The early futures today were where we were expecting them following the late-week decline last week.  While we won’t give away the whole enchilada, our view Saturday was…

“…the market would rally Monday and then a Turnaround Tuesday and then…”

Which sure seems like the same shoe-size.  Except, while we were looking for some kind of China-thaw, the mini-trade-deal with Japan is being bandied about like its meaningful. Any port (especially a well-aged tawny one) in a storm, huh?

Even the less agenda-driven of the Big Gotham papes, the  NY Post is ran with “Japan calls US trade deal ‘very valuable,’ denies it gave Trump too much.

Unfortunately for the GlobalPop, the trade war is only symptomatic of a larger and more troubling global context which we will lay out (along with flash goggles!) for  Peoplenomics readers Wednesday.

In the meantime, though, we have two morsels of medicine-lite to serve the Trade War critics.

First is the CFNAI:  Chicago Fed National Activity Report which distills down to this… (say “Ah!):

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked up to –0.02 in June from –0.03 in May. One of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from May, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to –0.26 in June from –0.27 in May.

Which picturizes as:

Second dose-o-data is Durable Goods picture:

None of which is particular conclusive. At least in the long-term. But, since the economy is a poker game based on pseudo-data, we reckon our Saturday outlook for bounce today, maybe to the European close tomorrow and then…well, let’s watch the snooze flow between now and Tuesday’s close for hints.

The Rest of the Week Matters

It should be instructive, too.  There are so many damn cross and counter-currents to integrate into a “whole-cloth” view it takes a second cuppa mud just to mount the data points in the MMJS (Mental Model Juggling Space) to see what might fit.  Let’s see…

  • Traders Almanac usually places the average annual market high somewhere in this vicinity: August 26-28th
  • The all-time high prior to the Crash of ’29 was on September 3rd.
  • Labor Day was created in 1894, in case the cops pull you over and administer a Stanford-Binet on the way to work this morning.  The DATE isn’t what matters, it’s the fact that we often see a brightening of mood prior to a big National Holiday.
  • Except, in periods of (thanks Mel Brooks)  High Anxiety, people tend to sell-off short-term positions rather than risk exposure to unpredictable holiday TrumperyTweets and who knows what Xi will do next in places like NK, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.  Time risk does matter…
  • Then there’s the press releases with data to ponder before we get to Friday:
    • Case Shiller Housing Index tomorrow morning.  Which means a two-part report.  We’re expecting prices to begin a slow-rollover, depending on how well the nay-sayers do creating a downer national-mood swing.
    • Wednesday should be “All Quiet on the Data Front” so this is when to schedule that tooth filling.
    • Because Thursday we get not only the Gross Domestic Product but also International Trade (down due to  Maxx?) and corporate profits as well.
    • Friday rounds out with personal income (and savings and such)

Also into the model mix, toss falling gas prices. Triple A puts the national average gallon at $2.591 today which is down a bunch from $2.837 a year-ago.

That gets us to a deeper ponder:  Elaine went shopping (it’s just two of us, remember) and set a new “Personal Best” Saturday:  $445.75.  OK, there was a jug of wine in there, some filets and such, but seems empirically like food prices are going up.  Which is why planting the fall garden is about to get underway.

Point is, https://gasbuddy.com says the local price of gas is $2.25 while the filets were $30-some-bucks a pair.  Economists call this “bifurcation.”  Others would call it gluttony…just can’t please everyone, I guess.  Seasoning salt?

The odds on the Indo-Pak War need to be considered.  The Diplomat carries yet-another hint as we’ve been yammering about: There’s a legit risk of a regional nuclear war.   “If India Rethinks Nuclear No First Use, It Won’t Surprise Pakistan or China.”

Was it here, or on PNwe laid out the four “classes” of limited war.  Five, really, if it escalates to global themo-popcorn with a side of melted everything…

Last things to load into Monday’s MMJS?

Precious metals prices have an almost $20 range for the day. Bitcoin is holding $10,375 for now…and in terms of pending items, let’s keep our fingers crossed things will remain rational.

With all the variables loaded, we’ll just plug a wet finger into an electrical socket (pretending to do an immitation of a blender) and see what comes out.

Don’t worry, the odds of a sure-fire 50-percent day-trade in this world are still remarkably low so we will continue to sit in cash till the rally fever of today breaks.

As Trump Proposes To Hold Next G-7 Summit At His Miami Golf Resort, we just wish he’d stop puttering around.

Dow futures +175 which comes as no surprise.

What Passes for News?

Oh, boy…what a pantload here.  Ready?

Yet another version of Life-Changing Drugs Almost Nobody Can Afford.”  Say, did I ever mention my “Bank Robbery as a Retirement option” plan?

You kinda know when they’re not home, right? NASA investigating allegations of identity theft involving space station astronaut.

Late in the season, but better than never, we figure: How Wearing Sunglasses Actually Impacts Your Eyes, According to Science.

New Product concept? Google and Dell Technologies’ New Chromebook Is Designed for Business Users.  Say, is “business users” jingo-ese for “higher price point?”  Thought we’d ask…

Give ’em the Bird Dept: KFC will soon be serving vegan fried chicken — with Beyond Meat’s help.

Bashing ol’ Trump; Never Stops as  CNN rolls with “Axios: Trump floated the idea of using nuclear bombs to stop hurricanes headed for US.”

Why do we label this as just-another-bash?”  It’s when the (too liberal and stupid for our tastes) media doesn’t check a Big Lie Premise.  Examples?  It wasn’t such a stupid question when it came up on the LOS ALAMOS NATIONAL LABS BRADBURY SCIENCE MUSEUM website where they work on Nukes, for crying out loud! When Trump asks it’s stupid? So many people ask that NOAA has a whole mage on point over here. WTF?  Instead of a 10-second search the BS-MSM runs a bash.  That ain’t reporting – that’s bullshit left-wing-driven agenda-pimp media Trump-bashing in our view.

You go ponder that.  I’m going to ponder breakfast.

Write when you get rich,

george@ure.net