Sure looks that way to us as we tend to make investments based on the concept of “price channels.” When I take a snip from the website and toss my trend-channel view at things, it looks like the way is opening for a rally to north of $35,000 – but this is not investment advice!

What we can see in this chart is a way to count a rather odd 3, 4, and 5 that may have already completed.  If this is the case, this older count could already be obsolete.  The new counts might go like this:

(Continues below)


Here’s the other count – the one that argues it’s time to move higher with cryptos…

If this is the case, we expect the mainstream will begin to run bitcoin breaking trend stories (heading back up) in a week to three.  But, we shall see.

Turnaround Tuesday?

There’s one possibility – now that a .382 Fibonacci bounce for this “wave 2” was blown-through Monday:  That is that the market will hold for a close today not much higher than the .50 retracement level which I reckon to be around 25,009 on the Dow.

If we keep going up, I’ll hit my mandatory “seven-percent solution” and blow out of my short side trade.

What makes this a difficult market to process are the idiotic machinations of the Swamp Fight.   Let’s run  through some of them, starting with the “What the hell is (long-ago campaign aid) Sam Nunberg doing?” story.

Not that Nunberg matters, alone.  The anti-Trump left is also reveling in allegations from an eastern European (alleged) hooker who claims to have 16-hours of dirt on the Trump administration.

So, to line up the data as I study it:

  • Very liberal (easily “guilted”) socialist-leaners tend to be at the tops of very big investment firms.  Name “Soros” ring a bell? [related: Soros rejects claims by Slovak PM he interferes in Slovakia.]
  • Now we see globally that the US dollar is down.  But, this is paradoxical to global investors.  You see, a share of U.S. stock has something akin to “intrinsic value” such that when the dollar goes down in value the apparent price of stocks goes up.  This is for the simple reason that  it takes more paper (that’s worth less) to buy the same intrinsic value.
  • But the world is not sure how all this will play out.  Trump’s administration (which continuing to spend widely) is trying to restore some domestic production after the 40-year bend-over of globalists who robbed America of key industries like steel and autos.  Which is why (for the inattentive) Japan is #3 in global (nominal) GDP, for example while China is #2.  Where do our lifestyle major purchases come from (other than real estate)?
  • If you don’t look at The Statistical Times, you really ought to.  They not only report “nominal 2017 GDP” but they also correct for our favorite adjustment Purchasing Power Parity.  On this basis, they figure China is #1 in PPP GDP, we have already dropped to #2, while India is #3 and Japan #4.
  • Mexico economy minister says NAFTA must remain a trilateral accord.
  • Still, the world isn’t sure how the American Swamp Wars will work out, which explains, I think to a large degree, global uncertainty in markets.

That’s the high-level global view.  Now, let’s zoom-in on how crazy life is here in the asylum country, so to speak.

  • In over a year, the democrats have ONLY been able to indict for process crimes that predated Trump OR the Russians who will never face trial in America.
  • As if the Mueller fishing trip isn’t farcical enough, we now see him trying to subpoena every Trump campaign communication from eight people.
  • Meantime, we note, relative to the Sam Nunberg story that the (liberal) press is having such fun with, that the Trump-Nunberg relationship has been mercurial at best. From Wikipedia:

“In July 2016, Trump sued Nunberg for $10 million, accusing Nunberg of violating a confidentiality agreement by leaking information to the New York Post.[7] In a legal response, Nunberg said that Trump might have illegally funneled corporate money into the campaign.[8] Trump and Nunberg settled their legal dispute in August 2016.”

Not sure how that figures.

  • While CNN and others are positively giddy-sounding about the “hooker tapes” – real or imagined – we are concerned that at their core it’ll be prove impossible to base any prosecution on since 1) the reputed conversations were between non-US individuals and 2) it’s all third-party and therefore heresay as I understand law.
  • Meantime, though, we’re winding out from The Hill today that the “Australian diplomat whose tip prompted FBI’s Russia-probe has tie to Clintons.”  
  • It’s also important – when pondering the lack of a second special prosecutor (something that should have happened instantly) why stronger action hasn’t be taking by Justice.  But then we job security and promotion potential:  Think Succession to the Presidency which runs like this:

Vice President Mike Pence.
Speaker of the House Paul Ryan.
Senate President Pro Tempore Orrin Hatch.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.
Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin.
Secretary of Defense James Mattis.
Attorney General Jeff Sessions

With this, we see a way a president Pence and a vice-president Ryan and…oh, let’s not go there.

The NY Times headlines today exemplify the northeast bashing of Trump, though:

While I hold some respect for Krugman, I’d also have to point out that he wasn’t yelling and screaming so much when American jobs were being shipped overseas during the last 30-years.  It’s easy for people in modern times to read things like Krugman’s piece and ignore that the entire establishment economist block must share some responsibility for the USA now being #2 in the world basis PPP GDP.

It’s an inconvenient thing to mention, but we seem to be led (outside of the White House) by a nation of hacks and suck-ups…while somehow deluding ourselves that’s a winning approach.

Management Science suggests no, it’s not.

The problem since the Carter administration is Washington has had no effective leadership – just a cast of wannabe’s and power-driven all following in one-another’s footsteps.  That’s a nice way to say “circle jerk” but there you have it.

Since the market has gone up on the latest Nunberg and hooker claims, it will be interesting to see if Trump pulls out something that will really drop the markets:  Like the framework for a Middle East peace agreement.

Economics 101:  Peace is bad.  Very bad.  Especially for democrats.

The good news (for war mongers) is their pals – the Palestinians – are all set to reject whatever Trump tables.

The bad news for the war-lovers is North Korea Offers to Stop Nuclear and Missile Tests If the U.S. Sits Down for Talks.

Gosh, peace is bad…who’d have thought?

And so, as the sun rises over the asylum (country) hope builds for a continuation of global warfare, ensuring order in the Universe, will be maintained.  Stock’s hitting the 50% retracement today underscores the hype.

Which is why this might be a Turnaround Tuesday.

Or not.

Looking Ahead

Factory orders will be in at 10 this morning.  Tomorrow we begin the roll into Friday’s federal unemployment data.  We get a “nose” for that when reading The BTS Sales Index, a Predictive Monthly Metric for Business Leaders, Increases by Nearly 5% in March Update.

Here’s an interesting problem for the Trump administration:  Could the economy get so strong that we’d need to open up immigration a bit further just to contain wage-inflation pressures?   >  Check the job ads in Seattle, for example. <  Get back to me with analysis.

International trade and productivity costs tomorrow, as well.

For now, we watch and wait….while my shorts hurt.