Bitcoin: Breaking Out to the Upside?

Sure looks that way to us as we tend to make investments based on the concept of “price channels.” When I take a snip from the website and toss my trend-channel view at things, it looks like the way is opening for a rally to north of $35,000 – but this is not investment advice!

What we can see in this chart is a way to count a rather odd 3, 4, and 5 that may have already completed.  If this is the case, this older count could already be obsolete.  The new counts might go like this:

(Continues below)


Here’s the other count – the one that argues it’s time to move higher with cryptos…

If this is the case, we expect the mainstream will begin to run bitcoin breaking trend stories (heading back up) in a week to three.  But, we shall see.

Turnaround Tuesday?

There’s one possibility – now that a .382 Fibonacci bounce for this “wave 2” was blown-through Monday:  That is that the market will hold for a close today not much higher than the .50 retracement level which I reckon to be around 25,009 on the Dow.

If we keep going up, I’ll hit my mandatory “seven-percent solution” and blow out of my short side trade.

What makes this a difficult market to process are the idiotic machinations of the Swamp Fight.   Let’s run  through some of them, starting with the “What the hell is (long-ago campaign aid) Sam Nunberg doing?” story.

Not that Nunberg matters, alone.  The anti-Trump left is also reveling in allegations from an eastern European (alleged) hooker who claims to have 16-hours of dirt on the Trump administration.

So, to line up the data as I study it:

  • Very liberal (easily “guilted”) socialist-leaners tend to be at the tops of very big investment firms.  Name “Soros” ring a bell? [related: Soros rejects claims by Slovak PM he interferes in Slovakia.]
  • Now we see globally that the US dollar is down.  But, this is paradoxical to global investors.  You see, a share of U.S. stock has something akin to “intrinsic value” such that when the dollar goes down in value the apparent price of stocks goes up.  This is for the simple reason that  it takes more paper (that’s worth less) to buy the same intrinsic value.
  • But the world is not sure how all this will play out.  Trump’s administration (which continuing to spend widely) is trying to restore some domestic production after the 40-year bend-over of globalists who robbed America of key industries like steel and autos.  Which is why (for the inattentive) Japan is #3 in global (nominal) GDP, for example while China is #2.  Where do our lifestyle major purchases come from (other than real estate)?
  • If you don’t look at The Statistical Times, you really ought to.  They not only report “nominal 2017 GDP” but they also correct for our favorite adjustment Purchasing Power Parity.  On this basis, they figure China is #1 in PPP GDP, we have already dropped to #2, while India is #3 and Japan #4.
  • Mexico economy minister says NAFTA must remain a trilateral accord.
  • Still, the world isn’t sure how the American Swamp Wars will work out, which explains, I think to a large degree, global uncertainty in markets.

That’s the high-level global view.  Now, let’s zoom-in on how crazy life is here in the asylum country, so to speak.

  • In over a year, the democrats have ONLY been able to indict for process crimes that predated Trump OR the Russians who will never face trial in America.
  • As if the Mueller fishing trip isn’t farcical enough, we now see him trying to subpoena every Trump campaign communication from eight people.
  • Meantime, we note, relative to the Sam Nunberg story that the (liberal) press is having such fun with, that the Trump-Nunberg relationship has been mercurial at best. From Wikipedia:

“In July 2016, Trump sued Nunberg for $10 million, accusing Nunberg of violating a confidentiality agreement by leaking information to the New York Post.[7] In a legal response, Nunberg said that Trump might have illegally funneled corporate money into the campaign.[8] Trump and Nunberg settled their legal dispute in August 2016.”

Not sure how that figures.

  • While CNN and others are positively giddy-sounding about the “hooker tapes” – real or imagined – we are concerned that at their core it’ll be prove impossible to base any prosecution on since 1) the reputed conversations were between non-US individuals and 2) it’s all third-party and therefore heresay as I understand law.
  • Meantime, though, we’re winding out from The Hill today that the “Australian diplomat whose tip prompted FBI’s Russia-probe has tie to Clintons.”  
  • It’s also important – when pondering the lack of a second special prosecutor (something that should have happened instantly) why stronger action hasn’t be taking by Justice.  But then we job security and promotion potential:  Think Succession to the Presidency which runs like this:

Vice President Mike Pence.
Speaker of the House Paul Ryan.
Senate President Pro Tempore Orrin Hatch.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.
Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin.
Secretary of Defense James Mattis.
Attorney General Jeff Sessions

With this, we see a way a president Pence and a vice-president Ryan and…oh, let’s not go there.

