hearings.” As you would expect, when a black author got up and said words to the effect “What we really need is safe streets and education” and such, he was booed. Being black and being against the lefty political agenda is just not done, you understand.
While I was pondering the rudeness of the left (almost a full-time gig) it occurred to me that although white, perhaps the Ure family is due reparations as well.
Fact is, at the US Civil War Memorial in Vicksburg, Mississippi, we looked up what the Ure family did during the War Between the States: 20 died fighting for the North while 3 died fighting for the South.
To our dimwitted way of figuring it, that means the Ure family should be due “reparations relief” to the tune of 85% for the 17 people in the family who fought and died for black people’s rights while never owning a single slave in family history. A charge-back?.
See why we need to just move along and fix equality for all and just get over this political monetization nonsense the left is pushing? Too damn many lawyers in the world, already.
The Wall St. Journal Screws-Up
Speaking of agendas and the left, it looks to us like there’s a lefty-lock on the Op-Ed pages of the WSJ nowadays. With headlines like:
“Accusing the New York Times of ‘Treason,’ Trump Crosses a Line.” No, if they outed secret cyber-security activities, and yeah, that is treason. (Has any editor at the Times ever had a DoD clearance? We gotta wonder…)
We would expect American cyber-forces to not only probe Russian, but also Chinese and Iranian power grids.
As we see it, no number of “made up “ethical lines” can pardon the NYT’s disregard for America’s security. Especially with word today that Iran has shot down a US Drone, now.
Meanwhile “New York Times CEO rips into Trump: His attacks on the press are ‘stupid’ and ‘dangerous’.” Does not Mark Thompson not read his own paper? The lies about “collusion” and such pap pushed real news (try a do-nothing Congress) off the front page of the once-great paper for how long? 2-1/2 years now? To our eye, the NY Post has become the “balanced rag” in Gotham.
Doubling down on socialism, the Wall St Journal then runs with “A Second Term – For What?”
If you can STFU and silence the voices in your head long enough, here’s the answer: “To actually hold the Presidency for four-freaking years? He was denied, near as we can figure 18-months of productivity by the incessant, shrill, demagoguery of democrat-backed slander reposted by co-opted leftist journalists…”
God, we look forward to the William Barr report… I know, I know…who’s counting, right? Why was Obama not held to such standards and why is Hillary free? The FBI’s innards were hijacked to spin – and Obama intel chiefs were in on it by our read of the docs- as an election was interfered with and STILL no jail time for the perps yet? I mean WTF…(sorry, I’ll take a chill pill now…) Using intel and law enforcement for political ends, though, is totally Soviet, don’t you think? FMTT.
If they don’t clean house, we will hence-forth call it the KBI or the OBI of the CBI or….
Drone Down Jacks the Pump
From .mil contributor warhammer:
“In accordance with Ure ‘everything’s a business model’ line of thinking, Iran plinking a Global Hawk UAV out of the skies over the Persian Gulf will likely cost all of us at the pump.
Furthermore, the provocative course of action by the Iranians seems akin to the neighborhood nuisance literally begging for a fight while three of his ‘got your back’ buddies are hiding out nearby. This open and calculated belligerence is, IMO, a calculated strategy by Iran, fully supported by their Russian overseers. As you know, Russian oil prices will surely spike in Europe as the prospects for some level of military action rises in the Persian Gulf.
Iran’s boldness is no doubt due to their knowing Putin has the Islamic Republic’s backs, or at least that’s what Putin is likely telling the Mullahs. So a likely chess counter-move is for the U.S. to have one of our regional proxies engage with Iran (best candidates are Israel or the Saudis). Netanyahu could use the distraction to take the political heat off of himself and his wife.
BOTTOM LINE: Admiral Ackbar’s advice applies to these acts of aggression by Iran (with nods to Star Wars, ‘Return of the Jedi’): “It’s a trap!”
We should know in a week or two who’s in it… Remember, in the 29 replay, we get a short sharp pullback in the A=C case,, so this might be the trigger. (With apologies to Trigger, of course.)
Also Pissing Us Off (APUO)
Here’s how the media gets crooked: Story is “Apologize for what?”: Biden defends comments about working with segregationist senators. Why aren’t the lefty-pawns calling Biden a racist? They damn-sure would if it was Trump! It would be an “impeachable!”
Hey! Open Border Clowns! One of your Obama sneak-ins! Pittsburgh resident, Syrian man arrested on terrorism charges after allegedly planning attack on Christian church. How many more unvetted are out there still plotting?
Severe storms unleash high winds, heavy rain and baseball-sized hail on the South. Blew one of the roof panels off my greenhouse when the latest line of storms rolled through here about midnight.
Putin, Hit by Ratings Drop, Tells Russians a Better Life Awaits. We’ve heard evangelists say the same thing. Different source materials, though…
Here’s one for Seattle and San Fran to pay attention to: Homelessness crisis spurs recall effort against Los Angeles mayor.
Speaking of Seattle…
Politicians and Unions
Left-leaning politicians are known for pushing union agendas. While we hold no particular grudge against unions, in economic terms they give slackers more pay than they deserve and “average down” people who really excel at their trade or craft.
So it’s interesting to watch what’s going down in Seattle today where Teamsters are “partnering” with some of the libs on the Seattle City Council in an attempt to unionize ride-sharing services like Uber and Lyft.
An email from the (non-union) Drive Forward group runs it down like this for drivers:
“Things are heating up with the City of Seattle. Councilmember Kshama Sawant recently called our rideshare businesses “sweatshops on wheels,” and now, the Teamsters are pressuring the Council to pass new legislation based off misrepresentations the Teamsters have made about our businesses and our earnings.
We’re going to meet at the Drive Forward office THIS Thursday, June 20th at 10am, then head to City Hall where we’ll rally to send a message that our businesses are #NotASweatshop and that drivers want to maintain our freedom and flexibility as independent business owners. “
George (the Uber Driver – son-) will not be attending, because he will be on the grind. Money first, politics second. But he might send a letter in as a driver that might go something like this:
“The Seattle City Council is moving in a dangerous direction that should scare the hell out of any business wishing to move to Seattle. Small businesses, especially those that are based on individual hard work and initiative, should think long and hard about this socialist move of the city council.
Why didn’t unions organize Microsoft, Adobe, and Amazon? Where was the council when the baristas were being short-tipped in the early days of Starbucks?
Ya’ll are looking like socialist profiteers out here on the street; anxious to “regulate unionism” into businesses with a local presence.
What you might do – as an alternative – is to treat all businesses fairly and leave union-related issues to the Federal government and the National Labor Relations Board.
Oh, and leave the driving to us.”
Don’t know if he will actually send it, but near as we can figure it, legislating in unions is a grab at low-handing fruit by the Teamsters. Most ride-sharing drivers are only onboard for a short time (high turn-over positions) and that means they will never be around long enough to vest in the union, so if the politicians can be horn-swoggled, then it’s like “found money” for the union.
Moron the ‘morrow…