Carry Trade Collapse II?

Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed at 35,025.00 overnight. And we would not be surprised to see a bit of rally early this morning ahead of the weekend. But it’s what happens over the weekend that promises to be interesting. As you know, the Bank of Japan recently raised its interest rate.  Wasn’t a lot, but it was … Read More

Pac-Plate Dance, Running Out of Terror,? Wobbly Markts

The Pacific Plate is dancing again.  As many of our readers have been experiencing the “earthquake tireds” over the past week, or two, along comes a 7.1 quake in Japan to fill expectations: We have mentioned that recent activity off the West Coast, in particular off the coast of Washington/British Columbia has fall back into … Read More

Anti-Aging Book Preview

ere we are, a few thousand points lower, and what’s George got to show for it?  A new book? May sound odd, but I really love to write and getting into the “writing trance” is really good for me.  Stresses of life just fade away and a new story unfolds. There is already one book in … Read More

Markets Pause (Rally?) – Engineered Spending

The beginning of Mercury Retrograde was a grand turning point.  The market began to “bounce back” and troubled Japan gained back more than 10 percent of their more than 12 percent loss previously. Gold was set to pop a bit silver was about flat. Copper has done OK (war is still coming) and lumber prices … Read More

Clone of ’29: Circuit Breaker Monday?

We have been in such a Bubble, for so long, that no one seems to appreciate how close to a 1929 style Collapse we are likely skirting.  And if may have everything to do with the growing risk of global war. Which the Powers that Be hold as an ace card to be played when their … Read More

ShopTalk Sunday: Retrograde School, Purple, and ‘Puter

The end of my Personal Retrograde Hell ended about 12:45 PM Sunday.  That’s when the new minicomputer began to function perfectly.  Not a big deal? This is a tale about Mercury Retrograde.  Retrograde means that if you’re outside and closely watching the night sky, the apparent motion of the planet Mercury seems to reverse and go backwards … Read More

Widows, Orphans, and Computers

A funny thing happened this week as we busted through one of our long-expected trend channels.  What’s more, we are just at our 85-day/17-week moving average which – back tested to 1998, has been a reasonable alternative to the (more conventional) 50DMA ore the 100DMA trading indicators. The computer part is woven in because this … Read More

Markets Pile on Bad News

Have a look at the critical support top of the trend channel now that we are more than an hour into today’s session: A couple of ways this could play out: A reverse higher bounce off the trend line. But we could also sink under, then come up to the trend top and fall apart. The … Read More

Three Things that Matter: Jobs, Markets, Weather

“Oh, dear, what can the matter be?”  Gotta minute? You may not realize it, but this is a common nursery rhyme (and round) which was drilled into the group socialization process back when many of us “Boomers or sometwhere in there) people were growing up.  Sayeth Wikipedia: “Oh, Dear! What Can the Matter Be?“, also known … Read More

Politics: Excellence Lost, Post Fed Date

In case you were under a rock, the key part of the Fed decision Wednesday afternoon was: “In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee … Read More

Carry Trade Dynamics, Farm School (2)

Japan’s Central Bank has decided to raise rates – which is almost certain to press on U.S. markets – higher.  Along with this we offer another chapter in “Farm School” which we hope you will find both entertaining and educational. Next, toss in the usual 18 charts on markets from the perspective of our proprietary … Read More

Debt Passes $35,001,278,179,208.67 – Housing Zooms

Two big items.  First is the National Debt as measured by the U.S. Treasury peeked over $35 trillion today:  $35,001,278,179,208.67 With this much debt sloshing, what do you think the Case-Shiller Housing data showed? YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.9% annual … Read More

Today We Enter the Funhouse

A bit of “color” to set the mood for the balance of the week.  We have – as the day progresses – entered a Global Funhouse.  Of course, the local “opening time” depends on your Time Zone.  Like in Japan, the Bank of Japan rate confab (funding trillions in Japan-Yen Carry-Trades), is already meeting.  (Cultural … Read More