The NY Times headlines today exemplify the northeast bashing of Trump, though:

While I hold some respect for Krugman, I’d also have to point out that he wasn’t yelling and screaming so much when American jobs were being shipped overseas during the last 30-years.  It’s easy for people in modern times to read things like Krugman’s piece and ignore that the entire establishment economist block must share some responsibility for the USA now being #2 in the world basis PPP GDP.

It’s an inconvenient thing to mention, but we seem to be led (outside of the White House) by a nation of hacks and suck-ups…while somehow deluding ourselves that’s a winning approach.

Management Science suggests no, it’s not.

The problem since the Carter administration is Washington has had no effective leadership – just a cast of wannabe’s and power-driven all following in one-another’s footsteps.  That’s a nice way to say “circle jerk” but there you have it.

Since the market has gone up on the latest Nunberg and hooker claims, it will be interesting to see if Trump pulls out something that will really drop the markets:  Like the framework for a Middle East peace agreement.

Economics 101:  Peace is bad.  Very bad.  Especially for democrats.

The good news (for war mongers) is their pals – the Palestinians – are all set to reject whatever Trump tables.

The bad news for the war-lovers is North Korea Offers to Stop Nuclear and Missile Tests If the U.S. Sits Down for Talks.

Gosh, peace is bad…who’d have thought?

And so, as the sun rises over the asylum (country) hope builds for a continuation of global warfare, ensuring order in the Universe, will be maintained.  Stock’s hitting the 50% retracement today underscores the hype.

Which is why this might be a Turnaround Tuesday.

Or not.

Looking Ahead

Factory orders will be in at 10 this morning.  Tomorrow we begin the roll into Friday’s federal unemployment data.  We get a “nose” for that when reading The BTS Sales Index, a Predictive Monthly Metric for Business Leaders, Increases by Nearly 5% in March Update.

Here’s an interesting problem for the Trump administration:  Could the economy get so strong that we’d need to open up immigration a bit further just to contain wage-inflation pressures?   >  Check the job ads in Seattle, for example. <  Get back to me with analysis.

International trade and productivity costs tomorrow, as well.

For now, we watch and wait….while my shorts hurt.


Bitcoin: Breaking Out to the Upside? — 26 Comments

  1. I have reservations on tariffs. We definitely need domestic production, but adding 25% to the costs of domestic users of steel and aluminum seems to be a real problem for the economy. A one to five percent tariff might be acceptable if really necessary. Many items have their major cost in the raw materials.

    I heard from my steel roofing supplier that they are raising prices 17% because of the expected tariffs. I’ll be welding up some personal items and will probably have to pay much more for metal. This seems disproportionate. A better idea might be to give domestic producers a tax or other benefit of some sort to ramp up production until they meet some critical mass.

    Another personal concern is the potential blocking of many other items from China. This would be a disaster for any bleeding edge firm or individual that needed access to a great variety of specialized items. One percent nationalism is good, but like fire, it can grow without bound unless constrained.

  2. When we as a nation become divided down party lines, the way we read headlines gets skewed. We get defensive…and don’t look at the story behind the headline. There are some very biased news pieces on both sides. But overall, when it comes to Trump…you see more criticism because the guy deserves it.
    Years ago, my son was on a travel baseball team that had this talented kid that was being recruited by every college on the planet. The problem was…he was a horrible team mate. He bragged, created drama, berated not only his own team, but trashed talked the competition to the point of misery. But he could hit. The problem was, his braggadocio affected the overall teams performance in a negative way. The team was not winning. Eventually, the players had a team meeting with the coach and the coach ended up benching their superstar. The superstar was of course livid and quit the team and guess what, the team started winning. Colleges caught wind of the players attitude and one by one, most lost interest. He ended up not going to college and got drafted in the late rounds for little wry little money and is now out of baseball.
    This baseball player reminds me of Trump. He may have some good ideas, but is bad for morale. Trump gets bad press, because his delivery is contentious and his language of politics is horrible.

  3. The pedophile industry is so big from the top down that you’re not going to wipe it out overnight because if you have some great grandparents and they were doing it and they pass it down to their kids and then their kids and then the little ones soul it’s going to take a lot of restructuring many many years decades to get over this pedophile satanic ring like I said before it’s passed down from generation to generation and even if someone kind of opposes it that’s in the family structure they overlooked it an say well anyway.

