Bounce! Dose of Data and Trouble Past Trade

The early futures today were where we were expecting them following the late-week decline last week.  While we won’t give away the whole enchilada, our view Saturday was…

“…the market would rally Monday and then a Turnaround Tuesday and then…”

Which sure seems like the same shoe-size.  Except, while we were looking for some kind of China-thaw, the mini-trade-deal with Japan is being bandied about like its meaningful. Any port (especially a well-aged tawny one) in a storm, huh?

Even the less agenda-driven of the Big Gotham papes, the  NY Post is ran with “Japan calls US trade deal ‘very valuable,’ denies it gave Trump too much.

Unfortunately for the GlobalPop, the trade war is only symptomatic of a larger and more troubling global context which we will lay out (along with flash goggles!) for  Peoplenomics readers Wednesday.

In the meantime, though, we have two morsels of medicine-lite to serve the Trade War critics.

First is the CFNAI:  Chicago Fed National Activity Report which distills down to this… (say “Ah!):

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked up to –0.02 in June from –0.03 in May. One of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from May, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to –0.26 in June from –0.27 in May.

Which picturizes as:

Second dose-o-data is Durable Goods picture:

None of which is particular conclusive. At least in the long-term. But, since the economy is a poker game based on pseudo-data, we reckon our Saturday outlook for bounce today, maybe to the European close tomorrow and then…well, let’s watch the snooze flow between now and Tuesday’s close for hints.

The Rest of the Week Matters

It should be instructive, too.  There are so many damn cross and counter-currents to integrate into a “whole-cloth” view it takes a second cuppa mud just to mount the data points in the MMJS (Mental Model Juggling Space) to see what might fit.  Let’s see…

  • Traders Almanac usually places the average annual market high somewhere in this vicinity: August 26-28th
  • The all-time high prior to the Crash of ’29 was on September 3rd.
  • Labor Day was created in 1894, in case the cops pull you over and administer a Stanford-Binet on the way to work this morning.  The DATE isn’t what matters, it’s the fact that we often see a brightening of mood prior to a big National Holiday.
  • Except, in periods of (thanks Mel Brooks)  High Anxiety, people tend to sell-off short-term positions rather than risk exposure to unpredictable holiday TrumperyTweets and who knows what Xi will do next in places like NK, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.  Time risk does matter…
  • Then there’s the press releases with data to ponder before we get to Friday:
    • Case Shiller Housing Index tomorrow morning.  Which means a two-part report.  We’re expecting prices to begin a slow-rollover, depending on how well the nay-sayers do creating a downer national-mood swing.
    • Wednesday should be “All Quiet on the Data Front” so this is when to schedule that tooth filling.
    • Because Thursday we get not only the Gross Domestic Product but also International Trade (down due to  Maxx?) and corporate profits as well.
    • Friday rounds out with personal income (and savings and such)

Also into the model mix, toss falling gas prices. Triple A puts the national average gallon at $2.591 today which is down a bunch from $2.837 a year-ago.

That gets us to a deeper ponder:  Elaine went shopping (it’s just two of us, remember) and set a new “Personal Best” Saturday:  $445.75.  OK, there was a jug of wine in there, some filets and such, but seems empirically like food prices are going up.  Which is why planting the fall garden is about to get underway.

Point is, says the local price of gas is $2.25 while the filets were $30-some-bucks a pair.  Economists call this “bifurcation.”  Others would call it gluttony…just can’t please everyone, I guess.  Seasoning salt?

The odds on the Indo-Pak War need to be considered.  The Diplomat carries yet-another hint as we’ve been yammering about: There’s a legit risk of a regional nuclear war.   “If India Rethinks Nuclear No First Use, It Won’t Surprise Pakistan or China.”

Was it here, or on PNwe laid out the four “classes” of limited war.  Five, really, if it escalates to global themo-popcorn with a side of melted everything…

Last things to load into Monday’s MMJS?

Precious metals prices have an almost $20 range for the day. Bitcoin is holding $10,375 for now…and in terms of pending items, let’s keep our fingers crossed things will remain rational.

With all the variables loaded, we’ll just plug a wet finger into an electrical socket (pretending to do an immitation of a blender) and see what comes out.

Don’t worry, the odds of a sure-fire 50-percent day-trade in this world are still remarkably low so we will continue to sit in cash till the rally fever of today breaks.

As Trump Proposes To Hold Next G-7 Summit At His Miami Golf Resort, we just wish he’d stop puttering around.

Dow futures +175 which comes as no surprise.

What Passes for News?

Oh, boy…what a pantload here.  Ready?

Yet another version of Life-Changing Drugs Almost Nobody Can Afford.”  Say, did I ever mention my “Bank Robbery as a Retirement option” plan?

