We ought to begin with the federal jobs report, first thing. We expected that the market would bounce around a bit in here, but honestly it has been quite the week so far. In fact, at the close Thursday, the volatility index (VIX) was at 24.65 which is a far cry from the 15’s where it … Read More
There are about four – kinda separate – stories that have us paying attention today. Let’s start with the Challenger Job Cuts report just out: “U.S.-based employers announced 172,017 job cuts in February, the highest total for the month since 2009 when 186,350 job cuts were recorded. It is the highest monthly total since July … Read More
Although sometimes labeled a “perma-bear” there are times when we actually do like the long side of things. Not so much because of the State of the Union (yawns). But because of technical indicators which we will go over in today’s ChartPack. Then there’s the non-trivial matter of Downsizing – my latest book which I … Read More
I suppose we should begin with the Falling Markets part. Because we have been tracking America’s lurch toward a Second ’29 for a couple of decades. A current (through early Futures today) looks (how to say this?) less than stellar… Going into tonight’s State of the Onion, let’s see how the Replay of 1929 is evolving: … Read More
We don’t expect a lot of fireworks today. A fine day to finish writing a new chapter of my next book, Downsizing, which is being serialized on the Peoplenomics.com site for subscribers. Along with the charts and so forth and such-not. With showers moving through Texas and a mid-week cold snap, we have a brief reprieve before … Read More
Where to begin? Well, those radio tubes from 50-miles away – misdirected by the USPS Coppell mail and storage place to Arizona and God-knows where today… still isn’t here. But 8 days now to go 50 miles is damn near walking speed. Which left time for plumbing. When Our Hero Last Reported… The high-use faucet … Read More
The first few minutes is bullshit, but block three hours for some serious reality. And when Musk out propaganda by networks, go look for the words “Putinization” and “rickroll” in the news flow on co-opted media this weekend… -ure
Two parts to it: The rolling news part and the ChartPack part as the markets hedge. It’s not a long discussion per se. Doesn’t need to be. But this being the weekend, and with the odds of Spring ahead this month, the gloom of winter is passing. Until Monday, at least More for Subscribers ||| … Read More
The Real World Order is coming out of the shadows. The evidence is mounting around us: A variant of “civil war” may be unfolding before us. A “War Behind the Headlines” spectacle? Well, why not? Everything else has been virtualized, right? Consider – as just one example – Wall Street Apes on X: “The problem has … Read More
Might as well get the GDP numbers out of the way first: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the second estimate. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily … Read More
OK, so Europe struggles to put its “big boy pants’ on while the Deep State goes to war on Musk. Toss in nearly two dozen charts (and how to look at them as “snow stakes” in wintery mountains) and a grand time will be had by all. Well, except people trying to make it big … Read More
AI bubble ending is one thing but the housing situation? Well, gets interesting, doesn’t it? “YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.9% annual return for December, up from a 3.7% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual … Read More
Really, really bad, to answer the rhetorical question. I won’t call it a “breakthrough” but we have been using our Ebbinghaus-Ure Model to good effect with the market decline gathering speed now. Last week, I was warning you (go ahead and look at the chart) that a “convergence of averages” can sometimes spell Big Change. … Read More