    If you study or even look at throughout the world the way the pedophile industry happens and just pops up like some do this and some do that and the thousands of miles apart they may be a little bit different than what they’re doing but they’re still doing the same thing they’re in training the kids to do something and pass it down to their kids so this is not an easy subject to overcome it’s easier to turn your head with a blind eye but you know it’s so bad these people that are satanic take and put a baby on a table and strap the baby down and then they play music real real loud and they proceeded to eat the baby while still alive the music covering up the sounds that are handcuffed that have to watch this and this is their indoctrination to get into their Masonic Club.

    Now you know what the pizza gate pedophile things about it starts at the very top and works its way down with little babies little one and two year olds that are put on a a male’s lap while another kid is forced to watch this is insanity this will shock you this is the real world that you don’t get to see and this is the world that’s covering from the top down that’s why all the people in the government and the banking Industries have something over the people that judges who are corrupt because if you’re not corrupt they invite you out for a vacation and then they put something in your drink and then it take a couple kids and put down beside you and then your frame for the rest of your life and if you don’t vote the way they say vote on an item then they threaten you with those photos

    • Now you’re getting an idea what the swamp is really like and why president Trump said it’s worse than we ever thought it was

  4. Then for the main dish that everything mixes up with is the rice open a can of black olives and poor all that juice that’s in that can over the rice while you’re eating the olives then robafen slices of meat on the plate and the vegetables on top and on top of that is the rice and gently pull the olive juice on top of the rice and as it goes down and to the vegetables and the meat and mixes with all the other ingredients and spices that you’ve got now what you want to do as you sprinkle the juice you want to heavy saturate the middle that way it leaves the Outer Perimeter unsaturated so that you have a contrast and then next time you’ll know just how much it takes to deliver the most satisfying quest of your taste buds

    • And then to top it off for dessert which will be your coffee put four Frozen blueberries in there in two Frozen strawberries while you’re drinking your coffee and then when you get down every once in awhile slurping one of them blueberries when you get down to the bottom strawberries and blueberries ,
      did I mention I put honey and cinnamon and coconut oil and hazelnut in my coffee. And when I really need a good pick me upper I throw a green tea bag in there to mix with the coffee wow that’s an exceptional commodity if the timings right

      • Bryce, as a child, did you twirl around in circles until you were dizzy, one too many times?

  5. Reagan tripled the national debt. Since then, the Rs have been the party of ‘Borrow and Spend.’ Since the Rs had him sequestered, even O’s debt was overwhelmingly due to The Great Recession (less tax revenues in and more UI, food stamps, etc. out). Now the Rs (including Rand Paul!) just added another $1.5 trillion stimulus onto the debt at a time of effectively full employment. Mike.

  6. The progressive left is openly waging a classic ‘war of the minds’ against their collective opposition. Putin has nothing on these home grown psych warfare experts. That which is not ramrodded daily by the news media is allegorically represented in the arts and the theater, softening the multitude of minds undergoing conditioning in agnostic, homogenized public educations system. Furthermore, social media is not free speech – the proprietor can black list anyone without recourse if they disagree with certain views. Orchestrated social media mass shaming against non-conformists is no different that the punishment inflicted by the Puritans in Nathaniel Hawthorne’s ‘The Scarlet Letter,’ where differences of opinion and belief were categorized as sin with ample supplies of guilt and shame provided. We are arguably all being conditioned to feel guilty, to conform and to comply as the shadowy global order marches humanity toward its new and brighter future. Trump threw a nasty wrench into that scripted utopian plan – for how much longer remains to be seen. As the Borg on Star Trek Next Generation are fond of saying, “prepare to be assimilated!”

  7. Did you notice that Sam Nunberg is dumb as a doorknob, just like Trump? The only person in Trumps circle who is dumber then Nunberg is Carter Page. I can’t figure out how all these really stupid people got to the White House. It’s not just these three, it’s all of them, like a comedy of idiots. At first I thought maybe Trump was the Anti-Christ, but I never knew the Anti-Christ was going to be so stupid! Maybe I’m wrong, I googled is the Anti-Christ stupid? and Trumps name came up. Go figure.