You kinda know when they’re not home, right? NASA investigating allegations of identity theft involving space station astronaut.

Late in the season, but better than never, we figure: How Wearing Sunglasses Actually Impacts Your Eyes, According to Science.

New Product concept? Google and Dell Technologies’ New Chromebook Is Designed for Business Users.  Say, is “business users” jingo-ese for “higher price point?”  Thought we’d ask…

Give ’em the Bird Dept: KFC will soon be serving vegan fried chicken — with Beyond Meat’s help.

Bashing ol’ Trump; Never Stops as  CNN rolls with “Axios: Trump floated the idea of using nuclear bombs to stop hurricanes headed for US.”

Why do we label this as just-another-bash?”  It’s when the (too liberal and stupid for our tastes) media doesn’t check a Big Lie Premise.  Examples?  It wasn’t such a stupid question when it came up on the LOS ALAMOS NATIONAL LABS BRADBURY SCIENCE MUSEUM website where they work on Nukes, for crying out loud! When Trump asks it’s stupid? So many people ask that NOAA has a whole mage on point over here. WTF?  Instead of a 10-second search the BS-MSM runs a bash.  That ain’t reporting – that’s bullshit left-wing-driven agenda-pimp media Trump-bashing in our view.

You go ponder that.  I’m going to ponder breakfast.

Write when you get rich,

51 thoughts on “Bounce! Dose of Data and Trouble Past Trade”

  1. One should not forget the USAF 2025 study (published in 1996) and their associated “Weather as a Force Multiplier” research paper. While nukes are not specifically called out, many of the effects in this unclassified version of the report provide hints to that envisioned capability (e.g. ionospheric modification, electromagnetic radiation and deploying artificial weather).

      • George,
        -Not see anywhere in the Nuke Hurricane story where the story is calling the idea dumb or stupid. Looks like straight reporting to me on a newsworthy (use of nukes) topic. (Looks like the idea not work, even with conventional explosives. But still seems an OK idea to at least raise.)
        -Looks to me, IMHO, that you projected your conclusions onto a neutral reporting event.
        -The ‘projection’ can take several forms that only you can answer. Did you yourself think it was a dumb idea, and went on from there? Or did you assume that any story about Trump by CNN is negative, so bashed them reflexively? Are you implying that any real newsworthy event that might even tangentially make Trump look dumb has to be killed? Or something else?
        -Then you imply Marxism to some vague someone who seems nonexistent, but who doesn’t like Trump? Not sure of that relevancy. Maybe implying that only a Marxist might disagree with Trump? (Which, BTW, I’d say it’s pretty safe to say that Marxism lost to Capitalism when the Wall fell in the 20th century.)
        Best, Mike.

    • exactly W/H… look when most of the operations take place.. on the verge of the bad weather and holidays.. take out the grid in winter you destroy ten times more just letting the weather take its toll..The weather softens them up.. then again.. let the opposing forces spend themselves broke is another way.. chasing ghosts.. men machines and money.. how many places can you be in and still adequately defend the homeland. we have people jumping the fence here and legislators saying give them entrance.. while our men and women are stationed someplace else..

      • “we have people jumping the fence here and legislators saying give them entrance.. while our men and women are stationed someplace else..”

        THINK! WE VOTED FOR THIS. ;-((

      • “THINK! WE VOTED FOR THIS. ;-(( ”

        Unfortunately bolshevik….we do every election.. a congressman or woman has a 98% chance of being reelected .. and it doesnt matter if they have thirty years of poor attendance and crappy voting history. Its split in theres always half of the influenced there to guide the new members on what to do. Then the courts made it legal to do it..

  2. TRUMPY BEAR – Guaranteed to make you successful. It was advertised on TV yesterday. It has golden blond hair.

    There is a sucker born every minute, & 2 to take his money.

    • LOL LOL LOL thanks for sharing that.. I ordered one LOL LOL

      when he ran I collect yard signs of those I truly support.. the DJT yard sign was first class I never put it out..

    • Trumpy Bear came out before he took The Oath. The first time I saw the commercial i LMAO. The second, I started to ponder how the manufacturer brought such a product to market without cutting the Trump Organization in on the profits… then I researched the “Teddy Bear.”

      The mfgr or distributor runs the commercial periodically in a 7-day saturation block, 3-4 times per year, and usually during late-night male-oriented TV like the history, military, outdoors, and car channels. ‘Still snicker when it runs and fantasize about the reaction it would bring if someone EVER ran it during BBT or a football game…

      • Last year I bought a bunch of the Chinese made Trump dollars off Ebay. When I was at restaurants or bars I’d randomly roll one off.

