This is the day a good part of America goes nuts. Bonkers, bahzitsu, meshuga… We expect treatment stations for seasonal illnesses such as “click sprain” and “credit card burn” plus “package-induced back strains” will be full by mid-afternoon.
This being Black Friday, as always, odds are good that you’ll be hitting the major sites, too.
Sadly, we already are seeing reports like “Huge Black Friday brawl inside mall as ‘shopper throws shoe which hits baby’ and women wrestle on floor…” in a frenzy that started last night with “U.S. online sales surge, shoppers throng stores on Thanksgiving evening.” Gotta love it… Turkey and materialism overdoses at the same time.
The wealth effect should be apparent to all: It’s the economics analog to not just counting your chickens before they hatch, but actually trying to cook an omelet with ’em and make a bucket of chicken, too. Like so many things in America these days, it doesn’t have to make sense…it’s just what we do.
Bitcoins this morning were still in the $8,250 range (we are half-looking for $9,500 before sobriety appears) but there’s no way of telling how splits and folks will work out. Toss in the CME looking at crypto futures and a strange analogy comes to mind – which is our point-of-the-day.
Once upon a time there was a world when gold and silver ruled. They were recognized as real “storehouses of value.”
But then, along about 1905 (or thereabouts) along came chartalism which redefined life as we know it.
You see, previously, governments salted away gold and silver. But the key notion of chartalism is that governments can just “make up money on the fly” so long as they have taxing authority.
One thing leads to another, but the key question for you distills to this:
“What do you think “money” is?”
Back in 2001, or might have been 2002, we postulated (with the world on the brink of an economic meltdown in the wake of the Tech Wreck hitting the wall) that governments might be able to “muddle through” a then-pending Great Depression (which still hangs over the world like the sword of Damocles) by consciously out-printing deflation.
So far, it’s working. The Fed has continued to print more money than is necessary – and making it up has fueled something called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Free Lunch theory come to life. (For now…)
Money is being transitioned out of “representing a fixed amount of some physical good or commodity” and it’s becoming a “made up notion based on The Printer’s future ability to collect taxes.”
You wouldn’t ride in an airplane if it was based on the “Future sobriety of the pilot in time to land…” But, that’s not exactly how economics works. As long as the passengers on the plane don’t panic, the plane can fly forever. (Fuel and cockpit breathalyzer readings notwithstanding.)
The theory is that as long as you print just enough more than is necded, people will keep spending.
Those 59,974 people who filed for non-business bankruptcies in September alone? Collateral damage. Sorry. Sh*t happens.
The good news – and there’s a fair bit of it – is that since the Housing Bubble, there has been a decline in things like- like credit card delinquency rates:
As you can see (credit where due): Credit card delinquencies did recover surprisingly quickly following the Housing Bubble collapse. Gold stars all around. Yes, the Obama administration and the Fed can take some bows. We calls ’em like we see’s ’em.
What makes for a Depression, understand, is when confidence fails and people’s faith in the future is shattered. They pull in their horns and stop spending. As the spending stops, what was once the virtuous cycles turns into it’s evil opposite: The Vicious Cycle. So far, though, the confidence game has continued non-step.
The data above seems to suggest that we could have a better than expected retailing season this year. Bankruptcies are down, there are more people working, and in generally the “Trump Bump” is moving along nicely.
True, stock valuations have completely unhinged from future earnings projections and yeah, we don’t need those connections in a bat-sh*t crazy world where everything is a floating craps game, but that’s today’s world.
So have a wonderful day of pick & click…we’ll update you Monday (or early next week) when the tallies start coming in.
For now, between hearing the clatter of hooves on roofs, we don’t expect the world to end, unless there’s an “out of left field” event – like a massive DDoS attack during shopping prime-time.
Meantime, though, I’m looking at “smart home” devices (Black Friday-Cyber Monday Clearance Sale Day 2017-Wireless Mini Smart Plug Outlet, Works with Alexa,WiFi Smart Socket Outlet Remote Control,No Hub Required) but it’s bothering me a bit:
I have to take care that our “double-wide in the woods” doesn’t end up smarter than its occupants…
Yes, Markets Are Open
But they will be closing at 1 PM eastern time today. The Fed data not released yesterday will be released after the market close today. If you were going to “hide bad news” in press releases, announcing when the market is closed would be ideal.
So we will look at all things federal after the close and see if there’s any grist for tomorrow’s Peoplenomics.com report for subscribers…
Dow futures are up another 65, or so.
Mail will be delivered today and tomorrow and most parking meters will be working…
The Watch List
Trump diplomacy working? China closing main road connection with North Korea.
Eight Men Found Washed Ashore in Japan Say They Are North Korean. So much for the worker’s paradise pitch, eh?
But also be aware of this from CNN: Pilots train every day for 12-minute flight to battle in North Korea. Hmmm///
Indictments to Come?
If Mexico Can Do It….
Why is the (effectively bought-off) FDA still shoving GMO’s down American gullets?
OK, off to make (guess what kind) of sandwich…see you tomorrow (Peoplenomics) or here Monday…=