  8. I am not so sure that Trump is draining the swamp at all. I think he is adding another impenetrable layer to it. I listened to Wilbur Ross on TV the other day, defending the tariffs. He brought out a can of Campbell soup that he bought at the local 7-11. He explained that the tariff would add only a fraction of a penny to the cost of that product…But here is the disconnect…
    I thought the purpose of the tariffs were to discourage manufacturers to buy foreign aluminum and steel and prop up the American sourced manufacturing? Ross’s visual explanation basically was an endorsement for business as usual. While the tariffs level the playing field, domestic companies can continue to use foreign steel and aluminum…because as he stated, it only adds a fraction of a penny to the costs.
    In fact, they may need to continue to source aluminum and steel overseas if they have a reciprocal arrangement to buy those American finished products like Campbell soup, American made cars, and continued investment in American real estate development.
    Another disconnect for me is that why are all…and I mean all media outlets challenging Trump…except Fox News? Those NY Times headlines aren’t really bashing. To say that Trump is not backing down on tariffs while GOP pushes back…is a true statement. That is actually happening. It is not a bash. Neither is the headline about the Middle East. Trump isn’t neutral. He is backing Israel all the way. Which is fine…except he has stated many times he is neutral.

    • Number one Trump is not in control he is being manufactured now from the amendment 28 with certain people have been assigned and that person has been assigned and then another person has been assigned under that person the military and Trump is following me orders.
      Your orders are to take back our country from and internal but foreign source which is the bankers which is the Illuminati which is the religious order and the English Darlene all those are any of these corporations they know if they don’t play the money from every country in around the world even in China and they are bankrupt to United States which means our debts are going to be forgiven so you may think this is wild and beyond your imagination but you won’t hear about this until months after it has already happened and it has happened it’s happening right now it’s already happened last month or last 2 months we are planes and went down over Mexico and low in Mexico wiped out all the gangs and wiped out MS-13 wiped out all the Opium fields and at the same time Ecuador Pat is being infiltrated by the Venezuela and going throughout the South America so what’s happening so the United States has threatened Every Nation on this Earth and we’ve created a new International Bank of America and all of the Monies have gone into that another words like he said president president Trump said hey we’re going to collect and we have we’ve closed down every country that we’ve helped now John is broke Russia’s broke England broke you name every country the broke Saudi Arabia now we have the money in our pocket because we dominate the world electronically and physically so what are you got to say to that

      • There is only one faction of the Illuminati that’s left standing and you can guess what’s going to happen to them

  9. Ronald Reagan had a plan and stuck to it. Deregulation and creating a credible deterrent. He wanted to win the Cold War. He did.

    GHWB also had foreign policy objectives and carried them out. On domestic policy he had a very clear plan as well. “Read my lips; no new taxes.” I am convinced that if he kept that promise he would have gotten a second term……….Imagine no Clinton’s.

    • Hmm seems to me Reagan Bush and the Clinton’s were all cut out of the same cloth,in the first place the fallacy that we won the cold war,which of course was an internal decision on Russia’s part not ours,Star Wars which ran the debt to the moon,come to Washington and let us show you how to move your jobs out of the country and increase your profit or outsourcing as it became known by,old Bush and the NAFTA which sucked the jobs south of the border,yep they sure had a plan alright and the millions unemployed prove it…

  10. So if the oil business is going to really be booming in 2020 that’s about the time that the cryptocurrencies will fade down from their Skyrocket, as predicted by others

  11. I sincerely hope that US America is not involved with the loss of the Russian airplane. Why must I even think about such things ?

  12. I could be wrong but Pence becoming Prez does not automatically make Ryan VP. Ford was promoted from Speaker to VP, but that was not required by law, it was merely politically palatable to the Dems who voted to approve him. When Ford became Prez his VP was not the new House Speaker but Rockefeller, I believe.

    The rules of succession are for one or more layers being knocked out by health or war.

    • When Gerald Ford became President, Carl Albert (D-Oklahoma) was speaker. Do you really think Ford, a Republican, would choose a Democrat as his VP?

      • No I don’t believe that, but that’s my point, it’s not required to take the Speaker to fill a VP vacancy.

  13. It appears that every time Trump takes a bite out of the swamp the markets go down so I think sometime during this year he’s going to take a big bite an the markets are going to really drop down low but will recuperate and hit Sky High sounds logical. What is your probable thoughts of the future

    • The Bitcoin volume looks small but tomorrow or thursday I’m going to put 50 more dollars in Litecoin and watch the volume go up.