  3. Catch-22 for these drug prices, since there is no free market. Companies likely will limit/stop investments in this kind of research if they have pricing limits. People have insurance pay, (those that have it), so they don’t necessarily care about the price. This is a tough thing for insurance or centralized medicine. One or two patients like this can cause the program to go negative or cause huge price hikes for everyone. This is why all these programs end up requiring the death panels to stop servicing such crazy expensive illnesses. Society cannot afford to save everyone, drugs that help < 20 people or vaccines that help millions. Those are balancing decisions that payers have to make. Not everyone can be saved at "any" cost, we have to face there are limited resources.

  4. Is this bounce just a snack to suck you in? Trump speak should drive the markets much lower this week. Beware though, of the Waffle. The Japan trade agreement is just fluff. China hates Japan.

  5. I was just doing some business in India last week. Talk of Kashmir turned to this age old axiom: “the problem will never be solved if both sides benefit”. (apply this to political issues in the US – guns, racism, and so forth)

    So it’s a golden issue for either side, and taking it away unleashes deep unbalance.

    • “I was just doing some business in India last week.”

      My god Phil.E I am seriously jealous.. that is one of the countries that I have visiting on my bucket list.. along with china and russia and egypt and turkey if everyone would ever grow up.. .. ( I did have friends in the embassy send me pictures of the buildings in russia.. beautiful people wonderful landscapes great gothic construction)
      Idida is one beautiful place great people.. great history.. I would love to see some of the old monasteries and temples to..
      It has been a dream of mine.. unfortunately it is through literature and the National Geographic that I get to visit them in my imagination..

  6. George Forget robbing a bank, a better option is a Post Office, a Federal crime and you get to go to one of those federal country club prisons

    • OTFLMAO…….

      Neither LOL… why someone would rob a bank is beyond me.. years ago I worked overnights and would stop over at the credit union after work have coffee till they opened the door.. one day they were setting up the til… they had just a few bucks for each til.. then the manager said.. don’t tell anyone.. LOL LOL the money is all in paper and digital.. some big roller come in and ask for cash.. would close a bank..
      Now at a department store.. I was a department head.. one night they had sent security home and the store still unlocked and people just finishing up.. they started the count.. tossed a half million on the floor and started counting.. I said really are you kidding me.. I don’t care if you get thumped but the one that will get it is the janitor in the back of the building.. I carried a crow bar with me till they went home..

      • No need for a gun Just go in say this is a robbery, give me all your money and stamps than go out and sit in your car to the feds get there and surrender

  7. “The odds on the Indo-Pak War need to be considered. The Diplomat carries yet-another hint as we’ve been yammering about: There’s a legit risk of a regional nuclear war. ”

    I might be wrong.. but I think that whole situation is about raw resources.. seems that they signed agreements for assistance from russia and china..,-China-sign-Free-Trade-Agreement-Phase-II-

    there are forces that control whole countries to TAKE raw resources that they feel is important to them to gain wealth and power..
    a nuclear war will not achieve that goal.. turn it into a glass parking lot.. well you can’t mine it..
    Unless like a spoiled child they are at the point where they say to themselves… if I can’t have it then no one will have it.. that is when they will make us go and fight another war..and take it to that level..
    Its all about power and money.. having control over raw resources .. the paper crap they could care less about… its just paper or a number on a screen.. that is why they are printing like no tomorrow.. of course that is my opinion.. I personally am not afraid of a nuclear war.. even if the media that they control is hinting at it.. it doesn’t make logical sense

    • what I find hilarious is.. if there was a war and the countries all retaliated against each other.. who would get the retaliation.. the greedy manipulators that it should be directed towards.. or the dufus’s that let them manipulate them into jeopardizing the good people they are suppose to be looking out for….
      since the vast majority of the manipulators don’t live or reside in the usa or many of the countries that they manipulate to fulfill their fantasy.. they would be free from repercussion.. the other thing is they have just as many ties in those other countries to manipulate them as well.. sort of like playing checkers with yourself wouldn’t you think..all while they are free to cause more grief someplace else.. MY hopes are that Ping and Putin and the wild cards like Kim know this.. Or if they will follow the lead that the greedy ones set forth for them to follow and will go after a bunch of innocent country people that have no intentions of causing anyone harm , that have idiot leaders willing to let some greedy bastards manipulate them into taking these stupid chances with the good people of the planet….
      I think it would turn into a world we never would have imagined..

    • Logic doesn’t govern retaliation and revenge killing. The only sure way to stop a nuclear war is to not allow the first munition to be detonated. Fear the zealots who want to right mythical wrongs.

  8. “…the market would rally Monday and then a Turnaround Tuesday and then…”

    Where is our local “seer” Andy when we need him? ;)

  9. To: looking out of the box

    ” I personally am not afraid of a nuclear war.”

    I have been on the giving side of that issue.

    You have no idea of the power of these weapons.

    A war head the size of a large refrigerator could make New York city disappear.

    Be afraid. Be very afraid!!

      • Agreed on the New York bug out.

        Go Google nuclear weapon W53.

        9.2 MT of nasty.

        All gone now, Thank God!

      • A very Good point to ponder.. get out of New York so you can die from lack of food or energy and of radiation poisoning. Slow miserable freeze to death because of a nuclear winter.. or die fast in a flash..

      • LOOB: I feel the need to bless you with another Rayism…

        “Where there’s life, there’s hope. Where there’s no life, there’s no hope…”

        A one in a million chance for survival is infinitely better than a zero in a million chance.

    • I feel the need to respond, since I live in NYC close to where the blast would set off ;-((.

      My point is always, We’re doing it to ourselves, each and every individual (including myself!) because we are such inferior human beings. Just look around you at the “waste called humanity.” Sorry to be that blunt, but all I ever hear is me, me, me, and too many times I,I,I, etc..

    • “I have been on the giving side of that issue.

      You have no idea of the power of these weapons.”

      I hear ya Mike… I don’t have a clue on the power they have..and it would turn a country into a wasteland. Just looking at the results from Fukushima on the PNW is sobering..
      My lack of fear isn’t because I dont respect the destructive.power they yield but mlm more that I’m betting on greed.
      Almost every war that’s ever been can be followed back to a relatively small group wanting control of raw resources.
      To destroy the land that holds those coveted materials rendering them unavailable would not be beneficial to their end game.
      Then theres the alternate results.. the worlds leaders sit with their fingers close to the button of mutual global destruction.
      The USA has not prepared the people or made preperation for the people. They only have prepared for a small few. The DUMB close to a friends farm is for a thousand people a small town.
      I think if there was something to happen that first the one that does it doesnt want retaliation so either make it appear to be a natural event..( an act of god) let the few go to the bunkers the masses die off then come in with the resources to save the remaining…sort of like the dog in a box..put a dog in a box then let it out the dog is so grateful that you saved him.
      Or a biological element..or an internal event.
      Some event that couldn’t be traced back.. but nuclear ..definitely a threat but one the real instigators wouldn’t benefit over. It is a slippery slope though. Mostly I believe that even though the instigators think they have control they have no nervous person and the end game is in play. Kim is one of those.. the minute you started hearing about the raw resources of NK you started seeing threats of retaliation..I believe he would push the button setting off a global event that would basically kill off mankind.

  10. “Yet another version of “Life-Changing Drugs Almost Nobody Can Afford.” Say, did I ever mention my “Bank Robbery as a Retirement option” plan?”

    I have a condition that is scarier than heck.. I have a hernia where my stomach will go up and behind the heart.. oh yes.. you never experienced anything till that has happened to you.. so much that they go in and stretch scar tissue quite regularly.. ( another one is when they put me out I am still hearing conversations and parts of conversations etc.. one time when they went in there was a doctor that was not a specialist when they pulled out the scope the stomach came with.. ) anyway.. there was a surgical procedure that the doctor at the time wanted to do.. the insurance company would send me brochures from hospitals outside the usa because this expensive surgery would be cheaper.. I never got the surgery..decided to live with it.. for expensive medications the elderly here just head south to texas where they can go into mexico to get the medications.. I seen on sixty minutes were some were moving to another country getting their SS checks there and living like kings..

  11. There are no hurricanes so far this season because the amount of dust from the sahara over the atlantic is at all time high levels. This suppresses the formation of hurricanes, so if a nuke was used it would be of more benefit if it were exploded in the desert. The dust is also at higher latitudes than usual, going into the gulf of mexico, when most years it goes south and fertilizes the northern Amazon which has only a couple of inches of topsoil.

    And BTW, the fires in the amazon are smaller than the fires burning in Africa, and not much larger than those in Siberia this year. Its just that the president of Brazil is out of favor with western (USA) interests. Are you starting to see how your news gets cooked?

    • The “Amazon Fires” are being overreported because someone sent Leonardo DeCaprio a few pix and he twited(sic) them to his bazillion followers. Most of the photos are archival, from the 2007 and 2009 fire seasons, but that fact escaped ol’ Leo and his brain tryst worshippers.

      Hint: The Amazon “burns” every year. It is not new, unusual, or unnatural. It happens. For the worldender crowd: Take a ride to the Land of the Southern Cross — or just read a friggin’ book… and shut your mouths and keyboards until you acquire a clue about your spew!

  12. NUKE,,,Insurance companies ,BANKSTERS and HARRP facilities….all problems discussed today, are taken care of….then we can all wait for the …Fallout

  13. So Trump isn’t capable of doing a quick 10-second search on a nuclear bomb ask. Perhaps that’s why the BS-MSM considered the question coming from a President as so inane since a quick 10 second search on the topic would have ended it before it was hatched.

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